Argentinian blockade of the falklands

[Marc 1]

If Oil is found in the exclusion zone Stanley will turn into Aberdeen, with Anglo-Australian, UK, US & Canadian companies flocking to the islands thus expanding the current population, this represents a worst case scenario for the Argentines because it ties in more than just the UK. The US needs to secure future reserves and is wary of South American politicking, having a friendly source of carbons in the South Atlantic is a win, win scenario for them.
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All the nations you just mentioned are Anglo and Protestant orientated, and they will be digging for oil in an area that is mostly Catholic and Latin, this will cause more anger across Latin America. This is going to get interesting if a massive deposit of oil is found, and Latin nations see themselves as getting poorer and the Anglos richer. This would play right into the hands of leaders like Chavez and friends.

When it comes to the oil companies, I doubt that the nationality of the company will be important, nor will who it really matter who has ownership of the land.

I think you'll find the oil companies regardless of where they are based are businesses - in real terms they will just want stability, a reasonable assurance that all their plant, equipment and output from the region won't be 'nationalised overnight. At this stage, that probably looks like the UK, however if the Argentines (or even the Calathumpians) do get the islands through negotiation or force, then be under no misapprehension, BP, Shell, Exxon, Gazprom etc will be looking to make a profit from all that oil, regardless who's flag is flying from government hose in Stanley.

 

[TIN MAN]

When it comes to the oil companies, I doubt that the nationality of the company will be important, nor will who it really matter who has ownership of the land.

I think you'll find the oil companies regardless of where they are based are businesses - in real terms they will just want stability, a reasonable assurance that all their plant, equipment and output from the region won't be 'nationalised overnight. At this stage, that probably looks like the UK, however if the Argentines (or even the Calathumpians) do get the islands through negotiation or force, then be under no misapprehension, BP, Shell, Exxon, Gazprom etc will be looking to make a profit from all that oil, regardless who's flag is flying from government hose in Stanley.

...And the saga continues.... HMS Sceptre, Swiftsure class SSN and the oldest working warship/boat in the RN has arrived in the Falklands area. It was commissioned way back in 1978, but she has teeth and has been completely modernized, Spearfish torpedo`s, TLam Tomahawk and Sub Harpoon ASMs.

I don`t think the boat will be patrolling off Argentina`s main naval base as the waters there are only 200m in depth, although RN SSN`s patrolled in those waters for years after the conflict in `82., as a "visible" deterrent. I have an ex- submariner mate who knew about those patrols back then.

I hope everybody keeps their heads.

Falkland Islands oil row: Navy attack submarine HMS Sceptre dispatched | Mail Online

 

[StevoJH]

...And the saga continues.... HMS Sceptre, Swiftsure class SSN and the oldest working warship/boat in the RN has arrived in the Falklands area. It was commissioned way back in 1978, but she has teeth and has been completely modernized, Spearfish torpedo`s, TLam Tomahawk and Sub Harpoon ASMs.

I don`t think the boat will be patrolling off Argentina`s main naval base as the waters there are only 200m in depth, although RN SSN`s patrolled in those waters for years after the conflict in `82., as a "visible" deterrent. I have an ex- submariner mate who knew about those patrols back then.

I hope everybody keeps their heads.

Falkland Islands oil row: Navy attack submarine HMS Sceptre dispatched | Mail Online

The South Africans announced last month that she had applied to visit Simonstown late this month.

 

[Palnatoke]

I am confident, that the UK will not hand over the falklands, and if the argentinans wants to fight over it, I am even more confident that the UK will give them an even worse beating, than the last time.

In short this is about a country that has difficulties paying her own bills that tries to do some "national get together" over an issue that only surporters/deniers of a former millitary dictorship that tortured and raped young students think is just.

If spain can make some money by selling aging mirage planes to these argentinian politicians who on serveral occasions has ran a country( that should be a rich country) into the ground, we should all be happy and congratulate the spanish on their good business skills.

 

[swerve]

It's recently been reported that Argentina is buying some ex-Jordanian Mirage F.1s.

 

[outsider]

According to Wiki. the Mirage F1 has a combat radius of only 265 miles - not enough to reach the Falklands without refueling unless they are carrying drop tanks.

 

[swerve]

AFAIK they're wanted as replacements for worn-out old Mirage III fighters, to restore Argentinas air defences. Recently, the only fighters able to deploy to provide cover for some international summit were A-4ARs.

Mirage F1 can carry 1000 & 2000 litre drop tanks, & has an in-flight refuelling probe. Also, that combat radius does not specify the flight profile or payload, so means very little. Other sources quote 600 km for lo-lo. It has 40% more internal fuel than a Mirage III at least as much greater range, & the latter managed to reach the Falklands in 1982.

 

[Warwiz]

Royal Navy submarine sent to patrol Falklands
Move comes as British firm said to have struck oil
By Rita Brown

Published: 17/03/2010


SECURITY: The Royal Navy’s HMS Sceptre.
More Pictures

A NUCLEAR-POWERED Royal Navy attack submarine has been sent to patrol waters around the Falkland Islands, it was reported today.

The move came after it was believed British firm Desire Petroleum struck oil at the site.

According to experts, the waters around Falklands could contain more than 60 billion barrels of crude oil.

But they also warned the discovery could heighten tension in what already is a political hotspot.

Argentina’s president Cristina Kirchner has argued the islands were illegally occupied by the British, spurring protests in the country.

It was understood the Royal Navy submarine, HMS Sceptre, was ordered to the Falkland Islands from its post on the coast of southern Africa in a bid to step up security in the area.

The 5,000 tonne Swiftsure-class vessel is thought to be equipped with Spearfish anti-ship torpedoes.

Desire Petroleum, whose share prices have recently sky-rocketed, was expected to announce whether it has found oil.

The company is the first in a string of British-backed firms expected to drill off the islands in the coming months.

Naval expert Steve Bush said the submarine will remain an invisible threat while it’s there.

He said: “It will remain underwater, totally stealthy. They will remain invisible.”

The Ministry of Defence refused to comment.



Read more: Royal Navy submarine sent to patrol Falklands - Evening Express

 

[StingrayOZ]

Heating up.

I expect much posturing over this one. Sounds like serious quantities of oil.

 

[Thiel]

Heating up.

I expect much posturing over this one. Sounds like serious quantities of oil.

No doubt about it. Depending on who you ask, the Falklands are said to sit on top of approx the same amount of oil as the north sea.

 

[StevoJH]

No doubt about it. Depending on who you ask, the Falklands are said to sit on top of approx the same amount of oil as the north sea.

Nothing the Argentinians can do about it though, unless they can convince Venezuala or Brazil to back them, and even then their window only extends up until 2018 or so when the F-35B becomes available to the RN in large numbers. Assuming their preparations arent detected and MPA isnt reinforced with more Typhoons and Tornado GR.4's that is.

 

[Warwiz]

I think the biggest thread to the English finding oil will be Green Peace and all the other environmentalist out there………..Their battle cry will be “Won’t something please think of the Penguins?”:drunk1

 

[Grim901]

I think the biggest thread to the English finding oil will be Green Peace and all the other environmentalist out there………..Their battle cry will be “Won’t something please think of the Penguins?”:drunk1

Maybe we could ask the French secret service for a few pointers on that front then, with our own improvements of course (don't want MI6 to be caught sinking Hippie idiots now do we).

 

[vbombv]

Nothing the Argentinians can do about it though, unless they can convince Venezuala or Brazil to back them, and even then their window only extends up until 2018 or so when the F-35B becomes available to the RN in large numbers. Assuming their preparations arent detected and MPA isnt reinforced with more Typhoons and Tornado GR.4's that is.

Don't think the UK will be able to afford many F-35s, even in small numbers with the MOD looking at funding deficit of 35billion there is likely to be many more big cuts to come. Still, JSFs are not needed to defend the Falklands as the Eurofighter is more than capable in this role (some even say better)
Unfortunately for the Argentineans, their allies will only support them with words and will not risk their hard earned Migs, Sukhois and soon to be Rafaels. Without a miracle they could not take the islands and obtain air superiority with what they have. Even if they did manage to take the islands the threat of a SSN would keep their Navy tied up and supplies would not be forthcoming causing an eventual repeat of history.

The best strategy for the Argies would be to bide their time as continual UK defence policy seem to be a bigger threat to UK defence forces than the Argentinians are...

 

[StevoJH]

Its a stupid situation when a government is harping on about $3.5 billion/year especially given the size of the UK budget as it is.

 

[StingrayOZ]

The best strategy for the Argies would be to bide their time as continual UK defence policy seem to be a bigger threat to UK defence forces than the Argentinians are...

If they didn't try it, by now the UK would have no carriers and most likely a tolken defence force. Because they did, Australia didn't buy a carrier, they released that pocket carriers aren't really enough, and have spent some serious coin on fixing things.

 

[vbombv]

If they didn't try it, by now the UK would have no carriers and most likely a tolken defence force. Because they did, Australia didn't buy a carrier, they released that pocket carriers aren't really enough, and have spent some serious coin on fixing things.

Well if the UK hadn't canceled CVA01 the "Pocket carriers" would have been operating as escort cruisers as they were intended to rather than as capital ships and as you say they would have probably been retired by now.
As its been over a 1/4 century since the Falklands Conflict it seems that the construction of the QE and PoW isn't due to the learning of lessons from that conflict but rather for anticipation of the next conflict with the need of supreme power projection for protecting ones assets (oil?). Seems that the RN are actually anticipating this time rather than reacting.

 

[citizen578]

HMS Portland will shortly deploy to the Faklands to relieve HMS York, and will almost certainly carry a Merlin helo. This means a massive increase in asw capability - totally appropriate given that subs are pretty much the only way Argentina can reach out and touch the islands.

 

[John Sansom]

HMS Portland will shortly deploy to the Faklands to relieve HMS York, and will almost certainly carry a Merlin helo. This means a massive increase in asw capability - totally appropriate given that subs are pretty much the only way Argentina can reach out and touch the islands.

I think you're right, but the world is full of definite maybe's. Perhaps some thought should be given as to how the Argentinians might envision such a blockade.

The UK's ASW capabilities are more than likely to outclass even the most modern subaqueous measures the Argentinians might employ (other than mines, perhaps).

And just how would an Argentinian sub carry out its blockade duties? Well, it would probably have to fire into the allegedly offending vessel....and then the gates of Hell would be decidedly opened. The other option would be to stop, seize, and redirect the blockade runner. Uh huh.

Perhaps the Argentine government should seek the counsel of Somali skiff operators before they go that route.

Sure would like somebody to tell me I'm missing something.

 

[citizen578]

John, I think the mistake would be to consider this in terms of a litteral, classic blockade. Nobody can realistically consider this an option for Argentina. They are politically and militarily incapable of creating one, let alone sustaining it in the face of a British response (as it would be a blatant act of war).

What I meant in referrence to Argentine submarine activity is this:
Argentina has been waging a low-level covert operation against the islands for years. This is well known among the small number of people with an ongoing interest in the SW Atlantic, and not a passing one based on hysterical headlines. Over recent years, we've had an Argentine submarine caught red-handed in South Georgia's terittorial waters (by a T23, no less), have had numerous incidents involving Argentine aircraft 'probing' the fringes of Falklands airspace, have had Argentine warships harrassing merchant and fishing fleets within te Falklands EEZ under the guise of innocent-passage. Most concerningly, in 2006 (iirc) a local spotted suspicious men in Fox Bay, called MPA who deployed the QRF, and an Argentine inflatable of the type used by the Buzo Tactico was discovered having apparently been abandoned in rather a hurry.

The only way Argentina can actually get boots on the ground in the Falklands is by using submarines. I believe they only have two sea-worthy subs at the moment, but it's more than enough to repeat such a 'raid', or something more developed. Of course, the big question is how many of these incursions have gone unnoticed.
This has recently been acknoledged, or rather let-slip, by Roulement Infantry Company soldiers being iterviewed by the BBC
BBC News - Yorkshire soldiers train in Falklands for Afghanistan

"I lead a platoon of soldiers on daily patrols around the islands. It's not that we think there's a real risk of an Argentine invasion, but we do know they have special forces trying to access the islands.
"It's my job to make sure they don't make it ashore so that they can't stash kit or get information about our defences.

....hence my comment that sending an increased ASW capability to the area is highly appropriate. One wonders, had the MR2s not been in their twilight weeks, whether the MoD might have sent one or two down to bolster asw surveillance, and maritime surveillance in general. The T42s are no longer as crucial as they once were, with the Typhoons (which arrived at roughly the same time as HMS York) easily outclassing anything in the entire southern hemisphere, let alone a few airframes which should by rights be sat in a museum by now. Short of a major escalation in the volume of units deployed, the Type 23 really completes the picture in terms of a rounded defence of the islands.