Sri Lankan Civil War Nearing its End?

[dragonfire]

it will be interesting to see after Killinochi the elephant pass would be next i guess it was previously lost by the LTTE in and then regained after heavy battles in which both sides lost about 5k men, interstingly none of the LTTE fighter aircrafts were recovered from killinochi where they were rumoured to have been kept in underground hangars(which by the way they love, they have underground multi-level bunkers, hospitals and even Prabhakaran the LTTE supremo stays in an air conditioned underground bunker ) Also MANPADS will come into play now against the SLAF, in 1998 they had shot down an airliner. The LTTE has numbers which are highly motivated and they have made a tactical withdrawal from Killinochi (which had a more political and prestige role than a strategic role - its not on major highways ets which link north - south etc) now when pushed they are going to come out fighting with everything they have got and this will see unfortunately very high numbers in terms of casualities

 

[SABRE]

It seems Kilinochchi has been lost by LTTE as Lankans have reached the Elephant Pass. And as I suspected they are moving towards Jaffna. Jaffna's capture will cut off LTTE from any external help.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7810911.stm

 

[swerve]

The Sri Lankan government has controlled Jaffna since 1995, but it has been isolated from the rest of the country, except by sea & air. The movement towards Jaffna is an attempt to open a land route, via Elephant Pass (seized in the 1990s, but lost again). That would greatly ease supplying Jaffna.

 

[dragonfire]

It seems Kilinochchi has been lost by LTTE as Lankans have reached the Elephant Pass. And as I suspected they are moving towards Jaffna. Jaffna's capture will cut off LTTE from any external help.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7810911.stm

The Sri Lankan government has controlled Jaffna since 1995, but it has been isolated from the rest of the country, except by sea & air. The movement towards Jaffna is an attempt to open a land route, via Elephant Pass (seized in the 1990s, but lost again). That would greatly ease supplying Jaffna.

Well the Sri Lankans have captured the Elephant Pass and the rebels have retreated to the jungles of Mullathivu, which is also being bombarded by the SLAF as such, guess its the begining of the end for LTTE as a millitarised force, hope the conflict gets over fast with less casualities

 

[dragonfire]

Is RAW assisting the SL military ?

Maybe Maybenot - but i think a recent (a week back or so) recce mission by the ARC of the RAW has definitely got some association with the current sri lankan crisis, may be any inputs passed to the sri lankan forces have resulted in accurate bombings of the thick jungles (on ground - real time HUMINT looks like a lesser option in areas of high density of LTTE fighters - but i could be wrong )

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/RAW_goes_on_recce_mission/articleshow/3939767.cms

 

[nevidimka]

How can that be a secretive mission when its out on the internet? There's a good reason to be secretive for this mission, coz it would prove India to be taking the side of the Sri Lankan Gov against the LTTE which is fighting fo the tamil's of Sri Lanka. Something the Tamil's of Indian State Tamil Nadu would not like.
So India takes the side of the Sri Lankan Gov, but is it prepared to make sure the welfare of the tamil civilians of Sri Lanka is not abused by the Sri Lankan gov? The Lankan gov has had a bad reputation on that based on history.

If the Tamil's of Sri Lanka is re-marginalised yet again, India is gonna have a backlash back home with its own Tamil population.

Btw with all the LTTE retreating, what happened to the tamil civilains living in those pre LTTE controlled area's?

 

[Feanor]

Everything can be found on the internet these days. Whether it's true or not is another question. I've found forums claiming for certain that the Su-35BM will have plasma stealth....... :roll

On a sidenote I think India would benefit much from being the guarantor of peace in the region. Say an offer of wide autonomy to the Tamils in Sri Lanka. It could involve basing right for Indian peacekeepers (which in the long term can turn into just regular military bases). Finally stabilizing the region is beneficial both economically and militarily to India, so I think there is much to gain there.

 

[swerve]

The Indian army has very bad memories of its last intervention in Sri Lanka, in the late 1980s. Much heavier than expected casualties, & a violent backlash at home, including the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.

I do not expect India to be willing to intervene, even as peacekeepers, except to pre-empt troops of another country, which India would not like to see stationed in Sri Lanka.

 

[Firn]

It is a sad conflict between two rather nationalistic ethnic/cultural entities facing each other. The Tamil minority has been long under the boot of the majority. A far-reaching autonomy would be the best course of action, especially after a victory of the army.

 

[Feanor]

The Indian army has very bad memories of its last intervention in Sri Lanka, in the late 1980s. Much heavier than expected casualties, & a violent backlash at home, including the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.

I do not expect India to be willing to intervene, even as peacekeepers, except to pre-empt troops of another country, which India would not like to see stationed in Sri Lanka.

Ah. I did not know the history there.

 

[dragonfire]

How can that be a secretive mission when its out on the internet? There's a good reason to be secretive for this mission, coz it would prove India to be taking the side of the Sri Lankan Gov against the LTTE which is fighting fo the tamil's of Sri Lanka.

I didnot say tht it was specified that India was definetley supporting the SLA through recces, i merely sepculated tht it could be so (i did say mayb). If it was true India would not make public immediately as things stand there are 65 million tamils in India and thats a big chunk, apart from the direct politic fall out in the ruling coalition, besides the news was in the front page of the newspaper and am again making an assumption that since the state govt is not privy to the activitites of RAW (it being a federal institution) the news was leaked to the press about the take off (RAW usualy uses domestic ariports for such missions) since it was from the state capital of Tamil Nadu - Chennai

 

[dragonfire]

On a sidenote I think India would benefit much from being the guarantor of peace in the region. Say an offer of wide autonomy to the Tamils in Sri Lanka.

India had sent the IPKF (Indian Peace Keeping Force which was a misnomer beacuse the Indian and LTTE forces were fighting ) which was involved in several battles involving the army regulars, attack and lift helicopters, naval elements, marine cammandos (MCF now MARCOS operators). After losses on both sides India was asked to leave Sri Lanka. The Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was on an official visit attempted to be assaulted by a Sri Lankan Army regular during the guard of honour ceremony. Later the former prime minister was assasinated in India by the LTTE in Tamil nadu during campainging. India had then declared LTTE as a Terrorist outfit and Prabhakaran the LTTE supremo was awarded a death sentence, so his capture by Indian forces could be a big achievement

I doubt India would be willing to be directly involved in stationing any force besides which Sri Lanka might be able to do the job themselves. Norway is continously involved in the politic process of brokering peace however that was during the cease fire period.

My main concern would be that of the elimination of LTTE as a millitarised force and the majority of sinhalese repeating its atrocities on the Tamils, hope the UN intervenes and brings to halt the fights and also prevents any future genocides, crimes and ethinic cleansing situations

 

[nevidimka]

The problem of Sri Lanka is like a double edged sword for India. If it sides with the LTTE, China will have a foothold in Sri lanka through the Lanka Gov, and if it sides with the Lanka Gov, it will have a backlash with the Tamil population in its country and for associating with a regime that commited atrocities and margianalised the Sri Lanka Tamils.

But India has to solve this problem. If it aspires to be a big Power, it has 1st be able to solve the problem in its own backyard.

I believe a full autonomy is the most desirable hope for the Tamils of Sri Lanka, but would the Sri Lanka gov agree to it? I doubt it. They are arrogant enough to not want to give any autonomy and banish the LTTE for good, and then God knows what they do to the ethnic tamil's of Sri Lanka. India was weak from the beginning from putting an end from this problem which is why it is such a huge problem today. Now it cannot turn a blind eye anymore, and must pull the Sri lankan gov to force it to agree to an autonomy for the north Sri lanka and make the LTTE give up thier struggles.

 

[dragonfire]

Sri Lankan troops search for rebel leader

News Update

Sri Lankan troops search for rebel leader

www.chinaview.cn 2009-01-17 12:23:50

COLOMBO, Jan. 17 (Xinhua) -- Sri Lankan troops have launched a search to nab the Tamil Tiger rebels' leader Velupillai Prabakaran, the state radio said on Saturday.

The Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation said that the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) leader was believed to be inside a 35 meter deep bunker in the district of Mullaithivu and the troops are after him.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/17/content_10673410.htm

Wonder if Prabhakaran would try commiting suicide - he is the guy who has the final session with black tigers (at the black tiger memorial) before they leave for their respective missions (in the hundreds), apparently they are allowed to have one meal with him as a sign of respect for the mortal mission (sucide missions) they undertake

Underground bunkers - Saddam, Hitler, Prabhkaran .. - i doubt if india would get their hands on him even if he is captured alive by the SLA

 

[Feanor]

http://vz.ru/politics/2009/1/23/249627.html

Ukraine is allegedly exporting weapons to the Tamil Tigers, including instructors. It's unclear whether this is official export, or contraband. The article cites a Tamil Tiger commander on it.

Those who are more intune with the events of the war, could you possibly comment on how credible this is?

 

[kato]

Not that incredible. LTTE - by rumours - supposedly supplies itself through arms dealers in Ukraine, Kyrgyzistan, Bulgaria and Slovakia. Small arms through Lebanon, Cyprus, Hong Kong and Singapore.

See also e.g. http://www.lankanewspapers.com/news/2008/12/37064_space.html

Ukrainian mercenaries (pilots) flew strikes for the Sri Lankan government in 2007 supposedly btw.

 

[dragonfire]

http://vz.ru/politics/2009/1/23/249627.html

Ukraine is allegedly exporting weapons to the Tamil Tigers, including instructors. It's unclear whether this is official export, or contraband. The article cites a Tamil Tiger commander on it.

Those who are more intune with the events of the war, could you possibly comment on how credible this is?

Again link is in russian Feanor, irrespective of which doesnt the Sri Lankan Millitary forces have a defense procurement relationship with Ukranie as such which could immediately be violated if they supplied stuff to the rebels as well. Didnt SL procure some fighter from Ukraine like Mig-21s

The rebels are on their last verge/ foot as such however the numbers quoted by General Fonseka of SLA of only 1000 LTTE fighters left is probably grossly underestimated or sent out to motivate the SLA troops, however wht is interesting is tht though the SLA have been able to capture 6 air fields of the LTTE they have not been able to locate any of the Zlin-Z-143 aircraft operated by the LTTE, also now on the complete back foot they are using various disimillar tactics like destroying dams to stall advancing troops etc

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/01/200912524210205547.html

 

[SABRE]

Sri Lankan army has entered the last LTTE strong hold.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7849684.stm

I wonder why they still haven't found the top LTTE personnel?

 

[dragonfire]

Sri Lankan army has entered the last LTTE strong hold.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7849684.stm

I wonder why they still haven't found the top LTTE personnel?

Mullativu had the last uncaptured air field of the LTTE and since the capture of the town there has been no comment on the missing aircraft, one can deduce tht the aircraft have not yet been located and tht along with the leadership they r missing, could be tht they were flown out to safer havens

 

[SABRE]

This is interesting. LTTE had a submarine.

http://geo.tv/1-29-2009/33830.htm