Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[nevidimka]

Funny how you put the situation in Ukraine to be so grim Feanor, coz I remember reading that b4 Yushenko came to power, the Ukraine's economy was actually improving and registering growth. But Yushenko managed to put the economy on a downhill path, and the current Economic crisis is not helping it as well.

IMO RUssia does not want and can ill afford a war with Ukraine at this point of time. Their economy is in a downhill, and another war will certainly put that downhill move at an accelerated phase. Plus Russia would be certainly stripped from the OIL revenue for extended periods of war and they cant afford it. Not until the southstream is built I believe.

It it it doesnt matter if Ukraine has T 64 or not, If Russia faced losses in georgia, it will certainly face alot more in Ukraine. And I certainly belive those soviet era SAM's is well capable of shooting down Russian air force planes as they themselves are not fully upgraded.

It would be wiser for Russia to wait for the imminent colapse of Yushenko's gov and influence it to move to a pro russian gov. I'm curious, why is it the Ukrainian people is still not overwhelmingly against Yushenko, with the mess he has put Ukraine in and the corruption he has done? I believe when Yushenko came to power, there were overwhelming parades supporting his nomination. Now they are all silent? Does Russia not provide money for those occasions like the CIA does?

 

[kato]

On European terms, the Ukrainian economy is still down in the dumps - no matter whether going up- or downwards. The per capita GDP as well as foreign direct investment is roughly equivalent to those of the poorer (!) Balkan states - Bosnia, Macedonia, Albania. Within Europe, you pretty much can't get lower - excluding Moldavia. Even the per capita GDP of Belarus, or - as the poorest in the EU - Bulgaria and Romania is levels above that! About the only good thing for Ukraine is that the government debt is relatively low.

I don't know what kind of flight hours the Ukranian AF gets, but I suspect the average numbers will be horrifying.

Especially per aircraft, probably abysmal. I doubt they even have the money to check the entire nominal fleet for functionality, other than those they retire from the nominal fleet to sell them. I'd say perhaps two or three squadrons of active forces - and even those with minimal regular training for the pilots.

 

[eckherl]

Do you have a source? As far as I know the KMZ has not engaged in serial production of MBTs and has not been engaged in it since the early 90's. Given the overall poor economic situation, and lack of exports in the country, that would put them in a state of complete disrepair. I have not heard of a Ukranian tank deal for export outside of regular shipments of old Soviet T-72's.

Finally regardless of what they still have left in inventory, the armed forces are riding around in T-64's. I've also looked through their MoD page a little while ago and found that all their live firing exercises that they mention on there, are on the btln and company lvl, and involve BMP-2, and T-64. No mention of T-72, or T-80, much less T-84. The biggest piece of news I did find there was thay over two years they modernized single tank btln to T-64BM.

Okay, and what does this have to do with anything that I posted, did I say KMZ is producing tanks on a massive scale, they are working on T-64 Bulat upgrades regardless of the fact that they have been turning them out with a very slow process, they have also built 8 T-84s for research and training purposes with the first 10 production vehicles being delivered this year if they do not change their minds which is highly likely due to past political performance when it comes to their defense budget. Yes, training on a massive scale for their armed forces is rather dismal but so is Russia`s correct. Tanks and bimps that they still have still in inventory consist of the following as of 2007:

2,200 T-64 series
1,200 T-72 series
270 T-80 series, (2003 the U.S purchased 4 of those at T-80U series level)
8 T-84, (2005 a U.S defense contractor purchased 2 of these)
1,008 BMP 1
1,400 BMP 2

Granted the majority of these vehicles are sitting in storage as old cold war stocks, but they are not that bad in shape and if funds are made available they can be refurbished and upgraded. They do not want the T-72, they are for sale to anyone willing to pay for them. They should also have give or take 150 T-55s sold to the highest bidder. My post still stands that they can design, research and build a tank without relying on Russian components and they are doing it, and in some cases better. Now what does this really mean if faced with a armed confrontation with Russia, nothing at all, it would not matter if they had 1,000 Oplots and the rest of their equipment was in prestine condition, it would take Russia 72 hours to have complete control of the situation, it would just be more costly to them in loss of manpower.

 

[nevidimka]

Ukraine is a large country. What maks you think Russia would be able to have the country under control in 3 days? That is too short a time, and I dont belive its possible unless there is a massive support to the Russian invading Army from their Ukrainian counterparts.
As far as I can see, there are many nationalistic Ukrainian generals who does not like that, and they would command their forces to fight off the Russians.

But if a war is gonna happen, Russia should seriously use psychological warfare, in trying to convince the Ukrainians to join them instead of fighting them, coz any war is gonna look like a civil war.

Btw whats with US buying those T 80's? evaluating T 90's threat?

 

[Feanor]

Okay, and what does this have to do with anything that I posted, did I say KMZ is producing tanks on a massive scale, they are working on T-64 Bulat upgrades regardless of the fact that they have been turning them out with a very slow process, they have also built 8 T-84s for research and training purposes with the first 10 production vehicles being delivered this year if they do not change their minds which is highly likely due to past political performance when it comes to their defense budget.

There were already reports that they had to cut the budget for this year. Last year they had to spend some of the procurement money on food, because the food money mysteriously disappeared.

Yes, training on a massive scale for their armed forces is rather dismal but so is Russia`s correct.

The difference is night and day. Russia has systematically held multiple regimental and division level exercises. The largest of these, Stability-2008, involved all of the major commands, and even pulling units out of storage bases. At the very least the Russian Army will be able to coordinate it's actions on the strategic level (which was demonstrated in the Georgian conflict). The Ukranians (like the Georgians) will run into serious problems with this.

Tanks and bimps that they still have still in inventory consist of the following as of 2007:

2,200 T-64 series
1,200 T-72 series
270 T-80 series, (2003 the U.S purchased 4 of those at T-80U series level)
8 T-84, (2005 a U.S defense contractor purchased 2 of these)
1,008 BMP 1
1,400 BMP 2

Do you have a source? I'm not asking because I don't trust your numbers, but because I'm interested in where and how you always seem to have them. Now in the actual armed forces, the only thing there are T-64 and T-64B, with a single bltn of T-64BM. Which means that in a war that's all that will be available. I doubt there is a mechanism for turning many of those additional inventory into combat units in a matter of 1-2 days.

Granted the majority of these vehicles are sitting in storage as old cold war stocks, but they are not that bad in shape and if funds are made available they can be refurbished and upgraded. They do not want the T-72, they are for sale to anyone willing to pay for them. They should also have give or take 150 T-55s sold to the highest bidder. My post still stands that they can design, research and build a tank without relying on Russian components and they are doing it, and in some cases better. Now what does this really mean if faced with a armed confrontation with Russia, nothing at all, it would not matter if they had 1,000 Oplots and the rest of their equipment was in prestine condition, it would take Russia 72 hours to have complete control of the situation, it would just be more costly to them in loss of manpower.

They can design a tank, but I don't think they can produce it which is the real point. You said they could independently produce gun tubes. I'm asking how you know that? I'm assuming when you said produce, you meant serial production, not the 8 prototypes.

The relevance of this is to the weapons market. How likely is the KMZ to win any export orders if it's production facilities have been rotting for over a decade, without any major orders?

Ukraine is a large country. What maks you think Russia would be able to have the country under control in 3 days? That is too short a time, and I dont belive its possible unless there is a massive support to the Russian invading Army from their Ukrainian counterparts.
As far as I can see, there are many nationalistic Ukrainian generals who does not like that, and they would command their forces to fight off the Russians.

Would those (unpaid, poorly fed, poorly housed, and thoroughly abused by their government) forces carry out the order to fight?

 

[SkolZkiy]

This discussion has no sense because if Ru invade Ukr then MOST of Ukr armed forces would turn to Ru side. more then this - Ru do not need western part of Ukr - only Eastern part and Crimea that's all. These are industrial areas of Ukr and the rest part is useless if we are talking economically.

 

[eckherl]

Ukraine is a large country. What maks you think Russia would be able to have the country under control in 3 days? That is too short a time, and I dont belive its possible unless there is a massive support to the Russian invading Army from their Ukrainian counterparts.
As far as I can see, there are many nationalistic Ukrainian generals who does not like that, and they would command their forces to fight off the Russians.

But if a war is gonna happen, Russia should seriously use psychological warfare, in trying to convince the Ukrainians to join them instead of fighting them, coz any war is gonna look like a civil war.

Btw whats with US buying those T 80's? evaluating T 90's threat?

Russians will have total air, land and communications dominance during that time frame, everything else would be mop up operations for the so called die hards, Russia is not stupid, they are fully aware of what Ukraine has in equipment assets and will hit them so hard with such a lopsided ratio that it will be too over whelming for the Ukrainians. But all this is nothing but wishful thinking on everyones part, there is no need for Russia to use force, Ukraine will be back under their influence due to political reasons within that country.

 

[eckherl]

There were already reports that they had to cut the budget for this year. Last year they had to spend some of the procurement money on food, because the food money mysteriously disappeared.



The difference is night and day. Russia has systematically held multiple regimental and division level exercises. The largest of these, Stability-2008, involved all of the major commands, and even pulling units out of storage bases. At the very least the Russian Army will be able to coordinate it's actions on the strategic level (which was demonstrated in the Georgian conflict). The Ukranians (like the Georgians) will run into serious problems with this.



Do you have a source? I'm not asking because I don't trust your numbers, but because I'm interested in where and how you always seem to have them. Now in the actual armed forces, the only thing there are T-64 and T-64B, with a single bltn of T-64BM. Which means that in a war that's all that will be available. I doubt there is a mechanism for turning many of those additional inventory into combat units in a matter of 1-2 days.



They can design a tank, but I don't think they can produce it which is the real point. You said they could independently produce gun tubes. I'm asking how you know that? I'm assuming when you said produce, you meant serial production, not the 8 prototypes.

The relevance of this is to the weapons market. How likely is the KMZ to win any export orders if it's production facilities have been rotting for over a decade, without any major orders?



Would those (unpaid, poorly fed, poorly housed, and thoroughly abused by their government) forces carry out the order to fight?

KMBD is fully capable of making vehicles, it just like you have stated, their is no major orders thus no money, the 10 Oplots are supposed to be handed over later this year so serial production will start even though at a snails pace, they are doing quite well selling tank components at the current time to countries such as China, Pakistan and Iraq to just name a few, there is speculation that they even worked with China on a 140 mm tank gun that can be housed in T-72 and T-80 series vehicles, including auto loader. name of maingun is called Bagira. I should also add that the Ukrainian KBA3 125mm is rated even or better than anything that the Russians have produced, alot of sales seem to support this claim. So they are keeping their defense industry infrastructure at least from becoming bankrupt, how long will this last cannot not be answered at the current time.

A couple of big exercises, I know of one that caught everyones attention and this was pretty much a combined arms exercise as stated by you, most NATO countries military units average at least up to quarter of the year out in the field conducting exercises be it unit manuevers or live fire exercises, this is not the case for the Russians, it never has been.

My numbers come from different U.S government defense firms and in some cases defense contractors.

 

[Feanor]

Interesting. So do you think the KMZ will be able to launch serial production of vehicles if it receives the orders?

 

[nevidimka]

Russians will have total air, land and communications dominance during that time frame, everything else would be mop up operations for the so called die hards, Russia is not stupid, they are fully aware of what Ukraine has in equipment assets and will hit them so hard with such a lopsided ratio that it will be too over whelming for the Ukrainians. But all this is nothing but wishful thinking on everyones part, there is no need for Russia to use force, Ukraine will be back under their influence due to political reasons within that country.

What are the Ukrainian Air force numbers? I think they have a sizeable number of flankers, but I'm unsure if they are equipped with Active BVRAAM's of any kind.

Regarding Ukrainian's being underpaid, not properly housed etc2, I believe in a war the nationalistic pride will ensure that the majority Ukrainian nationality stage a fight against opposition by Russia. Russian Ukrainian though may welcome russian troops with open arms.

 

[Firn]

Regarding Ukrainian's being underpaid, not properly housed etc2, I believe in a war the nationalistic pride will ensure that the majority Ukrainian nationality stage a fight against opposition by Russia. Russian Ukrainian though may welcome russian troops with open arms.

History has shown us that we can not know beforehand what war brings. It is however wise to assume also the worst, a terrible bloodshet during and perhaps after major combat operations.

 

[Feanor]

What are the Ukrainian Air force numbers? I think they have a sizeable number of flankers, but I'm unsure if they are equipped with Active BVRAAM's of any kind.

How about, are those Flankers operational?

Regarding Ukrainian's being underpaid, not properly housed etc2, I believe in a war the nationalistic pride will ensure that the majority Ukrainian nationality stage a fight against opposition by Russia. Russian Ukrainian though may welcome russian troops with open arms.

Ukranian nationality, but I'll go ahead and risk sounding like a Russian chauvinist, and say that there isn't much of one at this point, outside of Western Ukraine. I seriously doubt that the Ukranian Army will be willing to put up a fight. The Georgian Army was fanatically anti-Russian. That didn't stop them from running as soon as things got unpleasant.

 

[Yasin20]

ukrain dos have its own air force too u know only reason why gorgia lost becouse they never had any fighter jets

 

[lobbie111]

ukrain dos have its own air force too u know only reason why gorgia lost becouse they never had any fighter jets

What??? The reason why georgia lost is it couldn't sustain itself when half of its military infrastructure was taken almost overnight...

Ukraine has enough guns per person to put up a substantial fight, but Russia knows it doesn't have to fight them just build pipelines around Ukraine, therefore war will not happen.

 

[John Sansom]

Georgia lost because it was just plain overwhelmed....and the lack of any kind of effective airforce was just one of many factors. Not being more than marginally knowledgeable on the Ukraine's military capabilities, I rather suspect that pretty much the same picture would hold.

This is hardly a situation to be devoutly wished for, however, and one would hope that currently developing agreements and common sense would put paid to any considerations of a military nature.

 

[lobbie111]

Oh I wasn't going on their military capabilities, I was going off the fact that guns outnumber Ukrainians 3:1

 

[Feanor]

Georgian lost because they didn't have any coordination of the armed forces beyond the battallion level. No large scale regular exercises involving multiple brigades. Little experience, as many of the brigades are only recently formed. Note that the iirc 4th Infantry Brigade, which had been deployed to Iraq as a brigade, was the only one able to effectively organize a second attempt to re-capture Tskhinvali after the Georgians initially panicked and retreated.

The Ukranian military will face the same problem. As far as I can tell, regimental and division level exercises are extremely rare. Mutli-division exercises don't happen at all. That means that regardless of their airforce, or their guns, they have no chance.

 

[eckherl]

Interesting. So do you think the KMZ will be able to launch serial production of vehicles if it receives the orders?

Not on a mass scale, not enough of a defense budget with in their own military, and no other country will purchase on a mass scale due to the political concerns with in Ukraine, too risky of a gamble.

 

[eckherl]

What are the Ukrainian Air force numbers? I think they have a sizeable number of flankers, but I'm unsure if they are equipped with Active BVRAAM's of any kind.

Regarding Ukrainian's being underpaid, not properly housed etc2, I believe in a war the nationalistic pride will ensure that the majority Ukrainian nationality stage a fight against opposition by Russia. Russian Ukrainian though may welcome russian troops with open arms.

They have over 850 fixed wing aircraft in their inventory, what they are I do not know but some of the aircraft buffs that frequent this site should have a close idea on what types, I should add that they also have 185 helicopters.

 

[ROCK45]

Ukrainian air force

I have questions about their air force like how many training hours do pilots get and conditions of aircraft? There used to be a Ukraine Air Force forum which might be helpful not sure if it still on the net anymore.

Wonder why none of those Fulcrums ever made it to market?

Just a few things I found :

Ukraine Armed Forces Participation in International Military Exercises
http://www.mil.gov.ua/index.php?part=international_exercises&lang=en

USAFE, Ukrainian air force continue spirit of cooperation

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2007/01/mil-070130-afpn04.htm

Air Force
Rough numbers from
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/vps-equipment.htm

Mig-29 (217)
Su-27 (60)