In people’s opinion could Australia recover from a preemptive surprise attack on military targets on the east coast in a similar situation as Pearl Harbour 1941?
In this scenario it is confined to military installations in Sydney, Newcastle
Fleet base east is severely damaged, east coast fleet were tied up with the majority sunk within the harbour, Holdsworthy/Morebank destroyed, RAAF Richmond c130 Hercules fleet destroyed, RAAF Williamstown severely damaged hornet fleet destroyed , RAN armaments depot Orchard hills destroyed and mymbat joint armaments depot destroyed in the hunter valley, small arms factory Lithgow damaged.
In this scenario i am not looking at how a surface fleet could get of the east coast undetected, but how would we cope from a peacetime economy/workforce to full wartime footing.
Does Australia have the infrastructure to rebuild enough shipping in a short time frame to conduct war?
Are we capable of building legacy hornet or super hornets in Australia?
Could we build small arms / artillery?
The list is end list
I am looking at this from a rebuilding phase and from a nation on full war footing and our ability to make war.
Your thoughts on how and what we could achieve in reality
I will attempt to answer this in the spirit the question seems to be asked in. I also would like to remind other posters that vs. threads (like Oz vs. Indonesia, etc) are against the forum rules. Also, specifically the following comment seems important to remember
In this scenario i am not looking at how a surface fleet could get of the east coast undetected, but how would we cope from a peacetime economy/workforce to full wartime footing.
That would seem to indicate that whom the attacker is, whom I will now refer to as Red Force, is unimportant with regards to the question being asked.
In terms of Australia making a fight of it, there IMO are a few things which would need to be clarified. So far, there seems to be fairly significant damage (or outright destruction) to ADF equipment, facilities and supporting infrastructure. I feel that in order to attempt an answer, I would need to know what Red Force is doing or does next, and in what sort of timeframe.
Also, it would be important to know what sort of reaction Australian allies and the rest of the world had to the attack(s).
If Red Force was conducting an objective raid, with the intent of weakening Oz by damaging and destroying assets, but not conducting any sort of ongoing or sustained campaign, I feel Oz could certainly rebuild. It would take time, and be a potentially painful enterprise, but could certainly be done.
OTOH, if the Red Force did or was going to conduct an ongoing campaign against Australia in the immediate or near future, and Australian allies did not become involved militarily or industrially, the Oz likely could not rebuild in time.
Taking the example given earlier, of the US war effort following Pearl Harbor, it was not really until nearly a year later, ~ November of 1942, that the US was able to start launching some counterattacks. It is also worth noting, that as a result of the war in Europe which started in 1939, the US had already begun to ramp up design and production of war material, which likely enabled the US to respond faster than it would have otherwise.
In the case of Australia, the situation is a bit more complicated that in the US in WWII. At present, the current aircraft and ships are a good deal more complicated than those used sixty years ago. Two side effects of the increase in complexity (aside from being more capable...) is that manufacture of the weapons/aircraft/ships/etc is more time consuming, and that the components used in manufacture are often sourced from all over the world.
Take the forthcoming AWD. It is a Spanish design, using a number of American made components (SPY-1D, Aegis, etc) that will undergo final assembly in Australia. IIRC once construction commences, it should take ~ 2 years from the laying of the keel to commissioning. Now, under wartime conditions, it might be possible to engage in 24 hour construction, and then to take some 'short cuts' in terms of sea trials, etc. It might, I repeat might, be possible to cut the time down to six months construction per ship, assuming all needed components are available as necessary. However, if FBE has been damaged as much as indicated, along with Sydney and Newcastle, then perhaps two thirds of the RAN fleet would need to be repaired or replaced. That could be something like four years of ship construction unless multiple yards are employed simultaneously, which could itself be difficult given that there seems to have been, if not currently be a shortaged of the appropriate skilled shipyard workers.
AFAIK, the situation would be even work with regards to aircraft construction. Australian industry is indeed involved in the airplane construction, but it is strickly as a source of aircraft subcomponents, it would be hard pressed to be able to develop or build the required cradle to grave component production facilty.
In point of fact, IMO if the US somehow ended up in a similar situation as the proposed Australian scenario, and/or a repeat of a Pearl Harbor attack in devastation, I do not think the US could rebuild that much power in time.
-Cheers
