Georgian military build-up

[Feanor]

It wasn't the equipment was that ineffective. Russian equipment was on better in that regard. It was the Georgian's training that was ineffective. Essentially their armed forces didn't exist above the brigade, and in some cases battallion levels. There was little coordination, and overall organization was poor. Of course getting their HQs hit by SRBMs shortly into the war didn't help either.

 

[Chrom]

Also there is Georgian media report that artillery brigade will be recreated using Israeli and Czech equipment. I do not know much about rebuild of aviation and SAM defense but in my personal opinion Georgia should acquire Western weapons instead of old post-Soviet junk which ineffectivenesses was clearly shown during the last war.

Ya, the funny part what in russian hands even older post-Soviet junk proved to be very effective ')

Either way, most vital parts of Georgian military were equipped with Western equipment anyway. I mean communications, UAV, personal gears, etc. Even light arms... Even T-72 and SU-25 were partially modernized with western tech. I cant think which "old" Soviet equipment Georgia coud have replaced and get any increase in effectivity.

They could of course replace old T-72SIM with old Leo-1/M-60 (about same price tag..) - but i doubt it will bring anything good. Most likely, quite contrary. Georgians can replace old BTR-80/70 with some fancy old (or even new) western *cheap* IFV - but again, this will be even replacement at most.

What part of old soviet equipment in Georgian hands you want to replace? I mean, realistically, given finanicial constraints? We dont need old song about thousands F-22, M1A3 and PAC-3 in Tbilisi overnight...

 

[Arc Light]

I think you made false conclusions. Look at basic facts:

1. In fact Georgian Army was created four years before this war from scratch.

2. As opposed to Russian propaganda US programs to train Georgian military were not aimed at conventional manoeuvre warfare but peacekeeping operations. Georgian field doctrine was still of Soviet origin. Some modern Western assets like UAVs or comm network were not integrated into armed forces.

3. I cannot agree Georgian weapons was more Western than Soviet. All heavy equipment came from post WTO states. It was partially modernized but in small numbers as compared to its overall number. Thus Georgia had T-72, T-55 tanks, BMPs and BTRs armoured vehicles, old Russian and Czech artillery systems and SAMs.

4. Russia used similar arms but Russian Army had much more of them - quantitative advantage was very important fact because it allowed Russians to mount two front operations simultaneously.

5. Georgia almost lacked air force, navy and their air defence system was residual. So much numerous Russian Air Force, even outdated, was crucial to gain superiority over the battlefield.

6. I am pretty sure if Georgian Army had been properly trained and equipped with modern Western weaponry like, say M1A2 or Leo-2 tanks, top-attack F&F ATGMs of Javelin and Spike class, MLRS and artillery with smart munitions (SMArt, BONUS) and mines, AH-1Z gunships, medium range SAM network, Harpoon or Exocet anti-ship missiles, Russian Army would have been defeated aside of carrying out some all-out invasion with a hundred thousand troops.

 

[Feanor]

I think you made false conclusions. Look at basic facts:

1. In fact Georgian Army was created four years before this war from scratch.

Bingo. They had never had the time to develop large scale operations that they needed for this war.

2. As opposed to Russian propaganda US programs to train Georgian military were not aimed at conventional manoeuvre warfare but peacekeeping operations. Georgian field doctrine was still of Soviet origin. Some modern Western assets like UAVs or comm network were not integrated into armed forces.

Actually the armed forces weren't even integrated into a solid single structure. The individual brigades showed practically no cooperation.

3. I cannot agree Georgian weapons was more Western than Soviet. All heavy equipment came from post WTO states. It was partially modernized but in small numbers as compared to its overall number. Thus Georgia had T-72, T-55 tanks, BMPs and BTRs armoured vehicles, old Russian and Czech artillery systems and SAMs.

It's already been pointed out, 1) our (Russian) equipment was hardly better, and 2) it wasn't the equipment that was the root cause of the defeat.

4. Russia used similar arms but Russian Army had much more of them - quantitative advantage was very important fact because it allowed Russians to mount two front operations simultaneously.

Rubbish. Georgians had critical number advantage for the first half of the war, yet failed to capitalize on it due to lack of coordination.

5. Georgia almost lacked air force, navy and their air defence system was residual. So much numerous Russian Air Force, even outdated, was crucial to gain superiority over the battlefield.

That, and the Georgian IADS went off the air, and acted in ambush-style tactics for most of the war. They conceded control of the airspace.

6. I am pretty sure if Georgian Army had been properly trained and equipped with modern Western weaponry like, say M1A2 or Leo-2 tanks, top-attack F&F ATGMs of Javelin and Spike class, MLRS and artillery with smart munitions (SMArt, BONUS) and mines, AH-1Z gunships, medium range SAM network, Harpoon or Exocet anti-ship missiles, Russian Army would have been defeated aside of carrying out some all-out invasion with a hundred thousand troops.

They can't afford M1A2s, or Leo-2s, or smart munitions. Their military budget was overstretched as is, even with the buildup they did manage. You're talking about multi-billion dollar purchases of equipment, plus billions more on integration and training. In other words what you're saying is if a Western military had been in place of the Georgians, they would have won. Well no sh*t.....

Please do contextualize your assessment. Given the situation the Georgians were in, they could have hardly produced a more effective military. And equipment is the least of the problem here.

 

[Arc Light]

Bingo. They had never had the time to develop large scale operations that they needed for this war.

Actually the armed forces weren't even integrated into a solid single structure. The individual brigades showed practically no cooperation.

It is evident that Georgian Army could not win war with Russia but it could win with separatists alone. I did not state only weapon had crucial role here but it also mattered.

It's already been pointed out, 1) our (Russian) equipment was hardly better, and 2) it wasn't the equipment that was the root cause of the defeat.

Both sides weapons were approximately equal but Russian overwhelming numerical superiority, especially in the air, was decisive. Simply small amount of junk fought large amount of almost identical junk.

Rubbish. Georgians had critical number advantage for the first half of the war, yet failed to capitalize on it due to lack of coordination.

What? Russian aviation intervened from the outset limiting Georgian ground advantage. Also Russian reinforcements crossed Roki tunnel very quickly because there were prepared to move in advance. Georgians did not even try to block this strategic corridor. I would say their army's bad coordination and lack of modern Western weapons only enlarged Russian advantage.

They can't afford M1A2s, or Leo-2s, or smart munitions. Their military budget was overstretched as is, even with the buildup they did manage. You're talking about multi-billion dollar purchases of equipment, plus billions more on integration and training. In other words what you're saying is if a Western military had been in place of the Georgians, they would have won. Well no sh*t.....

You don't think Georgia would pay for all that equipment, right? There are some small states on this planet possessing very strong armies because they are sponsored by major powers. This would be also Georgia's case. So in the future it is quite probable US will help Georgia to field advanced weaponry of Western origin. For instance just before the war Georgia was in talks with BAE/Bofors to acquire smart anti-tank artillery munitions...I don't think Georgians would pay a bill from their own pocket...

Please do contextualize your assessment. Given the situation the Georgians were in, they could have hardly produced a more effective military. And equipment is the least of the problem here.

I cannot agree. How could they create army capable to win with Russian in four years? It was impossible task. They did much but not much enough: Georgia's military budget raised from 30 million USD to 750 millions USD, they purchased many second-hand heavy weapons from former WarPac states, they trained their troops together with US forces in COIN tactics. However it was not enough time to build professional and well equipped fighting force. No way!

 

[Feanor]

It is evident that Georgian Army could not win war with Russia but it could win with separatists alone. I did not state only weapon had crucial role here but it also mattered.

Problem was that the separatists did not exist within an empty space. There were Russian peacekeepers separating the two. It was impossible to defeat the separatists without attacking Russian troops.

And once again, had the Georgian military trained for this, had their officer corps been capable of organizing and leading the troops, they would have won with the equipment they had. Had they pushed forward decisively on Aug 9th, they would have bowled over the limited troops we had in the conflict zone. Sure that wouldn't have ended the conflict, but they could have easily plugged the Roki tunnel. It would have been a disaster. Possibly large enough to bring Medvedev and Co. to the negotiating table.

Both sides weapons were approximately equal but Russian overwhelming numerical superiority, especially in the air, was decisive. Simply small amount of junk fought large amount of almost identical junk.

Once again, for the first two days Georgian numerical superiority was overwhelming. only by the end of August 10th did our troops achieve sufficient concentrations to go on the offensive. All the way until the end, we did not have significant numerical superiority. However troop coordination on the operational level was much better, and the ground troops acted as a single integrated structure. The VVS was actually very weak, and performed extremely poorly during this conflict. It was ground combat that decided it.

What? Russian aviation intervened from the outset limiting Georgian ground advantage. Also Russian reinforcements crossed Roki tunnel very quickly because there were prepared to move in advance. Georgians did not even try to block this strategic corridor. I would say their army's bad coordination and lack of modern Western weapons only enlarged Russian advantage.

Actually our troops were in the conflict zone before Aug. 8th. By August 8th it seems that the 135th motor-rifles rgt and possibly the 693rd motor-rifles rgt. were already in the conflict zone. However, following those, the rest of the troops were very slow to enter. The Roki tunnel, fyi, is a single two-lane highway going through the mountains. It was backed up for close to 100km with military traffic, with many units stuck and unable to get through quickly enough.

You don't think Georgia would pay for all that equipment, right? There are some small states on this planet possessing very strong armies because they are sponsored by major powers. This would be also Georgia's case. So in the future it is quite probable US will help Georgia to field advanced weaponry of Western origin. For instance just before the war Georgia was in talks with BAE/Bofors to acquire smart anti-tank artillery munitions...I don't think Georgians would pay a bill from their own pocket...

In other words you think the US will pay for the Georgian military. Possible. But they already were, and the money they were giving wasn't enough to do what you're asking for.

I cannot agree. How could they create army capable to win with Russian in four years? It was impossible task. They did much but not much enough: Georgia's military budget raised from 30 million USD to 750 millions USD, they purchased many second-hand heavy weapons from former WarPac states, they trained their troops together with US forces in COIN tactics. However it was not enough time to build professional and well equipped fighting force. No way!

You do agree. You just said the same tihng that I said. That there was no way that the Georgians could have built the military necessary to win.

 

[Viktor]

I have a feeling Sucky will try once more to regain control at the end of its mandate as a president ... there is no other way to explain massive rearmament program after its country has being taken to stone age since it was already in middle age ....
Economy should be his first priority and here he is investing massivly in army once again ...
I dont think Israel will help this time .... im little confused Turkey decided to ...

 

[Arc Light]

Problem was that the separatists did not exist within an empty space. There were Russian peacekeepers separating the two. It was impossible to defeat the separatists without attacking Russian troops.

So I stand corrected: Georgian Army could defeat Osetians with "Russian peacekeepers" alone.

Yet there were no "Russian peacekeepers" there but CIS peacekeeper force including Georgians. The problem is those peacekeepers were not able to prevent separatists from shelling Georgian proper many days before 7th August.

And once again, had the Georgian military trained for this, had their officer corps been capable of organizing and leading the troops, they would have won with the equipment they had. Had they pushed forward decisively on Aug 9th, they would have bowled over the limited troops we had in the conflict zone. Sure that wouldn't have ended the conflict, but they could have easily plugged the Roki tunnel. It would have been a disaster. Possibly large enough to bring Medvedev and Co. to the negotiating table.

Completely false assumption. Understand Georgian Army was not trained to mount some blitzkrieg operations. It was impossible with Russian aid to defeat rebels. Do you think carry out such operation is a simple task for four years old army?
Besides you seem not to know anything about basic fact: Russian forces entered Georgia via Roki tunnel 7th August at night. So Russian intervention was planned in advance and no Georgian preemptive cut-off of Russian forces was real.

Once again, for the first two days Georgian numerical superiority was overwhelming. only by the end of August 10th did our troops achieve sufficient concentrations to go on the offensive. All the way until the end, we did not have significant numerical superiority. However troop coordination on the operational level was much better, and the ground troops acted as a single integrated structure. The VVS was actually very weak, and performed extremely poorly during this conflict. It was ground combat that decided it.

Russian aerial superiority was crucial because Georgia simply did not have air forces in practical terms. You cannot claim ground combat was decisive in such environment because it is not possible since WW2 to win without air parity at least. Many Georgian soldiers admitted they were forced to retreat by Russian bombs, not artillery. Also initial Georgian numerical superiority does not matter because Georgian Army only tried to capture Tschinvali. Yet in city battle smaller defender force always have an advantage. Moreover Russian ground reinforcements came to the rescue of the town on 8th August morning.

Actually our troops were in the conflict zone before Aug. 8th. By August 8th it seems that the 135th motor-rifles rgt and possibly the 693rd motor-rifles rgt. were already in the conflict zone. However, following those, the rest of the troops were very slow to enter. The Roki tunnel, fyi, is a single two-lane highway going through the mountains. It was backed up for close to 100km with military traffic, with many units stuck and unable to get through quickly enough.

Note two full strength regiments number about 6000 troops which is not a small force. In fact entire redeployment maneuver was practiced a month ago during "Kavkaz 2008" exercise. Also needed infrastructure had been built or repaired in Abkhazia and Osetia before the war started.

In other words you think the US will pay for the Georgian military. Possible. But they already were, and the money they were giving wasn't enough to do what you're asking for.

Because they did not finance acquisition of modern arms to Georgian Army. Georgians tried to buy cheap and old equipment exactly due to small US financial help. Yet now I mean US military aid similar to other American crucial allies i.e. "US weapons for US money". I do not think Georgia will buy post-Soviet equipment any longer.

You do agree. You just said the same tihng that I said. That there was no way that the Georgians could have built the military necessary to win.

This is not revealing! Of course Georgia could not win with separatists and Russians together possessing army trained to completely different kind of military operations and having quite old armament. Now this reality will change as I suppose.

 

[Arc Light]

I have a feeling Sucky will try once more to regain control at the end of its mandate as a president ... there is no other way to explain massive rearmament program after its country has being taken to stone age since it was already in middle age ....
Economy should be his first priority and here he is investing massivly in army once again ...
I dont think Israel will help this time .... im little confused Turkey decided to ...

Maybe sometimes regaining of country's lost soil is more important than economic development?

I fully agree "second round" is very probable but in several years when Georgian Army will be completely rebuilt and rearmed. On the other hand it is also possible Russians will try to overthrow Saakashvili earlier using some border provocation or so.
Israeli help ceased only temporarily. Simply Israel wants no more Russian weapon sales to Syria and Iran but after recent Israeli FM visit to Moscow this is rather impossible, so Israeli aid to Georgia will be restored. Now Turkey is a main channel of foreign arms to Georgia. Recently some undisclosed CI3 and field navigation equipment was shipped to Georgia. According to Russia Today also Pakistani missiles (I have no idea what it means...maybe surplus TOW-2A ATGMs from FMS? This ATGM can easily destroy every Russian tank from 4.5 km range including T-90 now being deployed in Osetia), missile boats (lack of anti-ship missiles had a grave consequences for Georgian Navy ) and armor will follow.

 

[Feanor]

So I stand corrected: Georgian Army could defeat Osetians with "Russian peacekeepers" alone.

Yet there were no "Russian peacekeepers" there but CIS peacekeeper force including Georgians. The problem is those peacekeepers were not able to prevent separatists from shelling Georgian proper many days before 7th August.

The war actually started the night from August 1st to August 2nd with a heavy exchange of fire from both sides, including artillery. There was also an Ossetian offensive on an illegal Georgian position deployed in violation of the protocol. The Ossetian offensive of course was also a violation. This was followed by intense fighting on the ground. Casualties were in the dozens by August 4th, including lost vehicles from the Georgian side.

The main point was, if Georgia had acted decisively and pushed forward on the 8th and 9th, they could have knocked over the troops in the area and plugged the tunnel, preventing reinfocements. After that it would simply be a matter of mopping up the mess and bracing for the political impact. Noteworthy, however is the fact that if Medvedev chose to pursue the war even after the tunnel was plugged, using Abkhazia as a staging ground, it would have been over either way.

Completely false assumption. Understand Georgian Army was not trained to mount some blitzkrieg operations. It was impossible with Russian aid to defeat rebels. Do you think carry out such operation is a simple task for four years old army?

What assumption? You're repeating what I said. They did not train for it.

Besides you seem not to know anything about basic fact: Russian forces entered Georgia via Roki tunnel 7th August at night. So Russian intervention was planned in advance and no Georgian preemptive cut-off of Russian forces was real.

I stated this fact myself earlier. Please do bother to read what I write.

Russian aerial superiority was crucial because Georgia simply did not have air forces in practical terms. You cannot claim ground combat was decisive in such environment because it is not possible since WW2 to win without air parity at least. Many Georgian soldiers admitted they were forced to retreat by Russian bombs, not artillery. Also initial Georgian numerical superiority does not matter because Georgian Army only tried to capture Tschinvali. Yet in city battle smaller defender force always have an advantage. Moreover Russian ground reinforcements came to the rescue of the town on 8th August morning.

Russian reinforcements on Aug. 8th were beaten back. The column from the 693rd regiment that attacked Georgian positions near the Zars road was encircled and defeated. It wasn't until late Aug. 10th that our troops could mount a successful offensive. Again VVS performance was very poor. We didn't even establish air superiority. On Aug. 10th Georgian aircraft were still flying.

Note two full strength regiments number about 6000 troops which is not a small force. In fact entire redeployment maneuver was practiced a month ago during "Kavkaz 2008" exercise. Also needed infrastructure had been built or repaired in Abkhazia and Osetia before the war started.

Two full regiments number a lot less then 6000 troops. They number more around 3000-4000. Btlns have 3 companies. Regiments have 3 MR bltns, and one tank btln, plus arty btln. Under 2000 total per regiment. There was no necessary infrastructure required for this. Please stop simply quoting Georgian media and do some serious research, and I mean first hand accounts and actual descriptions of the combat that took place. Fyi the tanks in the 693rd regiment were T-62s. I.e. they were even more outdated then the Georgian equipment.

Because they did not finance acquisition of modern arms to Georgian Army. Georgians tried to buy cheap and old equipment exactly due to small US financial help. Yet now I mean US military aid similar to other American crucial allies i.e. "US weapons for US money". I do not think Georgia will buy post-Soviet equipment any longer.

Time will tell.

This is not revealing! Of course Georgia could not win with separatists and Russians together possessing army trained to completely different kind of military operations and having quite old armament. Now this reality will change as I suppose.

I doubt it will change. I doubt the Georgian Army will be capable of matching our deployments ever. The 58th Army alone will for the forseeable future be able to smash anything the Georgians can put into the field.

 

[Viktor]

deldel

 

[Viktor]

Besides you seem not to know anything about basic fact: Russian forces entered Georgia via Roki tunnel 7th August at night. So Russian intervention was planned in advance and no Georgian preemptive cut-off of Russian forces was real

I guess you where there in Roki tunnel on 7th August at night waiting for those pesky Russians ... LOL ... lies buy Sucky-Willy that needed to justify artillery barage over civilian population ....
Same excuse reminds me on Hitlers excuse over Poland invasion.

Also initial Georgian numerical superiority does not matter because Georgian Army only tried to capture Tschinvali. Yet in city battle smaller defender force always have an advantage.

Georgian numeriority does matter because it tried to capture entire S.Ossetia as soon as posible and cut of Russian buy blowing up Roki tunnel where they got massacred .... as deserved.

Defenders of S.Ossetia only task was to keep the city and main road until Russians arive ... other than that was pritty mutch undefended ...

Many Georgian soldiers admitted they were forced to retreat by Russian bombs, not artillery.

LOL ... those attacked by Su-25/24 etc admit they run because of areal bombardment not artillery ... very honest of them to say at least ...
I wonder what would those who run from artillery shelling have to say.

I do not think Georgia will buy post-Soviet equipment any longer.

Like that will make any difference.
Besides .. where is Georgia gona find money for western equipment .. it still has debts to Ukraine over ultra-cheap-stock-provided-soviet-weaponary ...

Of course Georgia could not win with separatists and Russians together possessing army trained to completely different kind of military operations and having quite old armament. Now this reality will change as I suppose.

Now besides Georgean US peacekeeping military training, Georgians has also payed Israel military instructors for witch I do not belive they had any peacefull on they mind.

 

[cabatli_53]

A littile bit old news from 2008 but Noone did not mention any of that news about Georgia...

The MRTP 33 Fast Patrol Boat [FPB] under construction by Yonca-Onuk for the Georgian Coast Guard and scheduled for delivery in June ‘o8, is to be equipped with a 25mm Stabilised Gun [StoP] turret of Aselsan. Currently under development, the remotely-operated StoP system can be armed with either a 25mm or 3omm gun. According to Aselsan officials the gun selection has not yet been made, however potential candidates are:
• Rheinmetall Italy SPA [former Oerlikon Contraves SPA]: 25mm KBA
• Rheinmetall Waffe Munition GmBH: 3omm MK30-2
• ATK: 25mm M242 Bushmaster and 3omm M44

The advanced composite MRTP 33 Fast Patrol Boat for Georgia will be powered by two 2,72o kW MTU 16V4ooo M9o diesels and a MJP 753 water jet, allowing speeds of up to 64kt in calm waters and up to 4okt at Sea State 4. The boat will operate for three days with a range of 65onm at 34kt.
A stabilised and remotely operated gun platform, StoP will provide precision firing capabilities day and night. A 3omm gun version of StoP has already been selected for the Pakistani MRTP 33s, ordered in late ‘o6 and the first boat PNS ZARRAR inducted into Pakistani Navy fleet without any armament on November 26, ‘o7. PNS ZARRAR will be fitted with 30mm Stop and Harpoon Block II SSM for its role in coastal defence and offensive opperations.

The prototype 12.7mm machine gun-armed version of the stabilised turret, dubbed STAMP, was installed on a 9o-tonne MRTP 29 Fast Intervention Boat of the Turkish Coast Guard Command [TCGC] and completed harbour and sea acceptance tests. Official delivery of the 12.7mm STAMP to the TCGC took place on November 19, ‘o7. The TCGC is planning to equip 22 boats in service [MRTP 29 and MRTP 33 Class] with STAMP.

Meanwhile, a 7.62mm machine gun armed version of STAMP has been deployed for the first time on an MRTP 16 Class Fast Intervention Boat, built for the Malaysian Coast Guard.

Monch Yay?nc?l?k - Aselsan launches StoP with the Georgian MRTP33 FPB

and Second Georgian MRTP-33 are on production phrase in Yonca-Onuk shipyard in Turkey...

and Aselsan STOP turret

 

[Chrom]

Maybe sometimes regaining of country's lost soil is more important than economic development?

I fully agree "second round" is very probable but in several years when Georgian Army will be completely rebuilt and rearmed. On the other hand it is also possible Russians will try to overthrow Saakashvili earlier using some border provocation or so. .

"Country lost soul" became (remains) "lost soul" EXACTLY because of unwise, say it very mildly, Georgian politic and porpaganda. Should they concentrate on more "peaceful" things - they could found very good soul elsewhere.

About Saakashvili ... out of the current Georgian political figures (including marginal oppostition) he is by far most comfortable president for Russians.
He is stupid. He is emotionally unstable. He is unpopular. He is tainted and compomitiert in the worlds leaders view with all kind of lie, failed invasion against S.O., "purges" against opposition, etc.

On the other hand, there is absolutely NO single politician in whole Georgia who is friendly to Russia. Many of them are even more agressive than Saakashvilli. But. Most of them are either much more "stable" and wise, or not tainted with past as Saakashvilli. They still can be accepted (contrary to Saakashvilli) by world leaders.

So in short, Russia have absoluitely no interest to overthrow Saakashvilli. To make his life as miserable as it gets - yes. Overthrow - no.

 

[Feanor]

There is a third option. Open military rebellion, and throwing Georgia into another civil war. It would destabilize the N. Caucus, but would also put an end to Western influence there. And if Russia is once again the one that steps in to end the fighting, this blocks off the energy corridor, and gives us unprecedented (since the USSR) influence in the N. Caucus.

 

[Chrom]

There is a third option. Open military rebellion, and throwing Georgia into another civil war. It would destabilize the N. Caucus, but would also put an end to Western influence there. And if Russia is once again the one that steps in to end the fighting, this blocks off the energy corridor, and gives us unprecedented (since the USSR) influence in the N. Caucus.

Civil war or not, all current political figures and forces in Georgia are strongly anti-Russian and pro-West. The nature of Georgian political culture is such what there is no long, bloody civil war possible. At most it will be short clashes, few weeks long. Most likely it will be even something like "rose revolution" and everything will be decided withing days.

And then as i said much more stable, clean, pro-USA politician will come to power... and he will be much worse for Russia than Saakashvilli.

 

[Arc Light]

The main point was, if Georgia had acted decisively and pushed forward on the 8th and 9th, they could have knocked over the troops in the area and plugged the tunnel, preventing reinfocements. After that it would simply be a matter of mopping up the mess and bracing for the political impact. Noteworthy, however is the fact that if Medvedev chose to pursue the war even after the tunnel was plugged, using Abkhazia as a staging ground, it would have been over either way.

It was impossible for Georgians to block Roki tunnel because it was guarded by Russian troops all the time. Moreover Russian reinforcements crossed this tunnel 7th August at night according to Georgian intelligence. Therefore no mopping-up operation was real because Russian Army controlled communication route from North to South Ossetia from the war outset. No way Georgian troops could break-up Russian defense in this area.

What assumption? You're repeating what I said. They did not train for it.

Your assumption was Georgia could win in Ossetia. It is not true because their army was not capable to do that due to lack of training. Correct?

Russian reinforcements on Aug. 8th were beaten back. The column from the 693rd regiment that attacked Georgian positions near the Zars road was encircled and defeated.

Nope! First battalion of 135 MRR reached Tshinvali at 8th August evening despite fierce Georgian resistance. They managed to stop Georgian encirclement plan by punching-trough it and since then Georgian troops were unable to establish permanent defensive line in the area north of Tshinvali. Besides in the early evening of 8th August Georgian troops fighting Tshinvali were pushed back by Russian air and artillery bombardment.

It wasn't until late Aug. 10th that our troops could mount a successful offensive. Again VVS performance was very poor. We didn't even establish air superiority. On Aug. 10th Georgian aircraft were still flying.

Russian air forces started bombing Georgia 8th August at 10.00 AM. Two hours earlier Russian SRBMs hit Gori military base.
I did not state Russian aviation effectivenesses was overwhelming but it is obvious Russia had five to ten times more military planes accessible over the battlefield. This fact was crucial to paralyze Georgian ground troops movement plans for instance. And Russians did not have to establish air superiority at all. This was simply granted to Russia because Georgia lacked fighter aviation. Only SAMs posed some threat to Russian planes but it was not decisive factor.

Two full regiments number a lot less then 6000 troops. They number more around 3000-4000. Btlns have 3 companies. Regiments have 3 MR bltns, and one tank btln, plus arty btln. Under 2000 total per regiment. There was no necessary infrastructure required for this. Please stop simply quoting Georgian media and do some serious research, and I mean first hand accounts and actual descriptions of the combat that took place. Fyi the tanks in the 693rd regiment were T-62s. I.e. they were even more outdated then the Georgian equipment.

OK, I still think 4000 troops was enough to derail initial Georgian assault plans because they entered South Osetia immediately as it was trained on Jule exercises. Besides you forgot that large amount of Georgian troops was engaged in city battle over Ossetian capital and nearby areas.

Do not bash me for quoting Georgian sources because Russian sources could be labeled as equally flawed.

I doubt it will change. I doubt the Georgian Army will be capable of matching our deployments ever. The 58th Army alone will for the forseeable future be able to smash anything the Georgians can put into the field.

If Georgia acquire modern Western weapon and Russian Army still fields outdated armament, it is very possible Georgia will conquer both separatist republics in quick and limited war. Later Georgia would hide behind US support to deter Russia from launching full scale invasion.

 

[Arc Light]

There is a third option. Open military rebellion, and throwing Georgia into another civil war. It would destabilize the N. Caucus, but would also put an end to Western influence there. And if Russia is once again the one that steps in to end the fighting, this blocks off the energy corridor, and gives us unprecedented (since the USSR) influence in the N. Caucus.

Possibly Russian intelligence agencies are still working on that as we could see a month ago. However I am very skeptical about their success because Saakashvili is heavily guarded by CIA.

 

[KonTim]

I've recent informations of Georgian re-arming with the help of Ukraine.It's seems that they are getting by the Ukraine T-72 and Omlot tanks and S-200 system equipment.

 

[yogi4ACF]

Georgia ever being able to beat Russia is about as likely as Mexico ever being able to beat the USA

It would never happen.