NZDF General discussion thread

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I have to disagree with this comment. Assuming the threat is short notice, which denotes a small raiding force (probably as a distraction to other regional events) New Zealand lacks an effective anti shipping capability in terms of Anti Ship missiles, including a survival launch capability (Mmm let me think P-3 vs SM-3 type missile who wins) along with the aircraft and ship numbers to launch launch them and a sub standard ASW capability.
That, coupled with what appear to be numerous gaps in the sensor coverage around NZ, means that a small raiding party (or parties) could potentially land to conduct disruptive activities in NZ. As Lucasnz mentioned, this would likely be a sideshow to some other regional event with the objective of the raid/actions simply to keep NZ and/or Oz busy or otherwise arrange for their non-involvement.

-Cheers
 

t68

Well-Known Member
I have to disagree with this comment. Assuming the threat is short notice, which denotes a small raiding force (probably as a distraction to other regional events) New Zealand lacks an effective anti shipping capability in terms of Anti Ship missiles, including a survival launch capability (Mmm let me think P-3 vs SM-3 type missile who wins) along with the aircraft and ship numbers to launch launch them and a sub standard ASW capability.

Sorry i should have made it clearer than what i have stated,
I was referring to a statement that Kiwi-Kid made for Waylander in regards to equipment level’s held by the NZDF and how the Army could hold on in a short notice engagement on home soil.
 

Sea Toby

New Member
What bothers me the most about New Zealand's defensive posture is how very close their Beehive parliament building is to the coast. Not a mile or two away, but a couple of blocks away. A surprise commando raid could possibly take your Parliament hostage.
 

StevoJH

The Bunker Group
What bothers me the most about New Zealand's defensive posture is how very close their Beehive parliament building is to the coast. Not a mile or two away, but a couple of blocks away. A surprise commando raid could possibly take your Parliament hostage.
Whereas Canberra was purposely built inland. Fairly sure from memory that the NSW Parliment building is only a couple of blocks from the Ferry Terminal at Circular Quay in Sydney, though a couple of km from the open ocean.
 

Lucasnz

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
What bothers me the most about New Zealand's defensive posture is how very close their Beehive parliament building is to the coast. Not a mile or two away, but a couple of blocks away. A surprise commando raid could possibly take your Parliament hostage.
It would be, to put it mildly, no great loss :D and future parliaments would be must more supportive of defence expenditure.


Sorry i should have made it clearer than what i have stated,
I was referring to a statement that Kiwi-Kid made for Waylander in regards to equipment level’s held by the NZDF and how the Army could hold on in a short notice engagement on home soil.
True the army is better equipped to hunt raiding groups, but NZ would be mad to even let them land.
 

Kiwi_Kid

New Member
One also has to look at the situation in context,

1 strategic environment
2 population /economic
NZ is in a stagnate strategic environment in that there is no direct threat to NZ now and the short term, longer term who knows what could pop up in the future

NZ shares no borders with any one and exits in a fairly isolated pert of the world with a small population base to fund any grand platform in great numbers without withdrawing funding from other just as important areas.

The NZ defence force is capable of making a stand in the short term of days till help arrive via Australia and i don’t think the US would blindly stand by if there was a direct attack on NZ soverenty.
One could also say this about the ADF and it’s holding of defence equipment and ordnance holdings, if some one was to get a foot hold on Aussie territory i am led to believe that Australia only has enough war shots of various kind’s to last three day’s of high intensity conflict.

Like Australia, New Zealand would increase there holding‘s if an imminent situation were to arise
I still hold my ground on the fact that NZ needs to be able to defend itself better then they are at the moment as we can't just keep hoping that our allies will just come and save us!!
 

LancasterBomber

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
That, coupled with what appear to be numerous gaps in the sensor coverage around NZ, means that a small raiding party (or parties) could potentially land to conduct disruptive activities in NZ. As Lucasnz mentioned, this would likely be a sideshow to some other regional event with the objective of the raid/actions simply to keep NZ and/or Oz busy or otherwise arrange for their non-involvement.

-Cheers
Which is exactly how I would attack Australia. I would use the underbelly of NZ to draw out the RAN into the tasman as well as some of the focus of the RAAF. Then stretch ADF 'thin' by attempting a landing on the west coast. I would also sign a behind closed doors agreement (12 months prior) with Indonesia to use their islands as forward staging points in return for future economic security. Allowing me to press a third front from the north.

Probably wouldn't work. Probably will never happen. Our loyalty to NZ is fierce and I would most definitely play on that emotive link to my strategic advantage to exploit the lack of military scale (and therefor reach) of both ADF and NZDF.

To be honest I know nothing about aircraft carriers but if ever we do get into that game again I personally would love to see it as a JV between ADF and NZDF specifically tasked to strategic control of the tasman and a role to play in the broader pacific.

Alternatively from within the RAN I am going to push hard for us to give the Collins subs to NZ for free (assuming we look after them properly). It might not be something the kiwis want to get into though I dont know?

Edit: Thinking about it we might claim 'Flight of the Conchords' as our own in return for the subs because those guys are piss funny. :D
 

EnigmaNZ

New Member
Funnily enough, when the Lange Labour government was deciding what to replace the navies Leander frigates with, they actually did consider the Collins. However the Anzacs won out as they could be used for gunboat diplomacy etc. Pity they didn't order 2 of each lol, as the original 4 Anzacs were cut back to 2 anyway.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
Subs for NZ?

I agree with Enigma that it's a pity NZ didn't sign up to the 2 Collins/2 ANZAC concept back in the 80's - if we had then today we would have a small but usuful Naval combat/patrol force (but I realise that with the RNZN wanting a 3-4 Frigate force, and it was actually the incoming 84 NZ Labour Govt which scuttled the Collins, then it was a no go-er. Or was it? Because I read an article a few years ago written by a chap (who does defence analysis), the name eludes me, but he lives in Christchurch and I know LucasNZ has mentioned him once a year or two ago, anyway he matter of factly stated the RNZN's intention at the time was a Submarine force backed by Corvettes or possibly ex-RN Amazons ... can't remember which of the latter two - maybe Lucas knows etc. First time I heard about that concept as otherwise like everyone else I accepted the politcial line at the time which was subs may have their place, but a surface ship eg Frigate gives the Navy and Govt additional options esp for civil emergencies/evacuations in the Pacific etc. Perhaps in hindsight if the NZ Govt had signed up to Collins, then maybe rather than some extra Corvettes or T21's, ANZAC's may have been bought anyway, once the ANZC concept was finalised? Who knows, with the 80's economy flat-lining and Govt infighting, I doubt we could have really afforded the Collins anyway seeing they cost more than was originally proposed - more then the cost of a Frigate v half the cost of a Frigate as originally proposed).

But to the present day & Mr C's interesting comments on the RNZN thread about undersea oil and minerals. Plus the fact NZ, under UN agreement, has recently extended its reach to include parts of the continental shelf (in discussion with Australia ... maybe Argentina needs to take a leaf out of the NZ/OZ book and actually negotiate some compromise sharing arrangement with the UK in terms of Falklands undersea oil and the continental shelf rather than sabre rattling etc)?

New Zealand Continental Shelf Project
UN confirms NZ’s extended seabed claim - New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Treaties and International Law - New Zealand’s Continental Shelf and Maritime Boundaries - NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade

NZ has now got extra areas, with undersea riches, to watch (and defend). What better way with a couple of subs? Great for deterrent value, as no-one really knows where they are lurking?

In terms of Lancaster Bombers idea for Australia to pass the Collins onto NZ when the new subs come on stream, perhaps it would be worth him asking the likes of GF and AD whether that is realistic. For example what about the sophisticated combat systems on board - would the US wish for NZ to have such sensitive equipment? Could NZ really afford to maintain the sophisticated combat equipment and weaponry? (NZ finds it hard enough to upgrade the two current ANZAC's etc). What state would they be in by that time?

I do like the idea but am unsure if it is feasible. And perhaps it could be said, why wait till post 2020 - if subs are really the answer then why not investigate other options for the 2015-2020 time period? Or why not join in with the Collins II project?

Personally if the NZ Govt ever were to seriously consider subs (future wise I hope they do, seeing that NZ could potentially become a lot richer), then why not in the interim:

1. To reinforce this proposed joint ANZAC force concept, send perhaps 6-12 (or whatever number is realistic) RNZN personnel per annum to be seconded into the RAN Collins fleet ("now"), to learn about how to actually operate a sub? Build up that institutional knowledge for the day that the NZ Govt does committ to subs (Collins II perhaps)? Win-win - the RAN gets additional personnel to mann their subs. For some in the RNZN there would be a bit of interest to go onto a high achieving/high pressure area (kiwis like to prove their worth after all), and frankly the prospect of kiwis moving to (the big smoke of) Perth would not be a problem (unlike for those eastern seaboard dwelling ozzies)!

2. Would it be better for NZ in the interim to downgrade on the exceptional strategic capabilities of the Collins (after all it's not like NZ would be wanting to stealthly recce North Korea, we're simply not at the top of the US Navy's allied Orbat, unlike the RAN, let alone NZ political jitters at the thought) and instead opt for a couple of cheaper German or Euro type designs? Uselful for regional patrolling in the SW Pacific EEZ's, which realistically is a better sell to the public etc. THEN if NZ striked the oil/mineral jackpot perhaps we could look towards Collins II in the future? At least that way with the RNZN getting to grips with operating smaller subs (and those secondments into the RAN), perhaps something stealthy in the league of Collins II could be viable in another 20 years time etc.

I'm not really expecting much from the Govt in this area (subs) in terms of the impending Defence Whitepaper, except to say, if the Whitepapers' strategic outlook is some 20-30 years into the future then these issues ought to be flagged NOW for ongoing investigations (and provide the funding to setup a small RNZN unit to liaise further with the RAN etc).

In the meantime we saw the issues of getting access to the sunken Tongan ferry last year, perhaps the first interim step would be to get a small fleet of manned/unmanned undersea vehicles (or mini-subs) capable of operating to even greater depths (than the current RNZN abilities) for MCM, recovery of undersea objects and possibly sabotage missions...
 

Sea Toby

New Member
Discussions of New Zealand acquiring and operating submarines is difficult to comprehend when New Zealand has problems buying three frigates. Buying and operating submarines is more expensive than buying and operating frigates. Nothing about a submarine is cheaper.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
The question of submarines came up during the 1983 Defence White Paper which eventually settled on the baseline need for keeping a 4 Frigate fleet. The reasons against submarines were the cost and that the learning curve was going to be too big. Nothing has changed in that regard and Toby is right on that one.

I think when the 87 DWP came around it was discussed and came to the same conclusion. I am pretty sure that even if Lange liked the idea I have doubts that the leftwing of his party would have been too happy.

Recce - Was the guy from Christchurch you were thinking of Stuart McMillan at Canterbury University?
 

LancasterBomber

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I agree (snip)...
Great post. You raise some really valid ideas.

I think you are spot on regarding NZDF personnel coming over to train with us to build up your knowledge base ahead of time. Prior to RAN agreeing to that I think we would need to see some committed policy from your Govt re subs in future (i.e I am not sure we will want to waste valuable training time and resources if there is little likelihood of a future standalone NZ sub platform.)

In terms of hardware the three options you raised are all valid and worth looking into. Personally I would still lean very heavily on taking the Collins platform ahead of either Collins Mark II or cheaper off the shelf German or Spanish kits. Here is my reasoning:

1. Assuming the Collins are in good condition and well maintained (and we nail this persistent issue we have with batteries) then they are a compelling option financially because we will likely gift them to you (a stronger NZ is a stronger Aus etc etc). Off the shelf brand new from Spain or Germany would be next cheapest while Collins Mark II will likely be a hefty price tag.

2. We are likely to be almost continuously improving on the Collins (I would have to confirm this with GF though!) as we move towards Collins Mark II (i.e we might use Collins to install and test variants of our future systems). So you may get some of the Collins Mark II tech embedded into Collins anyway (probably not the bleeding edge tech but possibly a lot of stuff you wouldnt get from off the shelf foreign purchase).

3. You have to crawl a bit before you walk when it comes to subs (I dont mean that in a insulting way) but it does take time to build up the knowledge, support systems, logistics and personnel. Training your sqaud up in the Collins and then purchasing a different platform (i.e collins Mark II or say U-212) would mean you need to do a degree of re-training and wouldnt be a cohesive pathway. Our boys will be going through training for Collins Mark II at the same time though so might not be a huge hurdle (training on collins and then purchasing foreign would be a duplication of training though).

4. Getting Collins Mark II for NZ would be a difficult sell to the US. I think RAN would be OK with it but I think the US would probably baulk. They would be of the view that NZ doesnt need billion $ tech in subs when the US has their back anyway. It wouldnt be an issue of trust it would more be a simple risk analysis. Every time you expand the number of eyes on classified military tech you increase the probability of it being compromised.

5. Interoperability. I want to push for NZ subs because I want to work in with your boys in 10-15 years time. It is in my and RANs best interest to have a small but kick arse bunch of kiwis in subs. If you have Collins (or Collins Mark II) then we have a high degree of interoperability both operationally and also from ongoing training, maintenance and other logistical support perspectives. We can play war games, exchange notes and generally get the best out of each other when we have platform synergies.

I dont think any of my arguments here are particularly strong but if I was to suggest an acquistion strategy for NZ coming online regarding subs then I would say:

  1. 1. Make a commitment at Govt level that it is an area of interest.
  2. 2. Send over your boys from 2012 -2018 for serious training.
  3. 3. Negotiate for RAN to early retire 2 Collins in 2018 (conditional to RAN taking 2 Astutes in 2018 from GB which mind you GF thinks is pie in the sky stuff!).
  4. 4. Operate Collins from 2018-2030 (which is within the original retirement period for Collins anyway). Effectively a 12 year apprenticeship to build up your support platforms and personnel.
  5. 5. Make an evaluation 2028-2030 regarding your commitment to a sub branch and place an order for 2 Collins Mark II (at the end of RANs own production run)

Use the Collins as a stepping stone. We used the Oberons in a similar fashion I think.

Anyway from a personal perspective I would welcome you kiwis into the fold!
 

Lucasnz

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Discussions of New Zealand acquiring and operating submarines is difficult to comprehend when New Zealand has problems buying three frigates. Buying and operating submarines is more expensive than buying and operating frigates. Nothing about a submarine is cheaper.
I tend to agree with those that oppose subs for the RNZN. While they provide a great strategic deterrent, they lack the flexibility the RNZN needs given its diverse roles. It was for this reason that a number of senior RNZN officers in the 80's opposed a submarine based force.

NZ should not buy sub's until long after I've crossed the bar.

I do like the idea of sending RNZN personnel to work on the RAN subs to help out with manning etc. RADM Hunter the CN in 1991 was a trained submariner who gained his dolphins with the RN while on exchange.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
Seatoby, Mr C and Lucas - I whotheartedly agree with your sentiments expressed, especially in that NZ needs to get its House in order first, i.e. it needs to be able to fully fund the Frigates (and their associated operating and upgrade costs), as well as afford 3 or 4 of them, plus those others things like air combat aircraft and so on I.e. defence in general, not just the toys), let alonoe thinking of plunging into subs - of course NZ won't be plunging into subs anytime soon but perhaps my point wasn't expressed well, which was, as/if the economy expands because of future mineral wealth (and here we could be talking 10-30 years really) then these options ought to be on the table, soon if not now etc. No doubt they are when defence reviews occur periodically (but as we know within defence there are vested groups with vested interests hence some "good" ideas to some groups are not seen as such by others and are taken down etc).

I also don't have an issue with Lancaster Bomber suggesting that ex-Collins' be gifted (or on sold) to NZ except because we are talking about sub technology, I don't think the idea is feasible (whereas if it were a second hand Frigate then that's more likely to be acceptable to all parties concerned). One area we know about is the "Skyhawk" sale in that sensitive US made equipment in the A4's (and Collins) will need US clearance, and because Australia has a greater level of access to eg sub technologies, there could be obstacles in passing that tech to NZ which doesn't have those high level clearances, not unless there was a dramatic sea change in NZ politics and both major parties wholeheartedly welcome rejoining ANZUS etc, I doubt we will see major change on that issue. And as Seatoby says, the running costs of subs are much greater. With NZ Treasury controlling the purse strings, they won't welcome any additional (and uncertain) levels of expenditure if they think something else can do a reasonable job cheaper (and I believe their alarm about the running costs of the Leanders played a role in the Wellington being decomissioned early etc).

However in this new spirit of ANZAC cooperation, sending NZ naval personnel to assist with Collins (or AWD or LHD's on even anything else in the RAN surface fleet) has merits, I realise to a limited extent this actually already happens, but like I say there would be a few keen sailors there wanting to push their personal/career development hence if the NZ and OZ Govts could work on the cost arrangements, like having an Army ready reaction force for the regulars to aspire to, same with the Navy (and air force)!

Mr C - It was Robert Miles (of Timaru), I obtained via a second hand bookstore a 21 page "booklet" of his called "Surviving the Tide, the case for a Corevette Navy". There's no ISSBN number and it is hard to tell but it appears to have been printed in the mid-90's. He writes he is from a "brilliant academic and military family" stretching back 100's of years (in the UK) and has written for the NZBR and Institute of Internal Affairs etc. Interesting in his authors note that he states that he has his detractors (around the world) but seeing at $4 for the booklet I thought I would give it a read when I saw it.

Sometimes I find it hard to figure out where he is actually going with his arguements but the crux of the issue is he reckons Frigates have had their day and NZ should be looking at other options such as Corvettes, or armed P3's (instead of fighters), converted merchant ships large enought to operate helos and towed arrays etc. The reason for dissing Frigates according to him is that they are expensive white elephants that are sitting ducks in a real shooting war thus NZ should prepare by using anything cheap and plentiful, so that NZ has more hulls (or helos etc) so that any losses are mitigated etc.

I suppose in some respects there are is some truth in what he is saying. For example over at Wings of NZ in the past I've noticed some of the ex-RNZAF'ers there saying the (intial) ANZAC's were a sitting duck targets and thus a waste of money (and potentially lives). For a bit of fun that reminded me to dig out my copy of Ross Ewing's "Topped Gun" and on pp 104-105 it quotes Jason Easthop who went on to lead 2 Sqn RNZAF at Norwa:

A signal arrives from Marine Headquarters giving us the sailing time of the fleet out of Sydney Harbour. Our instructions ''Attack, SISAL approved.' It is an instruction we prayed for, it means attacking navy ships without gaining a clearance and therefore giving away our intentions or position. We could employ stealth tactics to the limit and show the Navy the difference betwen 'canned serials' and 'gloves off operations'. The first light of day is threatening as I lead our four-ship of A-4's to the end of the runway at Norwa. No radio calls are made between us or air traffic control, green light flashes from the tower signalling a clearance to take off. We get airborne for the coast in trail formation, remainin at low level. Not a word has been spoken, not a telltale transmission broadcasted. We adopt the pre-briefed attack formation of battle-spread (all four aircraft line abreast, approx 5km apart), push the speed up to 500 knots and fly low, real low. A speck on the horizon brings a smile to my face, the fleet are just entering the exercise area or 'bad lands', right on schedule. Throttles go wide open and the formation starts to break up as we target our planned ships. Three Frigates surrounding a supply ship steam onwards, oblivious of our presence. At 7 nautical miles range we simulate our missile launch (Mavericks) and carry on towards overhead the ships. Just as we can see the whites of their eyes the frigates turn hard into defensive positions and an excited voice comes up on the radio: 'Unidentified aircraft bearing (roooaarr!! ... the sound of an A-4 screeches through his microphone as the entire ship is engulfed in jet noise) ... Errrr .... State your intentions!' I just reply, 'Morning lads, nice day for it.' There's a pregnant pause, then the voice on the radio changes, to one of the senior staff: 'One nil to the Kiwis.'
(The rest of that item goes on to compare the limitaions of the Maverick v the ADF's Harpoon, eg the Maverick is inside the lethal range of the RAN's Standard SAM etc). Like I say, the above is just a bit of fun remembering the good ol' days, and of course the RAN ANZAC's have received upgraded sensors and weaponry in recent times etc)!

Like I say some of what Robert Miles has some truth (I can post what he actually says later, if interested, when I have some time), but he doesn't seem to take into account that Frigates are not soley for the defence of NZ (for if we were to really defend NZ as such we'd be buying land based SAM's and shore based anti-shipping missiles etc, not Frigates) but they are there to play our small part in collective defence in association with other countries and that the ANZAC's only form one part of the bigger/integrated/layered picture etc. He's also looking at things in terms of all out war. That's fine but as we know, all out war has been overted (for the timebeing), and we now have asymetrical/ terrorism/ WMD threats, plus regional instability and Frigates are still very useful for patrolling against these threats near unstable areas.
 

Lucasnz

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Like I say some of what Robert Miles has some truth (I can post what he actually says later, if interested, when I have some time), but he doesn't seem to take into account that Frigates are not soley for the defence of NZ (for if we were to really defend NZ as such we'd be buying land based SAM's and shore based anti-shipping missiles etc, not Frigates) but they are there to play our small part in collective defence in association with other countries and that the ANZAC's only form one part of the bigger/integrated/layered picture etc. He's also looking at things in terms of all out war. That's fine but as we know, all out war has been overted (for the timebeing), and we now have asymetrical/ terrorism/ WMD threats, plus regional instability and Frigates are still very useful for patrolling against these threats near unstable areas.
Robert Miles has put out a couple of books about the shape of the navy. You can generally find them at most of the big public libraries. People like Mr Miles tend to forget that in today's war, its not just frigates that are targets, tankers, container ships are just as important in denying an enemy logistic support or attacking the enemies economy. The only difference is that unlike merchant ships frigates can survive a missile strike (just look at USS Stark as compared to the Alantic Conveyor in the Falklands). Mr Miles advocates in my view a build it to sink apporach that ignores the cost of fitting even modular systems and the waste of resources that generates not to mention the lives lost. Having said that more modern versions of the designs (like the Thetis class) that Mr Miles advocates do have have a place in the "rear areas" away from the primary threat zone.
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
What bothers me the most about New Zealand's defensive posture is how very close their Beehive parliament building is to the coast. Not a mile or two away, but a couple of blocks away. A surprise commando raid could possibly take your Parliament hostage.
Unless you moved Parliament buildings to National Park there aren't many places in NZ that aren't close to the coast. Where would you suggest.
 

Twickiwi

New Member
Unless you moved Parliament buildings to National Park there aren't many places in NZ that aren't close to the coast. Where would you suggest.
Murchison would be the truly strategic choice for political capital, but I would be willing to settle for Taumaranui.:D
 

Sea Toby

New Member
Unless you moved Parliament buildings to National Park there aren't many places in NZ that aren't close to the coast. Where would you suggest.
I am sure a location could be found that is more than a block or two from the coast, i.e., a port. A few miles or kilometers would be very nice. Its so much I am against Wellington... At the moment a crack commando after landing could walk to the Beehive.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Whereas Canberra was purposely built inland. Fairly sure from memory that the NSW Parliment building is only a couple of blocks from the Ferry Terminal at Circular Quay in Sydney, though a couple of km from the open ocean.
From memory Canberra was only chosen because of the fighting between Sydney and Melbourne on who was the capital city, Sydney’s claimed it because it was the first city settled and Melbourne claim it as it was the financial powerhouse at the time, so it was decided to place it halfway between capitals which it really is not, it had to be close to a major water source and of course Lake Burley Griffin was built after Molonglo River was dammed and is named after the American who won the design competition for the design of Canberra, Walter Burley Griffin
The NSW parliament house is a 700 metre walk from Circular Quay and a ten minute walk or five minute run.

The question on submarine’s for the RNZN is an interesting one.
I believe it makes it make for a good strategic mix in the greater pacific area but for NZ needs its makes sense to increase the frigate force or the future force mixed with 2 ANZAC II and 2/3 corvette plus there OPV.


But an overall combat force structure of 3x ANZAC II 3x corvettes and 3xCollins or MKII would be good overall force structure fore RNZN
 
Last edited:
Top