Iraqi Air Force and Air Defense

[anan]

I would like to start a thread on the Iraqi Air Force (IqAF) and Air Defense.

Some background:
number of aircraft in the IqAF:
end 2007: 52
end 2008: 85
end 2009: 119
Source: Page 50/51 on the document and Page 60/61 in the PDF in the congressional Quarterly 9010 Report published today
IqAF will number 7,000 and include 12 air bases by 2010. A good summary of the IqAF OOB is:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/multimedia/OOBpage8-AF&Naval.pdf
summary of equipment is:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/multimedia/OOBpage15-Equipment.pdf

Vice Chief of Staff of the Iraqi Joint Forces 4 Star General Nasier Abadi discussed planned IqAF procurement on 11.02.08.
In 2011, the IqAF is expected to take delivery of 108 Aircraft:
- 36 F16 fighters
- 24 AT-6B trainers
- 24 EC-635 Utility/Attack Helos
- 24 Bell-407 Armed Recon Helos
Another 102 Aircraft are planned to be purchased in 2012, although there is a chance of delaying deliveries because of the drop in oil prices from $149/barrel to $37/barrel.
The Iraqis would probably like to purchase more F16s, but the current low oil prices make additional F16s difficult to afford. As a result, the IqAF is considering cheaper light attack/fighter aircraft including the F/A 50 Korean light attack combat aircraft.

Iraq's greatest procurement priorities at present are aircraft, and air defense. Possibly artillery too (although it is possible the Iraqi Army has ordered some artillery from non US suppliers with OPSEC.) Aviation/Air defense is the biggest obstacle to ISF (Iraqi Security Force) intermediate run self reliance; a high priority for most of the major Iraqi political parties that are likely to perform well in this year's elections.

Please forgive me for the excessive lenght of the above IqAF background:

I would be very interested in everyone's perspectives on what additional aircraft and air defense systems the Iraqi MoD (Ministry of Defense) will consider for delivery from 2012 and beyond. The Iraqi MoD secretary just lead a large delegation to South Korea to discuss weapons procurement . . . almost certainly focusing on Air Defense/Aircraft, and possibly focusing on artillery. (Korea won't be able to sell used tanks as quickly as Iraq is planning to buy them. Procurement of used K200 or M113 is also unlikely given the other armored vehicles in the IA's procurement backlog. This leaves the F/A 50, maybe the T 50 although less likely, air defense and artillery as the main platforms the Iraqi MoD is considering buying from Korea. )

Looking forward to many enlightening responses.

 

[Feanor]

Late model F-16's are a good choice. Fairly inexpensive, shared logistics with the USAF (making interoperability much easier). I wonder though, if it may ever occur that spares or weapons are denied to Iraq for political reasons (á la Venezuela, or Indonesia). That might be something to keep in mind.

 

[anan]

What is the life cycle cost of the F16 block 60 (which I think you are talking about)?

Notice the severe budget deficit of Iraq. Using the 9010 report, and assuming the price of oil stays at $37 (current spot price), Iraqi annual revenue will be $26 billion.

Annual expenditure will be $67 billion (already cut from the previously planned $78.4 billion)
http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/9010_Report_to_Congress_Dec_08.pdf
In the coming years, planned CAPEX and defense procurement will put significant upward pressure on government spending. The current Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police budgets are unsustainable according to the 9010 report.

With such a huge budget deficit (expenditure = 2.5 times revenue), I don't see how Iraq can afford more block 60 (beyond the 36 they have already ordered) unless oil prices recover.

 

[Feanor]

Oil prices have recovered a little bit. In the long term they will definetly rise again. The question is where Iraq will get the money in the meanwhile.

 

[ASFC]

As a result, the IqAF is considering cheaper light attack/fighter aircraft including the F/A 50 Korean light attack combat aircraft.

Again, as I pointed out in the other thread, is this for definite, with sources for a media reports and annoucements from the respective Govts, or just your considered opinion on what the IqAF might buy??

 

[anan]

ASFC, there is sourcing that the Iraqi MoD is discussing significant procurement from South Korea. The Iraqi MoD could only be considering Air, Air Defense or Artillery. It is possible as you imply that the MoD is interested in South Korea's Air Defense systems or artillery rather than the F/A 50. That is possible.

From MoD/MNF-I briefings the Iraqis are buying "fighters" in addition to 36 F16s and 24 AT-6B trainers. The Iraqis have not specified what "fighters" they are considering. Any thoughts on what "fighters" (or light combat fixed wing) might be optimal for Iraq?

The MoD hasn't begun air defense procurement yet. What systems should they consider. Are the South Korean air defense systems a good option.

On oil:
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Oil prices are below $37/barrel. We are in the middle of the greatest financial crisis since 1931. For all our sakes I hope the global financial crisis eases up. If it doesn't commodity prices could drop significantly further from currently low levels.

This is off topic, but today there are runs on Citigroup, Bank of America and Barclays--three of the world's largest financial institutions. It is very scary.

 

[ASFC]

ASFC, there is sourcing that the Iraqi MoD is discussing significant procurement from South Korea. The Iraqi MoD could only be considering Air, Air Defense or Artillery. It is possible as you imply that the MoD is interested in South Korea's Air Defense systems or artillery rather than the F/A 50. That is possible.

From MoD/MNF-I briefings the Iraqis are buying "fighters" in addition to 36 F16s and 24 AT-6B trainers. The Iraqis have not specified what "fighters" they are considering. Any thoughts on what "fighters" (or light combat fixed wing) might be optimal for Iraq?

The MoD hasn't begun air defense procurement yet. What systems should they consider. Are the South Korean air defense systems a good option.

So what you are syaing is that they are not defintely going for the F/A-50, that is all I wanted to know. Thanks.

 

[anan]

Let me quote from jack winters in the comment section of this article:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/01/iraqi_security_force_24.php

"More news on Iraq's Defense minister visit to South Korea check out these two links

http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_Po_detail.htm?No=60587

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/ea_skorea0044_01_15.asp

Three important points came out

1. Iraqi officials want to buy military equipment from South Korea; this is not a diplomatic visit.

2. Iraqi officials tested and are satisfied with the T-50 Jet

3. Iraq wants to co-produce equipment with South Korea


What do you think DJ?

Posted by jack winters at January 15, 2009 7:27 PM ET:

http://www.koreancenter.or.kr/news/news_foreign_view.aspx?menu_code=02001000&news_id=AEN20090115000100315"​

Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi: ""The T-50 proved to us that South Korea has modern technology of an international standard," he said in Arabic, translated by Yonhap News Agency. "But we still need to review more" whether Iraq wants to introduce South Korea's first indigenous trainer aircraft to help expand its nascent air force, al-Obeidi said."

 

[anan]

As I do the numbers, at $35/barrel oil and a 9% discount factor (since Iraqi oil is higher quality than most), Iraq's annual revenue in 2009 will be about $26 billion. By comparison, the Iraqi government budgeted $72 billion in spending in 2008, and budgeted $78.4 billion in spending in 2009 before cutting spending for this year to $67 billion. As per the 9010 Report, Iraq cannot afford this year's ministry of defense and ministry of interior budgets without a substantial additional appropriation by parliament and the Ministry of Finance. This is before even considering the T 50 or F/A 50. How can Iraq afford this plane?

I think the Iraqis want the bird but can't afford it. Any other thoughts?

 

[ASFC]

I think the point is that they are interested in ROK equipment and technology and the T-50 has been used as an example of how modern the equipment is, but are unwilling to commit to anything (due to budget problems as you point out). There isn't much to speculate on in any of the articles, other than general interest in the equipment.

The question that needs to be asked here is does Iraq need the F/A-50 or T-50?

Or from another perspective, how is Iraq organising any future Air Force training? Would Iraqi Pilots go straight from the T-6A/AT-6B to the F-16? How does the F/A-50 fit in? Iraq already has a few light COIN aircraft and has expressed an interest in buying the AT-6B through FMS, is there a need for more lighter fighters beyond the F-16/AT-6B fleet? Can they afford to have multiple Fighter/COIN fleets? Is the money better spent on more F-16s given Iraqs eastern neighbour?

 

[anan]

Good questions ASFC. Let me first lay out some more daa on the IqAF (from the 9010 report page 58/68):
The first 77 Aircraft that were operational consisted of
- 31 fixed-wing aircraft
- 3 C-130E
- 3 King Air 350 ISR
- 1 King Air LTA
- 8 C-172 Cessna
- 5 TC-208 Caravan
- 3 ISR
- 8 CH-2000
Caravans and 8 CH-2000).
- 46 rotary-wing aircraft
-15 Mi-17
-16 UH-1 Huey II
-5 Bell Jet Ranger
-10 OH-58C

8 more aircraft joined the IqAF later in 2008 for a total of 85 aircraft at the end of 2008. The IqAF will number 119 aircraft by the end of 2009.

Now regarding your questions:
-Can a pilot learn how to fly an F 16 by flying one of Iraq's 24 ordered AT-6B trainers? Will Iraq have to purchase a few T 50s to train their F 16 pilots on?
-If Iraq can get by without the T 50s, can Iraq really afford to buy more than 36 F 16s, which would likely be their preference? Will Iraq substitute one or two squadrons of F/A 50s instead of buying additional F16s?
-Can Iraq buy one squadron of 18 F/A 50s and hold off on any purchases beyond what has already been ordered (108 aircraft are scheduled for delivery in 2011.) Iraq could wait for higher oil prices before ordering more F16s or F/A 50s. Is 36 F16s +18 F/A 50s + 24 AT-6B trainers + 24 EC-635 Utility/Attack Helos + 24 Bell-407 Armed Recon Helos + the 119 aircraft the IqAF will have by the end of 2009 + planned procurement for 2010 sufficient intermediate term air power for Iraq?

 

[harryriedl]

Good questions ASFC. Let me first lay out some more daa on the IqAF (from the 9010 report page 58/68):
The first 77 Aircraft that were operational consisted of
- 31 fixed-wing aircraft
- 3 C-130E
- 3 King Air 350 ISR
- 1 King Air LTA
- 8 C-172 Cessna
- 5 TC-208 Caravan
- 3 ISR
- 8 CH-2000
Caravans and 8 CH-2000).
- 46 rotary-wing aircraft
-15 Mi-17
-16 UH-1 Huey II
-5 Bell Jet Ranger
-10 OH-58C

8 more aircraft joined the IqAF later in 2008 for a total of 85 aircraft at the end of 2008. The IqAF will number 119 aircraft by the end of 2009.

Now regarding your questions:
-Can a pilot learn how to fly an F 16 by flying one of Iraq's 24 ordered AT-6B trainers? Will Iraq have to purchase a few T 50s to train their F 16 pilots on?
-If Iraq can get by without the T 50s, can Iraq really afford to buy more than 36 F 16s, which would likely be their preference? Will Iraq substitute one or two squadrons of F/A 50s instead of buying additional F16s?
-Can Iraq buy one squadron of 18 F/A 50s and hold off on any purchases beyond what has already been ordered (108 aircraft are scheduled for delivery in 2011.) Iraq could wait for higher oil prices before ordering more F16s or F/A 50s. Is 36 F16s +18 F/A 50s + 24 AT-6B trainers + 24 EC-635 Utility/Attack Helos + 24 Bell-407 Armed Recon Helos + the 119 aircraft the IqAF will have by the end of 2009 + planned procurement for 2010 sufficient intermediate term air power for Iraq?

Interesting topic apart from Internal issues who are Iraqi air forces enemies, Iran, Syria. Iran has a sizable fleet of aircraft but allmost all age from 1970's tech (I know they have there homemade F-5 and have upgraded the fighter fleet sporadically). I believe 36 F16 should offer a suitable deterrent especially backed up by the advanced King Air ISR the F/A 50 would be interesting especially to see how there performance mesues up to an F16. the helo's and the trainers all seem very good buy's with the exception of the bell 407 as they have been plagued with problem's.
The only other Item I can see the Iraqis using would be an MI 24 to act as the heavy hitters for the ARH in both an insurgency and an attack

 

[OPSSG]

Late model F-16's are a good choice. Fairly inexpensive, shared logistics with the USAF (making interoperability much easier). I wonder though, if it may ever occur that spares or weapons are denied to Iraq for political reasons (á la Venezuela, or Indonesia). That might be something to keep in mind.

Forgive me for disagreeing in relation to Indonesia.

IMHO, the issue is more complex. Indonesia has F-5Es, F-16A/Bs (which replaced their MiG-21s) and Su-30MKs. Why is it that they can operate their older F-5E squadron (and at the same time have difficulty operating their block 15 F-16s delivered in 1989)? Why was flying Indonesia's western fighter planes never a real problem under President Suharto's rule until 1999 (over the East Timor issues)?

Why are their F-16s still not flying even after the ban was lifted in late 2005 and could only dispatch a single F-16 for a territory dispute? Further, why is Indonesia reportedly considering block-52 F-16s again under their procurement plan for 2010-2014?

Please tell me again if Indonesia had purchased the required weapons for their Russian aircraft and explain why there are reported problems with their relatively new purchases (and lack of spare parts or avionics problems is always an excuse)? Keeping in mind that Indonesia has some 'capability' to 'manufacture' other aircraft types?

Are their problems related to a lack of technical expertise, an embargo or a lack of planning (in stocking parts and reliance on outside help for engineering support)?

Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi: ""The T-50 proved to us that South Korea has modern technology of an international standard," he said in Arabic, translated by Yonhap News Agency. "But we still need to review more" whether Iraq wants to introduce South Korea's first indigenous trainer aircraft to help expand its nascent air force, al-Obeidi said."

Yes, the T-50 or F/A-50 is an excellent advanced trainer (F-16 like and co-developed with LM) and when armed can serve as in a ground attack role. So a good choice if Iraq can afford it, as it is shiny, new and has a larger up-front cost.

Please bear in mind that almost any cheaper 2nd hand 2 seater jet aircraft with docile handling characteristics can serve as an advanced jet trainer. It is just a question of the degree of suitability.

If Iraq is not too proud, the government can always seek help from richer Arab countries to buy their 2nd hand stuff, as trainers, so as to build up their capabilities slowly.

I think the Iraqis want the bird but can't afford it. Any other thoughts?

Free trip to Korean and good shopping?

 

[Feanor]

Forgive me for disagreeing in relation to Indonesia.

IMHO, the issue is more complex. Indonesia has F-5Es, F-16A/Bs (which replaced their MiG-21s) and Su-30MKs. Why is it that can they operate their older F-5E squadron (and at the same time have difficulty operating their block 15 F-16s delivered in 1989)? Why was flying Indonesia's western fighter planes never a real problem under President Suharto's rule until 1999 (over the East Timor issues)?

F-5 spares are a lot easier to reverse engineer and manufacture. Iran is a good example. If anything, enough of them are floating around in various third world countries, for it to be available on the black market. I don't know the details of the F-16 problems, so this is just my speculation, but there was a ban due to the East Timor conflict. Indonesia probably had a batch of spare parts still left that kept the planes operational for some time. Once they ran out, the planes became inoperable.

Why are their F-16s still not flying even after the ban was lifted in late 2005 and could only dispatch a single F-16 for a territory dispute? Further, why is Indonesia reportedly considering block-52 F-16s again under their procurement plan for 2010-2014?

I think it wasn't flying because they didn't purchase any more spare parts for it...

Please tell me again if Indonesia had purchased the required weapons for their Russian aircraft and explain why there are reported problems with their relatively new purchases (and lack of spare parts always an excuse)? Keeping in mind that Indonesia has some 'capability' to 'manufacture' other aircraft types?

I don't know if they purchased the weapons they need. I know they recently took delivery of 3 more Su-30MK fighters.

Are their problems related to a lack of technical expertise, an embargo or a lack of planning (in stocking parts and reliance on outside help for engineering support)?

I suspect it's all 3, with a little bit of mismanagement of government funds, and general lack of funds mixed in. In any event the embargo certainly dealt a major blow from what I know. That was my whole point.

 

[OPSSG]

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I have a slightly different and Singaporean perspective.

I suspect it's all 3, with a little bit of mismanagement of government funds, and general lack of funds mixed in. In any event the embargo certainly dealt a major blow from what I know. That was my whole point.

What I say here is speculative but you decide if it makes sense.

IMO Indonesia could have been less affected by a US embargo!

Traditionally, whatever Suharto asked from Singapore, our government will give it to him (and we also deferred to Indonesia's leadership in ASEAN). They say jump, we say how high (but the key is that they did not ask for too much). If they wanted to borrow NVG or UAVs (to suppress their internal conflicts), we will lend it to them. If he wanted weapons, these would be sold at friendship prices or given to the TNI. If they need engineering support for their fighters (and we have no problems keeping our F-5s & F-16s flying) Singapore would have provided it in the past (on the idea that in general they do not harm our interests).

That relationship changed when Suharto fell from power. We become the little red dot to be kicked around for political expediency. They also decided to renegotiate all prior agreements (on the basis that Singapore got more out of it) and sought ways to make life difficult - like cutting off the sale and supply of sand and granite to Singapore and even arresting a Singaporean for alleged illegal acts in 2007. The relationship thus became conditional even though we stood down a portion of our defence to help Indonesia after the 24 Dec 2004 Tsunami. Everything (though only relevant equipment was selected) and everyone on alert during X'mas (RSN & RSAF troop lift and even an army division HQ, deployed, as a task force) was activated to help them and we deployed our first wave in 5 days not knowing if the insurgency was active after the Tsunami and we did not know if delivering the aid through TNI would make us legitimate targets for the rebels.

In return for the bad treatment, Singapore is also renegotiating our terms of engagement with the TNI, that is why I provided a link of the Indonesians seeking help from Turkey (but not getting it). Thanks to a passage of time (and their inability to keep planes flying) Indonesia is rediscovering the benefits of working with Singapore again and we use mostly western made equipment.

In contrast to our relationship with Indonesia, Singapore donated/transferred 3 F-16As and 4 F-16Bs (all Block 15) to Thailand in 2005 (as a reward for allowing us to use their airbase and other training arrangements). I am not saying that we could have donated the F-16s to Indonesia with the embargo in place, at the relevant time, but it signals our ability to give to friends. Hmm... we have 6 more retired/unused missile gunboats (Anyone else want to be our friends?)

Note: Why give away F-16A/Bs to the Thai military when we still use F-5s? It is a diplomatic Thai-Singapore signal that too many observers fail to see. And how did the Thai navy reward Singapore Inc. recently (before the military government stepped down)?

My point is embargo or not, if Indonesia did not harm Singapore's interests, their planes will still fly (if they asked). That is why I kept pointing out that there is lots of non-US expertise and sub-systems available for the F-16 platform. It is a safe choice for Iraqi (they just have to cultivate other F-16 operators as friends).

In relation to the Iraqi air force, the Iraqis have to decide who their friends would be in the long term and choose their platform accordingly. I recommend that they use what their advisors recommend (currently the Americans) and focus on the basics first. The Indonesian story tells us to cultivate and choose friends carefully.

 

[Feanor]

Under what conditions would Iraq fall out of favor with the USA? The most likely one I can see is a religious anti-Western government. In that scenario how many other countries with F-16 tech. are willing to help Iraq?

However you do have a valid point in that the maintenance is not too complex to be completely inaccessible. I suspect it would depend on the specific situation.

 

[macman]

Suspect the most likely scenario for a blockade is in simply getting closer to Iran once the American's are gone, which is a very likely scenario...

As for looking to build up the airforce over the next 5 years or so, the primary threat is in dealing with local uprisings, in which airpower will pay a major role for the central government.
Seperatist Kurd's, religious Shiite splinter groups, Sunni awakening council are all possibilities, & they should arm accordingly.
Having quick, heavy force available from the air will have a major dampening effect on such groups...


Good buys, in my opinion..

- A lot of the Eastern European new NATO countries are looking to get rid of Mi-17's & Mi-24's. There are a lot of good upgrade packages available for these craft, as well as many trainers (mercs) available from Eastern Europe/Ukraine/Russia/South Africa, etc.
Spend the extra, get them fully overhauled & outfitted, & you've got a formidable force at a relatively cheap price.

- Super Tunaco's - good, pretty cheap COIN/CAS craft.

- Second hand Mirage's would be a good buy, or F-16's or Mig-29's.
Buy second hand, get them overhauled & outfitted, & if they go for F-16's, look to purchase from European stocks, & load up on as many spares as possible.
Probably only need about 24 or so in my opinion - split them into 2 groups, with a few spares..


Basically the central government needs to be able to show it's strength over the next 4 or 5 years in order to stabilise things, while not blowing out the budget needed for reconstruction.
Hopefully, they will buy accordingly.

 

[OPSSG]

@macman,

Please read a thread called "Iraq Buys F-16s?" (see all 4 pages).

Suspect the most likely scenario for a blockade is in simply getting closer to Iran once the American's are gone, which is a very likely scenario...

A number of fellow forum members have commented on why this scenario is unlikely in the other thread. If you disagree, please consider addressing the points raised.

As for looking to build up the airforce over the next 5 years or so, the primary threat is in dealing with local uprisings, in which airpower will pay a major role for the central government.
Separatist Kurd's, religious Shiite splinter groups, Sunni awakening council are all possibilities, & they should arm accordingly.
Having quick, heavy force available from the air will have a major dampening effect on such groups...

Agreed. Air power is an important factor in any conflict.

Good buys, in my opinion..

- A lot of the Eastern European new NATO countries are looking to get rid of Mi-17's & Mi-24's. There are a lot of good upgrade packages available for these craft, as well as many trainers (mercs) available from Eastern Europe/Ukraine/Russia/South Africa, etc.
Spend the extra, get them fully overhauled & outfitted, & you've got a formidable force at a relatively cheap price.

IMHO, Iraqi does not need mercs to train them to operate their Eastern fleet of helicopters (unless I misunderstood you ). The US or her relevant appointed allies can provide the necessary training (since some new NATO members were formerly Warsaw pact members).

- Super Tunaco's - good, pretty cheap COIN/CAS craft.

I agree.

Second hand Mirage's would be a good buy, or F-16's or Mig-29's.
Buy second hand, get them overhauled & outfitted, & if they go for F-16's, look to purchase from European stocks, & load up on as many spares as possible.
Probably only need about 24 or so in my opinion - split them into 2 groups, with a few spares..

I made a number of posts in the other thread explaining why a mixed F-16 and Chinese figher fleet was a bad idea. The same arguments would apply to a mixed F-16 & <insert favourate air plane called 'x'>, unless x was given free. The F-16 is multi-role capable, there is no benefit in introducing unnecessary complexity.

Further, Malaysia was cited as a country that operates both western fleet (8x F-18s) and MiG-29s. I clearly criticized that decision. Please read the other thread, I do not wish to repeat the same arguments.

That discussion and the possible embargo issue also spilled over to the Malaysian Air force thread (link provided). So let's avoid going around in circles.

Basically the central government needs to be able to show it's strength over the next 4 or 5 years in order to stabilise things, while not blowing out the budget needed for reconstruction.
Hopefully, they will buy accordingly.

US and her heir allies should be able to provide all the necessary military know how and military-aid for Iraq to stand on her own feet.

Let us hope that Iraq will succeed.

 

[anan]

macman and OPSSG, the IqAF (Iraqi Air Force) tried to purchase the AT 29 EMB-314 Super Tucano. The Brazilians refused to sell, and the IqAF bought 36 AT-6Bs and 20 T-6A trainers instead. From what I gather the Iraqis are buying the first batch of AT-6Bs being produced (the previous versions were trainers.) The AT 29 EMB-314 Super Tucanos seem to be a better choice than the AT-6Bs. Too bad Brazil refuses to sell combat aircraft to countries at war.

Summary of the Iraqi Air Force (IqAF) below:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/multimedia/OOBpage15-Equipment.pdf

There seem to be only three types of turboprop light attack aircraft available on the market:
1) AT 29 EMB-314 Super Tucano
2) AT-6Bs
3) Korean KO-1

 

[Feanor]

Iraq has plenty of their own pilots, as they used to operate considerable fleets of Mi-8/17 and Mi-24 helos.