Oman in Talks To Buy Eurofighter

eaf-f16

New Member
Oman in talks 'to buy Eurofighter jets from BAE'- AFP

Oman is in talks to buy up to 24 Eurofighter Typhoon jets from British group BAE Systems in a deal worth at least 1.4 billion pounds, the Financial Times reported Thursday.

The business daily, citing British defence sources close to the negotiations, said the Gulf state wanted to replace its 24 ageing Jaguar jets with Typhoons within the next four years.

The Eurofighter multi-purpose combat jets have been developed by a consortium of Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain, with work divided in 1998 according to the number of aircraft each country planned to buy.

The FT said the jets planned for Oman would come out of the 88 that Britain is committed to buying, and help secure billions of pounds of maintenance and support work for BAE.

Saudi Arabia and Austria have also ordered the jets.
It is important to note that Oman also has F-16C/D Block 50's and not just Jaguars as the article may imply.

To the mods: Sorry for not adding in my own analysis. I read this, didn't see it posted on DT and considered it to be important news. I unfortunately don't have much knowledge about Oman's defense procurement history.
 

slider

New Member
Oman and Typhoon

The Royal Air Force of Oman has traditionally been a customer of British defence firms buying Jaguar and Hawk aircraft in the past. The Typhoon discussions have been ongoing for some time now so it will be no surprise if they (Oman) buy the 24 that was quoted as the Jaguar is nearing time for retirement.
 

METEORSWARM

New Member
tranche 1= 50 millions dolars
tranche 2= 80 millions dolars
¿tranche 3?=100 " " " " " "

In my brain I get more expensive, but is my problem.Neurons off
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
tranche 1= 50 millions dolars
tranche 2= 80 millions dolars
¿tranche 3?=100 " " " " " "

In my brain I get more expensive, but is my problem.Neurons off
In sterling, the Tranche 2 production contract is for a slightly lower unit cost than Tranche 1. I think that is also true in Euros. There is no Tranche 3 price yet. The sterling price of T2 converted into US dollars at the current exchange rate is about $60 mn per aircraft.

BTW, the prices for both tranches are in Euros or sterling, depending on customer, not in US dollars, & the USD price therefore fluctuates according to the exchange rate. For example, the Saudi contract is worth about $6.7 bn today, but was $9 bn at one time. The price hasn't changed, the exchange rate has. Thinking of a dollar price can lead you into major mistakes, as exchange rates change.
 

simdude97

New Member
In sterling, the Tranche 2 production contract is for a slightly lower unit cost than Tranche 1. I think that is also true in Euros. There is no Tranche 3 price yet. The sterling price of T2 converted into US dollars at the current exchange rate is about $60 mn per aircraft.

BTW, the prices for both tranches are in Euros or sterling, depending on customer, not in US dollars, & the USD price therefore fluctuates according to the exchange rate. For example, the Saudi contract is worth about $6.7 bn today, but was $9 bn at one time. The price hasn't changed, the exchange rate has. Thinking of a dollar price can lead you into major mistakes, as exchange rates change.
Where do you get 60mn per aircraft from? Financial Times, the BBC, Flugue Revue, the Saudi MOD and the National Accounting office all indicate a unit price closer to 61 million pounds sterling for Eurofighter. The original production contract for the basic airframe, engine and avionics was for 45.4 million pounds each in 1998. ($72.7 million each at 11/19/98 dollar to pound rates) That does not count additional development costs, R&D or the additional capability such as austere ground attack and integration things such as the helmet mounted sight. Nowhere have I ever seen a price of 60 million dollars each except for in forums from the Typhoon boosters.

In fact the NAO as recently as last year has projected that the average unit production cost of T1 and T2 Typhoons will be 68.9 million pounds each.

http://www.flugrevue.de/index.php?id=2835

http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/nao_reports/07-08/070898ii.pdf
Starting on page 153. See detail for explanation of how they came to the cost of 68.9

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a_tmH4i16wBk&refer=europe

Could someone please correct me if I am wrong.

BTW, Bloomberg in 2007 gave both the price in sterling and the price in dollars using the then exchange rate.
4.43 billion pounds ($8.86 billion)
Thats over 120 million each in t2007 dollars. It included the aircraft. No spares, no weapons.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Where do you get 60mn per aircraft from? Financial Times, the BBC, Flugue Revue, the Saudi MOD and the National Accounting office all indicate a unit price closer to 61 million pounds sterling for Eurofighter. The original production contract for the basic airframe, engine and avionics was for 45.4 million pounds each in 1998. ($72.7 million each at 11/19/98 dollar to pound rates) That does not count additional development costs, R&D or the additional capability such as austere ground attack and integration things such as the helmet mounted sight. Nowhere have I ever seen a price of 60 million dollars each except for in forums from the Typhoon boosters.

In fact the NAO as recently as last year has projected that the average unit production cost of T1 and T2 Typhoons will be 68.9 million pounds each.

http://www.flugrevue.de/index.php?id=2835

http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/nao_reports/07-08/070898ii.pdf
Starting on page 153. See detail for explanation of how they came to the cost of 68.9

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a_tmH4i16wBk&refer=europe

Could someone please correct me if I am wrong.

BTW, Bloomberg in 2007 gave both the price in sterling and the price in dollars using the then exchange rate. Thats over 120 million each in t2007 dollars. It included the aircraft. No spares, no weapons.
What price do you wish to discuss? System price, including development? "Flyaway", as widely used for US aircraft? Contract price for export customers, which, as we all know, is subject to immense variation depending on what is included in the particular contract, & is therefore rarely comparable between contracts? The usually quoted prices for competitors are "flyaway", & I have therefore endeavoured to give the closest equivalent.

The contract prices for Tranches 1 & 2 are the closest we have to the US flyaway price, & as I said, the production contract for Tranche 2 (i.e. current production) is cheaper than Tranche 1. The price you quote for production is the Tranche 1 price. At todays exchange rate, (just under $1.50 to the pound), the quoted T2 sterling price is about $63 mn, the Euro price (13bn /236=55 mn) $69 mn, but the Euro contract price depends somewhat on sterling costs, so will be lower now that the pound is cheaper, & the sterling price on euro costs, so will be higher - i.e. in between those figures. Slightly more than my off the top of my head figure, but only a little. That's compatible with a contract price for Oman of about $80-85 mn, which is the range being speculated about, & the Saudi contract price of £4.43 billion ($6.645 bn), or £61.5mn/$92.3 mn unit price - at todays exchange rate.

The NAO price has been stated elsewhere (including Parliament) to include fixed costs for the whole production run, divided between the T1 & T2 number of aircraft. Unless T3 is cancelled, those costs will be spread over more units, thus reducing the unit price. It is hard to say exactly what the NA price is: certainly not a UPC in US terms, nor a unit system price. Contrary to what you say, it is not explained. Many (a total of 20) of the detailed figures are given as ***, i.e. withheld from the published report. There is no separation of development & production expenditure to date. It's very hard to compare to anything. We have no idea what comparable figures for the F-22, for example, are.

Neither Bloomberg, nor anyone else, can state that the Saudi contract was only for the aircraft, since the terms have not been revealed. The Bloomberg story you link to does not say what you claim. It gives no details about the contract, except the total price & total number of aircraft. I have read the Saudi press release (always go to primary sources) & it does not say the unit price is X. All it says is the total contract price, the number of aircraft, & that the Saudis are paying much the same as the RAF. Since no breakdown of costs or what is included in the contract is given, that can be interpreted in many ways, & I suspect that is deliberate. It is not, as you appear to believe, a definite statement that the price for an aircraft, without support, spares, weapons or other costs, is £61.5 mn. That's as much in pounds as Austria paid in Euros.

Your reliance on interpreting second-hand reports, & reading far more into them than they actually say, & your choice of figures converted into a currency other than those in which the aircraft are priced, at freak peak exchange rates, clearly demonstrates your agenda.
 
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simdude97

New Member
The contract prices for Tranches 1 & 2 are the closest we have to the US flyaway price, & as I said, the production contract for Tranche 2 (i.e. current production) is cheaper than Tranche 1.
Not by much and that does not take into account the cost increases for PIRATE, and several additional weapons and sensors to integrated in T1 and T2 aircraft.
http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/nao_reports/07-08/070898ii.pdf Page 156 and 157.
Keep in mind the prices quoted are for the austere models.

The price you quote for production is the Tranche 1 price. At todays exchange rate, (just under $1.50 to the pound), the quoted T2 sterling price is about $63 mn, the Euro price (13bn /236=55 mn) $69 mn, but the Euro contract price depends somewhat on sterling costs, so will be lower now that the pound is cheaper, & the sterling price on euro costs, so will be higher - i.e. in between those figures.
All very nice but T1 aircraft where produced when the exchange rate was closer to just under $2.00 to the pound). Today's exchange rate is irrelevant when talking about T1 aircraft. They have been produced already. The T1 contract (not including cost over runs or increases due to additional requirements or contract increase was 2.5 billion GBP for 55 aircraft. If we use your logic and only go by the contract price (which the NAO says is not the accurate way to assess the cost of the Typhoon) then you get about 45 million GBP per unit. Since production of T2 just started lets say the the production run went from 10/15/04 to 4/15/08. The average daily exchange rate for that period was 1.895. Using that number the average dollar cost of T1 aircraft using YOUR contract number was 86 million USD.

Right now the dollar is at about 1.4 to the pound. That is abnormally low and you should not expect that to hold forever.

Lastly, the NAO has consistently forecast an average unit procurement cost over 60 million GBP. This number has increased even though the initial development is complete and two tranches have either been bought or placed in contract.


The NAO price has been stated elsewhere (including Parliament) to include fixed costs for the whole production run, divided between the T1 & T2 number of aircraft. Unless T3 is cancelled, those costs will be spread over more units, thus reducing the unit price.
Wrong. Take the NAO approved program cost 16.671 billion pounds (there have been over runs) and divide by 188 (number of T1 and T2 units) and you get 88.67 million GBP, not 68.9. Using the approved procurement cost to predict final average UPC (divide by 232) would give you a UPC of 71.8 million GPB per unit. Even worse. Further you are getting confused with incremental cost. Production cost is very similar (there are a few differences) to fly away cost. They both take into account how much it costs to produce a single unit of something, and yes they both include fixed costs incurred in production.

Neither Bloomberg, nor anyone else, can state that the Saudi contract was only for the aircraft, since the terms have not been revealed.
True, the Saudi press release did not mention details. One can deduce that
the Saudi deal only included the plane and engines. No weapons, no support, no spares, no infrastructure.
Negotiations are continuing for the armaments systems to be carried by the aircraft, which could cost an estimated £5bn. A further contract – estimated by some sources at up to £10bn – for support and maintenance of the Typhoon envisages building a big defence infrastructure in the kingdom.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cfe3d37e-6534-11dc-bf89-0000779fd2ac.html

More at http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article2477461.ece

The initial contract will be supplemented with a further order for armaments and weapons systems estimated to be worth £5 billion.

The Saudis are expected to spend a further £10 billion on maintenance, training and support for the aircraft.
Your reliance on interpreting second-hand reports, & reading far more into them than they actually say, & your choice of figures converted into a currency other than those in which the aircraft are priced, at freak peak exchange rates, clearly demonstrates your agenda.
I have given you facts backed up using primary or respected secondary sources. From 6/1/03 to 11/15/08 the average daily exchange rate has been 1.856. You are the one who brought up that a typhoon could be had for 60 million dollars, not me. You in turn accuse me of having an agenda all the while neglecting to back up anything you have said with any citations. Pretty laughable considering you have not backed up a word you have said with any source.

You are quite simply wrong in stating that a Typhoon could be had for 60 million USD and it was you who brought up dollars as well. In the future don't expect a reply from me unless you have some reliable sources to back up anything you say. The only agenda I have here is to point out your error.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I have given you facts backed up using primary or respected secondary sources. From 6/1/03 to 11/15/08 the average daily exchange rate has been 1.856. You are the one who brought up that a typhoon could be had for 60 million dollars, not me. You in turn accuse me of having an agenda all the while neglecting to back up anything you have said with any citations. Pretty laughable considering you have not backed up a word you have said with any source.

You are quite simply wrong in stating that a Typhoon could be had for 60 million USD and it was you who brought up dollars as well. In the future don't expect a reply from me unless you have some reliable sources to back up anything you say. The only agenda I have here is to point out your error.
Your "respected secondary sources" are speculative press reports, or press reports into which you read things they do not say (e.g. the Bloomberg report). You have made inferences for which there is no evidence, e.g. that the failure of a terse, deliberately lacking in detail press release to give a particular detail is proof that the the detail does not exits.

You have now claimed, despite it being visible in this thread that my first post was a reply to one mentioning dollar prices, that I introduced the US dollar into this discussion. You haven't noticed that I've consistently argued that dollar prices are misleading, because they're exchange rate dependent? Ah well. :( BTW, the dollar is 1.5 to the pound (as I said!) not 1.4.

You've also misread what I said about the NAO report. I did not say that the NAO "UPC" includes all fixed costs, nor that it includes development. I said it includes fixed costs for the production run, meaning production fixed costs, not development. We know that from other sources (not the NAO report itself, as it doesn't include a detailed breakdown), & that it also includes "capital charges" (i.e. notional interest), some of which will be spread across the whole production run, whatever that eventually turns out to be, We don't, because it does not give such a breakdown, know how much those costs are.

It is reasonable for the NAO to include those costs in total production cost, as it is trying to establish what the government is spending. That is its remit. It is therefore correct to dismiss the T1 & T2 contracts as bases for calculating production cost, for its purposes, since they don't include all the production investment, or the cost of the government agency managing the procurement. But if we are making comparisons with other aircraft programmes, we should not include those costs in the unit price of the aircraft, because the published figures for US & other competitive programmes do not include such costs in the unit price.

What price you use depends on what you're using it for. You want to know the price to the British taxpayer, then you look at the total system price, including development. You want to know the cost to an export customer, then you look at either the contracts which have been signed (if you know the breakdown), or try to find out the marginal unit price & apply a suitable markup. The NAO price is neither. It is useful for internal accounting (what it's intended for!), but not in comparisons. And it isn't what export customers pay, which is supposed to be the current production price (i.e. the T1 price for Austria, T2 for the first 24 Saudi aircraft, plus whatever their local assembly line adds for the next 48), plus a 7% levy towards development costs (can be waived), & potentially plus an optional additional markup, if the market will bear it. And, of course, the cost of initial training, initial spares, manuals, & any essential support equipment.
 
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