Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Luis-Cuba]

Right now with the escalating gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine is a Russian Invasion possible? They did pull the triger on Georgia with hesitation.
In my Opinion i would say that if its going to happen is probably going to happen soon. Could Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion by themselves? How long would Russia be able to maintain an assualt and could it be succsesfull?

 

[Sintra]

Right now with the escalating gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine is a Russian Invasion possible? They did pull the triger on Georgia with hesitation.
In my Opinion i would say that if its going to happen is probably going to happen soon. Could Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion by themselves? How long would Russia be able to maintain an assualt and could it be succsesfull?

Through Ukraine runs 25% of the Russian Federation state budget in the form of gas and oil that his sold to Western Europe. If those pipelines are cut by a "reasonable" margin of time, the entire Russian economy melts.
And there´s an economic world wide recession...

Russia his not going to invade Ukraine "soon". At least for the next... decade(?) Russia and Ukraine are bound to reach some kind of peaceful business relationship.

 

[black shark]

Right now with the escalating gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine is a Russian Invasion possible? They did pull the triger on Georgia with hesitation.
In my Opinion i would say that if its going to happen is probably going to happen soon. Could Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion by themselves? How long would Russia be able to maintain an assualt and could it be succsesfull?

In my opinion, a full scale invasion would not happen but if it did, Ukraine wouldn't be able to stop an it by themselves. The following points are my reasoning:

- Russia would enjoy air superiority within a few weeks.
- Russia can outlast Ukraine in a prolonged conflict with sheer force in numbers as well as better equipment.

In pure military terms, Russia could keep the fight going for a lot longer than most would believe. I don't know how long.
Could it be successful you ask? In pure military terms, absolutely. I think it would be a tough fight with substantial losses on both sides but Russia still has a huge military second only to the US.
Even if the whole of Europe helped Ukraine, Russia would still win.

 

[Grim901]

It's unlikely. What is more likely is that Russia will permanently cut off gas to Ukraine, build pipelines elsewhere to the rest of Europe and go about it's business.

The Russians know an invasion would be a step too far, considering the guarantees the US has put on its safety.

 

[Wall83]

Russia would never invad Ukraine. Even if Russia has the biggest military of the both Ukriane is no chicken shit country like Georgia. Russia would loose so many of its fighters and bombers to ukraine SAMs and also the russian ground forces would suffer graetley against Ukrainan army with its T-84 tanks ecs.
Also the EU and NATO would surley not take kindly to a europan country so near EU borders would be attacked.
I am sure that in time Russia would beate Ukarine forces but they woulnt have anything to win by it and so much to lose.

 

[eckherl]

Why does Russia even need to invade, the majority of Ukrainians like their eastern friends and it is just a matter of Putin (yes, he is still running the show) waiting until their is a power change in Ukrainian leadership which is very likely.

 

[SkolZkiy]

If Russia invade Ukraine most of UkrArmy will join RuArmy and against their leaders, only a small western territory will be fighting against this. at all the eastern part of Ukr will join Russia. This problem was already discussed in RuNet and most of militaries and common people even in Ukraine think as I described.
I don't think US or EU will help Ukr in this war. It will be the WWIII and nobody needs this.
Fairly I doubt Ru will envade Ukr there many other ways to influence Ukr.

 

[Sampanviking]

No!!

Both Putin and the lady who is Ukraines Prime Minister (and who's name I cannot spell) enjoy a good working relationship and both cannot abide the NATO leaning PresidentYushenko and both will be pleased to use this crisis to see him permenantly gone!

 

[SkolZkiy]

Yulia Timoshenko is also an enemy of RU and thinks only about her's pocket. so yes - she will enjoy Yushenko's fall but she is not an ally to Moscow

 

[Feanor]

Russia would never invad Ukraine. Even if Russia has the biggest military of the both Ukriane is no chicken shit country like Georgia. Russia would loose so many of its fighters and bombers to ukraine SAMs and also the russian ground forces would suffer graetley against Ukrainan army with its T-84 tanks ecs.

Rubbish. The main Ukranian MBT in service is the T-64 and T-64B. Only recently did they manage to get a single tank btln modernized to the T-64BM standard. No line units are equipped with the T-84 (or even the T-80) to the best of my knowledge.

Also the EU and NATO would surley not take kindly to a europan country so near EU borders would be attacked.

Diplomatic pressure, cutting of relations, yes. Absolutely. Military action? Unlikely.

I am sure that in time Russia would beate Ukarine forces but they woulnt have anything to win by it and so much to lose.

I'm afraid people here don't realize just how bad the situation is in Ukraine. The Ukranian economy has never recovered since the collapse of the USSR. Their armed forces are ~300 000 strong, but their military budget is tiny. New equipment, when purchased, is purchased in token amounts. Their military structure currently is a half-way mix if small brigades (2-3 thousand) and large brigade (i.e. a soviet division renamed into a brigade).

The equipment consists primarily of BTR-80, and BMP-2, with money for maintenance and training being scarce. None of the new BTR-94, BTR-3, etc. have been purchased in appreciable quantities. The SAM network consists primarily of unmodernized late 80's soviet SAMs in various states of disrepair. Interestingly enough even the Buk M1 SAMs they sold to Georgia were taken off of active duty in Ukraine.

I don't know what kind of flight hours the Ukranian AF gets, but I suspect the average numbers will be horrifying. Work in some major corruption, political indecisiveness due to constant power struggles, and a demographic crisis (national population loss on an unprecedented scale) and we have a picture of modern Ukraine. I don't think they've had division level exercises systematically in many years. In case of a war, the Ukranians would collapse at the seams, quickly losing control. Not to mention a large part of the armed forces would desert, or even cross over to the Russian side, as a large part of Ukraine is Russian, and another large part is heavily Russified.

The Ukranian Army is a pushover. A house of cards. However, dealing with occupying, and rebuilding, Ukraine afterwards.... especially with a financial crisis, and domestic problems, would be more then Russia can handle. There will not be any war. Most likely some sort of compromise will be reached. Afterwards, when South Stream is complete, Ukraine will be bypassed entirely.

 

[SkolZkiy]

Agree with Feanor
But want to add that Ukraine has a number of T-72 (from SU times). But recently they are solding them very qiuckly. As examples, Georgia, news about rearmament of Iraq army and an incident with the Ukr ship in the Gulf of Aden with the T-72 on board.

 

[Pathfinder-X]

My opinion is that with the support of Yushchenko at all time low, it's only a matter of time before his cohorts are replaced by a more Russian-friendly government. I don't see the possibility of Russia using military force when Yuschenko has been flushing Ukraine's economy down the toilet.

 

[Feanor]

Agree with Feanor
But want to add that Ukraine has a number of T-72 (from SU times). But recently they are solding them very qiuckly. As examples, Georgia, news about rearmament of Iraq army and an incident with the Ukr ship in the Gulf of Aden with the T-72 on board.

Ukraine has a number of T-80 and T-72 tanks. But they're not in the armed forces. The three armored divisions (which Ukraine insists on calling brigades) are all armed with T-64, and T-64B. As far as I know the same goes for the infantry units.

EDIT: I suspect the T-80UD that Pakistan got may have come out of unused or little used invetories left over from Soviet times, with minimal refurbishment and modenization. I recall that to produce a new set of tanks Ukraine required Russian parts in particular the gun barrels from the Ekaterinburg Ordnance Plant. Russia refused to provide them, but somehow Ukraine still fulfilled the order for Pakistan. The other reason for that suspicion is that the KMZ is still in a horrible state. It's uncapable of serial tank production at the moment. There is no way it would be that bad off if it had successfully completed delivery of 320 tanks to Pak. only a little while earlier.

 

[Firn]

Both the Russian Federation and the Ukraine are in desperate economic situation, and war would be terrible for both countries. Russia's economy is practically only based on commodities and already suffers from currency devaluation and drastically decreased revenues. The sizable reserves accumulated during the boom times are melting away rapidly. The production of gas has been falling due to inefficient extraction and depletion. It desperately needs the money it takes by selling gas. Add this to political and juridical climate which drives capital out of the country and an great population loss and you get a pretty grim picture. So while the financial crisis has hit the Ukraine even harder and Russia has far greater political stability it has no cause to jubilate.

The current policies of Russia and the Ukraine are not making friends in the Europe, but Russia is wildly seen as the bully. A military action would be a huge step over the red lines of NATO, the EU and the USA.

 

[Wall83]

Ukraine has a number of T-80 and T-72 tanks. But they're not in the armed forces. The three armored divisions (which Ukraine insists on calling brigades) are all armed with T-64, and T-64B. As far as I know the same goes for the infantry units.

EDIT: I suspect the T-80UD that Pakistan got may have come out of unused or little used invetories left over from Soviet times, with minimal refurbishment and modenization. I recall that to produce a new set of tanks Ukraine required Russian parts in particular the gun barrels from the Ekaterinburg Ordnance Plant. Russia refused to provide them, but somehow Ukraine still fulfilled the order for Pakistan. The other reason for that suspicion is that the KMZ is still in a horrible state. It's uncapable of serial tank production at the moment. There is no way it would be that bad off if it had successfully completed delivery of 320 tanks to Pak. only a little while earlier.

So all the T-80UD was sold to Pakistan? Seems strange to sell your countrys best MBTs. Accourding to Global security Ukraine still has several hundreds of T-80s.

And when Russia attacked Georgia they did it with old T-72s and some T-62s, dont think that would work against the Ukrains. Russia also lost several Su-25 and one Tu-22M3 in the short Georian conflict, I would say that they would loose several hundreds in an armed cofilct with Ukarine.

 

[eckherl]

So all the T-80UD was sold to Pakistan? Seems strange to sell your countrys best MBTs. Accourding to Global security Ukraine still has several hundreds of T-80s.

And when Russia attacked Georgia they did it with old T-72s and some T-62s, dont think that would work against the Ukrains. Russia also lost several Su-25 and one Tu-22M3 in the short Georian conflict, I would say that they would loose several hundreds in an armed cofilct with Ukarine.

At that time they sold a big chunk of them to Pakistan, including the ones with welded turret design, this may be a contributing factor why it took so long for Ukraine to resume T-84 project(s). Ukraine doesn`t need Russian tank components at this time, everything is setup inhouse including making gun tubes which have better quality control standards over Russian ones. All this was quite different when the Pakistan tank deal went thru many years ago. You will see Ukrainian tank design influence in Chinese and Pakistani current generation tanks, the Ukrainians are just as good if not better in some areas than the Russians on building good tanks. Russia would take on major losses by taking on such a foolish adventure but they would have it completed in less than 72 hours. The political fallout though would be huge and Russia cannot afford this, so it will be better to just waite out the current Ukrainian political situation, they can have influence without even firing a shot.

 

[kato]

Btw...

why do people think the EU would in any way enter any such conflict on the Ukrainian side?

Ukraine vastly lost face with the EU due to its stumblings around the provisional treaty with Gazprom. Consider that Europe sent observers to Ukraine to ensure any gas coming in on the Eastern border actually gets back to them. Then that little stumble with the addendum to the treaty, and now the fact that they actually cut their own lines.

The EU isn't considering any closer relationship with Ukraine, it's considering how it can move its supplies from Russia around such a complicated transit nation. Germany is actually considering a LNG terminal as a bridging measure until Nordstream will be built in order to avoid the two "complicated" transit countries (Ukraine and Belarus). I wouldn't be surprised if similar measures were considered e.g. in Italy until the completion of TGI.

 

[Feanor]

At that time they sold a big chunk of them to Pakistan, including the ones with welded turret design, this may be a contributing factor why it took so long for Ukraine to resume T-84 project(s). Ukraine doesn`t need Russian tank components at this time, everything is setup inhouse including making gun tubes which have better quality control standards over Russian ones.

Do you have a source? As far as I know the KMZ has not engaged in serial production of MBTs and has not been engaged in it since the early 90's. Given the overall poor economic situation, and lack of exports in the country, that would put them in a state of complete disrepair. I have not heard of a Ukranian tank deal for export outside of regular shipments of old Soviet T-72's.

Finally regardless of what they still have left in inventory, the armed forces are riding around in T-64's. I've also looked through their MoD page a little while ago and found that all their live firing exercises that they mention on there, are on the btln and company lvl, and involve BMP-2, and T-64. No mention of T-72, or T-80, much less T-84. The biggest piece of news I did find there was thay over two years they modernized single tank btln to T-64BM.

 

[John Sansom]

Ukraine's best bet may well be to request a UN "pipe"-keeping force; namely engineers who would be required to monitor the lines and all associated production fixtures. Both the Ukraine and Russia have more than enough problems of other sorts and magnitudes to allow hubris and "manger-ism" to get in the way of saving their respective economies.

Or is something else at work.....?

 

[black shark]

Rubbish. The main Ukranian MBT in service is the T-64 and T-64B. Only recently did they manage to get a single tank btln modernized to the T-64BM standard. No line units are equipped with the T-84 (or even the T-80) to the best of my knowledge.



Diplomatic pressure, cutting of relations, yes. Absolutely. Military action? Unlikely.



I'm afraid people here don't realize just how bad the situation is in Ukraine. The Ukranian economy has never recovered since the collapse of the USSR. Their armed forces are ~300 000 strong, but their military budget is tiny. New equipment, when purchased, is purchased in token amounts. Their military structure currently is a half-way mix if small brigades (2-3 thousand) and large brigade (i.e. a soviet division renamed into a brigade).

The equipment consists primarily of BTR-80, and BMP-2, with money for maintenance and training being scarce. None of the new BTR-94, BTR-3, etc. have been purchased in appreciable quantities. The SAM network consists primarily of unmodernized late 80's soviet SAMs in various states of disrepair. Interestingly enough even the Buk M1 SAMs they sold to Georgia were taken off of active duty in Ukraine.

I don't know what kind of flight hours the Ukranian AF gets, but I suspect the average numbers will be horrifying. Work in some major corruption, political indecisiveness due to constant power struggles, and a demographic crisis (national population loss on an unprecedented scale) and we have a picture of modern Ukraine. I don't think they've had division level exercises systematically in many years. In case of a war, the Ukranians would collapse at the seams, quickly losing control. Not to mention a large part of the armed forces would desert, or even cross over to the Russian side, as a large part of Ukraine is Russian, and another large part is heavily Russified.

The Ukranian Army is a pushover. A house of cards. However, dealing with occupying, and rebuilding, Ukraine afterwards.... especially with a financial crisis, and domestic problems, would be more then Russia can handle. There will not be any war. Most likely some sort of compromise will be reached. Afterwards, when South Stream is complete, Ukraine will be bypassed entirely.

Feanor, interesting data, cheers. I didn't realise how weak the Ukrainian forces were. Sounds like the country is going to melt back into Russia if she carries on down this path.