Taliban Uprising - Is the state of Pakistan in peril?

[mysterious]

Actually it is not very easy to undestand what is going on inside Pakistan.Pakistani talaban have now ten or more groups fighting with PA... Most of these groups armed and trained by PA during Afghan Rissia war.

Actually its not that difficult to understand at all. Before 2003/04, FATA region and surrounding areas were quiet because no one challenged the militants' stranglehold over that territory.

Following Pakistan's decision to send in paramilitary units supported by regular army ones & later the US drone attacks has made life miserable for these militants; hence you see them using all sorts of diabolical tactics to retain their control over the area.

And by the way, there's only one major group fighting the Pakistan Army which is the TTP [Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan]. The other major group, the TSNM [Tehreek-i-Nifaz-e-Shariat Muhammadi] does not support fighting Pakistani troops but aims at NATO troops in Afghanistan [except for some minor splinter groups that have been bribed away by TTP to fight Pakistan Army]. The result? Clashes between TTP & TSNM; of which one was reported just yesterday in which both sides suffered atleast a dozen casualties. They are fighting each other as much as fighting Pakistan Army.

And not ALL were 'trained' by Pakistanis. Even using the word 'trained' would be a misnomer. Financial support doesn't always equal 'military training' - and as such most financial support was extended by Pakistanis to Hekmatyar and Haqqani factions [both also supported & supplied by CIA & Saudis during Soviet occupation of Afghanistan].

These groups have also links with Mullah Omar and Afghan talaban and they are freely moving across Pak Afghan boarder.It is impossible to control their movement... US drone attacks actualy motivated local pushtoon tribes in talaban support against PA and GOP.

First assumption partially true; second one utterly false.

1) The only reason militants now continue to cross back & forth over the Pak-Afghan border with relative ease is the ultimate NATO & Afghan failure on the Afghan side of the border since given just the numerical boots on the ground even; Pakistan has twice the number of troops patrolling the rugged terrain with nearly 7x more border checkposts.

Also, Pakistan's repeated attempts to get consensus from Afghanistan to fence & mine the border to prevent infiltration has been turned down by Afghanistan owing to its government 'dreaming' [quite literally] of some day wanting to alter the 'Durand Line'.

2) Contrary to your ridiculous claim; the U.S. drone attacks have caused limited resentment both among Pashtun tribes living in FATA & the wider Pakistani public [I say this being a Pakistani myself] because the drones have consistently hit militant targets quite accurately to my knowledge [apart from one or two mishaps].

Today most Pashtun tribes support Pakistani armed forces in their bid to flush out Taliban or exterminate them.

Now satuation is very bad more then 20 million local peoples already left their homes and PA alone could not get control of whole NWFP and practically now FATA and SWAT is now no man land.This war may continue for many decades... This satuation will further creat problems for NATO and ISAF in Afghanistan.

Wrong yet again. The exact number of displaced local people [from Swat to South Waziristan] currently stands at 3.4m. Pakistan Army is an 'army', not a 'police force'; if you know two cents about military tactics, you would know that it is NOT the army's job to have presence on every street of the entire North-West Frontier Province. That job is for the police and local administrations.

As for Swat, most of Swat has already been retaken by Pakistan Army units. Within the next 2-3weeks, displaced Swatis will asked to return to their homes. Hence your claim of Swat being a 'no mans land' is utterly baseless & flawed.

Yes, the war is to continue for many years but it all depends on NATO & corrupt Afghan forces in Afghanistan. The onus is now on them to finally turn a leaf & start showing some progress instead of failure after failure owing to which Pakistan is suffering.

 

[waraich]

mysterious;176227]Actually its not that difficult to understand at all. Before 2003/04, FATA region and surrounding areas were quiet because no one challenged the militants' stranglehold over that territory.

Following Pakistan's decision to send in paramilitary units supported by regular army ones & later the US drone attacks has made life miserable for these militants; hence you see them using all sorts of diabolical tactics to retain their control over the area.

You are painting rosy picture ,PA attacked more then six times in SWAT before and also Waziristan,Wana and Bagour but could not suceed.Reason is local tribes are supporting these groups.

Drone attacks actually is just like putting oil on fire ,very stupid strategy, neither GOP and nor understand the culture and traditions of pushtoon tribes.

And by the way, there's only one major group fighting the Pakistan Army which is the TTP [Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan]. The other major group, the TSNM [Tehreek-i-Nifaz-e-Shariat Muhammadi] does not support fighting Pakistani troops but aims at NATO troops in Afghanistan [except for some minor splinter groups that have been bribed away by TTP to fight Pakistan Army]. The result? Clashes between TTP & TSNM; of which one was reported just yesterday in which both sides suffered atleast a dozen casualties. They are fighting each other as much as fighting Pakistan Army.

And not ALL were 'trained' by Pakistanis. Even using the word 'trained' would be a misnomer. Financial support doesn't always equal 'military training' - and as such most financial support was extended by Pakistanis to Hekmatyar and Haqqani factions [both also supported & supplied by CIA & Saudis during Soviet occupation of Afghanistan].

In pushtoon tribal structure each tribe has its own chief ,there are more then 10 big tribes living in NWFP and Afghanistan .They are independent but supporting each other.

All these tribes were funded by CIA and PA during Afghan war and now they are well equiped experienced and linked with other international jehadi groups.Now it is very difficult to break this network.

First assumption partially true; second one utterly false.

1) The only reason militants now continue to cross back & forth over the Pak-Afghan border with relative ease is the ultimate NATO & Afghan failure on the Afghan side of the border since given just the numerical boots on the ground even; Pakistan has twice the number of troops patrolling the rugged terrain with nearly 7x more border checkposts.

Also, Pakistan's repeated attempts to get consensus from Afghanistan to fence & mine the border to prevent infiltration has been turned down by Afghanistan owing to its government 'dreaming' [quite literally] of some day wanting to alter the 'Durand Line'.

2) Contrary to your ridiculous claim; the U.S. drone attacks have caused limited resentment both among Pashtun tribes living in FATA & the wider Pakistani public [I say this being a Pakistani myself] because the drones have consistently hit militant targets quite accurately to my knowledge [apart from one or two mishaps].

Today most Pashtun tribes support Pakistani armed forces in their bid to flush out Taliban or exterminate them.

Again baised media story .
It is impossible for PA and ISAF to control movement across boarder due to length and mountains.
These Pusthoon tribes are independent and not under GOP ,unfortunately in past GOP had not provided basic facilities ,they are independent and will only help GOP if there is long term agreement with them ,it may need 100 Bill USD investment to rehabiltate and build basic infrastructure in that area.
Presently they are not supporting PA.

Wrong yet again. The exact number of displaced local people [from Swat to South Waziristan] currently stands at 3.4m. Pakistan Army is an 'army', not a 'police force'; if you know two cents about military tactics, you would know that it is NOT the army's job to have presence on every street of the entire North-West Frontier Province. That job is for the police and local administrations.

As for Swat, most of Swat has already been retaken by Pakistan Army units. Within the next 2-3weeks, displaced Swatis will asked to return to their homes. Hence your claim of Swat being a 'no mans land' is utterly baseless & flawed.

Yes, the war is to continue for many years but it all depends on NATO & corrupt Afghan forces in Afghanistan. The onus is now on them to finally turn a leaf & start showing some progress instead of failure after failure owing to which Pakistan is suffering.

Point is if GOP know that this number of people will be effected what was their plan to settle them .It is totally mis planed action of GOP and PA.

IDP are very much angry with GOP and PA because of their abrupt action.this is not way to liberate hostages from terroist to kill them all.

GOP and Afghan Gov. both are corrupt they are least concern about their people and taking hasty decisions under US pressure.

On other side US strategy is totally failed ,they repeatedly changing top brass which is totally failed to judge the depth of water.

Afghanistan and NWFP is not Iraq ,US generals,American policy makers ( i will not consider GOP because they are just greedy agents) should learn from past history of these people they are very good friends and also very bad enemy .There is difference between victory and strategic victory ,please understand the difference and come back for discussion.

 

[webmaster]

Actually it is not very easy to undestand what is going on inside Pakistan.Pakistani talaban have now ten or more groups fighting with PA.
Most of these groups armed and trained by PA during Afghan Rissia war.
These groups have also links with Mullah Omar and Afghan talaban and they are freely moving across Pak Afghan boarder.It is impossible to control their movement.
US drone attacks actualy motivated local pushtoon tribes in talaban support against PA and GOP .
Now satuation is very bad more then 20 million local peoples already left their homes and PA alone could not get control of whole NWFP and practically now FATA and SWAT is now no man land.This war may continue for many decades.
This satuation will further creat problems for NATO and ISAF in Afghanistan.

Nonsense. Few factual errors in your reply, part of the larger media misinformation campaign that is going on today:

- considering amount of spelling mistakes in your reply, I doubt you know what you are talking about!!!
- Tehreek-e-Pakistan Taliban (TTP) did NOT exist before 2005.
- These groups are new, there were no "taliban" in afghan-soviet war. Taliban were created as a result and fallout of soviet war, and they took control of Kabul in 1995. The soviets left Afghanistan in 1988/89 and US did too and then Pakistan was slapped with sanctions. Do you know what was happening in Afghanistan from 1988 to 1995? Do you know what was happening in Afghanistan from 1995 to 2001? I think you should do some research on that.
- There is no evidence that TTP is supported by Afghani taliban headed by Mullah Omar. Its a new phenomenon which follows a centuries old takfiri ideology (beheadings, suicide bombings, etc.) and only exists in tribal areas of Pakistan and this threat did not exist prior to year 2005. Read the news for once so you will understand who is supporting TTP, where they are getting money and equipment.

Do some research, the geopolitical situation is well documented.

 

[mysterious]

You are painting rosy picture ,PA attacked more then six times in SWAT before and also Waziristan,Wana and Bagour but could not suceed. Reason is local tribes are supporting these groups.

Wrong yet again. Do you even read some news at all on a regular basis? Previous military operations in Swat and elsewhere failed for two reasons: 1) Pakistan did NOT rely on REGULAR Pakistan Army units; instead letting poorly-equipped FC Para-military units spearhead Ops against Taliban who were more heavily & better armed; 2) Pakistani public and Pashtun tribes people were not united against Taliban.

Both those reasons have been neutralized by the current/ongoing operations. After the Taliban dug their own grave owing to their public relations disaster [flogging a girl in public, denouncing Pakistan's constitution, judiciary, etc], the political will to permanently exterminate them became strengthened.

This time Regular Pakistan Army units as well as SSG Commando units are being used against them for the first time while on the other hand; the majority of the public opinon [both settled areas and Pashtun tribes] is strongly behind Pakistan Army. Here is some news to enlighten you with regards to latest developments:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/8085680.stm

Drone attacks actually is just like putting oil on fire ,very stupid strategy, neither GOP and nor understand the culture and traditions of pushtoon tribes.

In pushtoon tribal structure each tribe has its own chief ,there are more then 10 big tribes living in NWFP and Afghanistan .They are independent but supporting each other.

Yes, drone attacks are politically unsuitable but militarily, they're the only things that have disrupted militant activity considerably. The Pashtun tribes are not blind when they see 'who' has died in the drone attack which is mostly militants in their 'safe houses' confirmed by the multiple media outlets based on the fact within minutes of a drone attack, militants come, cordone off the destroyed house/hideout & quickly remove the dead bodies of their comrades.

Pashtuns also know that the Taliban have 'used' and 'abused' their tribal code of hospitality [Pakhtunwali].

All these tribes were funded by CIA and PA during Afghan war and now they are well equiped experienced and linked with other international jehadi groups. Now it is very difficult to break this network.

You are changing your original stance. Breaking networks is difficult but not impossible. Swat is a glaring example of success.

Again baised media story... It is impossible for PA and ISAF to control movement across boarder due to length and mountains... These Pusthoon tribes are independent and not under GOP, unfortunately in past GOP had not provided basic facilities, they are independent and will only help GOP if there is long term agreement with them, it may need 100 Bill USD investment to rehabiltate and build basic infrastructure in that area. Presently they are not supporting PA.

It is very easy to denounce every media outlet as 'biased' just because you do not like the cold & bitter truth. Denial is not an answer to Afg-Pak border area's problems. Most Pakistani Pashtuns live at ease, comfort and security given the fact that Pakistani government accepts their tribal traditions and respects them. The only Pashtuns making noise are ones on the Afghan side of the border.

They are not supporting Pakistan Army? As stated earlier, I will reiterate my request for you to start reading up some news other than what rubbish propaganda you've come to believe. Most Pashtun tribes currently support Pakistan Army with evidence being the fact that tribes are themselves forming lashkars to aid Pakistan Army in hunting down Taliban while also pointing out Taliban [leading to their arrests] who have shaved their beards off to blend with civilians in the refugee camps that are currently catering to people from Swat and other FATA areas.

Point is if GOP know that this number of people will be effected what was their plan to settle them. It is totally mis-planed action of GOP and PA.. IDP are very much angry with GOP and PA because of their abrupt action.this is not way to liberate hostages from terroist to kill them all..

Yes, the planning could have been somewhat better for the IDPs but if I were an IDP, I'd rather live in a refugee camp [with all its tough conditions] rather than live in fear for my live 24hrs, 7days a week because of Taliban thugs out on the street with daily head-choppings and propaganda radio broadcasts. And ofcourse, I'd love having a fresh-shave every day or two at the local barber:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8083320.stm

GOP and Afghan Gov. both are corrupt they are least concern about their people and taking hasty decisions under US pressure...

Afghanistan and NWFP is not Iraq ,US generals,American policy makers (I will not consider GOP because they are just greedy agents) should learn from past history of these people they are very good friends and also very bad enemy .There is difference between victory and strategic victory ,please understand the difference and come back for discussion.

GoP maybe corrupt but certainly is not brutal to its own people like what the Taliban were doing in Swat and elsewhere. They are thugs who have no place in a civilized society. They will either lay down their arms, or wiped out. Pakistanis stand behind their army 200%.

If GoP was an 'agend' of America, then the agent would have no problem letting American troops come in to Pakistan to kill Taliban and Al-Qaeda themselves; but clearly that is not the case. In today's globalized world, you have to compromise on sovereignty somewhere down the line; only thing to decide is by 'how much'.

Dont waste your time blaming America for problems of Muslims, etc. I'm a Muslim too, I dont agree with many American policies but acting like an idiot is not helping your case either. The same Americans have donated nearly $210m for IDPs whereas the so-called 'brotherly' Muslim countries whom Pakistanis regard as their brethren are nowhere to be found when it comes to helping fellow Muslims. So far, no significant help has come from any OIC country. Who is the real 'enemy' you should start asking: hint --> our own indifference to each other.

 

[waraich]

Nonsense. Few factual errors in your reply, part of the larger media misinformation campaign that is going on today:

- considering amount of spelling mistakes in your reply, I doubt you know what you are talking about!!!
- Tehreek-e-Pakistan Taliban (TTP) did NOT exist before 2005.
- These groups are new, there were no "taliban" in afghan-soviet war. Taliban were created as a result and fallout of soviet war, and they took control of Kabul in 1995. The soviets left Afghanistan in 1988/89 and US did too and then Pakistan was slapped with sanctions. Do you know what was happening in Afghanistan from 1988 to 1995? Do you know what was happening in Afghanistan from 1995 to 2001? I think you should do some research on that.
- There is no evidence that TTP is supported by Afghani taliban headed by Mullah Omar. Its a new phenomenon which follows a centuries old takfiri ideology (beheadings, suicide bombings, etc.) and only exists in tribal areas of Pakistan and this threat did not exist prior to year 2005. Read the news for once so you will understand who is supporting TTP, where they are getting money and equipment.

Do some research, the geopolitical situation is well documented.

Actually Afghan waring factions in Russian Jehad renamed as Talaban by PA(Zia Regime) and recongnised and supported their government .
TTP founder Mahsud actually participated in Afghan Russian war, still supporting Mulla Omer.
Agreed ,TTP was not well known before 2005 ,they declared war againt PA after Musharaf attacked Waziristan,Wana etc.

They are basically hanafi muslims not Takfiri or salfi but derailed by OBL ,he used them for his anti US plans.

 

[waraich]

Wrong yet again. Do you even read some news at all on a regular basis? Previous military operations in Swat and elsewhere failed for two reasons: 1) Pakistan did NOT rely on REGULAR Pakistan Army units; instead letting poorly-equipped FC Para-military units spearhead Ops against Taliban who were more heavily & better armed; 2) Pakistani public and Pashtun tribes people were not united against Taliban.

Both those reasons have been neutralized by the current/ongoing operations. After the Taliban dug their own grave owing to their public relations disaster [flogging a girl in public, denouncing Pakistan's constitution, judiciary, etc], the political will to permanently exterminate them became strengthened.

This time Regular Pakistan Army units as well as SSG Commando units are being used against them for the first time while on the other hand; the majority of the public opinon [both settled areas and Pashtun tribes] is strongly behind Pakistan Army. Here is some news to enlighten you with regards to latest developments:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/8085680.stm

I dont agree with you because local tribes dont like army to stay in their area for longer period , they have their own girga system,GOP has to withdraw army after flushing exteremists.

Yes, drone attacks are politically unsuitable but militarily, they're the only things that have disrupted militant activity considerably. The Pashtun tribes are not blind when they see 'who' has died in the drone attack which is mostly militants in their 'safe houses' confirmed by the multiple media outlets based on the fact within minutes of a drone attack, militants come, cordone off the destroyed house/hideout & quickly remove the dead bodies of their comrades.

Pashtuns also know that the Taliban have 'used' and 'abused' their tribal code of hospitality [Pakhtunwali].

Agreed local tribes are now against talaban mafia but if drone attackes continue they might again support talaban.

You are changing your original stance. Breaking networks is difficult but not impossible. Swat is a glaring example of success.

Talaban network can be broken if GOP/PA win local tribes hearts but still this is not the case.

It is very easy to denounce every media outlet as 'biased' just because you do not like the cold & bitter truth. Denial is not an answer to Afg-Pak border area's problems. Most Pakistani Pashtuns live at ease, comfort and security given the fact that Pakistani government accepts their tribal traditions and respects them. The only Pashtuns making noise are ones on the Afghan side of the border.

They are not supporting Pakistan Army? As stated earlier, I will reiterate my request for you to start reading up some news other than what rubbish propaganda you've come to believe. Most Pashtun tribes currently support Pakistan Army with evidence being the fact that tribes are themselves forming lashkars to aid Pakistan Army in hunting down Taliban while also pointing out Taliban [leading to their arrests] who have shaved their beards off to blend with civilians in the refugee camps that are currently catering to people from Swat and other FATA areas.

Which news papers western or pakistan or indian , there is no neutral media coverage , no news of how many civilian dead in Army action in SWAT.

Yes, the planning could have been somewhat better for the IDPs but if I were an IDP, I'd rather live in a refugee camp [with all its tough conditions] rather than live in fear for my live 24hrs, 7days a week because of Taliban thugs out on the street with daily head-choppings and propaganda radio broadcasts. And ofcourse, I'd love having a fresh-shave every day or two at the local barber:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8083320.stm

No comment

GoP maybe corrupt but certainly is not brutal to its own people like what the Taliban were doing in Swat and elsewhere. They are thugs who have no place in a civilized society. They will either lay down their arms, or wiped out. Pakistanis stand behind their army 200%.

If GoP was an 'agend' of America, then the agent would have no problem letting American troops come in to Pakistan to kill Taliban and Al-Qaeda themselves; but clearly that is not the case. In today's globalized world, you have to compromise on sovereignty somewhere down the line; only thing to decide is by 'how much'.

Dont waste your time blaming America for problems of Muslims, etc. I'm a Muslim too, I dont agree with many American policies but acting like an idiot is not helping your case either. The same Americans have donated nearly $210m for IDPs whereas the so-called 'brotherly' Muslim countries whom Pakistanis regard as their brethren are nowhere to be found when it comes to helping fellow Muslims. So far, no significant help has come from any OIC country. Who is the real 'enemy' you should start asking: hint --> our own indifference to each other.

[/QUOTE]

Much more needed to bring things back to normal. US new Obama regime taking or planning few constructive steps in middle east.If Hamas and Hizbullah can be involved in peace talks then Afghan Talaban and TNSM can also be considered for peace talks.

 

[mysterious]

I dont agree with you because local tribes dont like army to stay in their area for longer period , they have their own girga system,GOP has to withdraw army after flushing exteremists.

Agreed local tribes are now against talaban mafia but if drone attackes continue they might again support talaban.

Talaban network can be broken if GOP/PA win local tribes hearts but still this is not the case.

Its not that local tribes dislike the army or anything like that. The only reason is tribes don't want their area to become a battlefield between Pakistan Army & Taliban cuz they know Taliban use human-shields, hide in Mosques, schools and houses of locals which are then targetted by Pakistan Army.

And to re-inforce the point I made earlier. Here's a terrific piece on how tribes all along the frontier have started turning against the Taliban with a vengeance:
PAKISTAN HAS AWAKENED: http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0607/p06s08-wosc.html

Also; Pakistan is already winning the battle for hearts & minds [which the Taliban have already lost by a good measure]. Today's DailyTimes Pakistan has a report on how local administration has quickly given 125,000 fruit & vegetable seedlings to farmers from Bajaur whose crops were destroyed in the fighting during the operation to clear Taliban from Bajaur. Quick response to such demands by locals will continue to help Pakistan.

Already Pakistan Army has announced that it will stay in Swat for atleast one year.

 

[waraich]

Its not that local tribes dislike the army or anything like that. The only reason is tribes don't want their area to become a battlefield between Pakistan Army & Taliban cuz they know Taliban use human-shields, hide in Mosques, schools and houses of locals which are then targetted by Pakistan Army.

And to re-inforce the point I made earlier. Here's a terrific piece on how tribes all along the frontier have started turning against the Taliban with a vengeance:
PAKISTAN HAS AWAKENED: 'Pakistan has awakened': Locals fight back against Taliban | csmonitor.com

Also; Pakistan is already winning the battle for hearts & minds [which the Taliban have already lost by a good measure]. Today's DailyTimes Pakistan has a report on how local administration has quickly given 125,000 fruit & vegetable seedlings to farmers from Bajaur whose crops were destroyed in the fighting during the operation to clear Taliban from Bajaur. Quick response to such demands by locals will continue to help Pakistan.

Already Pakistan Army has announced that it will stay in Swat for atleast one year.

When ever army or police got unlimited authority it may creat lot of social disputes and started corruption .
Second thing is local tribal jirga system can not function in presence of Army which local people dont allow at any cost.
The talaban know this fact very well that is reason they initially got support of local tribes.
I think only solution acceptable to puhstoon tribes will be to strengthen their jirga system and army vocate the area within few months

 

[OPSSG]

Here's an audio trip report (Pakistan & Afghanistan) by Trudy Rubin who writes a column in the Philadelphia Inquirer. She reports on a major shift in Pakistan public opinion against the Taliban. Compared with the political crisis of three months ago, Pakistan now has opposition leader Nawaz Sharif in support of the government on the fight against the Taliban and the military is also behind the campaign.

When ever army or police got unlimited authority it may creat lot of social disputes and started corruption .
Second thing is local tribal jirga system can not function in presence of Army which local people dont allow at any cost.

You state the obvious - that corruption exists. Like many third world countries, Pakistan's government suffers from a certain level of corruption. However the fact that corruption exists does not preclude the need for the Pakistani state to eventually extend some level of effective state control over the less governed regions of Pakistan.

The talaban know this fact very well that is reason they initially got support of local tribes.
I think only solution acceptable to puhstoon tribes will be to strengthen their jirga system and army vacate the area within few months

It seems to a outsider like me that the extremists are in the ascendancy in Pakistan with a certain level of local support from the tribal areas. That is why, I'm not very keen to see the jirga system reinstated without the participation or input of the Pakistani state - in some manner or form.

You should also remember that the extremists have an agenda and their agenda is to grow their influence. IMO, any Pakistani government appeasement towards the extremist agenda of the Taliban is doomed to failure (as with the earlier attempt at compromise). At the moment, I'm not sure if the Pakistani army or the government has the right strategy going forward.

Could someone with better local knowledge enlighten me on the situation in Pakistan? As an outside observer, I find myself often confused about what is happening in Pakistan.

 

[webmaster]

Actually Afghan waring factions in Russian Jehad renamed as Talaban by PA(Zia Regime) and recongnised and supported their government .
TTP founder Mahsud actually participated in Afghan Russian war, still supporting Mulla Omer.
Agreed ,TTP was not well known before 2005 ,they declared war againt PA after Musharaf attacked Waziristan,Wana etc.

They are basically hanafi muslims not Takfiri or salfi but derailed by OBL ,he used them for his anti US plans.

TTP different than Afghani Taliban, do some research... also read this story:

The Taliban will ‘never be defeated’ - Times Online

Not the message in headline but bit of the history in the article above.

Here is what Musharraf had to say about TTP:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,628960,00.html

When soviets left and upto 1995, kabul was falling to one warlord after another (NOT Taliban), there was no peace. It was non stop bombardment of the afghan capital. The Taliban took over in 1995 and finally peace returned until 2001. I would say it again, do some research on this topic as well as on the takfiri ideology. There is nothing in 4 Islamic schools of thoughts (including hanafiya) that says that the beheadings, suicide bombings, and targeting innocent civilians in public areas, mosques, churches, etc. are permitted. These thugs are a breed lower than Humans and they must be eliminated.

P.S.: Work on your spellings as well. It is hard to take someone seriously about important geopolitical matters when their posts are infested with basic spelling mistakes and besides, its one of the rules here on DT Forum!!!

 

[mysterious]

It seems to a outsider like me that the extremists are in the ascendancy in Pakistan with a certain level of local support from the tribal areas. That is why, I'm not very keen to see the jirga system reinstated without the participation or input of the Pakistani state - in some manner or form.

You should also remember that the extremists have an agenda and their agenda is to grow their influence. IMO, any Pakistani government appeasement towards the extremist agenda of the Taliban is doomed to failure (as with the earlier attempt at compromise). At the moment, I'm not sure if the Pakistani army or the government has the right strategy going forward.

Could someone with better local knowledge enlighten me on the situation in Pakistan? As an outside observer, I find myself often confused about what is happening in Pakistan.

Wrong. The local 'jirga' system is honored and accepted by the Pakistani army as well as the government keeping in line with respected local tribal customs and traditions. Both user 'warraich' and yourself make the wrong assumptions.

User 'warraich' assumes that smoehow jirga's lose their effectiveness when army is present in the area; which is absurd given ground realities where both the Pakistani political administration and army units work in conjunction with the local elders who form the spine of the 'jirga' system.

Your assumption that a return to the jirga system somehow means ascedency of extremism in Pakistan is also baseless since most tribal elders who form the backbone of jirgas - stated above - are highly opposed to Taliban militants and their 'brand' of Islam. This is supported by the fact that countless tribal elders who have held the local jirga system in place for decades have been killed ruthlessly by the Taliban prior to establishing themselves as the power-brokers.

Hence, the aim of the Pakistani offensive against Taliban is to restore the local jirga and tribal 'malik' [a political agent who traditionally represents the Pakistani state in tribal affairs & decision makings] so that things return to normal. Pakistani state has always had a representation in the jirga system via 'maliks', it is absolutely wrong to assume otherwise.

The current operations in Swat and their success, both militarily and politically, prove that the strategy being used by Pakistan is working [may not be perfect but its yielding results]; unlike American, Afghan & NATO efforts in neighboring Afghanistan that have failed miserably.

 

[OPSSG]

Wrong. The local 'jirga' system is honored and accepted by the Pakistani army as well as the government keeping in line with respected local tribal customs and traditions. Both user 'warraich' and yourself make the wrong assumptions.

User 'warraich' assumes that smoehow jirga's lose their effectiveness when army is present in the area; which is absurd given ground realities where both the Pakistani political administration and army units work in conjunction with the local elders who form the spine of the 'jirga' system.

Your assumption that a return to the jirga system somehow means ascedency of extremism in Pakistan is also baseless since most tribal elders who form the backbone of jirgas - stated above - are highly opposed to Taliban militants and their 'brand' of Islam. This is supported by the fact that countless tribal elders who have held the local jirga system in place for decades have been killed ruthlessly by the Taliban prior to establishing themselves as the power-brokers.

Hence, the aim of the Pakistani offensive against Taliban is to restore the local jirga and tribal 'malik' [a political agent who traditionally represents the Pakistani state in tribal affairs & decision makings] so that things return to normal. Pakistani state has always had a representation in the jirga system via 'maliks', it is absolutely wrong to assume otherwise.

The current operations in Swat and their success, both militarily and politically, prove that the strategy being used by Pakistan is working [may not be perfect but its yielding results]; unlike American, Afghan & NATO efforts in neighboring Afghanistan that have failed miserably.

Thanks for the clarification on the jirga system and I stand corrected.

As a outside observer, I find that warraich's discussion on the matter is causing more confusion for me - rather than clarifying matters for me. Many, many thanks for explaining the basics much more clearly to me.

My point is not that the return of existing system will cause extremism. Rather, I'm talking about the need for the Pakistani state to eventually extend some level of effective state control over the less governed regions of Pakistan. If Pakistan as a state fails to get involved in the tribal areas - via the provision of basic state services - like roads, water, primary medical care and some access to education - what's to prevent another 'uprising' of dissatisfaction with the state by the people in the tribal areas?

Further, it seems that there are also some misguided local people in the tribal areas of Pakistan who support these extremists - otherwise you have to claim that all extremists have come from across the Afghan border. So please explain (as I don't understand your point)! To me, some of the enemies of the Pakistani state are found within the borders of the state.

IMO, it is too early to tell if Pakistan's current operations in Swat (both militarily and politically) is a success. Where is the data to support your claims of success? And what about the refugees who have been displaced by the fighting? Despite saying all that, I do hope that Pakistan's security forces will succeed in their current operations against the extremists.

I hope I'm being clear about the area I require clarification - so that you can correct any misconceptions that I may have.

 

[Firn]

Sharing the conservative approach of OPSSG I wonder too to which extent the effort of the Pakistani forces have gained ground and population.

I also think that the majority of the Taliban fighters come from inside Pakistan, or better from some regions of Pakistan. This does not mean that they have the overwhelming or even strong support from the population there, but it seems that at least in some parts they have been able to temporarily take over by force, ideals and terror. Now the latter certainly has proven to cut in two directions and it also seems that the lofty ideals have been contrasted with the brutal reality

I for one hope that the Pakistani state can extend the rule of law and peace and security, mostly in accordance with the specific needs of the local society.

 

[webmaster]

If anybody thinks that success of the Pakistani military can be sustained WITHOUT any effort in Afghanistan, then they are grossly mistaken! It is not exactly walk in the park as far as extending rule of law and security is concerned in the tribal belt.

Moreover, it is even harder to change anything when Afghanistan is being used by the thugs to recover and launch more attacks. Talibs are using advanced equipment, they have financial support, they are using American/NATO and indian (do your own research on this) weapons which were either given to them or they were stolen, GOD knows.

I would like to see this happen:

ISAF securing the border region of Afghanistan while Pakistan secures its side of the border. Then ISAF should launch attacks inside afghanistan, central and southern afghanistan as well as the northeast region and drive the militants towards the center and north rather than into Pakistan since we don't really want a nuclear power, Pakistan losing its grip and potentially falling in the hands of talibs.

I said it before and will say it again: India and Pakistan have their own issues, ISAF/NATO shouldn't be taking sides in this matter if they really want help from Pakistan in a sincere manner. Since Afghanistan isn't a stable country and instead of having 12 embassies behind secured walls and barricades, Indians should pack up and go home and come back when the ground realities have changed and peace/security have returned to afghanistan with democractic government which can actually do something.

 

[mysterious]

.. My point is not that the return of existing system will cause extremism. Rather, I'm talking about the need for the Pakistani state to eventually extend some level of effective state control over the less governed regions of Pakistan. If Pakistan as a state fails to get involved in the tribal areas - via the provision of basic state services - like roads, water, primary medical care and some access to education - what's to prevent another 'uprising' of dissatisfaction with the state by the people in the tribal areas?

Yes, Pakistani politicians & people alike, accept today that they have somewhat ignored the tribal areas for the past 60yrs; that have remained devoid of any effective infrastructural development, etc. But this is a two fold problem because it is not 'entirely' the Pakistani state's creation.

The tribal areas have remained the way they are today since colonial times; where even the British did not wish to venture to extend 'effective' British control after humiliating defeats at the hands of the local tribes - hence the categorization of the region as 'frontier'. These tribes are 'fiercely' (I mean that word in its utmost manifestation) independent & do NOT like foreigners coming to their lands - not foreigners in a Euro-centric sense; but foreigners as in those who were not born on that land.

So the basic issue here is of empowering local tribes by using tribal elders & maliks to provide basic facilities that would make more tribes gravitate towards the government's side. Yes its late & sort of 'reactive' but Pakistan has begun formulating projects that aim to cultivate stronger state & citizenry ties with help from United States, UNDP, etc.

Further, it seems that there are also some misguided local people in the tribal areas of Pakistan who support these extremists - otherwise you have to claim that all extremists have come from across the Afghan border. So please explain (as I don't understand your point)! To me, some of the enemies of the Pakistani state are found within the borders of the state.

Ofcourse there are some who support the likes of Taliban. As stated earlier; I said 'most' tribal elder oppose Taliban and after the brutal campaign of targetted assassinations of pro-government elders by Taliban; one should seriously take in to account two facets of becoming pro-Taliban. Voluntary and that which is coerced. Many Taliban have forced families in many tribes at gunpoint to marry off their daughters to a Taliban fighter so that they entrench themselves in local communities that way & knowing the Pashtun culture; it then becomes difficult for that family to not support their own son-in-law.

As for extremists coming from across the border. It is by now common knowledge that Pakistani Taliban are 25% comprised of foreigners; the rest are local 'Taliban wannabes' who, before joining the Taliban were nothing but petty criminals, thugs, ran drug-mafias, etc. Today the blanket term 'Taliban' - especially in Pakistan applies to 'anyone' and 'everyone' hiding behind the facade of a some utopia pursuing Islamic insurgency when the only aim is power-grab. There are some very complex sociological and economical dimensions at play here.

IMO, it is too early to tell if Pakistan's current operations in Swat (both militarily and politically) is a success. Where is the data to support your claims of success? And what about the refugees who have been displaced by the fighting? Despite saying all that, I do hope that Pakistan's security forces will succeed in their current operations against the extremists.

Well so far, the Swat operation has been a success no matter how 'cautious' and 'careful' we want to be with our 'assessments'. The fact that tribe after tribe, village after village is turning against the Taliban is in itself explicit evidence of Pakistan Army's successes. In the past, people who tried to stand up to the Taliban were killed by the Talibs because Pakistan Army did not come to support those locals who stood up. This time its different; locals see 'hope' & have calculated their chances of success, throwing their lot behind Pakistan Army. Evidence is here:
BBC NEWS | Programmes | From Our Own Correspondent | Pakistanis turn backs on 'erring' Taliban

and here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/10/world/asia/10pstan.html?_r=1&ref=world
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/world/asia/01pstan.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/05/world/asia/05refugees.html

The issue that remains for both the Pakistani government and the United States is to ensure that the Internally Displaced Persons are taken care of to prevent them becoming easy prey for Taliban recruitment.

 

[OPSSG]

WebMaster and mysterious thanks for the really helpful reply posts - they provide context that is often lacking in news reports on the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On 8 June, 2009, it was reported that villagers in Doog Darra area of Upper Dir district angered by mosque blast attack Taliban, which indicates that the Taliban are slowly losing their local support base.

 

[webmaster]

No Problem. I would love to hear how we can have peace in Pakistan without stablising and taking care of the problem in Afghanistan first. Whenever there has been trouble in Afghanistan, neighboring countries have suffered. Afghanistan is where the problem started. According to latest reports, some 7,000 additional marines are in Southern afghanistan so maybe strategy is changing and planners are waking up to the reality, finally.

 

[OPSSG]

An Afghan perspective of Pakistan and Indian lobbying efforts in Washington. A rather interesting read.

 

[Palnatoke]

Isn't the situation quite easy?


We have an insurgency. It fights of various reasons; Social injustice? religious views? ethnicity/nationalismen? - it's not very important, because you always got somebody who are in disagreement with the authority of some reason.

We have a state, who amoung it's many purposes and duties has one basic thing it has to deliver: Stability, Law and Order.

For the insurgency to prevail it has to achive one single objective: The surport OR, simply, control of the population.

Q: Ultimately, who does the population surport?
A: Ulitimately The population surport those that can deliver the basic things necessary for a good human life: Stability, Law and Order.

So the insurgency does 2+1 things:
A: Attacks the entities and institutions of the state, with the aim of rendering the state incabable of delivering it's basic functions: Stability, Law and Order.
B: In conjunction with (A), Directly attacks the civilian population (terror bombs, executions etc) with the aim of spreding fear and terror amoung the civilian population.

The strategical purpose of A+B is to turn the socity into chaos, in which there is no law and order. In which the individual is terrorized into passivity. In which the state looses it's legatimacy in the eyes of the population, because it cannot deliver on it's basic functions.

When this is achieved, the insurgency "conqurors" the population by establishing it self as the (only) provider of some sort of law and order (be that some mediviel code of law in which the only punishment is death by hanging or death by decapitation - It is not so important) .


In order to combat this, The State has one objective: The total and meticulous destruction of the insurgency and it's organisation(s). The insurgency has to be destroyed from the politician to the posterboy: From the foot soldier to the warlord.
This operation requires millitary intervention as well as policing - it is a subversive war aimed at subverting any ressistance, armed or not, against the state.

A state cannot get too brutal in this fight,

 

[uzodinma]

Introduction

This thread is devoted to current conflict in Pakistan in which an ever-growing part of the Pakistani territory seems to be infiltrated, disrupted or even controlled by a coalition of forces which seem to be united by a extremist view of Islam.

I think this might turn out to be one of the most decisive struggles in the first quarter of the 21th century. We should collect here articles, papers, documentaries in short all material which might be useful to analyse this conflict. We will then try to come up with an hopefully evolving synthesis concerning the strategy and the tactics of both the insurgents and the political and military leadership of Pakistan.

Only persons should contribute which have something useful to add. While this discussions has to touch sensitive matters I expect the posters to do so in an educated and composed fashion. I hope that the moderators here will delete posts which disturb the discussion and add nothing to the debate.


Thanks

The tactics of terrorists are simple:use Islam to cover up a drug empire.Islam forbids cocaine (haram) and ascribes it to Satan.Use the mass media,educational institutions and religious institutions to target other agents of socialization.This will destroy the local support the Taliban and Al Qaeda need to carry out guerrilla warfare.This could also cause an implosion within their organizations and reverse the roles: a Jihad against Al Qaeda and their allies by real Muslims