Will the F-35 replace the F-15 in the USAF?

Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
Actually Bonza you are not thinking outside the box. Let's say we develop new air to air missiles that have built-in sensors and are not reliant upon a plane's radar. The plane would now become just a carrier like the B-52 with ALCMs. And shear numbers would matter most.
And when an opponent develops similar missiles, how do you ensure survivability of your platforms? With modern LO aircraft equipped with a wide range of sensors, or with a turboprop trainer?

If you can guarantee your planes are flying low enough to avoid radar (something I highly doubt), how would you cue missile launches against distant targets? Sensor systems based completely in the missile won't do it - how will you know when to launch your missiles when your plane has no idea where the target is? If you're flying that low your radar horizon is going to leave a lot to be desired, so how are you going to cue launches from hundreds of kilometers away? And how can you guarantee your opponent will not be able to shoot your planes down if they deploy similar missile technology to what you describe?

Of course, you might think sheer numbers will win you the battle - but how will it win you the war? You have to maintain a sustainable sortie rate, not just send in thousands of planes and let hundreds be shot down per sortie in the pursuit of air superiority. That's economically and politically risky. So when you say "sheer numbers would matter most" then yes, you ARE talking about attritional warfare.

And for that matter, how is an AT-6 or similar going to carry an appreciable payload of these new missiles? With the sort of sensor systems and fuel you'll need for a precision, long range air-to-air missile, you realise you'll end up with something quite large? Perhaps a little too much for an AT-6 to carry. Certainly the range of your platforms will suffer according to the weight and drag of the payload.

So before you tell me I'm "not thinking outside the box" maybe you should acknowledge that there's shortcomings of your theory... of course, maybe I'm wrong, in which case perhaps you could explain to me why no air force on earth has come to the same conclusion as you?
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Actually Bonza you are not thinking outside the box. Let's say we develop new air to air missiles that have built-in sensors and are not reliant upon a plane's radar. The plane would now become just a carrier like the B-52 with ALCMs. And shear numbers would matter most.
Missiles currently do carry on-board sensors, IR or semi-active radar usually. However, due to the size of the missile nose cone and electric plant, the sensors have no where near the performance of aircraft-mounted sensors. A fighter can potentially detect a target hundreds of kilometers depending on vector. Most missiles have a maximum detection range in the tens of kilometers.

As far as the lawsuit about the F-35 software goes, I have some questions as to the validity of the claim itself. I admit I do not have any significant details, just a hunch. Having said that, I find a few things I have found out about the case curious. For one, the lawyer filing the case against LockMart has done so before with the F-22 and Deepwater programmes. For another, this case is being filed on behalf of the US by an ex-LockMart employee for claimed violations of the False Claims Act (FCA). If the case against LockMart was being brought by the DoD, Justice Dept, a US Attorney's Office, etc or if they join the suit, then there would be IMO greater legitimacy of the claim. At present it amounts to a private citizen suing a company for alleged violations of a contract between the company and the US government. Since the US government is not at present a party to the suit, one most presume that either the government is ignorant of the allegations, or finds them lacking in sufficient merit to pursue a remedy in court. If the US government does not join the suit at a later date or file its own suit, then the latter is the most likely situation. Two other things to note; admittedly I have not read the entire brief, but I have not encountered a reference to the ex-employee claiming retributive dismissal for being a 'whistleblower' which makes me think either the allegations were either (1) not reported when initially encountered, or (2) reported and investigated with a satisfactory conclusion by any oversight bodies, and (3) unrelated to why the ex-employee is no longer with LockMart. The other thing is that an FCA violation like those alleged revolves around whether or not proper & sufficient testing/documentation as stipulated in the original contract occurred, it has nothing to do with whether or not the system can perform as required.

By way of example, if a ballistic plate contract required a plate capable of stopping 7.62 x 51 mm NATO standard AP round and to be tested by shooting such a plate at 15 m with the aforementioned round, it could still be considered an FCA violation if that same plate was passed after having successfully stopped a .50 BMG AP round at 15 m instead of a 7.62 x 51 mm AP round.

-Cheers
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The missile-focused idea was developed by the US Navy 50 years ago. Look up the XF6D Missileer, a subsonic jet with long loiter time mounting six long-range Mach 4.5+ AAMs. The Eagle AAM-N-10 envisioned for the F6D was a complicated missile with 300 km range, active terminal guidance and home-on-jam, warhead choice of conventional or nuclear.

The concept was seen as too narrow and unflexible, and the concept was ultimately developed on to create the F-14 (through the F-108), which used the same basic missile system with smaller AAM-N-11 Phoenix missiles (and the same engines as the F6D-1 btw) in a fleet defense role, but could be used for other roles as well. The whole thing was btw also seen as way too pricy for its limited role, and with a LO aircraft that would be an even bigger concern..
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
Link to article and False Claims Act lawsuit filing

http://www.f-16.net/news_article3635.html
And these are allegations only made by the claimant. They have been neither admitted by the defendant nor proven to a Court's satisfaction.

Go to any civil court any weekday and you'll hear all sorts of claims made by one party or another. Doesn't amount to much unless settlement is made (in which case you'll likely never find out the answers to the questions) or the allegations are proven to the standard required for the court.

Very interesting to know that this same lawyer has done this before. How did his previous attempts go, I wonder???
 

luccloud

New Member
Supposedly just 1 F-35 has the air to air capability of 6 F-15s.

So what do you think, will the F-35 actually replace the F-15? If so then the 1763 number will be justified.
How did they come up with the 1 to 6 capability number? Are they base on 1 on 1 situation or 1 F35 fight 6 F15 at the same time?
 

Haavarla

Active Member
Actually the prop aircraft could fly so low they could avoid most radar and surface to air missiles. My point is that the money is invested in planes and not missiles. If we diverted more money into missile technology we could make them more independent of the plane. Therefore shear numbers would dominate the air. Opposing fighters would not have enough missiles to shoot them all down.

eeeh, remember 1st GW anybody. How did the LOW flying Tornardos fare against the rag tag Iraqi Airdefence?

How far do you see a slow prop would make it inlands before being mowed down by some light Flak airdefence..:rolleyes:


Thanks
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
How did they come up with the 1 to 6 capability number? Are they base on 1 on 1 situation or 1 F35 fight 6 F15 at the same time?
I've also seen the same way of measuring this in a study on the SH over "legacy" - it's not about air-air judication but as much about sortie generation, munitions on target in ata and atg, attrition rates, logistics, etc.

Seen similar on the ef .com site in ages past - effectiveness over legacy expressed in spiderwebs and attrition over a week compared e.g. Su-27 (availability is horrid over time for the Suk).

Anyhow, it's not about combat judication, L-M is not fudging numbers, there is nothing sinister about it, everybody else does it (Operations research - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) - Boeing, EADS, L-M....

It's a CONOPS comparisons.

But it just HAS to be suspicious when L-M says it! :D

GF used to talk a lot about the five Ps of capability. Power is also a function of Persistence and Projection - which is why there is so much focus on the prognostics and logistics side of F-35, including allied "deep warehousing".

E.g. if you can average twice as many sorties with the same number of jets over a week (F-35 to F-15), then you have far better battlefield coverage, comms assets, surveillance, more missiles in the air (lofted), more munitions on ground targets, more fuel in the air at any given time - a massive tactical advantage over legacy.
 
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F-15 Eagle

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #48
How did they come up with the 1 to 6 capability number? Are they base on 1 on 1 situation or 1 F35 fight 6 F15 at the same time?
Honestly I' just going off what I see, I really have no idea if 1 F-35 can do the job of 6 F-15s in ATA. Maybe, maybe not.

Perhaps someone here with more knowledge in this area could help you.;)
 

Scorpion82

New Member
Honestly I' just going off what I see, I really have no idea if 1 F-35 can do the job of 6 F-15s in ATA. Maybe, maybe not.

Perhaps someone here with more knowledge in this area could help you.;)
I think that statement is related to a simulation study conducted a few month ago. In that study the F-35 achieved a kill ratio of 6:1, while existing designs achieved just a 1:1. In other words "six times as effective".
 

F-15 Eagle

New Member
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  • #50
I think that statement is related to a simulation study conducted a few month ago. In that study the F-35 achieved a kill ratio of 6:1, while existing designs achieved just a 1:1. In other words "six times as effective".
How reliable or accurate are those simulation studies?
 

Marc 1

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
How reliable or accurate are those simulation studies?
It depends on how it is "situated". The guru's can possibly set up a scenario that can prove a Sopwith Pup is superior as an air superiority weapon than an F22.

There was a recent example where the F-35 was found to be in one of these studies inferior to the Su 30's in a close in visual range dogfight. APA were doing cartwheels when they learned about that simulation (they disagree with the Australian Governments selection of the F-35). Of course that simulation from memory did not take into account the fact that 95% of the Sukhoi's would have been smoking holes in the ground before even closing to visual range...but hey, never let the truth get in the way of a good story eh?
 

Bluesaphirro

New Member
The current 2010 QDR calls for 6 air superiority wings. My assumption is that will includes 2 wings of F-22s with 144 out of 187 aircraft and 4 wings of F-35s to replace the F-15 C/D, each wing of 72 aircraft a peace.

Supposedly just 1 F-35 has the air to air capability of 6 F-15s.

So what do you think, will the F-35 actually replace the F-15? If so then the 1763 number will be justified.
Ah.. I thougt the F22 (Invictus) Raptor "the unconquered" Is the one that is already replacing the F15C/D Eagle variants in USAF service? The F22 Is the all true Stealth Fighter Intercpetor Jet that is already replace most of the F15C/D Eagle in USAF service.. The American government had already given a lot of dollars to that fighter-jet in order to fulfill it mission securing and defending America against potential aggressors which I have to who? Russia again?.. I don't think so.. :cool:
 

F-15 Eagle

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #54
Ah.. I thougt the F22 (Invictus) Raptor "the unconquered" Is the one that is already replacing the F15C/D Eagle variants in USAF service? The F22 Is the all true Stealth Fighter Intercpetor Jet that is already replace most of the F15C/D Eagle in USAF service.. The American government had already given a lot of dollars to that fighter-jet in order to fulfill it mission securing and defending America against potential aggressors which I have to who? Russia again?.. I don't think so.. :cool:
187 F-22s can't replace all 450 F-15 C/Ds so the F-35s will. And yes Russia again, its always been that way.;)
 

Kilo 2-3

New Member
Ah.. I thougt the F22 (Invictus) Raptor "the unconquered" Is the one that is already replacing the F15C/D Eagle variants in USAF service? The F22 Is the all true Stealth Fighter Intercpetor Jet that is already replace most of the F15C/D Eagle in USAF service.. The American government had already given a lot of dollars to that fighter-jet in order to fulfill it mission securing and defending America against potential aggressors which I have to who? Russia again?.. I don't think so.. :cool:
Not to mention China and any other baddies with relatively modern air forces. The F-22 is also well adapted to MiG CAP and fighter sweep missions over areas with mutliple threats or serious IADS and GCI/radar networks.

Its stealth gives it an advanatge over more than just enemy fighters and aircraft.
 

the_big_m_in_ok

New Member
Not to mention China and any other baddies with relatively modern air forces. The F-22 is also well adapted to MiG CAP and fighter sweep missions over areas with mutliple threats or serious IADS and GCI/radar networks.
Its stealth gives it an advanatge over more than just enemy fighters and aircraft.
I saw an article on the Internet that the F-15 SE(Silent Eagle) will be ready for shipment in, say, 18 months.

IMHO, If the SE costs $100 million, and the F-22/F-35 both cost about the same, the SE being a proven design, having the latest electronic countermeasures avionics, then it would be just a good a deal and with a production line all ready to go with a minimum of retooling.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I saw an article on the Internet that the F-15 SE(Silent Eagle) will be ready for shipment in, say, 18 months.

IMHO, If the SE costs $100 million, and the F-22/F-35 both cost about the same, the SE being a proven design, having the latest electronic countermeasures avionics, then it would be just a good a deal and with a production line all ready to go with a minimum of retooling.
There's a thread on the Silent Eagle and the F-15SE is not in service (nor has any country signed up to buy it at the moment), which covers the same ground you intend to thread here. There's some JSF costs overruns and you may want to review what was said by other forum members on F-35 pricing - in particular all posts by SpudmanWP, he's very good on pricing.

Hope this helps you navigate the forum.
 

the_big_m_in_ok

New Member
OPSSG(Moderator):

With respect to your Reply #57,

Thank you for the suggestion. I had seen titles to threads referring to F15's, F-22s and F-35s, but since I haven't reached 10 posts as of yet, I can't post definite references to information concerning my opinions.

You're correct about the F-15SE not being available yet, but I think future pricing trends are problematic to predict ahead of time because of a variety of factors, unseen.
I implied the SE would be available at a competitive price eventually, and the manufacturer stated in the article that that was what they were counting on.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
OPSSG(Moderator):Thank you for the suggestion. I had seen titles to threads referring to F15's, F-22s and F-35s, but since I haven't reached 10 posts as of yet, I can't post definite references to information concerning my opinions.
I know that you can't post links at the moment. This is because we have to do some spam control measures. BTW, I'm just welcoming you and trying to help you navigate the forum and find past posts/threads that are relevant and of interest to you.

You're correct about the F-15SE not being available yet, but I think future pricing trends are problematic to predict ahead of time because of a variety of factors, unseen.
I implied the SE would be available at a competitive price eventually, and the manufacturer stated in the article that that was what they were counting on.
Pricing is a little complex and subject to much discussion / disagreement. Thread with care, as you are not using the usual language. :D
 

the_big_m_in_ok

New Member
I know that you can't post links at the moment. This is because we have to do some spam control measures. BTW, I'm just welcoming you and trying to help you navigate the forum and find past posts/threads that are relevant and of interest to you.
Very good, I see now. Fortunately, I have some experience with this type of software on another site. I can make a quicker start here because of it.
Pricing is a little complex and subject to much discussion / disagreement.
Corporate and national politics may also figure into the situation, but you have a point.
Thread with care, as you are not using the usual language. :D
Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning, but any heplful hints are welcome by me.
 
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