Official Chengdu J-20 Discussion Thread

[Kilo 2-3]

I think you're underestimating China's industrial base a little...

China certainly has the industrial capacity, but its indigenous aviation industry still has a few years to go. Licensed production of Western civilian aircraft and airlines as well as the production of designs like the J-11/Su-30 and the J-10 will also help build this know-how, even if they are a far cry from an F-22/J-XX level platform.

I don't doubt China will be able to build a J-XX, but it's still a few years off, in my opinion.

 

[latenlazy]

China certainly has the industrial capacity, but its indigenous aviation industry still has a few years to go. Licensed production of Western civilian aircraft and airlines as well as the production of designs like the J-11/Su-30 and the J-10 will also help build this know-how, even if they are a far cry from an F-22/J-XX level platform.

I don't doubt China will be able to build a J-XX, but it's still a few years off, in my opinion.

It doesn't seem like being able to build a 5th generation fighter on the level of the F-22 and F-35 is as dependent on how advanced a country's aerospace industry is though. The most key elements to what separates the F-22 and F-35 from the pack are its electronics and materials, both of which China is not nearly as behind on. Of the elements in China's aerospace industry that might be a problem it's really only the engine that's a potential bottleneck.

 

[Feanor]

It doesn't seem like being able to build a 5th generation fighter on the level of the F-22 and F-35 is as dependent on how advanced a country's aerospace industry is though. The most key elements to what separates the F-22 and F-35 from the pack are its electronics and materials, both of which China is not nearly as behind on. Of the elements in China's aerospace industry that might be a problem it's really only the engine that's a potential bottleneck.

And the radars. And the long range missiles. And the signal management technology. And the IR sensors. Oh wait.....

 

[latenlazy]

And the radars. And the long range missiles. And the signal management technology. And the IR sensors. Oh wait.....

Electronically scanned radars have just as much to do advancement of the electronic industry. Signal management is a combination of factors, including airframe design, hardware and software, and materials. You've got me on long range missiles though. That's completely aerospace.

The "Stealth" field itself is not solely dependent on how advanced a country's aerospace industry is though, but was constructed for its own purpose through a combination of other fields. With that in mind, I think it's hard to tell just how far along China is by pointing at any one industry. The US is far ahead by a good 50 years, but it's probably already developing technology that will be used in 6th and 7th generation platforms (the US's bottleneck is its political will, budget issues, and security needs). Meanwhile, China has the advantage of capitalizing on prior knowledge, a growing population of engineers, technological espionage, and a healthy dose of brain re-gain through scholars who began going abroad in the 70s. That said, I personally believe it's very hard to gauge where China's at particularly because it will continue to keep tight lipped until or even after first flight (at least until it finds benefit in doing otherwise), but I wouldn't advise gauging its progress solely by its aerospace industry (which while not top in the world, is quickly approaching "good enough" for the requirements of a 5th generation fighter).

 

[Kilo 2-3]

Electronically scanned radars have just as much to do advancement of the electronic industry. Signal management is a combination of factors, including airframe design, hardware and software, and materials. You've got me on long range missiles though. That's completely aerospace.

The "Stealth" field itself is not solely dependent on how advanced a country's aerospace industry is though, but was constructed for its own purpose through a combination of other fields. With that in mind, I think it's hard to tell just how far along China is by pointing at any one industry. The US is far ahead by a good 50 years, but it's probably already developing technology that will be used in 6th and 7th generation platforms (the US's bottleneck is its political will, budget issues, and security needs). Meanwhile, China has the advantage of capitalizing on prior knowledge, a growing population of engineers, technological espionage, and a healthy dose of brain re-gain through scholars who began going abroad in the 70s. That said, I personally believe it's very hard to gauge where China's at particularly because it will continue to keep tight lipped until or even after first flight (at least until it finds benefit in doing otherwise), but I wouldn't advise gauging its progress solely by its aerospace industry (which while not top in the world, is quickly approaching "good enough" for the requirements of a 5th generation fighter).

Interesting anlaysis. You make some very valid points.

I'd also add that China's rather good at synthesis, stealing, borrowing, or buying other people's technology and cobbling the technologies together (The J-10/Lavi itself and then the use of foreign know-how in building its IRST)

Still, even this takes time, so I'm of the mind that a 5th Gen fighter won't reach operational squadrons in China until 2018-2020. Add a few months or years for operational conversion training and the realistic time frame widens a bit more.

It may fly as a prototype before then, but in my opinion, the J-XX will not be a front-line fighter in this decade.

 

[Chrisious]

Future fighter

Have read an early report that the Varyag Aircraft carrier may have left dry dock, will be interresting to know what will be used on it's flight deck. Believe the authorities where originally interrested in Russian jets though believe a J-11 was seen on a constructed practice deck.

 

[Kilo 2-3]

Have read an early report that the Varyag Aircraft carrier may have left dry dock, will be interresting to know what will be used on it's flight deck. Believe the authorities where originally interrested in Russian jets though believe a J-11 was seen on a constructed practice deck.

Wasn't that J-11 was just an Su-33 mockup though? And didn't the Russians deny an Su-33 sale to the Chinese a while back?

 

[Chrisious]

Mock-up

Hi Kilo 2-3

Couldn't really verify other than what has been reported, report also claims a Z-15 helicopter was also spotted on it. Have seen pictures of the mock-up flight deck (I believe) looks pretty bizarre, would you fancy putting down on it? Russia may have stood back on selling the Su-33 (though who knows?) think there was an original agreement for 50 at $2.5billion back in 2007. Believe a senior pilot may have inferred the J-10 could be used as a carrier variant early on, though should imagine this will only reveal itself in time. Only thing that would really surprise is if the Minsk put on a show, though I think it is definitely a tourist attraction.

 

[Feanor]

China has the T-10K prototype purchased from Ukraine. It tried to acquire 2 Su-33s from Russia. They were denied, being told that the purchase was too small, and not worth-while. Then China offered to buy 14. They were told that 24 was the minimum accepted purchase size. After that the talks pretty much bogged down.

 

[Chrisious]

T-10k

Given the T-10K appears to have been bought to study the folding wings and arrester gear this may fit. Believe the Yak 141 may have been bought as well, though possibly only as a design study not to mention a Harrier (minus engine).

 

[Feanor]

Yak-141? Which prototype? Iirc only 3 or 4 were built and they're all more or less accounted for.

EDIT: Yes, China couldn't have gotten any of them. The 48-0 airframe was a static airframe, not even an aircraft. The 48-1 airframe was for ground tests. 48-2 and 48-3, the two flying prototypes, are on public displays. If you're talking about ToT transfers, a source would be appreciated.

 

[Chrisious]

Yak 141

Have looked around believe the engineering data and sale rights on the Tumansky R-79 turbofan used in the Yak were bought, not an airframe this in the 90's.

 

[tphuang]

they've picked J-11 for naval fighter, it's not going to be J-10. You simply can't get the same range/payload with J-10 as you do with J-11. And for naval warfare, it's a lot more important for the fighter to be able to carry a couple of anti-ship missiles than just being able to provide aerial defence. I think the Su-33 has pretty much died off. It's not going to happen. China will go alone on this. They also prossibly got a su-25UTG from Ukrainians on top of the T-10K.

 

[King Comm]

To design and produce 5th Gen fighters, you need a defense industrial base to support that work. China wants it, but is far from it. Their technological knowledge is improving, but they are still not close to having the ability to produce defense platforms on the order they would like, at least not on an indigenous basis. As noted below, to produce an avionics suites and other high-tech hardware required to complete a complex puzzle like this, a 21 C industrial base is requisite. No 21 C DIB, no 5th Gen fighter.

What about F-22 then? After all, it's an 80's design built using 90's technologies.

Aviation and related fields have grown immensely since then, and the Chinese have not been living under a rock during the past 20 years, Just look at JF-17, the low end 4th gen fighter, it has two powerful weapon and management computers; integrated electronic warfare, radar and missile approach warning suites; and distributed power management were all unavailable when 4th gen fighters first appeared, while large LERX are DSI are post-F-22 developments,

 

[Feanor]

they've picked J-11 for naval fighter, it's not going to be J-10. You simply can't get the same range/payload with J-10 as you do with J-11. And for naval warfare, it's a lot more important for the fighter to be able to carry a couple of anti-ship missiles than just being able to provide aerial defence. I think the Su-33 has pretty much died off. It's not going to happen. China will go alone on this. They also prossibly got a su-25UTG from Ukrainians on top of the T-10K.

Same question, as with the Yak-141... which aircraft did they get? Only iirc 10 were ever built (unless you mean the Su-25UBP, but those are post-Soviet, and a Russian mod of a Su-25UB for carrier operations). Those 10 were all in service with iirc 279th AVMF Air Regiment, all in the Northern Fleet. How would any of them have been in Ukraine? Most of the UTGs remain in service, with iirc some lost to accidents, and just poor maintenance.

A source would be nice. Even if it's a dubious one. I'm curious.

 

[Chrisious]

Yak 141

P.S Although I didn't leave source info for the Yak 141 it is easy to find, having reminded myself seem to recall a slight political ruckus at the time of the sale. Interestingly 48-3 crashed and burned on the Admiral Gorshkov though was repaired before been put on display. The pilot ejected safely, video shows the incident also some slightly clearer vids on youtube though this seemed a suitable montage.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ffCFlbNa3c"]YouTube- Yakovlev YAK 141 Freestyle Tribute[/ame]

 

[tphuang]

Same question, as with the Yak-141... which aircraft did they get? Only iirc 10 were ever built (unless you mean the Su-25UBP, but those are post-Soviet, and a Russian mod of a Su-25UB for carrier operations). Those 10 were all in service with iirc 279th AVMF Air Regiment, all in the Northern Fleet. How would any of them have been in Ukraine? Most of the UTGs remain in service, with iirc some lost to accidents, and just poor maintenance.

A source would be nice. Even if it's a dubious one. I'm curious.

No clue about Yak-141. I never got any sense that China got its hands on that.

As for Su-25UTG, I got that from one of Kanwa's interview with the Russians. I'd have to dig up the article but one of the Su-25UTG ended up with Ukrainians and they don't know what happened to it. So, it is speculated that China probably bought that one also to help it design possibly future naval trainer in the same mode.

 

[Feanor]

Unless one was at NITKA for some reason, I don't know how it would've ended up in Ukraine. All were assigned to the same AVMF base with the Su-33s and the Kuznetsov.

 

[Chrisious]

Think at the time it was thought that the authorities lacked the ability to work with the YAK turbofan. Interestingly (tapping onto the PAK-FA a little) also think the modified J-10 included a modified nose cone, which suggested it was been modied for an AESA system. Though I won't stray away from the J-11, now that it has been brought up in this discussion.

 

[syahbana]

J-XX - "Saingan"

Sebuah fakta yang harus dihadapi.
Kebangkitan China setelah membuka diri adalah kenyataan yang harus bisa diterima dengan sudut pandang yang positif.
Secara militer mereka mulai menakutkan, itu harus diakui, dan secara ekonomi mereka mulai mengancam itu juga harus diwaspadai.
J-XX, adalah wujud ambisi mereka dalam menguasai wilayah mereka sendiri, dan melebarkan pengaruhnya di seentero dunia.
Adalah kenyataan, China akan menjadi salah satu adidaya baru, itu harus sangat diperhitungkan USA.
J-XX, jelas merupakan kolaborasi Rusia - China, mungkin merupakan buah dari sebuah kesalahan strategi pendekatan terhadap Rusia, terlepas dari kenyataan bahwa Rusia membutuhkan uang China untuk biaya riset dan pengembangan senjata mereka sendiri.:smilie