Well I aggree on most aspects but I would go forOn ADF tactical transport the Army already plans to grow its CH-47 fleet to 12 CH-47Fs by mid next decade (projects in the DCP) just to support increased demand for helicopter support. Navy plans on replacing all MRH90/Seahawk/Sesprite helicopters (~24-32) with a reconfigurable helo so all will be capable of naval support (ie transport) missions.
As to the 38 SQN role a full unit of ISR/Tactical Super King Airs will be very useful and I expect we will see them in the long term. Operationally they are ideal for non-direct action transport for SOF and the ISR role (especially COMINT) is very important until the ADF ever acquires some kind of MALE tactical UAV.
With the C-17s the C-130 can be cascaded into covering most of tactical transport mission. The only really unique tactical role of the Caribou and its replacement was deploying Army patrols across the north of Australia. Since this is mostly redundant after Defence abandoned the crazy Defence of Australia strategy the need for a C-27J (compared to a C-130) diminishes. As a medium sized air force we can’t necessarily have platforms in every size class.
The other requirement is for SOF strategic infil/exfil for direct action missions far from home and nearby support. We have an infil capability via the C-130H, parachuting and the airdrop RHIB but no exfil. This is ideal territory for the CV-22B. Such a long range, high speed VTOL capability would also provide C-SAR and other high end tactical transport capabilities.
So an ideal RAAF transport fleet of:
8 A330 MRTT (33 Sqn – strategic transport and tanking)
8 C-17A (36 Sqn – strategic and tactical transport)
16 C-130J (35, 37 Sqns - tactical transport)
8 Super King Air (32 Sqn – liaison transport and training support)
8 Super King Air (38 Sqn – tactical transport and surveillance primarily in support of SOCOMD)
8 CV-22B (20 Sqn – strategic transport and C-SAR primarily in support of SOCOMD)
6 C-17
18 C-130
8 C-27
and none King Air