Iranian military will go much longer than Iraq forces. U.S. Air Force will take alot of the Iranian ground forces out but the Iranians will adapt to this. Iranian Air Defense has received advance AD units from other militaries. They going have a little surprise that going catch who decided to launch an attack. Iranian are producing some of there own stuff that what the different between Iran and NVA, Vietcong and Iraq. If you are able to produce your own equipment that a big different. Iranian has mastered the IDE's that where the problem going be in a ground war that why I said that a ground war with Iran will be much longer. This what gonna cause a headache for U.S. Forces and will take alot of equipment and personnel out. They have the prove in Iraq about the Iranian explosives. Like I said before it going to be big mess its still a big possibly of a incident in the Gulf. A nation that train for years for an attack is not going to be an easy foe.
There is nothing (conventional) in Iranian military inventory that US cannot defeat. I think conventionally Iran will only be able to sustain the war for around four to six weeks (my estimation). But even with this fact U.S will not be able to win the war in Iran.
i. Sending ground troops will be the biggest mistake, even if U.S destroyed Iranian military's war fighting capability. The Iranian popular will or will of the people to fight U.S. will prove devastating for U.S and allies in Iran. Remember that Iranian people do train as militia in
anticipation of war with U.S.
ii. Iranian
ballistic missiles will put entire M.E under a threat. Only good news is that Iran has no nuclear warhead and the conventional impact of these missiles will be limited. Nevertheless, collectively they'll be able to overwhelm capaital of any single state in ME - which more likely to be Tel Aviv.
iii. Iran may negatively influence the
Afghan war as well support strikes by Shia militants against
US forces in Iraq.
Hezbollah and
Hamas will also be motivated to launch strikes on Israel.
Shia uprising in the oil rich zones of Saudi Arabia cannot be ruled out either.
iv. Disrupting of trade rout and oil supply from the Persian Gulf by Iran is another major option.
v.
Wide spread international condemnation and lack of regional support for U.S/Israel attacks. Turkey,
China,
Russia and even U.S allies like
Pakistan and
India will not support such a move. While
India and
Pakistan do not see eye-to-eye on bilateral issues as well as on Afghanistan they do sometimes jump on board the same ship when it comes to international affairs i.e. both supported Palestinian cause against Israel throughout the Cold War. Both states have wider economic and energy interests in Iran.
Afghanistan and
Iraq other two parties, which regardless of presence of U.S forces, will oppose such an adventure.
GCC states will not be able to economically sustain war in Persian Gulf, so don't count on them. So, when you don't have support of the Iran's immediate neighbors, how do you expect to conduct this war?
vi. Finally nothing will unite Iran people more (after the controversial elections) then a U.S led invasion partnered with Israel. U.S will chopping off its own feet in M.E if they attack Iran.
Here is the punchline: U.S can disregard everything I have said above, but the share threat to the oil supply and trade routs in the Persian Gulf and threat of Shia uprising in the oil rich zones of GCC States is enough to deter U.S attacks. Its a no go area. The Iranian dogs have guns and they refuse to take their medicine.
