North korea v South Korea and UN

[swerve]

China has spent the last few years cosying up to South Korea. It would not start WW3 to save Kim Jong Il. North Korea is a useful barrier, but also embarrassing, expensive & dangerously unpredictable. South Korea, on the other hand, is a well-behaved & highly valued trade partner.

In the highly unlikely event of a new Korean war, I can only imagine China intervening after a N. Korean collapse, to occupy border areas of N. Korea in order to
1) keep the flood of N. Korean refugees out of China
2) keep the US armed forces away from the Chinese border
3) have something to bargain with in the post-war settlement, which might, with a bit of luck, be exchanged for US withdrawal & a great reduction of the military strength of a united Korea.

I expect that any such Chinese intervention would be accompanied by lots of noise about its peaceful intentions, details of exactly how far the PLA would advance, requests for liaison with the S. Korean forces to prevent accidental conflicts, etc.

 

[eckherl]

Last year wasn`t the trade between ROK and China around 13 billion, trade has been on a steady incline now for over 10 years and will continue to grow, something else that has just erupted is the killing of three Chinese nationals by a North Korean soldier, just shows the unpredictable behavior that is hosted from the North. I would have to agree with Swerve inregards to China's involvement in any type of conflict, this could turn out to be a win win situation for them.

 

[justone]

Last year wasn`t the trade between ROK and China around 13 billion, trade has been on a steady incline now for over 10 years and will continue to grow, something else that has just erupted is the killing of three Chinese nationals by a North Korean soldier, just shows the unpredictable behavior that is hosted from the North. I would have to agree with Swerve inregards to China's involvement in any type of conflict, this could turn out to be a win win situation for them.

I dont know if China and N. Korean have secret meetings but dont underestimate the China-N. Korean relationship but Kim know he cant go to far with China they dont have to many friends. The only trip he went to was to China so there relationship is not that bad as everyone think. What was Chinese reaction to the killing of there citizen by N. Korean guard?

 

[eckherl]

I dont know if China and N. Korean have secret meetings but dont underestimate the China-N. Korean relationship but Kim know he cant go to far with China they dont have to many friends. The only trip he went to was to China so there relationship is not that bad as everyone think. What was Chinese reaction to the killing of there citizen by N. Korean guard?

I would think that both China and North Korea have a working relationship seeings how a defence treaty was just signed between China, Iran and North Korea. Also, the only reason why Kim Jong Ill recently visited China was to beg for additional aide which he wasn't even promised that he will get. Chinese reaction to the killing of three of their nationals has not gone over really well and they expect North Korea to fully explain themselves on the justification for such a act.

I have spent quite a bit of time in that region working with both the U.S Army and ROK, I have many friends and family members that reside in ROK so I do not over estimate North Korean capability, but this is not the 70's or 80's any longer, ROK has placed total destruction priority of all North Korean forces in their favor and they have had this capability now for quite some time, they do not need U.S boots on the ground, the 2nd ID is nothing more than a skeleton crew that is stationed there, if the U.S had their way we would not even have that, 8th Army Command will be more of a factor anyways if coordinated boots on the ground presence would be needed. North Korea will not even get off of their jump off points, all underground tunnel networks have been identified, road networks in ROK have choke points and obstacles in place, it will be a total slaughter on the North side. Again, ROK has already told the U.S that what they need is naval and air assets.

 

[riksavage]

I talked to a individual with credentials who stated that North Korea will maybe get two or three burps out of their artillery and then there will be so many cruise missiles and other goodies flying in from the south side that it will be very fatal for even an aircraft to be flying low. Estimates place 70% destruction of North Korean force structure with in 48 hours.

U.S has already stated that we only need to lend a naval and air hand to the ROK.

This is a no brainer, the North Koreans will launch a huge barrage against the South, decimate border areas and parts of Seoul, followed by armoured thrusts south supported by Fifth columnists actively sowing confusion and disruption to slow South Koreas mobilisation efforts. NK will attempt to grab as much territory as possible before their inadequate supply lines collapse. They may then try to sue for peace in exchange for massive aid and international recognition????

SK will mobilise and move north along well defined MSR's. The entire country is geared towards mobilisation, and from day one the military will seize/dominate all life on the ground. Civilians will be forcedly moved off the MSR's, all public transportation will fall under military control for the single purpose of moving assets north. Casualties will be enormous, but the South Koreans accept that. Anyone who's worked with the South Korean military knows just how focused and tough they are, they don't call them the 'Irish of Asia' for nothing.

Designated form-up areas have already been identified in all major cities, especially those falling within the anticipated zone expected to come under initial NK control. Foreign nationals (those that have survived the initial onslaught) will come under preplanned non-combatant evacuation orders (NEO).

The Chinese, knowing the North are doomed, will cross the border and establish a buffer zone, thus preventing a future reunified western leaning country from having a foothold right on the border. The new Korea will go through years of pain trying to integrate a brainwashed populous, however once complete, the reunified country will be one of the strongest in Asia, both militarily and economically and will eventually overtake Japan.

 

[swerve]

Last year wasn`t the trade between ROK and China around 13 billion, .

Multiply by more than 10 . . .

China exports to ROK 2005 - $35 bn
China imports from ROK 2005 - $77 bn

China exports to ROK 2009 - $54 bn
China imports from ROK 2009 - $104 bn

Total Chinese trade volume (exports plus imports) with North Korea was $2.7 bn last year.

I dont know if China and N. Korean have secret meetings but dont underestimate the China-N. Korean relationship but Kim know he cant go to far with China they dont have to many friends. The only trip he went to was to China so there relationship is not that bad as everyone think. ...

It's not his only trip abroad: he's also been to Moscow. Also, you seem to be assuming some kind of symmetry in the relationship, which is wrong. China is overwhelmingly important to North Korea: North Korea is not very important to China. Kim Jong Il goes to China to be told off & to wheedle for aid, not because the Chinese like him or his state.

Also, don't overestimate the significance of him never having been to any other countries: he's afraid of flying, & only goes where he can travel in his personal train. That's fairly easy to Beijing, possible to Moscow - but elsewhere? Mongolia, yes - but where else? Europe only with Russian co-operation (& it takes over a week to get there), Vietnam if the Chinese allow it. That's it.

 

[eckherl]

Multiply by more than 10 . . .

China exports to ROK 2005 - $35 bn
China imports from ROK 2005 - $77 bn

China exports to ROK 2009 - $54 bn
China imports from ROK 2009 - $104 bn

Total Chinese trade volume (exports plus imports) with North Korea was $2.7 bn last year.


It's not his only trip abroad: he's also been to Moscow. Also, you seem to be assuming some kind of symmetry in the relationship, which is wrong. China is overwhelmingly important to North Korea: North Korea is not very important to China. Kim Jong Il goes to China to be told off & to wheedle for aid, not because the Chinese like him or his state.

Also, don't overestimate the significance of him never having been to any other countries: he's afraid of flying, & only goes where he can travel in his personal train. That's fairly easy to Beijing, possible to Moscow - but elsewhere? Mongolia, yes - but where else? Europe only with Russian co-operation (& it takes over a week to get there), Vietnam if the Chinese allow it. That's it.

Every new day is a learning experience,

I figured you would be the one to know the actual trade numbers, never knew that the dear leader is afraid to fly but this would explain why he tends to stick close to home territory.

 

[justone]

I would think that both China and North Korea have a working relationship seeings how a defence treaty was just signed between China, Iran and North Korea. . North Korea will not even get off of their jump off points, all underground tunnel networks have been identified, road networks in ROK have choke points and obstacles in place, it will be a total slaughter on the North side. Again, ROK has already told the U.S that what they need is naval and air assets.

When did China, Iran, and N Korean sign a defense treaty? I never heard or read this before that something new if this is true then if fighting break out than China is going to help N Korea in some way. Now I know N. Korean know that the S. Korean have identified there underground network . Dont you think that N. Korean have change there plan to something else. This isn't the 80's this is a new century and N. Korean have change there offensive target and know where not to go when they strike S. Korean. All they want is a Non-aggression pact what is wrong with that. The S. Korean and U.S. must have some plan that the general public dont know about.

 

[stoker]

China has spent the last few years cosying up to South Korea. It would not start WW3 to save Kim Jong Il. North Korea is a useful barrier, but also embarrassing, expensive & dangerously unpredictable. South Korea, on the other hand, is a well-behaved & highly valued trade partner.

In the highly unlikely event of a new Korean war, I can only imagine China intervening after a N. Korean collapse, to occupy border areas of N. Korea in order to
1) keep the flood of N. Korean refugees out of China
2) keep the US armed forces away from the Chinese border
3) have something to bargain with in the post-war settlement, which might, with a bit of luck, be exchanged for US withdrawal & a great reduction of the military strength of a united Korea.

I expect that any such Chinese intervention would be accompanied by lots of noise about its peaceful intentions, details of exactly how far the PLA would advance, requests for liaison with the S. Korean forces to prevent accidental conflicts, etc.

Swerve, i agree with your accessment on China's most probable actions if the N.Koreans are stupid enough to attack SKorea.

China is a vastly different country nowadays to the China that fought on NKorea's side in the last Korean conflict.
China is now no longer a 'Communist' country, it see's itself as the next super power equal in status and influence to the USA, China is now a very wealthy nation with the largest workforce economy in the world. Several economist's believe that in the future "communist" China will opt for a Singapore type "democratic" single party political system.

If a conflict breaks out between NKorea and SKorea, all China has to do is protect its own borders
( your No1)from NKorean refugees, and sit back and watch SKorea win, which it undoubtably will, albeit at a massive cost to itself. I don't think US armed forces (your No2) willl go anyware near the Chinese border.

Skorea would have to bear the massive cost of re-absorbing NKorea in to a united Korea,

China knows that, not only would a unite Korea be no military threat to China, there would be a massive financial increase in trade prospects between both countries. China would also be rid of its NKorean nuclear threating problem child.

China as per your (No3) would come out of the conflict smelling of roses, and complete unharmed militarily, politically, or financially. the US would have NO reason whatsoever to remain in Korea, and most probably have NO reason to keep troops in Japan.

With the US out of the Sino-Japanese area, that would leave China as the head honcho, who with a bit of deft diplomacy would be able to "peacefully" re-absorb Taiwan in to China.

We certainly live in interesting times, and all it took was one mad NKorea nutter, and one torpedo.

 

[lopez]

When did China, Iran, and N Korean sign a defense treaty? I never heard or read this before that something new if this is true then if fighting break out than China is going to help N Korea in some way. Now I know N. Korean know that the S. Korean have identified there underground network . Dont you think that N. Korean have change there plan to something else. This isn't the 80's this is a new century and N. Korean have change there offensive target and know where not to go when they strike S. Korean. All they want is a Non-aggression pact what is wrong with that. The S. Korean and U.S. must have some plan that the general public dont know about.

wasn't the treaty more of a defence information sharing deal?

not a military alliance treaty.

 

[eckherl]

When did China, Iran, and N Korean sign a defense treaty? I never heard or read this before that something new if this is true then if fighting break out than China is going to help N Korea in some way. Now I know N. Korean know that the S. Korean have identified there underground network . Dont you think that N. Korean have change there plan to something else. This isn't the 80's this is a new century and N. Korean have change there offensive target and know where not to go when they strike S. Korean. All they want is a Non-aggression pact what is wrong with that. The S. Korean and U.S. must have some plan that the general public dont know about.

Call it a Defense Alliance or Treaty, this was pretty much public knowledge about a week prior to the closing of the ROK ship sinking investigation. ROK even with U.S support will never embark on a deliberate attack of North Korea, any mass scale aggression will be initiated by the North, the stakes are just to high for the loss of life and ROKs economy. North Korea knowing that they lost their edge many years ago fighting a conventional war with the South have only the nuke option as a trump card nothing else and even this is under much debate. If the North Koreans want a Non Agression Pact with the ROK then maybe they should stop sinking their ships, you can only reward bad behavior for just so long before it starts to backfire on you, If ROK decides to turn their backs entirely on the North meaning no goodwill cooperation meetings, no food aide or medicines, no joint business adventures then the North will be in big trouble, China does not want to share the brunt of aide to the North.

 

[chulhee]

the row between two countries is soaring
I just don't know why because at least they were brothers

 

[justone]

If the North Koreans want a Non Agression Pact with the ROK then maybe they should stop sinking their ships, you can only reward bad behavior for just so long before it starts to backfire on you, If ROK decides to turn their backs entirely on the North meaning no goodwill cooperation meetings, no food aide or medicines, no joint business adventures then the North will be in big trouble, China does not want to share the brunt of aide to the North.

Do anyone remember when S. Korean hit a N. Korean ship or was it a fishing boat. The S. Korean have did things to. They not off the hook either its just N. Korea actual reply back and hit one of there ships. I don't know why everyone forgot about that incident. Im not trying to pick side but for every action there is reaction.It just some countries actual do react to what happen to them. They want a Non Agression Pact with the U.S. They not worry about the S. Koreans.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Ok as soon as I get the information out from my files I will forward copies to Mod team

It has been 4 months since you were required to provide supporting evidence of prev service.

you have 3 days to provide evidence of prior service to the Mod Team

if you have not provided it by then you run the risk of being banned for making false claims and misrepresenting your background.