The US / Israeli response to the S-300

[plasmahawk]

I have been researching a little further into the Russian S-300 and its variants. It was interesting to read the particulates of the S-300PS/S-300PM. Thought to have been the only model fitted with nuclear warheads.

Hello Comrade Welcome to Defence Talk!

In regards to nuclear war heads, I would not be at all surprised if S400 is nuclear warhead capable as there have been live and currently are live deployed nuclear tipped 51T3 and 53T6 missiles around Moscow, as part of the Moscow Anti Ballistic Missle System (A135) are armed with 1Mt and 10Kt nuclear warheads respectively.

As the S400 is labelled as an ABM capable system it would make sense to make it Nuclear capable, keep in mind though, that "nuclear" capable is usually designed for an EMP damage as well as the standard shockwave/thermal damage.

Would nuclear capable SA systems be sold to Iran, absolutely not, furthermore due to the Nuclear Non Proliferation treaties a system capable of delivering nuclear warheads is just as frowned upon as selling the nuclear weapon technology itself.

Cheers,
Plas

 

[Feanor]

There have been a number of unconfirmed claims that S-300s and/or their components have been sold to Iran as early as 1993 from Belarus, and then later on from countries such as Croatia and Libya.

Although these are merely claims, it does entertain the possibility that Iran has been in possession of this technology for a significant period of time, probably a lot longer than we think.

The very fact that Iran continues to pursue particular interest in the Russian S-300, could suggests some extremely positive results and satisfactions conveyed from previous purchases.

That's highly unlikely. Libya does not even posses the system. Neither did Belarus, until Russia donated two units to them in iirc 2003. And those units are still operating as part of the joint CIS network. Not to mention that if Iran did have it, they would parade it around (the same way they parade their few remaining Tomcats) to impress foreign observers and milk the political capital.

I have chosen not to speculate on the time line required to reverse engineer the S-300, because no one really knows for sure, when Iran first came into contact with this technology.

It makes little sense to me that Iran is being so persistent in regard to an 800 million deal for a system that they cannot operate and would require years of reverse engineering to acquire any technological benefit, by which time would be fairly outdated.

Why wouldn't they be able to operate it? If they end up getting the deliveries, I'm sure the deal includes training for Iranian operators, and possibly even integration with their previous Tor-M1 purchase.

My opinion follows, for what it's worth

Iran acquired an unknown number of S-300PMU-1 munitions in the early 90s, which later resulted in follow-up purchases of the system itself (probably at a time when Iran's nuclear enrichment program began to fall under the tighter scrutiny of the US, Israel and the IAEA)
During this period up until 2007, Iran successfully applied its own brand of vast modifications to an older soviet S-300 model but still strongly based on original Russian component architecture.

Iran continues to remind the international community its plans to unveil its own sovereign missile defense systems, that I believe will be an S-300 Hybrid design.

Iran hardly has the technological level required to "improve" an S-300. I'm fairly certain that even a copy and paste reverse engineering would be difficult. Additionally if they already have an operational domestic variant they would have absolutely no need what-so-ever for this system. It would also demonstrate a level of technological proficiency in SAM systems that would be competitive with China, Russia, and the US. Again all very unlikely.

Iran plans to produce more of these in the near future but requires more of the raw components which can be served upon the completion of the deal with Russia, despite the fact that this particular S-300 that the Russians are selling to Iran is probably a stripped-down variant designed to soften the financial blow as the Russians upgrade to the new S-400s.

Why do they need the raw components if they already reverse engineered it? If they have done that they can produce the components themselves.

This explains why Russia will go through with the deal. They know Iran already has the S-300 and that they have already reverse engineered the technology enough to produce a hybrid design.

This also explains why Iran doesn't mind spending 800 million on a missile defense system that only a specialized Russian engineer can operate and maintain. I believe Iran has no intention of using the S-300, as it is served by the Russians. It will most likely be a production line contribution to a hybrid S-300 for Iran to pass off as its own sovereign defense.

This is of course, just an opinion

Science fiction. I'm not sure why you think Iranian engineers can't be trained to operate the system. And btw it's not engineers operating it. It's trained operators. It really doesn't require an engineering degree. In the USSR conscripts were able to operate the systems proficiently. Additionally if Iran has reverse engineered it they don't need the deal. Finally there is no real evidence that Iran ever acquired the system. And it's highly unlikely that the current deal would be facing such political pressure from the US, if Iran had already acquired and operationalized AND reverse engineered the system at an earlier date.

The situation appears to be the opposite. Iran does not have the system, and is currently desperate to get their hands on it. The design of their own system is likely to be political posturing. and while it's not unlikely that they really have started a new project to design a SAM with capabilities comparable to early S-300 variants, this will take many many years to complete. They may have access to some of the specs and technological documentation for the system, as that could have been acquired through third parties.

 

[spinnage]

That's highly unlikely. Libya does not even posses the system. Neither did Belarus, until Russia donated two units to them in iirc 2003. And those units are still operating as part of the joint CIS network. Not to mention that if Iran did have it, they would parade it around (the same way they parade their few remaining Tomcats) to impress foreign observers and milk the political capital.

F-14 Tomcats were exported to Iran when its diplomatic relations with the US were still good back in the 70s and serves various uses.

The S-300 is strictly a defense initiative that the Iranians are trying to implement with the exclusive intention of protecting what was suppose to be a clandestine uranium enrichment program. Perhaps parading a new advanced air defense system would have alerted suspicions among the US and Israel.

Why wouldn't they be able to operate it? If they end up getting the deliveries, I'm sure the deal includes training for Iranian operators, and possibly even integration with their previous Tor-M1 purchase.

You're right. Every systems has its driver, but what happens when things go wrong or it breaks down? Would a specialist engineer not be required?

I find it so ironic that the Tor-M1s were delivered to Iran. They were built for Greece but Russia changed the deal amid US protest. Now the US is protesting a Russian deal to Iran.

Maybe the S-300 will be delivered to Greece haha

Iran hardly has the technological level required to "improve" an S-300. I'm fairly certain that even a copy and paste reverse engineering would be difficult. Additionally if they already have an operational domestic variant they would have absolutely no need what-so-ever for this system. It would also demonstrate a level of technological proficiency in SAM systems that would be competitive with China, Russia, and the US. Again all very unlikely.

I don't think it was so long ago when the international community thought it unlikely that Iran would ever become a nuclear state. Yet now we see the new head of the IAEA beginning to express serious concern.

Why do they need the raw components if they already reverse engineered it? If they have done that they can produce the components themselves.

I never implied that the Iranians fully reverse engineered the S-300. Merely enough to apply their own brand of vast modifications, which still requires key Russian components.

I think reverse engineering refers more precisely to finding out how a system works as opposed to what it is made of.

Consider it a process of re-branding. Perhaps the Iranians have discovered a good bare bone template of the S-300 that they have managed to customize and/or enhance with the help of the North Koreans that continue to assist Iran with its nuclear program.

Science fiction. I'm not sure why you think Iranian engineers can't be trained to operate the system. And btw it's not engineers operating it. It's trained operators. It really doesn't require an engineering degree. In the USSR conscripts were able to operate the systems proficiently. Additionally if Iran has reverse engineered it they don't need the deal. Finally there is no real evidence that Iran ever acquired the system. And it's highly unlikely that the current deal would be facing such political pressure from the US, if Iran had already acquired and operationalized AND reverse engineered the system at an earlier date.

Again, if the system breaks down or something goes wrong? A degree might come in handy.

The situation appears to be the opposite. Iran does not have the system, and is currently desperate to get their hands on it. The design of their own system is likely to be political posturing. and while it's not unlikely that they really have started a new project to design a SAM with capabilities comparable to early S-300 variants, this will take many many years to complete. They may have access to some of the specs and technological documentation for the system, as that could have been acquired through third parties.

The fact that Iran is desperate to get their hands on the S-300, doesn't necessarily mean that they don't already have them, rather they desperately need more especially in light of the current political tensions with the US and Israel.

I guess I am just confused about the timing. Iran's flirting of a new sovereign missile defense, claiming to share or out perform the technological abilities of the S-300? In the midst of a deal with Russia. It would have been a typical response if Russia decided to withdraw the deal but the deal might be far from over.

I was not aware that the Iranians were prepared to appear so naive, unless it's not a bluff.

Regards

 

[Feanor]

F-14 Tomcats were exported to Iran when its diplomatic relations with the US were still good back in the 70s and serves various uses.

The S-300 is strictly a defense initiative that the Iranians are trying to implement with the exclusive intention of protecting what was suppose to be a clandestine uranium enrichment program. Perhaps parading a new advanced air defense system would have alerted suspicions among the US and Israel.

S-300 systems require infrastructure to operate, and their presence in strategically relevant quantities (i.e. more then 1) is practically impossible to conceal. Again there is no proof, and the countries in question did not posses the system. Finally it's not like 2-3 S-300 systems are enough to stop an Israeli air strike. What it can do is change the mindset of the politicians making the decision of whether to deal with Iran militarily or diplomatically.

You're right. Every systems has its driver, but what happens when things go wrong or it breaks down? Would a specialist engineer not be required?

Either local maintenance facilities will be set up as offsets, or Russian engineers will work on contract in Iran fixing the systems, or Iranian engineers will be taught maintenance and repair of the system. Remember most repairs don't require the system to get shipped back to the factory, and were carried out both in Soviet times and now by conscript mechanics in the field, and at the depot level.

I find it so ironic that the Tor-M1s were delivered to Iran. They were built for Greece but Russia changed the deal amid US protest. Now the US is protesting a Russian deal to Iran.

Maybe the S-300 will be delivered to Greece haha

Greece got the Tor-M1 (iirc 21 units), and is in possession of the two Cypriot S-300 systems. I recall reading that they even got Russian experts to help link the S-300 and Tor-M1 units into a single IADS.

I don't think it was so long ago when the international community thought it unlikely that Iran would ever become a nuclear state. Yet now we see the new head of the IAEA beginning to express serious concern.

Again a primitive, 1945-level nuclear device, and a sophisticated late 70s early 80s SAM system are two entirely different things. In regards to operationalizing a nuclear warhead on the S-300, this would require modifications to the system itself, as well as a relatively small warhead (in terms of size). Again a level of technological development that came decades (and this is from super powers) after their first nuclear device.

I never implied that the Iranians fully reverse engineered the S-300. Merely enough to apply their own brand of vast modifications, which still requires key Russian components.

I think reverse engineering refers more precisely to finding out how a system works as opposed to what it is made of.

Consider it a process of re-branding. Perhaps the Iranians have discovered a good bare bone template of the S-300 that they have managed to customize and/or enhance with the help of the North Koreans that continue to assist Iran with its nuclear program.

They may have figured out what some of the components are and how they work (this would be quite possible) but improving on it is a whole new level. Far beyond Iran or North Korea in terms of the technology involved.

Again, if the system breaks down or something goes wrong? A degree might come in handy.

Again contracts of this size involve either limited ToT for maintenance and repair purposes, or local maintenance set up by the seller. How do you think China, Vietnam, and now Algeria, perform maintenance on their S-300 units?

The fact that Iran is desperate to get their hands on the S-300, doesn't necessarily mean that they don't already have them, rather they desperately need more especially in light of the current political tensions with the US and Israel.

I guess I am just confused about the timing. Iran's flirting of a new sovereign missile defense, claiming to share or out perform the technological abilities of the S-300? In the midst of a deal with Russia. It would have been a typical response if Russia decided to withdraw the deal but the deal might be far from over.

I was not aware that the Iranians were prepared to appear so naive, unless it's not a bluff.

Regards

I actually think that this may be an extended offer to Russia, in the sense that if Russia does not wish to supply the system openly, it could be supplied covertly, and Iran could then pretend that the system was a domestic development. I suspect if Iran was making an offer of this sort, ToT might be one of the conditions, so that after the initial 5 btlns are delivered, Iran can continue production on it's own. But this is pure speculation.

 

[spinnage]

I felt compelled to share this article with the defense talk community.

Iran Capable of Manufacturing S-300 Defense Missiles: MP

I guess it is just another bluff from Iran?

Regards

Spinnage

 

[Grand Danois]

I felt compelled to share this article with the defense talk community.

Iran Capable of Manufacturing S-300 Defense Missiles: MP

I guess it is just another bluff from Iran?

Regards

Spinnage

Well, bluff yes. As you see they do not have the S-300 nor do they have the MIC for the indigenous development and manufacture of such a system.

 

[dark knight]

Chinese Support for Iran

Add-on's to post on S-400 and Reverse Engineering thanx to the Sino-Iranrelationship
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iran used the HQ-2, copy of the Russian SA-2 'Guideline' SAM system with devastating effect in the Iran-Iraq war. HQ-19, a clone of the Russian S-400 'Triumf' will now be supplied by the Chinese.
Remember, the first hit this century on IDF INS Hanit off Beirut was a Chinese SSM, the YJ-82 (NATO C-202), fired from shore by the Hizb on 14 Jul 2006.

INS Hanit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

-----------------------------------------
Dark Knight
New Delhi, India

 

[Feanor]

Complete uncofirmed I might add. There is no proof that the Chinese have reverse engineered the S-400. Additionally they may have reverse engineered the S-300 (the HQ-9 was hardly an indgenous development imo). With a few upgrades, they can release an S-300PMU-X that externall would be indistinguishable from an S-400. However I seriously doubt they reverse engineered the actual S-400. Or the new missile for it, which has only completed testing in iirc 2009. I also seriously doubt that Iran will get the system before even Chinese troops have it in quantities. In other words by the time it's ready for export to Iran, it will be old news. Sources would be nice.

What this has to do with Hezbollah, Israel, and a relatively old ASM is beyond me.

 

[Toptob]

Nice going Feanor, FYI I think you're totally right.

Also I don't know exactly how SAM's are made, but I do know they are very very complicated. And something I do know is that knowledge doesn't stem from people looking at stuff and copying it, but from a culture of knowledge that is fostered by a system of universities, government research and private companies working together.

In the case of SAM's you need experts in aerodynamics, advanced composites, alloys, signal physics and experts in much more scientific fields aswel as computer scientists etc etc etc. And while I respect Iran's educational ethos and accoplishments, it's another thing to build a nuclear reactor than it is to build a space age guided weapon.

Also:

I think reverse engineering refers more precisely to finding out how a system works as opposed to what it is made of.

You're absolutly right. but an online dictionary said this: "to study or analyze (a device, as a microchip for computers) in order to learn details of design, construction, and operation, to produce a copy or an improved version."

So reverse egnineering is indeed about knowing what something does, but also to replicate or improve it. As Feanor said The Iranians probably know something about how a S300 works, but its highly unlikely they can replicate or improve on it.

 

[jtm]

I want to answer specifically to one of the questions in the first posts, about the ability of Russia to test its S300 systems in hot and dry conditions.

- Russia has some places on his very territory where it can be done
- S300 systems had been sold and delivered to (among others) Greece, US (evaluation), India, and China. All these countries have the ability to test any equipment they want in hot and dry conditions.

Best regards, very interesting thread btw.

 

[dark knight]

Complete uncofirmed I might add. There is no proof that the Chinese have reverse engineered the S-400. Additionally they may have reverse engineered the S-300 (the HQ-9 was hardly an indgenous development imo). With a few upgrades, they can release an S-300PMU-X that externall would be indistinguishable from an S-400. However I seriously doubt they reverse engineered the actual S-400. Or the new missile for it, which has only completed testing in iirc 2009. I also seriously doubt that Iran will get the system before even Chinese troops have it in quantities. In other words by the time it's ready for export to Iran, it will be old news. Sources would be nice.

What this has to do with Hezbollah, Israel, and a relatively old ASM is beyond me.

Hi Feanor,

It has to do with China's ability to 'reverse engineer'.......... Are'nt we all underrating the Chinese ? The precursor to the S-400 could be the Anti-Missile Test on 11 Jan 2010, exactly 2 yrs after the 11 Jan 2007 ASAT test.................

Anti-satellite test generates dangerous space debris - space - 20 January 2007 - New Scientist

Also, regarding Chinese expertise in Comp Sc, check out this book by J Scott Henderson on proof of their CS ability......

The Dark Visitor - Scott J Henderson

-------------------------------
Maybe I'm being overly cautious, but getting mauled by the Chinese once makes the difference......

Sino-Indian War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
-------------------------------
this was a crackling thread, thanx very much for the info...

Dark Knight

 

[Feanor]

The S-400 has no confirmed ASAT capabilities. In fact, by it's very nature, any claims of ASAT from an S-300 derivative should be taken with more then a grain of salt. The new radar, and long-range missile for the S-400 (which separates it from the S-300PMU2) have yet to even be produced in appreciable quantities. Unless you think 1) highest echelons of Russian government are in conspiracy or 2) highest echelons of Russian state, and/or Almaz-Antey have been infiltrated by the Chinese, there is no way that those designs have made it across the border.

It's even less likely that Iran will be getting a hold of any technology comparable to that. I can believe that a bunch of S-300PM, overhauled and modernized, get delivered to Iran by Russia as a response to uncooperativeness of the US on ABM issues. I can't believe that an S-400 variant, stolen and reverse engineered by China gets delivered to Iran, when the number of operational S-400 systems can be counter on the fingers of one hand.

 

[CyberCobra]

Yes, thats the one, this from Wiki, I know, I know, but other sources were highlighted in the article.

Operation Orchard - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"According to Aviation Week and Space Technology, U.S. industry and military sources speculated that the Israelis may have used technology similar to America's Suter airborne network attack system to allow their planes to pass undetected by radar into Syria. This would make it possible to feed enemy radar emitters with false targets, and even directly manipulate enemy sensors. Syria is reported to have the new state-of-the art Pantsyr-S1E Russian SAM systems. However, the system had not been functional at that time. The Syrian air defense that was operational at that time was suspected to be the Tor-M1 (SA-15) and outdated Pechora-2A (S-125/SA-3) surface-to-air missiles.


Aviation Week and Space Technology later reported that Israeli aircraft actually engaged a Syrian radar site in Tall al-Abuad, both with conventional precision bombs, electronic attack, and brute force jamming. They added that prior to the raid, the U.S. gave Israel information on Syrian air defenses."



I remember speculation that Hardwired landlines were tapped into by the Israeli`s to introduce the "BUG".

The article suggesting that Israel employs U.S.-developed Suter to blind Syrian radar is a complete hogwash. What really happened was good, old fashioned mission planning and intelligence. This was a defense contractor feeding a story out to generate business for themselves. The Israelis determined where the sites were, how and when they operated, and set up the strike accordingly. Much less high tech than BAE's "Suter".

As to high tech, I would remind everyone that the F-117 Stealth Fighter that got shot down over Yugoslavia happened because it flew the same route, at the same time, 3 days in a row.

 

[Feanor]

And it looks like Iran has obtained some... oil drums. That it would like to preted are S-300s.

Ares Homepage

This is good evidence that Iran does not posses the system. If they did, they wouldn't need crude fakes to mimick it. It's hardly surprising, given the earlier fiasco with photoshopped missile launches.

 

[GI-Gizmo]

Iranian indiginous SAM system possible?

I know this is sorta off subject, but what does anyone think what will materialize, if anything, of the recent announcment Iran made that they had designed and built an indiginous high performance surface to air missile system. They claim it is as effective as a Patriot or S-300.
I know Iran makes claims almost weekly about new and amazing weaponry they have produced, whether it is a new MBT that they claim out classes an Abrams or a new stealth multirole jet fighter that can supercruise and penetrate any air defense system in the world! It usually turns out to be a T-72 that has a new turret and a modified engine or an F-5 that has a delta wing design and a re-arranged cockpit. There is usually only a few prototypes built, if any, so that can they can be presented to the state controlled media and hopefully then make a few headlines across the globe. The air defense situation would seem to be a much more important issue to Iran and I would think they would atleast try to take it serious and develop some new generations of protection since the leadership is convinced they will come under air attack sometime in the near future. They have developed MANPADs, have cloned SPAAGs, radars and SAMs and have recently acquired expertise on building dependable rocket motors and missiles. If they could organize and develop a medium-long range surface to air missile system using indiginous radars, command and control, TELs and missiles I would think it would be more effective then whatever they have sitting around now that was imported decades ago.

 

[Feanor]

Actually Iran has begun serial production of several indigenous fighter jets. It's not just a few prototypes. Now they're 3rd gen designs typically descendent from the F-5. But the variance is notable in their newer models. I don't doubt their ability to produce a SAM. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the vertical launch TEL technology fom the S-300 integrated into it. After all it's not that sophisticated of a design. But in terms of range, pk, radar, networking, etc. they are nowhere near producing something competitive with either S-300 or the Patriot.

EDIT: They don't produce T-72 based indigenous tanks, from what I know they produce T-55 mods that they call T-72Z. They have a licensed production facility for the T-72 iirc M1 mod. They also have their own tank design which is a CnP of various foreign components and designs, as well as some domestic engineering.

 

[AMERICANMAN]

Actually Iran has begun serial production of several indigenous fighter jets. It's not just a few prototypes. Now they're 3rd gen designs typically descendent from the F-5. But the variance is notable in their newer models. I don't doubt their ability to produce a SAM. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the vertical launch TEL technology fom the S-300 integrated into it. After all it's not that sophisticated of a design. But in terms of range, pk, radar, networking, etc. they are nowhere near producing something competitive with either S-300 or the Patriot.

EDIT: They don't produce T-72 based indigenous tanks, from what I know they produce T-55 mods that they call T-72Z. They have a licensed production facility for the T-72 iirc M1 mod. They also have their own tank design which is a CnP of various foreign components and designs, as well as some domestic engineering.

I am really skeptical that any air defense system will actually work very well. In the arab Israel wars it did for a time till Israel developed tactics to over come it. Sadam had a tremendous antiaircraft system to protect Baghdad that did not work. Syria has spent tremendous amounts of money on air defense and Israel went thru it like it was swiss cheese recently.. There are stand off weapons such as JASSM cruise missisles that planes can launch from 220 miles out. Israels advanced technolgy is Superb even the USA buys some it advance technology from Israel. Even the US systems did not work all that well during the gulf war. I dont even think Israels Iron Dome system is going to work, its too expensive to use to overcome cheap missles. Can any one tell me of any anti aircraft system that was sucessful. Even those in world war II were not all that effective.

As far as Iran goes I think they are desperate to develope nuclear weapons because they really dont have an effective military and they know it.....thats another subject.

On top of this Russian Quality control has allways been poor.
"Russia Tells Local Firms: Buy German Vehicle Armor
By NABI ABDULLAEV
Published: 3 May 2010 Print | EmailMOSCOW - Russia's defense ministry is pushing domestic companies that build military vehicles to get the armor from Germany, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said April 21
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4607737
and the middle east has never been that good at maintaining the equipment either.

 

[IronsightSniper]

Hmm...although war is always bad, and people getting killed should always be avoided, etc etc, I would love to see modern Russian air-defenses, such as the latest variants of the S-300 face to face against the full stealth and ECM force of the Americans/Israelis.

However, the Suter sounds like a great device. I'm not sure if the Ruskies have developed a counter-countermeasure for it yet, but it's always nice to see two big superpowers fight

 

[EXSSBN2005]

Americans once upon a time deployed nuclear tipped SAMs in the form of the Nike missle it was designed to take out approaching soviet bomber formations and knock them out of the air with blast and emp, there are better write ups out there than this but its just about time for me to go to sleep so I'm trying to keep this short. (sorry I drifted off target but here was an example of why the s-300/400 would/could be configured for a nuclear warhead vice delievering a warhead to another country.) :daz

 

[STURM]

Syria has spent tremendous amounts of money on air defense and Israel went thru it like it was swiss cheese recently..

I really doubt if the Syrians have the kind of cash needed to create an integrated networked AD system as intensive as the Iraqi KARI. In Yom Kippur, apart from the Egyptian divisions moving beyong the coverage of their SA-6 coverage and Israeli tactics, another problem is that the Egyptians started running out of missiles. So I suppose one lesson learnt is that you need lots and lots of reloads. For maximum hit probability, Russian doctrine calls for at least 2-3 missiles to be fired at each target..... kind of an expensive way of doing things but then again if it works.

Off-topic but I'm really curious how effective the Russian GPS jammers are.