There are several reasons to decide to go to war or intervene. Its root is an interventionist policy, but it is much more than that... There are several factors, some of which lie in moral groundings.
There are, however there are also driving factors which guide wider policy. That's why foreign policy trends are generally predictable even when governments change. You could not get more ideologically opposed leaders than Bush and Obama, but in terms of foregin policy, what has changed? Rhetoric, and that's about all.
nfloorl: You read George Friedman I see. I tend to disagree with his views that the world will return to its 19th century ways of Byzantinian and set-piece politics...
I do in fact, amongst others. I'm not sure why you would give him a
nfloorl:. Friedman and stratfor keep making the right calls as far as I can tell, and he uses geopolitics for the foundation of many of his forecasts.
And while I agree different time periods are of course individual, there are fundamental forces that transcend individual time periods. You can trace the same geographical and demographic forces causing similar actions by the same nations over periods of hundreds of years. The historical record does not lie. Or do you think that this period in history is somehow so special that forces that have guided international actions over the last 500 years have suddenly stopped? We saw more change in the 20th century than the last thousand years yet the same conflicts that played out in the 1700's repeated again with the same, albeit modern protagonists. However the ideological justification could not have been more different.
The world never left power politics, what do you think the cold war was exactly? Good guys vs the Bad guys? Commies vs the Imperialists? I'll let you in on a little secret, it was competition between the US and Russia and their respective ideologies wouldn't have mattered a damn. Yes we have international institutions now, which is something new. But do you really think they dominate foregin policy decissions?
No our time is not special. Its just like every other age. Defined by its technology but still just the earth and its nations.
Specific events tend to reflect other occurences in history; however, time periods do not echo.
Have you actually read Friedman? There is ample evidence that the opposite is in fact the case. Individual events and details are governed by the particulars of that time frame i.e.e technology, partizan stance ext ext and rarely resemble prior events (Barbarossa and Napoleons invasion looked quite different). But the general trends repeat themselves over and over again, simply because there are fundamental forces that determine what actions are in a nations interests, and almost without exception a leader will act in the national interest. (Both Hitler and Napoleon launched a summer campaign in order to defeat European Russia).
The US is a democracy. Though it has a general outlook on the world, policy changes from President to President and some make different decisions than their predecessors or have a different Legislative branch in power. Priorities shift... Specific policy changes.
But that's the thing, in terms of foreign policy especially, policy trends DO NOT change when there is a change of government. Look at the US's Iraq policy over a 20 year period. Bush sr defeats Iraq in Gulf War 1, establishes a policy of containment. Democratic president Clinton elected, continues the policy of containment and launches punitive air strikes. Republican president Bush Jr elected, continues the policy of containment, and after 9/11 invades, post surge has a policy of phased withdrawl depending on security conditions. Democrat President Obama elected, continues the policy of phased withdrawal. 4 presidents from both sides of politics, no substantial change in policy from the president before them on the most contentious foreign policy agenda of our time. The only thing that changed was the rhetoric.
Same story on North Korea, Europe, Iran, China, the entire cold war, grand strategy in general. Rhetoric may have changed, and new policy may have been implemented as the international situation evolved. But not once was there a paradigm shift in foreign policy after an election. And by Paradigm Shift i mean a President decided to totally reverse a foreign policy stance simply because they thought it was the right thing to do.
The UK followed a policy of maintaining the continental balance of power for hundreds of years, through not only partisan changes of government but constitutional changes as well. Why didn't someone decide to abandon the policy when they came to power?
The approach to a policy may change, but the fundamental doctrine almost never changes because said doctrine is always a logical reaction to international developments. The US never fundamentally altered its policy of containment of the Soviet Union, despite several changes of government, simply because it made seance.
That doesn't absolve the people or leader of responsibility for certain actions, but there are things that were bound to happen simply because they were logical.
Do you think the US would not have invaded Afghanistan if Al Gore was in power? I could go on forever.....
Again, the US has several reasons to do what it does. Interventionism, expansionism, and globalism revolve around the belief that expanding 1st world economies and Westernization of the world is good. I happen to agree with those beliefs.
I disagree, they revolve around the notion that they are good for the United States, i.e. because it is in America's national interest. Anny additional benefit is superfluous. That is the fundamental question any leader will consider when they make a foreign policy choice, "is this in the national interest?". If the answer is no the no action is taken. There is nothing nessisarilly wrong with that. What more can you expect from a leader?
You speak of interventionism, if national interest was not the primary driving factor of military intervention then explain why the US only intervenes when it's interests are at stake? A leader can think a course of action is the morally correct thing to do, but they will rarely do it if it does not directly benefit their nation. Clinton is a good, moral man. Why didn't he use the US military to stop the bloodshed in Rwanda or West Africa? The answer should be obvious.
This is the fundamental foundation of geopolitics, a nation will always act in its own self interest (much like the individual in a free market). That self interest is usually determined by, among other things, its geography (what happens in Cuba has little effect on Australia, but Indonesia is critical because of its geographical position). If you accept these basic principles, and there is a mountain of evidence to support them, then you can't laugh at Firedman's work. Its a methodical extrapolation of a nations actions using those principles, and so far he has been pretty close to the mark.