The US / Israeli response to the S-300

[spinnage]

Hello everyone. This is my first post here at defense talk, so be gentle.

I wanted to open my first thread with a topic that I sincerely feel is yet to be properly discussed; the US, Israeli economic and/or political response to the delivery of the Russian S-300 missile defense system on Iranian soil.

We have read in the news about the possible sanctions against Iran in light of their increased Uranium enrichment program, and the possibility of a preemptive strategic strike on their nuclear facilities.

It is to my understanding that the Russian S-300 could dramatically change the rules of the game, especially between Israel and Iran and compromise any plans for an effective preemptive strike, in regard to Israel's air force capabilities.

So, what can we expect in terms of a US and Israeli response?

Should we be surprised to see America selling a batch of it's F-22s to Israel, despite the federal governments current restrictions on its sale to foreign countries?

Other points of interest.

It was reported that the delay in negotiation between Russia and Iran was due to a technical issue. Although pressure on Russia from Washington and Tel avive was the most lightly culprit, perhaps someone from the defense talk community can provide more details in regard to this "technical issue"

It was also reported that Iran had installed it's own sovereign missile defense system that could match the capabilities of the Russian S-300. Is this feasible? What capabilities can we expect from an Iranian missile defense system?

 

[Feanor]

Hey. Welcome to defencetalk. I'm going to move this thread to the Air Forces forum because it's more appropriate there, given that the subject is air-space defense, and penetration strikes.

Additionally, you probably don't know this, but this subject has attracted a lot of trolling and just general idiocy in the past. I'll be keeping an eye on this thread to make sure it doesn't get out of hand.

EDIT: Now to comment on the subject. The contract is valued at 800 million and involves 5 btlns of S-300 systems. (i.e. 5 systems, because it does not operate below the btln level)

The systems will come from Russian Army or Air Force stocks (it's unclear which) because the production lines are backlogged with MoD orders for the S-400. (in fact so backlogged that a whole new production plant is likely to get built) It's also unclear whether it will be a baseline S-300P/PM (it's unlikely to be the S-300V) or some modernized variant.

Currently the contract is set to be fulfilled at an unspecified future date, and probably contingent on foreign policy relations with the US.

Officially there is some problem with the radio-wavelength on which the systems operate, which is currently being rectified. The official position of the Russian government currently is that the contract will be fulfilled once the technical difficulties are solved.

I don't know if the contract involves integration with the older SA-2/SA-3/SA-5 systems Iran has, or with the Tor-M1s they got earlier. However integration with all of those is possible. Granted the availability of stand-off munitions, and jamming, it wouldn't change the rules of the game, but it would add a a notable risk factor to an Israeli air strike against Iranian facilities, in my opinion.

 

[spinnage]

First of all, thanks for moving my thread to the appropriate location.

It would be interesting to know the difference in production costs between the S-300 and S-400. In my experience, when it comes to military hardware and in regard to tight military budgets, cutting production cost is often a priority.

It is clear that optimizations in production costs may only be intended for government savings and to increase the overall profit margin in regard to exports, but I can't help wonder if it would have been cheaper and more beneficial for Russia to sell the S-400s to Iran.

Could this Radio wave-length issue or any other technical issue be related to the extreme temperatures? Does Russia have access to the tropical heat scenarios required to make these types of tests?

Theoretically speaking, Russia's defense systems would be more effective in countries that have hotter climates (Such as Iran). It is a well known fact that the speed of sound travels faster in higher temperatures, i.e. Mach 3 in Iran would be considerably faster that Mach 3 in Russia. So if the missiles used by this particular air defense do reach a mach number which I believe they do, it would be an advantage against any non-supersonic targets - please correct me if I am wrong.

Though, any strike against Iran would most certainly involve the use of supersonic weapons :roll

Which brings me to my next point. Iran buying S-300s is a little like bringing a knife to a gun fight in regard to a possible strike from the US Air Force . Yes it leaves the US and Israel with less cards to play, but their most powerful cards would still be on the table. Is the S-300 really a valid defense against an F-22 stealth bomber?

It seems that Iran is far more concerned about Israel, than the US. Is the S-300 really all the Iranian government could afford? Because it seem likes a rather disproportional response to the US threat.

 

[Feanor]

So first off the reason it's S-300 is because of production capacity. Almaz-Antey doesn't even have enough production capacity to fulfill state defense order for 2010 (it got reduced from 5 units to 4 units, and a new production facility is most likely going to be built). Second off the F-22 is not a bomber. Thirdly, Israel doesn't have the F-22. And fourthly, there nothing Iran can buy that would stop the USAF.

EDIT: To elaborate, the significance of the sale is not so much the ability to stop a US airstrike, as it is to deterr a potential Israeli air-strike, and more importantly demonstrate a level of trust and cooperation between Russia and Iran. And while militarily this would mean Israel would run higher risks in a potential air strike, diplomatically this would mean that Iran would essentially have Russian support for what it does.

In that sense the reluctance, and delays, with the deliveries of the S-300 are significant in that they demonstrate that even if deliveries do take place, Russia does not have unconditional support or trust for Iran.

The possibility of Iran developing an S-300 level system in the next 3-4 years is non-existent.

 

[spinnage]

I stand corrected. The F-22 is indeed no bomber, but does however have ground attacking capabilities despite the fact that it's considered to be an air superiority fighter.

I am aware than Israel does not posses the F-22, which is why entertained the idea of America selling a batch of them to Israel in my first post.

So, what are Iran's intentions with the S-300? Is it merely political? Does the Iranian government have something else to worry about that such a defense system would prevent?

800 million is a lot to pay just to make a point.

EDIT: I think your elaboration just answered those questions quite well. Thanks

 

[Feanor]

Well first off this provides Iran with a state of the art SAM. Which I'm willing to bet, they fully intend to reverse engineer. Second-off this would be a new level of partnership for Iran and Russia. If Iran can get the S-300, they can get the Buk-M2, the command and control vehicles, etc. Possibly even production licenses for a lot of the equipment (they already had licenses for T-72s and BMP-2s). So in the long run it would offer definite advantages. Thirdly even an immediate deployment of the S-300 means Israel faces much higher risks when planning any air strikes against nuclear facilities. Coupled with the facilities being hardened, and dispersed, and coupled with the fact that Iran doesn't just have an imported reactor or two but rather has developed the technology from the ground up, the acquisition of these advanced systems would further point out the unlikelyhood of a successful attack on the program.

So between reaping political benefits, immediate security and deterrence benefits, and potential long-term military-technological benefits (after all their SAM forces are seriously in need of updating) 800 million isn't such a high price tag. Iirc they paid more (like 1.2 billion) for the Tors and 2 S-125s. I'm very interested in seeing whether the deal goes through. Coincidentally the deal comes on top of recent commentary at DefExpo-2010 from Russian sources that "some countries" are looking at building an entire IADS out of Russian GBAD components. This is then followed my commentary that the price of such a deal would be very high, and if something along those lines took place, it would have to happen over a number of years, in several different purchases. It could be a hint that Iran is indeed seeking further SAMs purchases, and in that case the S-300 deal going through might open the gates to a number of additional purchases.

EDIT: The stalling is continuing, as Russian officials state that the delivery dates for the systems will be determined later on.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20100217/209631291.html

It's interesting that this deal coincides with the recent testings of the new missile for the S-400, which now gives it the full 400km engagement range. It's also interesting to note how much more reserved western commentary has been about this issue. Afterall there is nothing impossible in upgrading the S-300s to S-300PMU3 making them practically the equivalent of the S-400, and supply them with the new munitions.

 

[spinnage]

Thanks for bringing those points to the attention of the defense community.

Is it possible that the same technical issues that the Russians have encountered with the S-300 in Iran, could also occur with the newer S-400 models?

Perhaps the Russians are applying a far more broad correction to both models, this would explain more the delay and perhaps even the backlog of the S-400.

EDIT: It could also explain the current coincidental testing of the S-400

It would be understandable that Russia would want to apply any necessary corrections before sending them out, to avoid callbacks or compromises to the defense of foreign countries (the buyers.)

Going back to one of my previous questions; does Russia have the means to test its sovereign missile defense systems in tropical heat scenarios? Has the S-300 been tested in these conditions before?

Perhaps the Iranians have considered the request for an upgrade to the S-300PMU3, as a means of compensation for the delay. It seems that Iran might be providing a good source of in-the-field testing for Russia's defense systems.

So, it's clear that Iran lied about having their own sovereign missile defense system that could match the S-300. The questions is, why and to whom?

Israeli and US intelligence would have dismissed this claim in no time at all, and it's hard to believe that such a statement would be enough to intimidate Russia into a faster delivery of the S-300.

Is there any other country in that region that poses a threat to the Iranian nuclear program? A country with a lot less military intelligence and primitive air strike capabilities in which the S-300 would compromise the threat. A country that would give credit to such a claim.

Thanks for the continued input

 

[T.C.P]

There have been reports for some time about Israel getting F-35s for their air force as soon as 2013. Also it was said that the Israeli's claimed that the F-35 could strike Iran even if they had the S-300.
The IAF should not really be concerned with Iran's S-300 as they are not probably going to get it any sooner than 3-4 years and by then the IAF should have F-35s. But I can see why Israel is so concerned about the S-300, because it is the only weapon that the Iranians can bring to the field that can cause Israel some problems.
I mean the Iranian air force is a joke when you compare it to the IAF, all they have is a bunch of really old un upgrade F-14s(which are dying for spare parts) some really old MIG-29As and a handfulof indigeneous fighters based on the F-5. While Israel has a few hunderd upgrade F-16s including the F-16I sulfa, and a lot of F-15s including 25 F-15 RAMs. they have inflight refuelling capability and AWACS and have no logistic problems. Their air defence has Patriots and Arrow Trinities and they are backed up by the U.S.
So i seriously doubt Iran is going to be a much of a problem.

 

[Feanor]

I'm guessing the domestic missile system announcement, in the immediate sense, is more of a PR stunt then anything else. I'm fairly certain that the S-300 has been tested in hot-weather scenarios including in the former USSR. The new testing is to test for the new long-range missile, that makes the S-400 such a major improvement (principal rather then incremental) over the S-300PMU-2.

 

[spinnage]

Apparently Almaz-Antey, has dismissed reports that the delay in regard to the S-300 is due to a technical issue.

Vladimir Kazparyants has insisted that the motives are political.

It's quite interesting to hear such conflicting statements between Almaz-Antey and the Federal Government within Russia.

I wonder what Iran believes?

'No technical problem behind S-300 delivery delay'

 

[TIN MAN]

The easiest way for the US and Israel to counter the S-300 and other air defence systems is to just pull the plug on them...as allegedly happened in 2008?

 

[Feanor]

The easiest way for the US and Israel to counter the S-300 and other air defence systems is to just pull the plug on them...as allegedly happened in 2008?

Could you elaborate please? I'm not sure what you're referencing, or what you mean by plug.

And yes spinnage the discrepancy is indeed unpleasant. But it's not like we didn't know already what the real reasons behind the delay were. There was also earlier commentary from industry representatives that the Russian MIC would suffer heavily financially if the deal was cancelled, and that the decision to deliver or not deliver the systems is purely financial. In short the significance is that we're witnessing a public internal conflict between two sections of the elite in Russia.

 

[Grand Danois]

He's referring to Suter.

Suter (computer program) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Feanor]

Interesting. I didn't know of such a device. How does it get inside the hostile network?

 

[TIN MAN]

Yes, thats the one, this from Wiki, I know, I know, but other sources were highlighted in the article.

Operation Orchard - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"According to Aviation Week and Space Technology, U.S. industry and military sources speculated that the Israelis may have used technology similar to America's Suter airborne network attack system to allow their planes to pass undetected by radar into Syria. This would make it possible to feed enemy radar emitters with false targets, and even directly manipulate enemy sensors. Syria is reported to have the new state-of-the art Pantsyr-S1E Russian SAM systems. However, the system had not been functional at that time. The Syrian air defense that was operational at that time was suspected to be the Tor-M1 (SA-15) and outdated Pechora-2A (S-125/SA-3) surface-to-air missiles.


Aviation Week and Space Technology later reported that Israeli aircraft actually engaged a Syrian radar site in Tall al-Abuad, both with conventional precision bombs, electronic attack, and brute force jamming. They added that prior to the raid, the U.S. gave Israel information on Syrian air defenses."



I remember speculation that Hardwired landlines were tapped into by the Israeli`s to introduce the "BUG".

 

[spinnage]

I have been researching a little further into the Russian S-300 and its variants. It was interesting to read the particulates of the S-300PS/S-300PM. Thought to have been the only model fitted with nuclear warheads.

S-300 (missile) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Is it common for a missile defense system to be installed with nuclear warheads? It seems rather excessive for a counter-measure.

Is it feasible that Iran could reverse engineer the S-300, and use that knowledge to develop a more advanced delivery system for a nuclear warhead? It would certainly be something to worry about if the difference between the S-300PS and the S-300 that the Iranians are due to receive is only marginal.

Which brings me to another key question that I would like to ask the defense talk community. What is the technical definition between weapons of defense and attack? What is it that logistically qualifies a weapon to be defensive?

Could the S-300 be modified to be used as a nuclear missile launching solution for the Iranians?

In light of the the new 400km range of the S-400, perhaps we are beginning to see a new era where military systems of defense and attack will either be one unified system, or variants of a extremely similar hardware.

We have seen an increase in this type of production trend with the new F-35 and it's variants.

This same principle is also applied to today's new AMD and Intel CPUs. Completely identical at the manufacturing level, but sold and used at different configurations.

Needless to say, this production trend is bound to continue considering the obvious advantages; overall costs, production speeds, maintenance & pilot training/flexibility (I imagine that it's much easier to train one pilot to fly all variants of the F-35, as opposed to 3 different types of jets.)

Can we predict a narrower marginal difference in hardware between offensive and defensive missile systems in the near future?

PS: I would just like to remind the defense talk community that the information on wikipedia is not without its inaccuracies.

Example: "Vice Chairman of Russia's State Duma Vladimir Zhirinovsky has urged the fast delivery of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran."



S-400 (SAM) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Stan Badboy]

I think we will don`t sell S-300 to Iran.
1.We don`t wanna have new nuclear islamic country near our borderline.
2.We don`t wanna advanced anti-aircraft systems at Iran.
3.The IAF or USAF and orbital intelligence from USA are compatible to destroy Iran AA defence.Including some S-300 systems.The Irans can`t use this systems without technical support from Russian specialists.
4.To USA people from Russia....Forget about Iran.Finish your operations in Afghan & Iraq.
From Russia with love,huh)))))

 

[Stan Badboy]

Zhirinovski........he`s famous russian clown from our government.When we read his new replies from our White House,we are smiling...One stupid clown it is not voice of all Russians.It`s fact.

 

[Feanor]

Ministry of foreign affairs says the the systems will be delivered.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ íå îòêàæåòñÿ îò ïîñòàâêè Èðàíó çåíèòíûõ ðàêåò Ñ-300, çàÿâèëè â ÌÈÄ

Please keep in mind the level of technological sophistication needed to operationalize a nuclear warhead on an S-300 is pretty high. It will be years before Iran can even effectively reverse engineer the S-300. I wouldn't worry about them being a new SRBM platofmr for Iranian nukes.

 

[spinnage]

There have been a number of unconfirmed claims that S-300s and/or their components have been sold to Iran as early as 1993 from Belarus, and then later on from countries such as Croatia and Libya.

Although these are merely claims, it does entertain the possibility that Iran has been in possession of this technology for a significant period of time, probably a lot longer than we think.

The very fact that Iran continues to pursue particular interest in the Russian S-300, could suggests some extremely positive results and satisfactions conveyed from previous purchases.

I have chosen not to speculate on the time line required to reverse engineer the S-300, because no one really knows for sure, when Iran first came into contact with this technology.

It makes little sense to me that Iran is being so persistent in regard to an 800 million deal for a system that they cannot operate and would require years of reverse engineering to acquire any technological benefit, by which time would be fairly outdated.

My opinion follows, for what it's worth

Iran acquired an unknown number of S-300PMU-1 munitions in the early 90s, which later resulted in follow-up purchases of the system itself (probably at a time when Iran's nuclear enrichment program began to fall under the tighter scrutiny of the US, Israel and the IAEA)
During this period up until 2007, Iran successfully applied its own brand of vast modifications to an older soviet S-300 model but still strongly based on original Russian component architecture.

Iran continues to remind the international community its plans to unveil its own sovereign missile defense systems, that I believe will be an S-300 Hybrid design.

Iran plans to produce more of these in the near future but requires more of the raw components which can be served upon the completion of the deal with Russia, despite the fact that this particular S-300 that the Russians are selling to Iran is probably a stripped-down variant designed to soften the financial blow as the Russians upgrade to the new S-400s.

This explains why Russia will go through with the deal. They know Iran already has the S-300 and that they have already reverse engineered the technology enough to produce a hybrid design.

This also explains why Iran doesn't mind spending 800 million on a missile defense system that only a specialized Russian engineer can operate and maintain. I believe Iran has no intention of using the S-300, as it is served by the Russians. It will most likely be a production line contribution to a hybrid S-300 for Iran to pass off as its own sovereign defense.

This is of course, just an opinion