UAE "5th Gen" Rafale?

[Waylander]

Well the 300km maximum range of the Black Shaheen is still much better than anything the US is willing to sell them.

Right now it looks like the Gulf States only get JDAMs from the US. A 300km Storm Shadow derivate is in a different league and offers way more capabilities.

 

[swerve]

UAE are intending to replace their M2k-9 aircraft. They have been discussing Rafale with Dassault, but are now openly speaking of Super Hornet. If you don't care for the idea fair enough, but it's a bit rich to be commenting on the validity of what the UAE nows says it's requirements are based on what they WERE when they acquired the M2k in the first place...

I am aware that the US did refuse to provide standoff weapons to the UAE a while back, but I'd be careful in stating what isand isn't the case today. Several other Gulf nations have now introduced standoff weapons capabilities and introducing a modern US standoff weapon would hardly 'upset the regional balance' as it might have 10-15 years ago...

"A bit rich"? Other people have been commenting freely on the validity of UAE choices, including you. All I'm doing is reminding people of what keeps being ignored by some posters, which is that there is a damn good military reason for the UAE wanting to buy a non-US aircraft, a reason which was a large part of the justification for the UAE spending billions of dollars not very long ago, & which, until someone comes up with evidence to the contrary (& nobody has, yet), is still valid. Any discussion of possible UAE purchases should refer to it, because without such a reference, the discussion is incomplete. It's one of those things our transatlantic allies (trans-Pacific for you) refer to as 'an elephant in the room'. Any serious comment either has to explain why it has ceased to matter, or at least ask if it has. Pretending it isn't there isn't a sustainable position.

I've not heard of any Gulf state being allowed to buy a US-built equivalent of Black Shaheen, or being allowed to fit any similar non-US weapon to a US-built aircraft. None of the US stand-off weapons sold or offered to Gulf states is in the same league as Black Shaheen. Upgraded Saudi Tornadoes have been seen conducting test flights in the UK with Storm Shadow, but note the country of origin of both aircraft & weapon.

 

[jtm]

I totally agree with Swerve. I'm gonna say again what i've stated earlier : there is no reliable information proving the UAE is willing to change.

You all know how this work, a UAE official makes a statement between two meetings and says the [Country#1] plane is too expensive, even if they were willing to pay the price 2 months ago. So they say they will contact a company from [Country#2] to see if they can get a better deal. In reality, they just want to put pressure on [country#1] with which, btw, they have been bilateraly discussing for 4 years on this particular deal.

In the UAE Rafale deal, the tech spec step is over for months, and the discussion is now all about the price of every upgrade the UAE wants for the plane. I can't imagine they would go through the whole process for the SH, starting from scratch with the RFI as said by the article.

I feel like some contributors here want the Rafale to fail so bad that they don't see that this is a no story, and that this article is just disinformation, the oldest trick in the book...

 

[Aussie Digger]

"A bit rich"? Other people have been commenting freely on the validity of UAE choices, including you. All I'm doing is reminding people of what keeps being ignored by some posters, which is that there is a damn good military reason for the UAE wanting to buy a non-US aircraft, a reason which was a large part of the justification for the UAE spending billions of dollars not very long ago, & which, until someone comes up with evidence to the contrary (& nobody has, yet), is still valid. Any discussion of possible UAE purchases should refer to it, because without such a reference, the discussion is incomplete. It's one of those things our transatlantic allies (trans-Pacific for you) refer to as 'an elephant in the room'. Any serious comment either has to explain why it has ceased to matter, or at least ask if it has. Pretending it isn't there isn't a sustainable position.

Again, that was the case. I've never denied that. You've hardly shown that it remains the case, nor will be in the future however and if the report IS correct that UAE are seeking 'technical information' in relation to the Super Hornet, they are hardly likely to seriously pursue such an option, unless they CAN adequately replace their Black Shaheen/ M2K capability.

I'd suggest we'll see a DSCA announcement in the very near future about this very issue. Then we will know what is and isn't on the table. Personally I'd suggest that JSOW and SLAM-ER at the lesst will be available for UAE, given they've already been exported to the wider Middle East region...

I've not heard of any Gulf state being allowed to buy a US-built equivalent of Black Shaheen, or being allowed to fit any similar non-US weapon to a US-built aircraft. None of the US stand-off weapons sold or offered to Gulf states is in the same league as Black Shaheen. Upgraded Saudi Tornadoes have been seen conducting test flights in the UK with Storm Shadow, but note the country of origin of both aircraft & weapon.

Apologies, I meant the wider Region, rather than the Gulf. My fault for posting from an Iphone...

However, the US stance on delivering weapons with advanced capabilities, seems to be largely based on the perceived 'regional balance' in terms of known arms transfers. So why I state it is dangerous to assert something as fact, when the information you are basing your opinion on is more than ten years old is because of this statement.

Since the UAE have acquired the Black Shaheen standoff missile and French BVR air to air missile capabilities, their own access to advanced US weapons has increased significantly. UAE has since been sold Harpoon Block II and the ATACMS ballistic missile system as well as advanced AMRAAM, air defence weapon systems and modern JDAM/ EGBU Paveway weapons. Other regional standoff weapons capabilities now include:

Saudi Arabia - Storm Shadow, Harpoon Block II.

Bahrain - ATACMS.

Egypt - Harpoon Block II.

Turkey - Harpoon Block II, SLAM-ER, JSOW, ATACMS.

Israel - Harpoon Block II, Popeye AGM, SDB 1 etc.

Iran - C-704, C-802 air to surface missiles.

Given the recent, yet increasing proliference of air to surface weapons capabilities in the Middle East, I think it a brave statement to argue that the US is and will continue to 'flatly deny' the sale of such weapons and therefore a Super Hornet purchase is nothing more than 'smoke and Mirrors'.

Other recent prospective Super Hornet buyers have been offered JSOW and SLAM-ER. I'd suggest the USA would be downright foolish not to offer the same for any UAE acquisition...

 

[Aussie Digger]

I totally agree with Swerve. I'm gonna say again what i've stated earlier : there is no reliable information proving the UAE is willing to change.

You all know how this work, a UAE official makes a statement between two meetings and says the [Country#1] plane is too expensive, even if they were willing to pay the price 2 months ago. So they say they will contact a company from [Country#2] to see if they can get a better deal. In reality, they just want to put pressure on [country#1] with which, btw, they have been bilateraly discussing for 4 years on this particular deal.

In the UAE Rafale deal, the tech spec step is over for months, and the discussion is now all about the price of every upgrade the UAE wants for the plane. I can't imagine they would go through the whole process for the SH, starting from scratch with the RFI as said by the article.

I feel like some contributors here want the Rafale to fail so bad that they don't see that this is a no story, and that this article is just disinformation, the oldest trick in the book...

Eurofighter was a done deal in Oman too, wasn't it? All that remained was the contract signature...

http://www.dsca.mil/PressReleases/36-b/2010/Oman_10-40.pdf

Oops...

 

[jack412]

there seems to be a few hickups at the moment
Feb. 16, 2010
Emirates throw wrench in Dassault works - UPI.com
Abu Dhabi has thrown a wrench in the works by demanding that the Rafales be armed with Boeing's SLAM ER/2 missile instead of the European-made MBDA AM-39 they are fitted to carry.

Adapting the Rafale to carry SLAMs would present technical difficulties and would cut out MBDA, a British-German-French-Italian missile consortium, of any contract Dassault may negotiate.

But given the pressing need for the French government, as well as Dassault, to sign their first foreign customer for the aircraft they would likely go along with Abu Dhabi's wishes if that was what it took to get the emirates on board

 

[jtm]

Eurofighter was a done deal in Oman too, wasn't it? All that remained was the contract signature...

I didn't say the Rafale is a done deal. I said there is nothing in this article that makes me believe the UAE are gonna change their plans, and that i thought this was a blow of smoke.

there seems to be a few hickups at the moment
Feb. 16, 2010
Emirates throw wrench in Dassault works - UPI.com
Abu Dhabi has thrown a wrench in the works by demanding that the Rafales be armed with Boeing's SLAM ER/2 missile instead of the European-made MBDA AM-39 they are fitted to carry.

Adapting the Rafale to carry SLAMs would present technical difficulties and would cut out MBDA, a British-German-French-Italian missile consortium, of any contract Dassault may negotiate.

But given the pressing need for the French government, as well as Dassault, to sign their first foreign customer for the aircraft they would likely go along with Abu Dhabi's wishes if that was what it took to get the emirates on board

This is quite old, but indeed there has been problems with the missiles. But the UAE are now sure that France will pay for half of whatever upgrade they might want. French DGA (Weapons Procurement Department) could even pay and test for the integration of the harpoons the UAE already have, on the french planes, even if the French will never buy Harpoons. That's how desperate they are. MBDA is EADS, and has nothing to do with the Rafale GIE (Dassault Aviation 37% Thalès 37% Safran 28%).
The French will close a deal for Dassault (who's a Sarkozy's close friend), even if it means pissing off MBDA.

 

[Aussie Digger]

there seems to be a few hickups at the moment
Feb. 16, 2010
Emirates throw wrench in Dassault works - UPI.com
Abu Dhabi has thrown a wrench in the works by demanding that the Rafales be armed with Boeing's SLAM ER/2 missile instead of the European-made MBDA AM-39 they are fitted to carry.

Adapting the Rafale to carry SLAMs would present technical difficulties and would cut out MBDA, a British-German-French-Italian missile consortium, of any contract Dassault may negotiate.

But given the pressing need for the French government, as well as Dassault, to sign their first foreign customer for the aircraft they would likely go along with Abu Dhabi's wishes if that was what it took to get the emirates on board

That would seem to imply that the UAE has been granted access to certain US standoff missiles...

 

[jack412]

it does, doesnt it, but slam-er is a 2 way data link and rafale is only a 1 way
i cant see usa giving the codes to france to fit the slam either, so it would be france to give the codes to uae and a uae and usa to fit
i see it as rafale isnt that much different than it was 6 years ago and there is the problem

@ jtm france dont want to finance, dassault dont want to finance, i dont know about thales or snecma, but no one seems to be offering money

 

[gf0012-aust]

That would seem to imply that the UAE has been granted access to certain US standoff missiles...

the interesting twist to this is whether the UAE pick a platform that takes utilises Link16 etc.....

it makes integration and interoperability easier because it won't cost the UAE money to provide the relevant API;s and software objects to talk across systems...

although the French use Link16 (licensed), they' could be charging over and above for the intrgration, something that they could more easily negotiate down with the US.

OTOH, the French Govt does want the sale, so they've demonstrated with other countries a willingness to go cost neg if not neutral.

 

[swerve]

However, the US stance on delivering weapons with advanced capabilities, seems to be largely based on the perceived 'regional balance' in terms of known arms transfers....

Since the UAE have acquired the Black Shaheen standoff missile and French BVR air to air missile capabilities, their own access to advanced US weapons has increased significantly. UAE has since been sold Harpoon Block II and the ATACMS ballistic missile system as well as advanced AMRAAM, air defence weapon systems and modern JDAM/ EGBU Paveway weapons. Other regional standoff weapons capabilities now include:

Saudi Arabia - Storm Shadow, Harpoon Block II.

Bahrain - ATACMS.

Egypt - Harpoon Block II.

Turkey - Harpoon Block II, SLAM-ER, JSOW, ATACMS.

Israel - Harpoon Block II, Popeye AGM, SDB 1 etc.

Iran - C-704, C-802 air to surface missiles.

Given the recent, yet increasing proliference of air to surface weapons capabilities in the Middle East, I think it a brave statement to argue that the US is and will continue to 'flatly deny' the sale of such weapons and therefore a Super Hornet purchase is nothing more than 'smoke and Mirrors'.

Other recent prospective Super Hornet buyers have been offered JSOW and SLAM-ER. I'd suggest the USA would be downright foolish not to offer the same for any UAE acquisition...

We shoud consider who has received what & from who. Israel has Popeye - well, it's an Israeli weapon, so that doesn't tell us anything about US export policy, & in any case, isn't in the same class as Black Shaheen. Nor are any of the weapons you list, except Storm Shadow, & perhaps SLAM-ER. The last has been sold only to Turkey, which is a NATO member, & therefore in a different category to the UAE, Bahrain, etc.

Regional balance, yes, but the USA does not apply the same rules to every country. NATO countries, for example, are not usually taken into account when assessing the balance, & they (& some other close allies, e.g. Australia) are allowed to buy what other countries in similar or worse situations aren't. E.g. Finland was not allowed to buy JASSM in 2007, although it has a potentially hostile neighbour armed with everything under the sun, but JASSM was offered to Spain (which preferred Taurus). Morocco is not allowed any comparable missile, regardless of what Spain has. And so on.

It could be that the UAE is using Rafale as a lever to try to get permission to buy longer-range stand-off weapons from the USA, & F-18E to get better terms on Rafale from France, & maybe a 2-way datalink added to Black Shaheen (already studied, not a major development). We'll have to wait & see.

 

[Vivendi]

ST. LOUIS, Sept. 30, 2009 -- The Boeing [NYSE: BA] Standoff Land Attack Missile Expanded Response (SLAM ER) missile system recently reached two program milestones -- the first launch from an F-16 aircraft and the 100th missile launch. Both flights took place at the U.S. Naval Air Weapons Station in China Lake, Calif.

SLAM ER is a highly adaptable day and night, all-weather, over-the-horizon precision strike missile capable of hitting stationary or moving targets on land or at sea. It can be launched from safe standoff ranges of more than 150 nautical miles and is the Navy’s weapon of choice for surgical strikes against high-value land targets and ships in port and at sea. The missile is fully integrated onto F/A-18A+/C/D/E/F, F-15K, P-3C and S-3B aircraft. It now has been demonstrated on the F-16E/F and is currently being integrated onto P-8A and F-16C/D.

Boeing: Boeing SLAM ER Missile System Achieves 2 Launch Milestones

Unless they were doing the test just for fun, one should perhaps not discount the possibility of SLAM/ER actually being integrated on the F-16E/F (block 60). And to my knowledge there is currently just one country that operates the F-16 bl. 60...

150 nm is approx. 280 km. According to some sources the SLAM/ER warhead is 500 pounds (227 kg); roughly half the size of the Black Shaheen warhead (450 kg).

 

[Aussie Digger]

the interesting twist to this is whether the UAE pick a platform that takes utilises Link16 etc.....

it makes integration and interoperability easier because it won't cost the UAE money to provide the relevant API;s and software objects to talk across systems...

although the French use Link16 (licensed), they' could be charging over and above for the intrgration, something that they could more easily negotiate down with the US.

OTOH, the French Govt does want the sale, so they've demonstrated with other countries a willingness to go cost neg if not neutral.

They've already acquired MIDS-LVT terminals as part of their Patriot/THAAD/SL-AMRAAM/Stinger air defence system and I'd bet they have the capability on their Block 60 F-16's, it's not so certain that the MK2's have it, but Shornets would fit very neatly into such an evolving construct. Rafales...

Plus they'll avoid all those messy integration efforts, so beloved of Industry, but so hated by operators...

 

[jtm]

The French AF Rafales already use Link 16 (the plane has been designed to fully integrate with NATO). So there is no integration problem for UAE potential Rafales. What would the SH bring to the table the Rafale can't do in this matter ?

 

[Aussie Digger]

The French AF Rafales already use Link 16 (the plane has been designed to fully integrate with NATO). So there is no integration problem for UAE potential Rafales. What would the SH bring to the table the Rafale can't do in this matter ?

AMRAAM and associated equipment....

 

[jtm]

AMRAAM and associated equipment....

True, but i guess AMRAAM integration wouldn't be much of a problem (with US agreement). The Rafale is supposed to be armed with METEOR in France, and both missiles are roughly the same size, so no weight of size problems to be expected here.

France could well pay for AMRAAM integration AND give up a bunch of Meteor for free if that's what it takes so seal the deal (It's been said and written quite a lot that the UAE really want Meteors)

 

[Aussie Digger]

True, but i guess AMRAAM integration wouldn't be much of a problem (with US agreement). The Rafale is supposed to be armed with METEOR in France, and both missiles are roughly the same size, so no weight of size problems to be expected here.

France could well pay for AMRAAM integration AND give up a bunch of Meteor for free if that's what it takes so seal the deal (It's been said and written quite a lot that the UAE really want Meteors)

BVR missile integration is not such an easy thing. You are talking for a start about 5 years work and several hundred millions of dollars expended...

Aerodynamic tests, fit, safe separation and captive carry are some of the basics. Radar, EW and data-link mods, plus pylon and rail/racks (MER's etc) and software mods are the far greater part of the puzzle and are a very substantial effort, it is not something that a country is going to undertake on a whim...

 

[Vivendi]

AMRAAM and associated equipment....

I am puzzled why you mention AMRAAM specifically. Rafale will get the Meteor (first test with Meteor on Rafale was conducted in 2005) and the Meteor is capability-wise very competitive with the AMRAAM.

I think it's more the whole package; according to the leaks the SH was considered to have the required technology level already whereas the Rafale would need a substantial upgrade to meet those requirements. One example is the Rafale AESA radar; lacking in range but also in radar modes. And it seems that increasing the radar range could have some unwanted side-effects on e.g. the SPECTRA system which may increase cost and development time.

I am wondering if time is more of an issue than actual money; consider for instance that they bought Erieyes from Sweden; my understanding was that they chose this solution because it can be implemented immediately wheras other solutions would take longer to materialize (Wedgetail?) .

Seems they are in a hurry to upgrade their capabilities.

In such a setting the SH may suddenly seem much more attractive than the Rafale since it can probably can be delivered rather quickly whereas the Rafale will require years of development before it will meet the UAE requirements.

 

[gf0012-aust]

The French AF Rafales already use Link 16 (the plane has been designed to fully integrate with NATO). So there is no integration problem for UAE potential Rafales. What would the SH bring to the table the Rafale can't do in this matter ?

They are licensed for their own Rafales, putting it on en export means they have to pay for the privilege.

they're sunk the cost on their own assets, they are not sunk costs on any that they export that require the fitout.


its less of a hurdle for the US immediately - with any US produict. to whit. Shornet and Wedgetail. For the US its an ITARs negotiation - that has already been passed for other assets in UAE service.

 

[Vivendi]

1. Radar can of course be upgraded but the article which started this current debate stated that the UAE does NOT want to develop or co-develop this capability, but they DO want improved capability and tech levels and THEY believe the Super Hornet satisfies all these demands.

Familiarity is one reason why Super Hornet might be preferred to Rafale. UAE are replacing half their air force anyway, likely with Rafale or as it now appears, Super Hornets. Your argument is a non-sequitor. Half their airforce IS going to be replaced, I'm not saying UAE is going to choose Super Hornets would be chosen just to chummy up to Boeing, but closer relationships with major defence contractors is most definitely a valid reason for choosing a particular platform, ask Brazil...

2. Priorities change, UAE has pretty good experience with both American and French aircraft. Perhaps privately they are not as satisfied with their 'French' experience as they could be. They chose the F-16 in preference to the Rafale once before afterall...

There were also reports that the Black Shaheen missiles were significantly downgraded compared to their Storm Shadow base weapons, perhaps the American offerings are no longer so distasteful?

Well next year UAE start operating Erieye, and although Boeing may be the front runner to winning the "real deal" one should not discount the possibility of another company winning.

Saab has sold Erieye to 7 countries so far, it's a mature product; however it may also be possible to upgrade and extend, and since UAE now has a temporary solution they may be less in a hurry to buy something more sophisticated, which opens for the possibility of doing with Saab what they did with LM and Dassault in the past; develop a mature system into something much more sophisticated.

An upgraded Erieye may be easier to sell than F-16 block 60 or Mirage 2000-9, neither of which were ever sold outside the Emirates.

And if they decide to work with Eireye also in the future then perhaps they may consider the Gripen NG instead of either the Rafale or the SH. It would give less dependence on the US, and Taurus could be offered as a stand-off weapon.

If RBS-15 is found wanting I think Saab would be happy to integrate SLAM/ER, and unlike the Rafale, Gripen does have a two-way datalink.