Can the Israeli Arrow missile defense system defeat Iran's Shahabs?

[Treachery]

Iran says it'd retaliate against Israel and US bases in the area if its attacked. What I wonder is how prepared Israel is in terms of missile defense. Can the Israeli Arrows and Patriots engage all Iranian missiles headed for the Israeli airspace?

According to FAS.org, Shahab 6 features a range of over 6,000 kilometers and can carry a 1,000 kilogram payload. Whoa! A couple of those should be able to level Haifa even with conventional high explosive warheads.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/shahab-6.htm

 

[f-22fan12]

As far as I know, the Shahab 6 is not operational. I could be wrong on that one though. As far as missile defence goes, the U.S. Navy's sea based systems have without a doubt been the most effective. Reports on the Patriot are pretty confusing. But I gues the Patriot PAC-3 would be okay if they deployed enough. As far as I remember the Arrow has no real combat testing, so no one really knows I guess.

 

[eaf-f16]

Iran says it'd retaliate against Israel and US bases in the area if its attacked. What I wonder is how prepared Israel is in terms of missile defense. Can the Israeli Arrows and Patriots engage all Iranian missiles headed for the Israeli airspace?

According to FAS.org, Shahab 6 features a range of over 6,000 kilometers and can carry a 1,000 kilogram payload. Whoa! A couple of those should be able to level Haifa even with conventional high explosive warheads.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/shahab-6.htm

No, you can't level an entire city with just 2,000kg of explosives and Iran already has missiles to reach Israel with this type of payload.

If what you're saying were true, Israel would have been non-existent by now.

 

[Treachery]

Allow me to rephrase.

Can the Israeli air defence system stop the majority (if not all) Iranian missiles of ALL types based on their current military balance? If the Arrow isn't operational then I guess we can count those out. But are the Patriots alone enough to protect the Israeli skies?

 

[Todjaeger]

Allow me to rephrase.

Can the Israeli air defence system stop the majority (if not all) Iranian missiles of ALL types based on their current military balance? If the Arrow isn't operational then I guess we can count those out. But are the Patriots alone enough to protect the Israeli skies?

A major question that would need to be answered is just how many Iranian missiles there are, which have sufficient range to strike Israel. If the answer is one or two, or perhaps even a dozen, then Israel may very well be able to intercept them already. If OTOH Iran has dozens ready to go, then no, most likely Israeli IADS would be overwhelmed.

Another question which has not been, to my mind at least, answered satisfactorily is just how accurate the Iranian Shahab missiles are.

-Cheers

 

[SABRE]

Allow me to rephrase.

Can the Israeli air defence system stop the majority (if not all) Iranian missiles of ALL types based on their current military balance? If the Arrow isn't operational then I guess we can count those out. But are the Patriots alone enough to protect the Israeli skies?

Types is not a problem. Problem is the mumber of missiles launched. Say Iran launches 12 missiles in a single time over Israel, then it is going to be a huge problem for air/missile defence. Even larger problem if Iran develops MIRVs. - In case of MIRVs the air/missile defence system may succeed in countering the missile it self but it is not possible (perhaps) to counter all the warheads that will disprese from the missile.

2ndly geography counts. Nearer the location of launch harder is the reaction/interception by the enemy. Iran can launch missiles from its western parts - nevertheless Israel in this case has better option of pre-emption in case of both airstrikes (on missile launchers) & carryingout its own nuclear attack or missile attack. Of course all depending on intelligence.

 

[Zzims]

Wouldnt those mobile launchers would be a bit harder to hit? Being moved around daily I mean. Unless Israel or the US have satellite coverage over whole of of western Iran for 24 hours/7. SOF would be sent it to lace those targets, which is harder yet. Saddam's launchers were a problem during the first GW, let alone a well trained Iranian Crew.

 

[SABRE]

Wouldnt those mobile launchers would be a bit harder to hit? Being moved around daily I mean. Unless Israel or the US have satellite coverage over whole of of western Iran for 24 hours/7. SOF would be sent it to lace those targets, which is harder yet. Saddam's launchers were a problem during the first GW, let alone a well trained Iranian Crew.

The answer is YES mobility would make it difficult for Israel to target them.

 

[aaaditya]

i believe israel has good satellite imaging capability thanks to its ofek series of spy satellites,which gives it some advantage in any counter strike against israel or atleast to give its some advance warning of intended iranian missile strikes.

 

[zenith_suv]

Arrow is defiantly the best Missile defense system out there , it's tested under most situations and I have no doubt on it's capability to engage incoming missiles .

Someone mentioned though the problem of engaging incoming missiles from a mobility perspective and Don't know how well arrow is equipped to handle that.

 

[yasin_khan]

Iran will never attack israel because they have the missiles for the least detterant force and what iran has got they dont have latest tech armed forces and if they attack israel with their missiles what will happen when Israel retaliates with its high tech air force and dont forget US forces are in the region.Thats is a big joke that Iran will attack Israel they are only doing propaganda war and Israel have also missiles that can hit Iran majorly and Israel is also a nuclear power.

 

[Feanor]

How would Israel target them? I recall that the strike on Osirak inside of Iraq was a very difficult long range mission. It was borderline impossible. Strikes from Israeli air bases to Iran would be even farther in range. Can the F-16 and F-15 reach that far?

 

[Todjaeger]

How would Israel target them? I recall that the strike on Osirak inside of Iraq was a very difficult long range mission. It was borderline impossible. Strikes from Israeli air bases to Iran would be even farther in range. Can the F-16 and F-15 reach that far?

The first/best way that comes to mind is via the Dolphin SSK's that Israel has. Armed with sub-launched Tomahawk missiles or some other equivalent, Israel could certainly reach Iran, depending on where the sub fired from. Whether or not any of these subs operate out of Eilat/the Red Sea, or if it would to be send through the Suez or all the way around Africa...

As for an airstrike, that IMO would be very problematic without outside assistance. Israel would either need to secure overflight permission from a number of countries, be able to evade detection while on overflight without permission, or be able to fly the entire way via international airspace. Given that a direct flight would already be expected to be difficult based off range alone, I doubt that a 'round-trip' via international airspace is an option.

If some country, like the US, would step in and assist, the mission would become a bit easier. IMO though, the US would not likely do so unless it view Iran as an extreme threat on its own, because the US would likely be viewed negatively for any aid given to Israel for such a mission.

-Cheers

 

[Firehorse]

Yes, F-16Is have the range, demonstrated recently in exercises over Greece.
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/f-16i/

And thanks to the new SOF agreement with Iraq, the US may claim that they legally don't control Iraqi airspace anymore.

the Status of Forces Agreement, which goes into effect at the end of the month, would return legal control over Iraqi airspace to the Iraqi government, making the ability of the US to provide Israel cover to use the nation as a staging ground for an attack on Iran even more difficult.
http://news.antiwar.com/2008/12/04/israel-preparing-to-attack-iran-without-us-assistance/

Or maybe not! With the US is sitting on the fence, can Iraq shoot down F-16Is, especially over Kurdistan? I don't think so! But, Speculations over Israeli Preemptive Iran Strike are Unfounded