Is Russia next to fight in Affghanistan with Taliban?
- Thread starter Kevin123
- Start date
It depends...
A major reason for Russia to allow NATO so much leeway in AStan is, that NATO is effectively defending Russias underbelly in AStan.
Its like having a wasp nest in a corner of your backyard and being unwilling to abandon marmelade on your breakfast table.
Then suddenly your not much liked neigbour climbs over the fence and puts up a permanent camp right next to the wasps nest in your backyard, permanently angering those wasps.
I mean, you dont like someone being in your backyard, but breakfast is so much more relaxed now, since nearly all of the wasps go for the other guy. Its so good for you that you allow that guy to get supplied through your garden.
And remembering your own unsuccessful experience trying to "clear" your backyard from wasps, it must be a hell of a sight :haha .
The important question is now, what if this guy leaves again?
Will the enraged and battle hardened wasps come for your breakfast table? Or will they follow your neighbor? Or will they be too occupied with rebuilding their nest ?(but can wasps rebuild, if they only know how to fight for more than a generation?)
And it depends on those questions, what you finally do. But surely you would want to decrease the odds of one of the alternatives (maybe indirectly by increasing the odds for another one?).
A major reason for Russia to allow NATO so much leeway in AStan is, that NATO is effectively defending Russias underbelly in AStan.
Its like having a wasp nest in a corner of your backyard and being unwilling to abandon marmelade on your breakfast table.
Then suddenly your not much liked neigbour climbs over the fence and puts up a permanent camp right next to the wasps nest in your backyard, permanently angering those wasps.
I mean, you dont like someone being in your backyard, but breakfast is so much more relaxed now, since nearly all of the wasps go for the other guy. Its so good for you that you allow that guy to get supplied through your garden.
And remembering your own unsuccessful experience trying to "clear" your backyard from wasps, it must be a hell of a sight :haha .
The important question is now, what if this guy leaves again?
Will the enraged and battle hardened wasps come for your breakfast table? Or will they follow your neighbor? Or will they be too occupied with rebuilding their nest ?(but can wasps rebuild, if they only know how to fight for more than a generation?)
And it depends on those questions, what you finally do. But surely you would want to decrease the odds of one of the alternatives (maybe indirectly by increasing the odds for another one?).
Hell no.
Taliban are interested in blind hate at the west, in fact they can consider Russia a great "Potential" Operative word potential asset
You dont see the Taliban housing NATO weapons do you?
And were are they getting sophisticated Strela MANPADS?
West first and then and only then, everything else
They may use russias weapons while fighting russia. Northern caucasus sends greatings.
Get it through your head that NATO is the greatest threat to the Talibans goals, Russia is a much later priority.
Chechnyan resistance forces get bot physical, financial and moral support from Taliban terrorists. Even if NATO backs out of Afghanistan, The Taliban will not quit, in fact they may see this a victory and continue overseas operations against the NATO countries.
The Taliban are not just going to say, "Oh well NATO went away, lets get on Russia's nerves.
Another reason why Taliban would probably have trouble even if they did get involved with Russia, is Russia ROE are not as strict as NATO's and the Taliban are going to be facing a greater volume of power and force.
Russia's growing ties with Iran are also to be considered
The Taliban have foremost regional interests, they are of no direct concern to other countries.
Neither to US nor Russia.
The foreigners going to AStan, fighting for or along the Taliban are the threat.
And for them it is much easier to cross the border to Russia, than to the US, in numbers.
Neither to US nor Russia.
The foreigners going to AStan, fighting for or along the Taliban are the threat.
And for them it is much easier to cross the border to Russia, than to the US, in numbers.
GermanHerman
Active Member
I think you are right about the foreign fighters beeing the main threat.
As far as it concerns Astan I think it's pretty unlikely that Russia is going to take military actions.
Why are we talking about russia anyway, the next big player is already in Astan and "suprise" it's china.
They are going for the ressources of astan, but don't care about the local politics so I guess they won't need troops but gonna bring infrastructure etc. pp.
AStan was, is and will be a centerstage for empires and would be empires.
US, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia
All have their strong interests regarding it, and all of them are pursuing a strategy for it.
AStan is not only the graveyard of empires, it is (as usual) a pivot element in the great game.
US, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia
All have their strong interests regarding it, and all of them are pursuing a strategy for it.
AStan is not only the graveyard of empires, it is (as usual) a pivot element in the great game.
GermanHerman
Active Member
True, but these days money moves way faster than any army and is way more welcomed by the locals.
Also we should may be first define what kinda warfare we would expect russia to start, are we talking about full scale invasion again or something different?
The primary reasons at this point for the Russians wanting involvement is the drug issue that is hitting their country, they are totally alarmed at the rate of Herion that is entering from the borders in this region, also they are most interested in some of the mineral deposits that have been discovered. Russia has just sold helicopters and other weapons to the Afghanistan government with the promise that more will follow, Russia is also sending military personnel into this region.
F-15 Eagle
New Member
After what happened the first time around in the 1980's I highly doubt it. Russia has no intention to go back in Afghanistan.
They are starting to experience major problems within Russia due to the drugs that are spilling over, this really leaves them no choice but to get involved.
Imho russia wont go back as an occupation force, but of course there are other means.
The problem with the drugs is, that it provides a strategic dilemma.
NATO is "supporting" the poppy cultivation in AStan, because otherwise they fear that they would get greater problems if they dont.
On the other hand a NATO presence in AStan is relatively good fro russia (at the moment), because it keeps the fanatics and other AStan interested players in check (but thats quite ambigous itself, funnily many other players think so as well).
And under the taliban, the drug problem existed as well.
The problem with the drugs is, that it provides a strategic dilemma.
NATO is "supporting" the poppy cultivation in AStan, because otherwise they fear that they would get greater problems if they dont.
On the other hand a NATO presence in AStan is relatively good fro russia (at the moment), because it keeps the fanatics and other AStan interested players in check (but thats quite ambigous itself, funnily many other players think so as well).
And under the taliban, the drug problem existed as well.
Agree, Russia will not resort to the old days of occupation, more than likely offer some friendly advisory service where its needed, maybe a few hit and run missions while the Afghanistan government turns a blind eye.
I agree that Russia has no intention to return, except perhaps in the limited way Eckherl suggests, but one should remember that the Taliban wouldn't get the Western support the 1980s Mujahideen did.
Russia has already fought the Taliban, primarily in Tadjikistan, when the Russian forces there essentially stopped the country from being invaded. If NATO departs without achieving decisive results in Afghan, then this may very well happen again. However as long as NATO is doing the bulk of the fighting, Russia is perfectly happy to assist in a non-combat capacity (helos for the Afghans, transit agreements for NATO).
I wouldn't overprice this.
In reality the ties are everything else then growing !
For example Russia delayed several times the building of their nuclear reactor and also Russia isn't happy with all the troubles about Iran. Especially after the resolution against Iran, some of their parliaments started with things like free Chechnya and so on. In conclusion it's almost impossible to have longterm relationships with Islamic countries
- The history is the best friend !
I'd be a little more respectful with your statements. Additionally consider that Russia has had long term relationships with Syria, Algeria, and Libya, all predominantly Muslim countries. I'm not disagreeing with you in regards to Iran in particular, but your more general point is wrong.I wouldn't overprice this.
In reality the ties are everything else then growing !
For example Russia delayed several times the building of their nuclear reactor and also Russia isn't happy with all the troubles about Iran. Especially after the resolution against Iran, some of their parliaments started with things like free Chechnya and so on. In conclusion it's almost impossible to have longterm relationships with Islamic countries
For sure, I am sorry i meant Iran in its whole storyline !
Greetings
i beg to differ though russia has strong ties with musslim countries the taliban are radical extremists and all extremist cause problems for other people in that same religeon and this goes for any religeon as soon as the taliban start to get to out of hand and cause a bigger problem i garuntee that other musslim countries and even more countries such as russia though most of the weapons are russian the french are being blamed for arms dealing with groups that just so happened to be helping terrorists or atleast this is what ive been informed of.