StevoJH
The Bunker Group
Forget frigates, buy A400M or C-130J before your C130H's start falling out of the sky.
NZDF General discussion thread
- Thread starter NZLAV
- Start date
Getting them into the sky would be a fine thing.
Value For Money Exercise
For everyones information. I take some comfort that some capabilities have been ringfenced in the review. It also hints at the MOD and NZDF possbily merging.
The Ministry of Defence has just updated its website to include information regarding the external review and the associated terms of reference.
The following provides a more detailed summary of whats up for review and whats not...
For everyones information. I take some comfort that some capabilities have been ringfenced in the review. It also hints at the MOD and NZDF possbily merging.
The Ministry of Defence has just updated its website to include information regarding the external review and the associated terms of reference.
The following provides a more detailed summary of whats up for review and whats not...
Have noticed how NZ apparently has excess NZLAVs due to not being able to fully crew them and is therefore looking at selling around 30 or so. I would personally not like to see them wasted as we already have them so thought maybe just issue them to other units and re-role them. As it is, when we get new vehicles the reveiws recommend less and less numbers so probably by 2050 we'll be down to 3 LAVs, 10 trucks, 5 pinz and a van (should be easier to crew them however)
Could remove the turrets (maybe static mount at the range for shoots) and turn hulls into mortar carriers, ambos, fitters, comms etc or could even swap with the yanks for some pupose built units or even anti-tank or MGS and gain some launchers and 105mm capability.
Alternatively we could swap them with our aussie cousins for some bushmasters and gain a new tested and proven vehicle class wich could fill gap between armoured pinny and NZLAV, maybe some recon varients, QRF wagons, log etc. maybe even give a few to the Air force for a ADGie type role.
Hav'nt heard much about the mog/2228 replacements either but see army has just purchased some mercedes actros haulers so maybe for commonality purposes mercedes will be the brand of choice. would love to see some of those canadian AHSVS actros in nz green, mean looking trucks and look like they will sneeze at IEDs.
Have also been watching the RNZAF hercules LEP debacle brewing, lost jobs, overdue, un-proven??? Should buy 3 of the retired RAAF Hs as they shouldnt be too different, maybe just a paint job? then at least we would have the reccomended 8 and these delays and out of action hercs would not be such a problem as we would be able to have more back ups.
Even better would be just cut the losses now and buy the new Js as we are only extending old problems out a few more years for marginal reliability. 5 Js would be great, 8 Js would be better or 5 Js and 1 C-17(anzac maintainance deal) would be ideal.
dreams are free and recessions are real so I suppose only time will tell what the tool shed will look like in the next few years.
Could remove the turrets (maybe static mount at the range for shoots) and turn hulls into mortar carriers, ambos, fitters, comms etc or could even swap with the yanks for some pupose built units or even anti-tank or MGS and gain some launchers and 105mm capability.
Alternatively we could swap them with our aussie cousins for some bushmasters and gain a new tested and proven vehicle class wich could fill gap between armoured pinny and NZLAV, maybe some recon varients, QRF wagons, log etc. maybe even give a few to the Air force for a ADGie type role.
Hav'nt heard much about the mog/2228 replacements either but see army has just purchased some mercedes actros haulers so maybe for commonality purposes mercedes will be the brand of choice. would love to see some of those canadian AHSVS actros in nz green, mean looking trucks and look like they will sneeze at IEDs.
Have also been watching the RNZAF hercules LEP debacle brewing, lost jobs, overdue, un-proven??? Should buy 3 of the retired RAAF Hs as they shouldnt be too different, maybe just a paint job? then at least we would have the reccomended 8 and these delays and out of action hercs would not be such a problem as we would be able to have more back ups.
Even better would be just cut the losses now and buy the new Js as we are only extending old problems out a few more years for marginal reliability. 5 Js would be great, 8 Js would be better or 5 Js and 1 C-17(anzac maintainance deal) would be ideal.
dreams are free and recessions are real so I suppose only time will tell what the tool shed will look like in the next few years.
StevoJH
The Bunker Group
NZLAV=/= ASLAV. Doubt the ADF would take them.
Except they are probably completely worn out, would just temporarily delay the problem.
J's if you can plug into the ADF maintenance, otherwise it might even be worth looking into A400M. No point getting C-17 if you can only afford one.
This from the xtra business news yesterday, dealing with the fate of the C-130 contract. 92 jobs to go at Safe Air.
On Stuff .
The Government has also stated that progress has been made on the software issues. The first two upgraded aircraft should be completed by May, and the next aircraft inducted in July (at less thats the government view).
On Stuff .
The Government has also stated that progress has been made on the software issues. The first two upgraded aircraft should be completed by May, and the next aircraft inducted in July (at less thats the government view).
Last edited:
I guess what this assumes is that NZ would add to the ADF C-17 pool in return for a share of their use. Its also a concept worth exploring in the P-3 to P-8 replacement later down the line, but only if NZ doesn't attempt to nickel and dime.
I think the C-130J are still the only game in town unless there has been dramatic changes in the A400M program.
recce.k1
Well-Known Member
The C130 LEP offers "interesting" possibilities, should the Govt be interested eg should the upgrade turn out to be reasonably successful, the Govt "could" perhaps buy 3 of the RAAF worn out H's dirt cheap and put them thru the upgrade programme too, to give the RNZAF the 8 aircraft they required for taskings, as a stop gap measure (for several more years) until perhaps the A400's teething troubles are sorted and they enter service overseas etc.
Or it could call it quits after the 5th upgrade and buy 3 new J's (to give a mix of 8 aircraft) - which in my mind would be sensible (after all worldwide the H's will start being withdrawn from frontline service, NZ may as well get on board with the J for operational/support/training reasons etc).
I'd advocate holding off ordering the A400 until it is proven, which should be within the next 2-3 years etc (eg the last Govt was remarkable for the shear amount of new and untried/unproven platforms being put into service eg LAV3, Project Protector, C130/P3 upgrades & delays), let's stick with proven and off the shelf for a change, again.
In the newspapers today, an (oddly written, almost provocative) article about the defence whitepaper but with some reasonable information (eg Frigate/C130/P3 replacement planning) when the experts are given a chance to speak.
Cracks in NZ armour despite big spendup | Stuff.co.nz
Whilst it appears the C130/P3's could potentially last until 2020/2025 (due to their structural upgrades) and the Frigates/Seasprites until 2030 (more like mid 2020's), I'm assuming that planning for these will start sooner and in fact the replacements would enter service before those dates (after all does NZ wish to have to keep upgrading them until these dates? I doubt it). The article could have been clearer in this respect (and the journo was referring to this at the beginning of the article which really was irrelevant).
Another article by the same reporter on defence recruiting etc.
Tough times fill Defence ranks | Stuff.co.nz
And from a couple of days ago an article from the DomPost's resident defence journo about the RNZN heading over to Hawaii and the US for the first time since the 1980's, good progress being made to restore the relationship one step at a time.
NZ frigate visit to US first in 25 years | Stuff.co.nz
Or it could call it quits after the 5th upgrade and buy 3 new J's (to give a mix of 8 aircraft) - which in my mind would be sensible (after all worldwide the H's will start being withdrawn from frontline service, NZ may as well get on board with the J for operational/support/training reasons etc).
I'd advocate holding off ordering the A400 until it is proven, which should be within the next 2-3 years etc (eg the last Govt was remarkable for the shear amount of new and untried/unproven platforms being put into service eg LAV3, Project Protector, C130/P3 upgrades & delays), let's stick with proven and off the shelf for a change, again.
In the newspapers today, an (oddly written, almost provocative) article about the defence whitepaper but with some reasonable information (eg Frigate/C130/P3 replacement planning) when the experts are given a chance to speak.
Cracks in NZ armour despite big spendup | Stuff.co.nz
Whilst it appears the C130/P3's could potentially last until 2020/2025 (due to their structural upgrades) and the Frigates/Seasprites until 2030 (more like mid 2020's), I'm assuming that planning for these will start sooner and in fact the replacements would enter service before those dates (after all does NZ wish to have to keep upgrading them until these dates? I doubt it). The article could have been clearer in this respect (and the journo was referring to this at the beginning of the article which really was irrelevant).
Another article by the same reporter on defence recruiting etc.
Tough times fill Defence ranks | Stuff.co.nz
And from a couple of days ago an article from the DomPost's resident defence journo about the RNZN heading over to Hawaii and the US for the first time since the 1980's, good progress being made to restore the relationship one step at a time.
NZ frigate visit to US first in 25 years | Stuff.co.nz
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Personally, I do not think that the NZDF should be looking to purchase any of the A400M. From what I understand, the LEP done on the RNZAF -H Hercules should allow the airframes to continue serving until ~2015-2017. Unfortunately, I do not think that the A400M would be ready and available to the RNZAF in that timeframe. As I understand it, the currently delivery schedule is something like two or three years behind schedule, with a price hike expected due to delays and additional development costs.
What this means for the RNZAF is that the A400M would have little or no operational track record at the point in which the aircraft would need to be entered for consideration as the C-130H Hercules replacement. Also, any Kiwi order would need to wait until programme nations and others who had 'pre-ordered' the A400M received their aircraft, unless another country could be induced to forego their delivery slot(s). Given how a number of small military orders have gone for Australia and NZ lately, it would seem that a MOTS purchase would be better than being a launch customer for a new transport. Particularly when the current tactical lift airfleet is as old if not older than the pilots flying them.
Rather, several (8-9 seem about right) C-130J, or better still KC-130J Herc II's should be gradually purchased and phased in, as the C-130H's are phased out. Additional, smaller twin-engined aircraft like the C-27J, CN-235 or CN-295 should also be purchased. The smaller aircraft should have be fitted with sensors and hardpoints in such a way as to allow it to be re-roled between tranport and MPA roles, and possibly even CAS depending on the type required.
-Cheers
Last edited:
t68
Well-Known Member
Why would the Kiwis get the air refuelling version of the of the J,exept for being a force multiplier for other air forces which would come in handy for Australia or the US in coalition ops,would the extra expense be worth it in a Kiwi perspective.
Agreed NZ should wait and see about the A400M as it is not a known value a the present time, with Australia mulling over what to replace the Caribou aircraft and should the RAAF go down the C27J Spartan way and if there is any life in the H model, Australia should if NZ is willing sell the H Herc cheap to NZ and replace with additional C17 Globemaster aircraft, might buy the RNZAF time to settle on a replacement airlifter being either A400M or C130J.
Agreed NZ should wait and see about the A400M as it is not a known value a the present time, with Australia mulling over what to replace the Caribou aircraft and should the RAAF go down the C27J Spartan way and if there is any life in the H model, Australia should if NZ is willing sell the H Herc cheap to NZ and replace with additional C17 Globemaster aircraft, might buy the RNZAF time to settle on a replacement airlifter being either A400M or C130J.
What with the contractual tie up between LM and the RNZAF and further announcements that may include LM, it would seem that they are the front runners. A400’s are out in my view – cost per capability – regional orphan – contractual matters - politics etc.
We will have 3 rebuilt H’s due back in service through 2010/11 and we could get them through to the end of the decade. What I would consider is leaving the surviving original H’s unchanged for the short term and introducing the first tranche of 2 new C-130J-30’s with the target of 2015 to get them fully in services with the second tranche following EOL of the updated H’s in the second half of the decade. Also, no more second hand worn out C-130H’s please.
This then leaves the 2nd tier multi-role platform. Lockheed are building up a local logistic infrastructure thus the HC-27J utilising the MPA system looks to be a sensible choice if C-130J’s are on their way. The only drawback is that their cost is escalating up to US$40m an airframe based on the recent US 2010 FY Defence procurement budget. I do not know how they have sliced and diced the contract – but it gives a likely figure to work with. What could be done though is ordering a first tranche of 4 now, with 2 sets of MPA modules and training simulator at a cost of roughly US160m and another tranche of 2 mid decade. With 6 HC-27J’s and 6 C-130J-30’s as well as the 2 B757’s which should last to 2025, it would be about the right size transport fleet for the RNZAF circa 2020 taking into account a modest tasking creep over the decade.
Personally I believe that this should be a priority for the NZDF along with a second tranche of 3 A-109LUH’s in terms of aviation procurement. Getting the C-27J’s onboard quickly would take the pressure off transport tasking and Orion tasking. We would be looking at a bit of a price tag though but it isn’t avoidable. Three new build A-109LUH’s would come in at around NZ$60m and four C-27J’s would come in around NZ$225m on best guestimates.
I have to add that if by some miracle the C-17 can stretch out its production run to 2015 I would order the last 2 to be built and drop 2 of the C-130J's to pay for it if I had my way. Even sell the B757's which would find buyers either military or commercial. Both C-17's to be added to ANZAC pool and used on the Operation Deep Freeze pool down to the ice.
We will have 3 rebuilt H’s due back in service through 2010/11 and we could get them through to the end of the decade. What I would consider is leaving the surviving original H’s unchanged for the short term and introducing the first tranche of 2 new C-130J-30’s with the target of 2015 to get them fully in services with the second tranche following EOL of the updated H’s in the second half of the decade. Also, no more second hand worn out C-130H’s please.
This then leaves the 2nd tier multi-role platform. Lockheed are building up a local logistic infrastructure thus the HC-27J utilising the MPA system looks to be a sensible choice if C-130J’s are on their way. The only drawback is that their cost is escalating up to US$40m an airframe based on the recent US 2010 FY Defence procurement budget. I do not know how they have sliced and diced the contract – but it gives a likely figure to work with. What could be done though is ordering a first tranche of 4 now, with 2 sets of MPA modules and training simulator at a cost of roughly US160m and another tranche of 2 mid decade. With 6 HC-27J’s and 6 C-130J-30’s as well as the 2 B757’s which should last to 2025, it would be about the right size transport fleet for the RNZAF circa 2020 taking into account a modest tasking creep over the decade.
Personally I believe that this should be a priority for the NZDF along with a second tranche of 3 A-109LUH’s in terms of aviation procurement. Getting the C-27J’s onboard quickly would take the pressure off transport tasking and Orion tasking. We would be looking at a bit of a price tag though but it isn’t avoidable. Three new build A-109LUH’s would come in at around NZ$60m and four C-27J’s would come in around NZ$225m on best guestimates.
I have to add that if by some miracle the C-17 can stretch out its production run to 2015 I would order the last 2 to be built and drop 2 of the C-130J's to pay for it if I had my way. Even sell the B757's which would find buyers either military or commercial. Both C-17's to be added to ANZAC pool and used on the Operation Deep Freeze pool down to the ice.
are Js completely different to Hs? I am sure our maintainers can adapt and overcome. would obviously be an easier transition from one model to another instead of to a new (un-proven) make entirely.
If the C-17 is added to an ANZAC pool in terms of training, maintainence and spares and is just financed, crewed and directed by NZ then surely it can only be considered as an asset, probably for both countries if used jointly.
sorry not so savvy with these quote boxes but I guess it stillputs in the replies
Thanks
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
As I understand it the refueler variant of the Herc II is a little bit more expensive than the regular, how much I do not know.
My thinking behind the RNZAF getting refueling Herc II's is due to the fact that being able to conduct in-flight refueling is indeed a force multiplying capability which the NZDF completely lacks. Being able to do so in the future can be used to boost some Kiwi capabilities, as well as providing an ability which can be used by allied nations.
Given how many areas that need to be essentially rebuilt within the NZDF, either due to systems being retired without replacement or down-sized to the point where deployments are no longer sustainable, having something else to offer friends and allies is important IMO. In this case, while providing personnel to make up the 'pointy end' of a spear might not be an option again for some time, being able to providing logistical support through tankers (aerial and maritime) as well as cargo lift (again, aerial and maritime) and other support functions would be useful. A failure or inability to provide some sort of benefit to friends and allies could lead to NZ being considered 'irrelevant' in situations where NZ has an interest.
-Cheers
PS I might end up PM'ing some Kiwi members about the Kiwi hospital system and statistics on certain times of crimes/injuries.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
As I understand it, there is a good deal of difference between the two. The airframe itself is basically the same, but the engines and electronics are completely different. The -J has a 'glass' cockpit' which I believe is supposed to provide better information to the flight crew during operation than the various dials and gauges from older cockpits. Then again, I am not a pilot so I do not know for certain.
It is something which the current Herc pilots would need to transition from, but otherwise I would imagine it should not be too difficult of a change.
Given a choice, I would also have the NZDF purchase a few C-27J Spartans, as there would be commonality with any C-130J Herc II's in terms of engines and avionics. Unfortunately, I am unaware of any proposed MPA versions of the C-27J. However, should Lockheed Martin get some encouragement to engage in such developments as a lower cost alternative to the P-8 Poseidon, that could change. Particularly if Lockheed Martin took some of their experience from the P-3 Orion and developing the HC-144 Ocean Sentry for the Deepwater programme Hercules and applied it to some variant of the C-27J Spartan. In particular creating plug-in mission system stations similar to the Mission System Pallet.
-Cheers
Somewhat off topic, but I see that the esteemed Sir Geoffrey is again seeking to fix something which (in my opinion) isn't remotely broke:
Police, firefighters, soldiers fight for alcohol rights
Police, firefighters, soldiers fight for alcohol rights
Its funny how these guys who make all the decisions expect these services to risk their lives and work in trying and difficult situations and yet find it so easy to remove their perks so readily.
Lets be honest pay in these jobs is not always the best so any form of making life easier is a great help and morale booster.
I also do not see what would be gained from changing something that has been in place for years other than some big wig in a Wellington office justifying his job in these role questioning times.
Any drinking related problems within the services would not be solved by forcing smaller clubs to close it would just move them into civilian establishments where they would be less able to be sorted in a controlled enviroment and rectified in house.
The stuff articles quoted earlier suggest that the contract between Safe Air and LM has been cancelled. In additon the Minister of Defence suggests the problems with the electronics will be fixed on A/C one and two by the end of May and the remaining A/C will start going through in July.
If the articles are correct I see no need to consider replacing the the K model straight away. An operationally critical issue for NZ is the abilty to operate from differing airfield conditions in the South Pacific. To that end the Spec's for the A400 appear superior to the C-130J (Spec Book) (The Spec book as a comparsion of capabilities to the A400). I also seem to recall some comments made around the time of East Timor, that J model being able to handle the landings at Suai. In terms of number I believe that the min number for both the C-130 and P3 replacements is 5 of each (ignoring issues of modularity). It allows for 1 in Depot Maint, 1 on 24 hour standby and 3 for operations.
If NZ was to consider the replacement of the K model with J models, in conjuction with the needs for a medium range MPA then clearly the C-27, given the compability would ease the logistics burden. An initial purchase of 4 of these could be part of a phased transition to the J model, rather than operating a mixed fleet of H and J. As pointed out their is no MPA version of the C27 but a link to a Canadian site suggests conversion and operation in the MPA role may not be to difficult.
If anything I think the J model will win on price, with the cancelled South African A400 for 8 aircraft increasing from based on the comments in Wikipedia from $US2billion to $US5billion
LM = Lockheed Martin not L3. The LM contract for logistical support was signed this February and worth around NZ$100m. Depending the outcome of some other projects around the region Lockheed there is some speculation that they could be even busier around these parts.
I don't understand the reference to the K model - the RAF used the K where as we and the Aussies use the H.
Technically the L3 contract has not been actually cancelled per se it is being 'enforced' by the NZ government similar to some other contracts the MoD has had difficulty with in recent years.
Yes you are correct - I keep forgetting that the C-130H didn't follow the practice of using the K designation.
LM - Ah that contract (now I'm with you).
The stuff and xtra news articles all suggest that Safe Airs invovlement has been canned. I wasn't referring to the main contractor having the contract cancelled as the Minister clearly indicates that the MOD is still working with the contractor to resolve the issue.
recce.k1
Well-Known Member
@ Todjaeger & T68 - re: KC-130J
I agree this sounds good in theory in terms of NZDF "force multipliers" and assisting with coalition ops etc, but I suspect with the absence of a NZ air combat force, to be the primary "sponsor" of an air-refueling capability, alas probably means the NZ Govt sees this as a much lower priority for funding in the scheme of things - probably way down the list because in reality it wouldn't be used alot (nor have a dual civilian purpose).
However upon reading Lucas' C130J-30 spec sheet at face value I now wonder whether such a capability could actually be justified, as a higher priority, and for both military-civil purposes, assuming my assumptions are correct? On the second page (pg1) it says "C-130 serve as aerial tanker and ground refuelers". Does this mean that via drop tanks it could refuel other aircraft on the tarmac (in extreme situations, like places with no physical fueling facilities)? Or does it mean it can carry an internal fuel storage tank system, suitable for either off-loading in its physical entirety or for fuel distribution to other tanker vehicles whilst on the tarmac? If it could carry an internal storage system (rather than simply drop tanks) as such then surely this would be critical to supporting an Army or joint NZDF (or coalition) deployment. We know how critical the replenishment vessels were for East Timor 99 to resupply fuel and water for the deployed forces etc, so presumably a KC-130J type that could get into remote areas where the forces are based would be crucial. Similarly for (Pacific) civilian purposes, such a potential aircraft could assist with fuel and water deliveries post cyclone disasters (and alot of island communities rely on diesel generators for their power, in the absence of dams and fossil fuel power plant infrastrucure etc).
This useful C130J article The C-130J: New Hercules & Old Bottlenecks makes interesting reading but only talks about the C130J in the traditional air refueling role via an optional aerial refueling system, so maybe this is all academic.
Interesting in the DID article it talks about the experiences in hot and high climates whereby it is said that 1J can do the work of 3H's.
In terms of the RNZAF/NZDF, if the C130 LEP is to continue with aircraft 3-5, then there could be some merit in leasing/buying one worn out RAAF H to ensure NZ always has 5 airframes on the line (i.e. whilst one aircraft is being upgraded) but not mod it to the LEP standard.
Despite the upgraded H's extending their usefulness for another 10 years, no doubt they will be more efficient in many ways to the original H's, but they still have the old engines (and will they still have 4 flight crew members or 2 like the J?), to me the better payload sizes/range of the extended C130J-30 would be a logical aircraft for NZ to purchase much, much sooner (ie now) than wait until the H's retire in about 2020 etc. Presumably the C130H LEP glass cockpit and avionics are very close to the J's in terms of layout/functions, training and commonality etc and having the 2 types (eg 3x new C130J-30's) in service concurrently thus may not be an issue? With NZ deploying a J model on a coalition operation at least there would be support commonality etc. The 5x H's (or 2 if the LEP doesn't continue) would still be viable backup aircraft and be used for more local/regional taskings.
So I'd say by 2020 aim for a C130J-30 fleet of 5 (to 8) aircraft AND a couple of A400/C17 types for lifting the Army's heavier vehicles (LAV's), next/future generation mine resistant vehicles, NH90's etc. Add in say 3x C27/CN-235/295 medium range transports (plus another 3 or so modular/pallet MPA versions and another 3 or so VIP/advanced trainers) to give around 8-10 medium range multi task aircraft (plus the 2x 757's) and NZ's airlift would be back on par with what we used to have (but now with much all-rounder and greater capabilities than the 5x C130/10x Andover/3x F27/2x B727/3x C421 predecessors etc).
I agree this sounds good in theory in terms of NZDF "force multipliers" and assisting with coalition ops etc, but I suspect with the absence of a NZ air combat force, to be the primary "sponsor" of an air-refueling capability, alas probably means the NZ Govt sees this as a much lower priority for funding in the scheme of things - probably way down the list because in reality it wouldn't be used alot (nor have a dual civilian purpose).
However upon reading Lucas' C130J-30 spec sheet at face value I now wonder whether such a capability could actually be justified, as a higher priority, and for both military-civil purposes, assuming my assumptions are correct? On the second page (pg1) it says "C-130 serve as aerial tanker and ground refuelers". Does this mean that via drop tanks it could refuel other aircraft on the tarmac (in extreme situations, like places with no physical fueling facilities)? Or does it mean it can carry an internal fuel storage tank system, suitable for either off-loading in its physical entirety or for fuel distribution to other tanker vehicles whilst on the tarmac? If it could carry an internal storage system (rather than simply drop tanks) as such then surely this would be critical to supporting an Army or joint NZDF (or coalition) deployment. We know how critical the replenishment vessels were for East Timor 99 to resupply fuel and water for the deployed forces etc, so presumably a KC-130J type that could get into remote areas where the forces are based would be crucial. Similarly for (Pacific) civilian purposes, such a potential aircraft could assist with fuel and water deliveries post cyclone disasters (and alot of island communities rely on diesel generators for their power, in the absence of dams and fossil fuel power plant infrastrucure etc).
This useful C130J article The C-130J: New Hercules & Old Bottlenecks makes interesting reading but only talks about the C130J in the traditional air refueling role via an optional aerial refueling system, so maybe this is all academic.
Interesting in the DID article it talks about the experiences in hot and high climates whereby it is said that 1J can do the work of 3H's.
In terms of the RNZAF/NZDF, if the C130 LEP is to continue with aircraft 3-5, then there could be some merit in leasing/buying one worn out RAAF H to ensure NZ always has 5 airframes on the line (i.e. whilst one aircraft is being upgraded) but not mod it to the LEP standard.
Despite the upgraded H's extending their usefulness for another 10 years, no doubt they will be more efficient in many ways to the original H's, but they still have the old engines (and will they still have 4 flight crew members or 2 like the J?), to me the better payload sizes/range of the extended C130J-30 would be a logical aircraft for NZ to purchase much, much sooner (ie now) than wait until the H's retire in about 2020 etc. Presumably the C130H LEP glass cockpit and avionics are very close to the J's in terms of layout/functions, training and commonality etc and having the 2 types (eg 3x new C130J-30's) in service concurrently thus may not be an issue? With NZ deploying a J model on a coalition operation at least there would be support commonality etc. The 5x H's (or 2 if the LEP doesn't continue) would still be viable backup aircraft and be used for more local/regional taskings.
So I'd say by 2020 aim for a C130J-30 fleet of 5 (to 8) aircraft AND a couple of A400/C17 types for lifting the Army's heavier vehicles (LAV's), next/future generation mine resistant vehicles, NH90's etc. Add in say 3x C27/CN-235/295 medium range transports (plus another 3 or so modular/pallet MPA versions and another 3 or so VIP/advanced trainers) to give around 8-10 medium range multi task aircraft (plus the 2x 757's) and NZ's airlift would be back on par with what we used to have (but now with much all-rounder and greater capabilities than the 5x C130/10x Andover/3x F27/2x B727/3x C421 predecessors etc).