The Royal Navy Discussions and Updates

[recce.k1]

& apologies in advance for another bout of wishful optimism from me but following on from the antipodean posters ...

Another small contribution to this industrial partnership could also 'potentially' see NZ acquire at least 2 of these "cheaper" small littoral submarines as t68 describes.

:lol2 (I hear you say)!

But you here all know that NZ is regarded as the weak link in the 5i due to its "complacent" attitude amongst its society and (non-defence, intelligence and foreign affairs) institutions. Wasn't NZ a great place for the KGB to aclimatise to western society (due to its laid back and trusting attitude of the general populance)? Or is that a generalisation, the truth lies somewhere in between?

But NZ (govt) trusts its intelligence and whilst NZ is riding on the back of Australia in terms of rising commodity exports to the new rising powers, it is fully aware that these rising powers are also playing their great game in these (regional) parts both diplomatically and economically. Former intelligence analyst(s) here make mention of covert rising power sub operations within NZ's 'regional sphere'. What better way to counter that on the quiet, diplomatically that is, with a couple of littoral subs? Non threatening (non-strategic) but give these rising power(s) the need to be weary and respect certain 'boundaries'? Aust and NZ plays the bad-cop/good-cop in the regional stage here behind the scenes (eg to drum up support for certain 'initiatives'), again this is a strengthened continuation of the same. (Plus such as initiative may assist with western counter-espionage in terms of spying/deterring "others" that may be eavesdropping on the periphery of NZ's sig-int, which potentially could be a back-door entry point into the wider western intelligence gathering apparatus etc).

I could go so far as to dig out previous efforts by the likes of some of the (then) NZ Greens suggesting littoral subs were in NZ's interests! That'll cloud any 'opposition' to the concept!

What better way then eh. But sub ops aren't my "speciality" (and most kiwis posting here aren't that keen) but I know that Lanc Bomber could run with it and drum up support behind the scenes. Makes perfect sense to me but would require some influencial persuasion ... long term anything is possible as NZ's economy taps into the new order but relationships with traditional and like minded partners are strengthened...

(C'mon you Brits, ya need to think globally and not get left behind as the resources down under are being strategically secured, long term .... The EU is making its presence felt ... but who's to lead - the cautious, slow and mutli-faceted EU or the UK? Show some Commonwealth leadership ...

 

[t68]

From memory Astute can do everything Virginia can except it does not have VLS

Same number of weapons. Just all Tube launched. This gives more scope for weapons flexibility. Virginia can *only* carrry Tomahawk in those VLS.
Astute has 6 Torpedo tubes, currently cleared for spearfish, which isnt an issue since the Mk.48's will run out of life at some point plus the tubes are 21" in both cases to Mk.48 could be cleared.
Both can fire torpedoes, tomahawk, harpoon and mines.

So both submarines are roughly comparable, in weapons at least, not sure about the electronic side.

I recall someone on here, think it was GF but don’t quote me on that conversation went on about combat systems on the Astute/Virginia class submarine and the Virginina left the Astute for dead in computing power in what way i have no idea they did not elaborate.

 

[t68]

2. Britain is not going to be selling 3 Astute submarines to Australia or anyone.

I think Lancaster bomber was referring to tacking onto the production line, not buy three boats under construction for the RN.

Possibly most of the tech on the boats will be outdated for when the RAN is talking about getting new subs anyway, serious design and final fit out details won’t be required till 2020 i would imagine anyhow. we are still well into the preliminary design phase now.

 

[Grim901]

I think Lancaster bomber was referring to tacking onto the production line, not buy three boats under construction for the RN.

Possibly most of the tech on the boats will be outdated for when the RAN is talking about getting new subs anyway, serious design and final fit out details won’t be required till 2020 i would imagine anyhow. we are still well into the preliminary design phase now.

The Astutes will still be coming off the production line in 2020 assuming the govt. aren't stupid enough to allow a halt in production pre-SSBN replacement. They'll only have been in service for 9-10 years by then too, that isn't long, and upgrades will no doubt be being worked on that the RAN could incorporate from the start.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

The Astutes will still be coming off the production line in 2020 assuming the govt. aren't stupid enough to allow a halt in production pre-SSBN replacement. They'll only have been in service for 9-10 years by then too, that isn't long, and upgrades will no doubt be being worked on that the RAN could incorporate from the start.

Aus' is [very] extremely unlikely to get SSNs (as - IIRC - it is against international law to sell them). [Hence Russian 'loans' and French efforts to ToT to Brazil,] Astutes will number 7 (eight would make sense) as Barrow & RR-PWR need to roll-out boats throughout the 2020s.

Kid-yourself-not: the UK is probably the only European economy that will be able to afford this capability*. As for computing-power; I wonder if the Virginia is well-ahead over Astute as some suggest. Most modern chips are now designed in Cambridge (ARM): how quickly does Moores'-Law make absolutist statements no more than pastiches...?

* Check relative, medium-term growth patterns.

 

[Grim901]

Aus' is [very] extremely unlikely to get SSNs (as - IIRC - it is against international law to sell them). [Hence Russian 'loans' and French efforts to ToT to Brazil,] Astutes will number 7 (eight would make sense) as Barrow & RR-PWR need to roll-out boats throughout the 2020s.

Kid-yourself-not: the UK is probably the only European economy that will be able to afford this capability*. As for computing-power; I wonder if the Virginia is well-ahead over Astute as some suggest. Most modern chips are now designed in Cambridge (ARM): how quickly does Moores'-Law make absolutist statements no more than pastiches...?

* Check relative, medium-term growth patterns.

I know Aus is unlikely to get SSNs, but as the cases you used showed, the international laws can be gotten around. Which law specifically is it anyway?

And remember we aren't talking about a European economy either.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

I know Aus is unlikely to get SSNs, but as the cases you used showed, the international laws can be gotten around. Which law specifically is it anyway?

And remember we aren't talking about a European economy either.

As I understand it exporting high-value nuclear technology is banned [NPT et, al.] Australia, as a signatory, could not purchase UK or US equipment (but they may purchase some of the know-how).

No doubt GF will correct me if I am wrong.... :idea2

 

[Grim901]

As I understand it exporting high-value nuclear technology is banned [NPT et, al.] Australia, as a signatory, could not purchase UK or US equipment (but they may purchase some of the know-how).

No doubt GF will correct me if I am wrong.... :idea2

Hmm, since the only thing being exported is a nuclear reactor I can't see how it is any different to nations building nuclear power stations for others (often happens now). And as you say, others have gotten around it, both of whom are NPT signatories.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Hmm, since the only thing being exported is a nuclear reactor I can't see how it is any different to nations building nuclear power stations for others (often happens now). And as you say, others have gotten around it, both of whom are NPT signatories.

Fairy-nuff:

But India is not a member of the NPT, and the French are often a law to themselves. As I said I may be wrong, but most info I have indicates that nations cannot export SSNs.

 

[t68]

I don’t think it is feasible in Australia’s case to have nuclear powered boats without a domestic power generation capability. With the prospects of these happening under the current government is nill, former PM Howard proposed it and a report was prepared citing it would be 15/20 years before one was operational and nuclear power generation was more expensive at the base load, but an ETS would bring it back on par with coal/gas generation.

Australia could not in my view support nuclear boats without nuclear power generation; it would also have to have been operating for a number of years in large scale for Australia to have the expertise in safe handling of spent nuclear material. Lucas Heights is in my view to small to have much influence in operations for nuclear boats.

Nuclear power in Australia - ABC Science

 

[1805]

I agree the RAN is not likely to want SSNs and exporting them generally a very limited market as few navies can afford them and may would not want them for polictical reasons. Also the ones that do, will want to build their own. India was probably the only serious opportunity, but the same situation with CVs they look like they are already commited to another course.

I wonder in Brazil would be in the market for one of QEs to replace the Foch

 

[recce.k1]

I agree the RAN is not likely to want SSNs and exporting them generally a very limited market as few navies can afford them and may would not want them for polictical reasons.

The original intent of my post before (before I got carried away thinking up a justification), was broadly in support of joint venture possibilities between the likes of Australia and the UK (which is what some of the other down under posters were suggesting too) in terms of similar timeframes for major surface and sub-surface vessel replacement programmes coming up in the 2020's. Some of these developments will be of interest to other nations (thus for the ship-builders and respective govt's = jobs, revenue and maintaining a viable skilled workforce etc).

What I don't understand, which 1805's quote above neatly encompasses somewhat, is that the UK has experience with SSBN design and building (but due to that being a very limited market ie the UK itself on the whole, means no export potential/revenue), is there any reason why the UK has moved away from the design of conventional submarines (or is that not the case ie there are plans a-plenty if another nation was interested), but more importantly will the UK and Australia be able to work together on a future conventional submarine programme (or is the UK sub industry heavily committed to SSBN work and there is no spare capacity)? Apologies if this is a silly question!

 

[t68]

I agree the RAN is not likely to want SSNs and exporting them generally a very limited market as few navies can afford them and may would not want them for polictical reasons. Also the ones that do, will want to build their own. India was probably the only serious opportunity, but the same situation with CVs they look like they are already commited to another course.

I wonder in Brazil would be in the market for one of QEs to replace the Foch

In the case of the RAN you are spot on with the assessment of political will there is none under a Labour government. I believe the will is in the RAN but is being let down by past Governments inaction regard to infrastructure and a domestic power generation capability.
One only has to look at out come of the AWD project, RAN came out in favour of the Gibbs & Cox evolved Arleigh Burke Class Destroyer but ended up with the Spanish F100 to the dismay of the RAN.

Even with all the budget problems in the UK i cannot see the Government selling a Queen Elizabeth class, too much money has been spent for that then to sell it cheap then build another down the track, what ever the price difference will just be added to another build so i cannot see the difference the money is already spent. If Brazil is serious about a modern carrier she would order one without the complication of the UK trying to get most of its money back on a current build. But if you must sell it cheap mates rates to Australia please!!






PS
For a bit of a light reading we could go half’s with NZ and make it an ANZAC carrier, NZ still has a Squadron of A4 Skyhawks in the CAS role and we have F18E/F Super Hornets strategic air defence role.......(btw not to be taken seriously)

 

[BRM]

A4 skyhawk cas nice bit of kit,F18E/F Super Hornets strategic air defence role not to be taken seriously, obviously, who would take them seriously?:lol3

 

[harryriedl]

In the case of the RAN you are spot on with the assessment of political will there is none under a Labour government. I believe the will is in the RAN but is being let down by past Governments inaction regard to infrastructure and a domestic power generation capability.
One only has to look at out come of the AWD project, RAN came out in favour of the Gibbs & Cox evolved Arleigh Burke Class Destroyer but ended up with the Spanish F100 to the dismay of the RAN.

Even with all the budget problems in the UK i cannot see the Government selling a Queen Elizabeth class, too much money has been spent for that then to sell it cheap then build another down the track, what ever the price difference will just be added to another build so i cannot see the difference the money is already spent. If Brazil is serious about a modern carrier she would order one without the complication of the UK trying to get most of its money back on a current build. But if you must sell it cheap mates rates to Australia please!!






PS
For a bit of a light reading we could go half’s with NZ and make it an ANZAC carrier, NZ still has a Squadron of A4 Skyhawks in the CAS role and we have F18E/F Super Hornets strategic air defence role.......(btw not to be taken seriously)

agree the Navy would sacrifice almost anything rather than the carriers especially after their rather long planning stage to insure that wouldn't happen. I notise that the MoD magazine is down specifically because of the election. The April issue of Desider has come up despite their being a couple of contracts and other stuff.

 

[Sea Toby]

i don't see Brazil being able to afford to replace the old ex-Foch with a new QE anytime soon. I would think thinking in terms of a helicopter carrier is their best solution to replace her. And if they choose to go that route, possibly an ex-Invincible, ex-PdA, or ex-GG maybe the ticket in the future... Even with these ships I don't see Brazil buying any F-35Bs, and all of the Harriers available are ageing and spent.

If Brazil was able to buy a new carrier, something along the indigenious Indian carrier might be the ticket. But doing so will cost much more than buying an old light carrier to be used as a helicopter carrier...

Otherwise, maybe going in the direction of a new helicopter carrier could be the solution, something similar to a Mistral or a Juan Carlos BPEs.

 

[swerve]

Brazil bought Foch in order to be able to put fast jets to sea, not because of a desire for a helicopter carrier. The naval construction plan includes new amphibious ships (LPDs or LHDs) to replace old LSTs & LSDs (the Brazilian navy has 2 ex-USN Thomason class LSDs, 1 ex-Newport LST, & 2 ex-RN Round Table LSLs). The eventual replacement of Sao Paulo is a separate matter.

The GDP of Brazil at PPP is similar to those of Russia, the UK France or Italy. The nominal GDP is bigger than Russias. The economy is doing well: it escaped a recession, & is expected to grow very fast this year, maybe 7%. Why shouldn't it be able to afford an aircraft carrier, if it's willing to spend the money?

 

[1805]

I don't think Brazil would order and buy a new QE as I would agree they could probaby get a cheaper alternative from India. However if one of ours was sold at a reduced price it might work for both sides. Construction in the UK will have created a lot of employment and can live without two at first as we will not have the aircraft anyway and the helicopter role can be underaken by Ocean/Invincibles. We could then build a 3rd QE from 2020 onwards when general funding it better. This would provide: employment now, maintain UK ship building capability and improve RN funding over the next 4-6 years. The same is true if would sold cheaply to India. If you take the cost of delays, the artifical shipping of sections around the UK and the labour elements out of the QE could we sell one for £800-900m maybe cheaper?

 

[Systems Adict]

I don't think Brazil would order and buy a new QE as I would agree they could probaby get a cheaper alternative from India. However if one of ours was sold at a reduced price it might work for both sides. Construction in the UK will have created a lot of employment and can live without two at first as we will not have the aircraft anyway and the helicopter role can be underaken by Ocean/Invincibles. We could then build a 3rd QE from 2020 onwards when general funding it better. This would provide: employment now, maintain UK ship building capability and improve RN funding over the next 4-6 years. The same is true if would sold cheaply to India. If you take the cost of delays, the artifical shipping of sections around the UK and the labour elements out of the QE could we sell one for £800-900m maybe cheaper?

While this is all well & good in cloud cuckoo land, can we just have a moment of reality & normailty ??

QEC ship 01 is barely 45% complete. Only 1 major section has been shipped, with an estimated period of about 3-4 years before she puts to sea for the 1st time.

QEC ship 02 is, well, just plates at the moment, with possibly a few minor sections standing alone.

NOW....

What country is gonna buy a pile of steel ??

Face facts, IF & it's a BIG if, the UK govt decides to sell, 'the plans' for a 'QE' homogonised carrier, then countries like India & Brazil would be interested.

BUT....

That's a long way off & needs the Election (to get a govt that can make that decision), the SDR (to see if it's within the ideaology of the futre RN), & (something that most people forget), the agreement of the Aircraft Carrier Alliance.

After all, they are the commercial side of the design. It's THEIR companies hard work that has, in partnership with the RN / UK Govt, produced it & they will no doubt want to protect 'national' security of OUR design, while ensuring that some financial beneift / work comes their way, before 'buying' into any decision.

Anyways, that's my tuppence worth. Any comments ???

SA

 

[1805]

While this is all well & good in cloud cuckoo land, can we just have a moment of reality & normailty ??

QEC ship 01 is barely 45% complete. Only 1 major section has been shipped, with an estimated period of about 3-4 years before she puts to sea for the 1st time.

QEC ship 02 is, well, just plates at the moment, with possibly a few minor sections standing alone.

NOW....

What country is gonna buy a pile of steel ??

Face facts, IF & it's a BIG if, the UK govt decides to sell, 'the plans' for a 'QE' homogonised carrier, then countries like India & Brazil would be interested.

BUT....

That's a long way off & needs the Election (to get a govt that can make that decision), the SDR (to see if it's within the ideaology of the futre RN), & (something that most people forget), the agreement of the Aircraft Carrier Alliance.

After all, they are the commercial side of the design. It's THEIR companies hard work that has, in partnership with the RN / UK Govt, produced it & they will no doubt want to protect 'national' security of OUR design, while ensuring that some financial beneift / work comes their way, before 'buying' into any decision.

Anyways, that's my tuppence worth. Any comments ???

SA

Agreed timing is everything. Also Brazil has not that long ago purchased the Foch so they may not want to replace immediately anyway. But then if we are talking about 4-6 years time then maybe. This is something the UK Government has to/should offering. The ACA would have little say if a complete ship was sold? I suspect they would be only to hungry to sell a design, but then surely the UK MOD will own the design?

I don't have a problem with selling quite new ships if it keeps UK production lines in business.