Second Korean War?

[Bergerpollm]

A North Korean "Foreign Ministry" Spokesperson warned they would attack South Korea if sanctions were passed. Sanctions will be passed. If North Korea does attack South Korea I expect it to start a short worldwide conflict INCLUDING IRAN, the U.S., ISRAEL, CUBA, RUSSIA, CHINA, JAPAN, PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, AL-QAEDA.

If In stead of a Korean War, WWIII began, how do you expect it to pan out and who do you expect the Axis and Allies to pan out.
I see

Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan

vs.

People's China
Iran
North Korea

 

[toastonrye]

A North Korean "Foreign Ministry" Spokesperson warned they would attack South Korea if sanctions were passed. Sanctions will be passed. If North Korea does attack South Korea I expect it to start a short worldwide conflict INCLUDING IRAN, the U.S., ISRAEL, CUBA, RUSSIA, CHINA, JAPAN, PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, AL-QAEDA.

If In stead of a Korean War, WWIII began, how do you expect it to pan out and who do you expect the Axis and Allies to pan out.
I see

Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan

vs.

People's China
Iran
North Korea

Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
England
Australia
most of NATO will lend aid


vs.

People's China
Iran
Turkey (for some reason i feel as if there becoming pro-iran and moving away from US.Israel relations.
North Korea

 

[StevoJH]

Are you two quite alright there? :lam

You are picking nations out of a hat, greatly exagerating the scale out or proportion to reality, not to mention you arent even calling nations by their proper names.

England = United Kingdom
People's China = Peoples Republic of China

 

[swerve]

Indeed.

I wonder how some of these countries are expected to join a Korean war, & why. Turkey, for example, has close links with South Korea. It buys S. Korean weapons. The Turkish contingent in the Korean war fought heroically, & their contribution is regularly commemorated in high-profile joint ceremonies. But suddenly, they're supposed to switch sides, despite a complete lack of motive for doing so.

And Israel? It's never joined in any war not on its own borders before. Why start now? What stake does it have in Korea?

Cuba - what is the Cuban motive for committing suicide?

Etc., etc.

Any Korean war would be confined to Korea. The only state with any interest in expanding a war would be North Korea, & it lacks the means. It can strike its immediate neighbours with missiles, but their responses would be confined to direct reactions against North Korea. Everybody outside North Korea - and that includes China, most definitely - would try to limit the war.

 

[Bergerpollm]

My apologies for writing England. I know some Scots find this offensive. I wasn't picking names out of a hat, as this is how the alignment is currently. What is the motivation for countries to join a Korean war? The First Korean War involved China and the Soviets. It will now involve China and Iran. If Iran protects North Korea, do you think nuclear amibitions of the regime in Iran could help be fulfilled by the North Koreans as well as strenghtening North Korean-Iranian Relations.

I definetly didn't appreciate the sarcasm, and Peoples' China is what Communist China has been referred to by many Heads of State. If Iran were to join a Korean War, the United States would ask Israel to strike Iran.

Swerve, I apologize for not explaining myself. My theory is that it would start as Korean War, and countries would begin align in a broader conflict BECAUSE OF INTERESTS on both sides. I agree, Cuba shouldn't have been included. I let my imagination get the best of me

Also, even if a Korean War started(North Korean strike on South Korea) The United States would by default join the war with the NATO. My theory of a "broader war" would be that North Korean allies would wish to join such a war to protect NUCLEAR INTEREST(MYANMAR, IRAN)

 

[StevoJH]

How does Iran come into it? They have absolutely no power projection capabilities that would let them support North Korea and they would be shooting themselves in the foot. They could be flattened by Saudi Arabia and Turkey within days, and thats without Pakistan joining the "party".

Israel would not be involved because I don't see Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Jordan giving them permission to overfly their airspace. Check a map, Israel is a couple of countries away from Iran.

Turkey is part of NATO, if the Turkish government tried to go all religious the Turkish Military would pull them back into line, as they have done in the past.

Russia will not be involved.

China will not be involved, North Korea is an embarressment to them, I wouldn't be surprised if they just closed off their borders and shot anyone trying to cross them, whether refugee or soldier.

No one wants a war in Korea, especially not China and South Korea, as the resulting influx of Refugee's into both countries from North Korea that would result would completely crush the South Korean economy and also negatively affect the Chinese economy. If you don't believe me, look up the Economy cost of East/West German integration (unless kato or one of our other German friends wants to chip in).

 

[swerve]

Swerve, I apologize for not explaining myself. My theory is that it would start as Korean War, and countries would begin align in a broader conflict BECAUSE OF INTERESTS on both sides. I agree, Cuba shouldn't have been included. I let my imagination get the best of me

Also, even if a Korean War started(North Korean strike on South Korea) The United States would by default join the war with the NATO. My theory of a "broader war" would be that North Korean allies would wish to join such a war to protect NUCLEAR INTEREST(MYANMAR, IRAN)

I think you are making a mistake about the nature of the interests of the states you mention. Iran could not protect its nuclear interests by joining in a Korean war. On the contrary, joining such a war would give its enemies a reason, & legal justification, to destroy its nuclear facilities. It cannot directly aid North Korea, & starting a local war, e.g. against oil traffic, or against US bases in the region, would be contrary to Irans interests.

Myanmar is feeble & poor. It has no ability to assist North Korea. It could achieve nothing by trying, except perhaps the fall of its government. Again, joining such a war would be contrary to its interests.

Korea has no relevance to NATO. It is outside the NATO area, which is defined by treaty.

 

[Wahuuga]

Israel would not be involved because I don't see Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Jordan giving them permission to overfly their airspace. Check a map, Israel is a couple of countries away from Iran.

Saudi Arabia recently gave Israel permission to overfly a small part of their northern airspace, and have also recently conducted drills so that their air defense network isn't scrambled in the event of an Israeli air strike on Iran.

I don't think its a case of them siding with Israel, its just the they feel equally as threatened by a nuclear Iran as everyone else does.

 

[StevoJH]

Saudi Arabia recently gave Israel permission to overfly a small part of their northern airspace, and have also recently conducted drills so that their air defense network isn't scrambled in the event of an Israeli air strike on Iran.

I don't think its a case of them siding with Israel, its just the they feel equally as threatened by a nuclear Iran as everyone else does.

Saudi Arabia doesn't need Israel's help to take out Iran.

 

[aussienscale]

I agree with Stevo and Swerve's comments, no one else would have anything to gain by joining North Korea in any potential war and most don't have the capability anyway. Even if UN sanctions are put into place I doulbt they would do anything, North Korea know that initially they could to some damage but a war with ROK would end Kim's reign and decimate the country, he is just beating his chest for his own internal political gain. As has been stated before, I doubt very much that China would even get involved, however thier biggest concern would be that America may end up on thier doorstep and the inevitable influx of refugee's. Although they may support them in a minor way, China's interest would be more to put itself on the international political stage by trying to be the peacemaker as an emerging superpower, but it would be intersting to see the tosstle between the US and China, as neither would back down trying to flex thier muscle. Could be a very tense time ?

 

[riksavage]

A North Korean "Foreign Ministry" Spokesperson warned they would attack South Korea if sanctions were passed. Sanctions will be passed. If North Korea does attack South Korea I expect it to start a short worldwide conflict INCLUDING IRAN, the U.S., ISRAEL, CUBA, RUSSIA, CHINA, JAPAN, PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, AL-QAEDA.

If In stead of a Korean War, WWIII began, how do you expect it to pan out and who do you expect the Axis and Allies to pan out.
I see

Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan

vs.

People's China
Iran
North Korea

You have listed some very strange Allied bed-fellows - Israel? Taiwan?

South Korea / US vs NK. Why would China risk all to support a basket case, all they care about is ensuring they have a buffer zone?

 

[Wahuuga]

Saudi Arabia doesn't need Israel's help to take out Iran.

I don't think they do either, but they don't have the political will to strike against another Muslim country. They wouldn't be aggressive themselves, but they're OK with turning a blind eye if it means removing a large nuclear threat in there region.

The article I read, pretty much said that they only thing having stopped Israel so far is that the Obama administration hasn't yet given their blessing for a strike yet. Possibly only a matter of time, but this is really a conversation for a different thread, I agree with the others that it is largely irrelevant to the Korea's.

 

[STURM]

I very much doubt, and I hope I'm not proven wrong here, that there will be a 2nd war soon.
A new war on the Korean peninsular, apart from the cost in human lives, could have disastrous effects on the global economy. China which has the most influence with the North Koreans is probably doing all it can behind the scenes to prevent a war. Despite all the rhetoric and beating of war drums, the main aim of North Korea is regime survival as aussienscale pointed out. Another point to consider is at the moment the South Koreans are not very willing too see a unified Korea anytime soon as they saw how many billion marks the Bonn government had to spend on integrating East Germany.

How does Iran come into it? They have absolutely no power projection capabilities that would let them support North Korea and they would be shooting themselves in the foot. They could be flattened by Saudi Arabia and Turkey within days, and thats without Pakistan joining the "party".

Can Saudi Arabia, despite the billions of dollars spent on defence, be able to deal with Iran on it's own? Granted I could be mistaken here and maybe the Saudi Arabian military has come a long way in improving its ability to conduct operations. For an interesting perspective on the Saudi and other Arab militaries up to the 1st Gulf War, Ken Pollack's 'Arabs At War' is a good read.

Saudi Arabia doesn't need Israel's help to take out Iran.

No, but it does need the help of the Americans and the hundreds of foreign contractors to support its military. Having a large fleet of F-15s and Tornados certainly gives the Saudi's a very impressive capability on paper to inflict damage on the Iranians but does the RSAF have the capability to conduct a sustained air campaign?

 

[swerve]

Saudi Arabia recently gave Israel permission to overfly a small part of their northern airspace, and have also recently conducted drills so that their air defense network isn't scrambled in the event of an Israeli air strike on Iran.

No. There is an unconfirmed report that it is rumoured by anonymous US sources that Saudi Arabia has hinted to the Israelis that the Israeli air force might be allowed to fly across Saudi air space without being intercepted, & it's rumoured that drills the Saudis have conducted are for the purpose you refer to.

There are various interpretations of such rumours. They could be true. They could be false, & intended to make it politically difficult for the Saudis to act as described. There are other possible motives for spreading the stories.

 

[Wahuuga]

No. There is an unconfirmed report that it is rumoured by anonymous US sources that Saudi Arabia has hinted to the Israelis that the Israeli air force might be allowed to fly across Saudi air space without being intercepted, & it's rumoured that drills the Saudis have conducted are for the purpose you refer to.

There are various interpretations of such rumours. They could be true. They could be false, & intended to make it politically difficult for the Saudis to act as described. There are other possible motives for spreading the stories.

Your probably correct, I had only seen a short article on the matter. Even if that was the motivation, I don't think any government, and especially not the US, would be too critical of a preemptive strike to prevent nuclear war with Iran.

The problem, in my opinion anyway, would be that even if Iran didn't have nuclear capability, the Saudi's allowing Israeli's to use their airspace would open retaliation on them from Iran's conventional force's, which will outdated, they still have reasonably large naval and air forces.

The other reason it's a possibility is that Iran publicly said they were happy to provide military escort for humanitarian ships in the Mediterranean headed for Gaza. Would make it so easy for a conflict to be sparked for little reason. Israel would defiantly try and stop the ships, the whole reason for the blockade is to stop Iranian arms from being smuggled in.

Take what I say with a grain of salt though, I am by no means very knowledgeable on Middle Eastern politics.

 

[justone]

Can Saudi Arabia, despite the billions of dollars spent on defence, be able to deal with Iran on it's own? Granted I could be mistaken here and maybe the Saudi Arabian military has come a long way in improving its ability to conduct operations. For an interesting perspective on the Saudi and other Arab militaries up to the 1st Gulf War, Ken Pollack's 'Arabs At War' is a good read.



No, but it does need the help of the Americans and the hundreds of foreign contractors to support its military. Having a large fleet of F-15s and Tornados certainly gives the Saudi's a very impressive capability on paper to inflict damage on the Iranians but does the RSAF have the capability to conduct a sustained air campaign?

Saudi Arabia will not be able to sustained air campaign without it foreign contractors. I will said this they probably go about a month of heavy bombing. If you look at the fight it had with Yemen on the border they did not look to good. I'm kind of upset with the Saudis Military after all that military assistance for so long they did not perform like a strong military. Yemen rebels capture Saudi personnel and equipment. There military command did not look like it knew what it was doing. The Saudi military have not came a long way they still same as 19 years ago. That why anyone who dont have assistance from foreigner are in better shape than Saudi Arabia when thing go bad with the one who giving the assistance when they leave you're in bad shape.

When I was in Gulf War in 91 they just didn't have techincial skill and will to fight. A fight with Iran will not go in Saudi favor dont get me wrong they will shoot down alot Iranian planes because of technology. But in a toe to toe fight with the Iranian infantry they wont stand a change against them. About this 2nd Korean War other countries i see will not be in this war this time because S. Korean forces are strong enough to fight it alone. Back in the 50's the S. Korean just begin creating there army and received heavy training by the U.S. Also you had Communist against the West know as the Cold War. This is not the 50's I can't see this war like being a Allied vs Axis type war.

 

[GermanHerman]

whooo, looks like we just jumped one point about KSA vs Iran...

between those 2 coutrys is Iraq.

So what will Iran do?

a) try to get THROUGH Iraq and get the US. involved?
b) try it the long way (via turkey -syria-jordane right next to ISRAEL)?
c) gonna just cross the sea? Most likley but still there will be US Ships, not perfect, eh? . Also do they actualy have the capabilitys for this? I mean getting and army large enough to invade KSA over there by sea... i can't see it, they need to controle sea and air first and on the sea there will still be US, can you imagine how easy a false identification of a ship or a plane can happen when there is a full scale war going on? Even in the Iran vs Iraq war a US ship shot down a civilian plane... what if now a irany bomber sinks a US ship?

just my 2 cents...

 

[Toby]

seriously i doubt theres going to be a war its sabre rattling theres been worse incidents that didnt lead to war so i doubt this one will. Furthermore why would russia get involved why would half of them countries and why the hell would turkey declare on the west this is a completely stupid concept. If there was a war it would most likely be localised to the korean peninsular. Although Iran act belligrantly they would get stomped on why declare war when theres enough troops for army sized formations on your borders plus a host of pro western countries.

prc has more to lose by helping NK she will probably establish a buffer to prevent refugee influx if things go bad for the north they may supply NK on the sly but i doubt it.
UK I cant see us realy doing alot to support realy from what ive gathered where overstretched enough possibly elements of the first armoured div and some air assault. naval support and a few sqdrns maybe?

Russia wont do anything why would they its out of their sphere of influance and they lack the logistical ability to project power that far.

and i dont think there will be a global war for along time probably when oil or food runs outs unless we do something to be sustainable.

 

[GermanHerman]

and i dont think there will be a global war for along time probably when oil or food runs outs unless we do something to be sustainable.

I agree completly on this.

These giant world wide wars are out dated.
WW2 demonstrated that in this times of modern warfare a war against an equal enemy will def. end in total destruction even if no wmd are involved.
It means a total loss of influence and economical power when the large powers fight, just look what happend to soviet russia, and there was no war, they simpy ran out of money...

None of the larger powers will risk their own total destruction.

To quote wiki:

Proxy war or Proxy warfare

A proxy war or proxy warfare is a war that results when opposing powers use third parties as substitutes for fighting each other directly.

...

Typically proxy wars function best during cold wars, as they become a necessity in conducting armed conflict between at least two belligerents while continuing cold warfare.

...

Proxy wars were common in the Cold War, because the two nuclear-armed superpowers (the Soviet Union and the United States) did not wish to fight each other directly, since that would have run the risk of escalation to a nuclear war (see mutual assured destruction). Proxies were used in conflicts in Afghanistan, Angola, Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East, and Latin America.

 

[Awang se]

anything to gain by joining North Korea in any potential war and most don't have the capability anyway. Even if UN sanctions are put into place I doulbt they would do anything, North Korea know that initially they could to some damage but a war with ROK would end Kim's reign and decimate the country, he is just beating his chest for his own internal political gain. As has been stated before, I doubt very much that China would even get involved, however thier biggest concern would be that America may end up on thier doorstep and the inevitable influx of refugee's. Although they may support them in a minor way, China's interest would be more to put itself on the international political stage by trying to be the peacemaker as an emerging superpower, but it would be intersting to see the tosstle between the US and China, as neither would back down trying to flex thier muscle. Could be a very tense time ?

US may not involved directly in the second Korean War or they'll risk provoking Chinese response. If they do involve, there may be limited to air interdiction mission against targets deep inside NK while ROKAF will concentrate on the area near the front line. even if the US ground troops do involve, i bet there's limit to how deep they can advance.

I see the future theretical conflict between US and China to be very complex and out of the ordinary. Over the years, Both have created an almost symbiotic economic reliance with each other. we may see both forces clashes on the field but they both will still retain trades between each other. Chinese merchant shipping may still be allowed into a certain US ports and vice versa.