Will latest F-35 problems push Norway towards a European solution?

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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I did'nt find that phrase despite my sincerest effort.
I did find this tho...


http://archive.gao.gov/d30t5/135023.pdf

It costed me 3 hour search and a headache...
again, not one reference to absolute speeed as a primary design element.

there is a reason for this. - western aircraft manufacturers (as a legacy of reviewing the results of actual air battlespace fighting in modern wars) determined that the need for absolute speed as a way of meeting Boyds objectives was no longer needed.

The last generational aircraft to be designed for high speed platform intercept were the F-15 and F-14. In real terms the philosophy of the use of Mach2.5+ as an important vector died in the mid 80's. It not only effected US views on their manned fighter solutions, but also manned bombers (eg B1-A and B2)

At the point where Western manufacturers determined that it was no longer required to factor in Mach 2.5+ as the principle design vector they then started improving the platform where it was part of a system response. eg TVC missiles, multi-seeker missiles, HMC, even the short foray into TVC for the platform was short lived due to advances in missile development and aircraft handling improvements (eg FBW). Then there were improvements in other battlespace contributors, be it AWACs/AEWCs, Link 16, Link 22, AESA over PESA, mulit stage missiles, future hypersonic ALM's etc...

Again, absolute top speed for the F-22 was never a design critical vector as the requirement was not there.
 
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Waterfestival93

New Member
Re: AUSSIE DIGGER

[DAS/EOTS - 360 degree EO/IR coverage throughout the flight envelope. No other tactical aircraft on the planet will have this capability.

Advanced 3rd (or 4th depending on your POV) generation AESA radar. Euro-Canard manufacturers haven't produced an operational fighter-equipped AESA radar yet. The APG-81 follows the work American radar manufacturers have already done on the APG-63 (v3), APG-77, APG-79 and APG-80... No Euro-Canard fighter is likely to have such a capability when the F-35 enters service.

A production run which will exceed the combined production runs of ALL the Euro-Canard aircraft, put together. Due to economies of scale, this means the F-35 IS cheaper to buy.
I disagree,
1) the Gripen NG with IRST pod and integrated sensors will have approximately same capability, with the difference that it will be a lot cheaper to upgrade when it's not as integrated into the airframe/sensor suite as in JSF.
2) the AESA that will be produced and used in the operational Gripen NG (2015) is not specified yet. It might even be delivered by Raytheon, so why assume it will be inferior?
3) economies of scale? Yeah right. You may build 50000 Maybach limousines and they will still be more expensive than a Lotus Exige. The question is; what do you want to use your machine for? if it is around a racetrack, don't buy a Maybach...
 
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Waterfestival93

New Member
Some thoughts regarding the US parts in Gripen AC;
I don't think it's any need to see this as a weakness. If you produce a affordable and highly competent machine you would naturally include the world leading manufacturers. That will give you a better machine, and there is no need to invent the wheel again. Why would COTS be inferior in quality? For shure it's cheaper than bespoke military stuff. The Gripen A/B/C/D and NG have maybe 50-60% US parts, and the remaining is European. So what? It's the best suppliers. If you compare that to race cars you would maybe build a car with Brembo brakes from italy, Öhlin dampers from Sweden, Bridgestone tyres from japan, Chassis from Dallara in Italy, HANS safety support developed by Dr Robert Hubbard of Michigan State University US etc... No need to try to develop all that on your own, that would just waste a lot of money, don't you think
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
If you want to develop something better than what is rehashes of COTS/MOTS today, you develop new.

Like the engine for the Gripen NG - 414G - it was developed and was brand new once. It is really not going to be developed much further now. The end of the upgrade path.

So you develop new engines, like the F-135, which will take you beyond tinkering with older engines. And you put them in new planes - which also are built with newer technology and improved concepts and to new concepts. And then you upgrade them.

To put it to the point, in the fighter context: "COTS/MOTS was leading bleeding edge yesterday."

Otherwise, following your concept, you'd be showing up with a modded Ford T in a Formula 1 race.

The reason why COTS/MOTS is cheap is because someone took the effort to spend the money to develop them.

But I'm pleased to see that you acknowledge the lower level of systems integration and sensor fusion on the Gripen.
 
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Abraham Gubler

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
1) the Gripen NG with IRST pod and integrated sensors will have approximately same capability, with the difference that it will be a lot cheaper to upgrade when it's not as integrated into the airframe/sensor suite as in JSF.
No chance. An IRST pod can not provide full spherical field of view. If its not integrated into the 'sensor suite' or mission system and data fused then the pilot has to manage this integration. That takes time and awareness and significantly degrades overall capability compared to the 'flight sim' like F-35.

the AESA that will be produced and used in the operational Gripen NG (2015) is not specified yet. It might even be delivered by Raytheon, so why assume it will be inferior?
Because its not going onto a US standard product so they will degrade the technology for export. Also the AESA is only the nose of the radar system its what is working behind it that really counts. Especially for AESA where so many functions require software to leverage.

Since so many people are forming opinions about fighter combat aircraft effectiveness without the kind of data about the aircraft and how they are used these kind of 'debates' are pointless. There is very little open source benchmarking available, though I would direct anyone's attention to the Air War over Lebanon in 1982 to see what happens when a force with a strong advantage in situational awareness takes on one focused on platform performance. But in the interest of benchmarking I point your attention to the following open source combat effectiveness rating determined by the US GAO (national auditor) working with industry and military experts. They determined that using the F-35 as a benchmark (1.0) the F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet has 0.65, the F/A-18E/F Block I Super Hornet 0.316, the F/A-18C/D Hornet 0.193, the F-14D Tomcat 0.195 and the AV-8B Harrier 0.111. (GAO-04-900 “Force Structure Department of the Navy’s Tactical Aviation Integration Plan Is Reasonable, but Some Factors Could Affect Implementation).

Starting in reverse this shows that a high performance fighter with great speed, maneuverability but with a mix of 1970s and 1980s technology missions systems like the F-14D is twice as effective in combat as a simple bomb truck without supersonic performance like the Harrier. An aircraft with 1980s mission systems and a tweaked radar (late 80s) with high attention to versatility and high maneuverability that can fly supersonic but not very well like the F/A-18C/D is almost as effective as the F-14D. These are your basic 4th generation aircraft types. Now add in a tactically significant stealth capability like in the Block I Super Hornet and its 1.6 times as capable as the 4th gen version (C/D). Add to that an AESA and high power computers with late 1990s, early 2000s mission systems and the aircraft is 3.3 times as capable as the best thing in the air from the 4th generation (F-14D). Now have an aircraft with very high levels of stealth, data fusion, self-flying capability, high end 2010 sensors and suddenly its more than 5 times as capable.

Now where will the Gripen NG fit in on that table? It will be lucky if it emerges en par with the Block II Super Hornet. So at the best it can hope for is that the F-35 will only be 1.5 times as capable.
 

Heretic

New Member
I could be mistaken here, but I think what GF was referring to was what appeared to be a claim of content in the Gripen (or perhaps Gripen NG) that was not available in the F-35.

Another possibility was the suggestion that the Gripen would be a preferred design as the aircraft comes from a neighbor of Norway as opposed to across the Atlantic. Given the high content of US products within the Gripen, at some point any US supply problems would impact the Gripen, just like it would the F-35.

As for using MOTS components as opposed to newly developed components, yes there is a lower risk and cost factor. There is also a lower capability factor as well. That is something which Norway needs to decide upon. Capability vs. Price.

-Cheers
Well, thats politics. The origional point still has validity in that the system developers and maintainers are right next door and this MIGHT result in better training and safer supply and easier comunication. Or it might not, Im really not in a position to say.

Really? You can definately say that due to the fact that the gripen uses a high degree of off-the-shelf components, its capabilities will be less than f35? Tall claim, imo. NB im not comparing the platforms, just saying that you read alot into it and making sweeping claims.

My personal opinion of the gripen platform is that its excellent for swedish conditions and the swedish defencedoctrine. The idea of guirilla jets as it were apeals to me. It seems perfect for the task of denying airsuperiority to a superior neighbour. Like, Pakistan might have been well served by gripens for example, assuiming they would also use the dispersed airfields strategy. Small russian neighbours like Georgia might also be well served. Or cuba for that matter. But comparing it and saying that it is less capable than the f35 that is developed for a completely different job is a very brave claim. Especially with the limited information we all have, no matter what position you have in this or that defenceorganisation.

Lets take norway as an example. In my opinion, the eurofighter would serve Norway best as long as it is not at war with russia. Reason being that the most likely worst-case scenario is that something goes wrong when Norwidgian jets go up to confront russian jets over the north coast of norway. Its a wvr scenario and long loitertimes and high speed are important.

The f35 might be better if it were used aggressively together with other natoforces. Depending on what other forces are readily available.

And the gripen might be better if the main concern is invasiondefence and you want to protect against having your fleet of limited jets destroyed on the ground or made incapable of operating from the 3 or so airbases capable of hosting them.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
But in the interest of benchmarking I point your attention to the following open source combat effectiveness rating determined by the US GAO (national auditor) working with industry and military experts. They determined that using the F-35 as a benchmark (1.0) the F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet has 0.65, the F/A-18E/F Block I Super Hornet 0.316, the F/A-18C/D Hornet 0.193, the F-14D Tomcat 0.195 and the AV-8B Harrier 0.111. (GAO-04-900 “Force Structure Department of the Navy’s Tactical Aviation Integration Plan Is Reasonable, but Some Factors Could Affect Implementation).
Absolutely fascinating. No really. No sarcasm. Do you have similar comparisons for any other aircraft? I would be very interesting in terms of comparing aircraft. I understand it's somewhat simplified, but none the less very insightful.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Well, thats politics. The origional point still has validity in that the system developers and maintainers are right next door and this MIGHT result in better training and safer supply and easier comunication. Or it might not, Im really not in a position to say.
As pointed out, there are a couple of issues with the notion suggested about. A number of the systems used in the Gripen (or the proposed NG) will be non-Swedish in origin, therefore there would be no additional safety for these systems in Sweden. Also, Sweden would have the ability to maintain these systems, a capability that Norway could easily develop assuming it did not already have that, and therefore no real additional advantage. As for assistance from system developers, this becomes important if/when additional capabilities are desired from an aircraft, or if/when new systems are to be fitted. This is an area where economies of scale can make a difference. The more aircraft users are working towards adapting a system to work on a given aircraft, the less the overall development cost is per unit typically.

Really? You can definately say that due to the fact that the gripen uses a high degree of off-the-shelf components, its capabilities will be less than f35? Tall claim, imo. NB im not comparing the platforms, just saying that you read alot into it and making sweeping claims.
Not really, and if one considers what it means to use MOTS components one can deduce why. As GD posted

If you want to develop something better than what is rehashes of COTS/MOTS today, you develop new.
AND

To put it to the point, in the fighter context: "COTS/MOTS was leading bleeding edge yesterday."
AND

The reason why COTS/MOTS is cheap is because someone took the effort to spend the money to develop them.
By the time a system would be considered MOTS, it is no longer top of the line, leading edge. MOTS systems are used because of a lower cost and risk since the system development work has already been completed and paid for. However, as part of this, the capabilities of a given system are set. The only way to advance or improve on a systems' capabilities is to modify or develop a system, which in turn makes something no longer MOTS and also exposes the developer to cost and risk issues. The point of developing new systems is to either improve on the capabilities of existing systems, or add additional capabilities not already included.

Part of the reason why the JSF program is taking so long, and why the ATF/F-22 took so long, was the amount of system development work done to include capabilities that other aircraft do not have, or expand upon them. Two key areas of improvement the F-35 has over previous generations of multi-role aircraft has to do with the sensor fusion/situational awareness and LO properties. As far as LO goes, the less likely the opponent is to notice the aircraft, the more likely the F-35 will be able to perform its mission, i.e. one does not shoot at a target one does not know is there. As for the improvements to situational awareness and the sensor fusion, this is done to give the operator a better idea of what is going on. The data can either come from different onboard sensors (some of which cover arcs not found on other aircraft) or to make use of offboard sensors. Similarly, the F-35 can then relay information out to other receivers to inform them of situations.

I do not believe a Gripen (even the NG), using MOTS components and a non-LO airframe will be able to match the offensive and defensive capabilities of the F-35 given the effort taken the extend F-35 capabilities in LO and situational awareness beyond what existing fighters of similar roles can do currently. Keep in mind, it is not just the raw performance of the F-35, it is how well the F-35 will integrate into an entire system

My personal opinion of the gripen platform is that its excellent for swedish conditions and the swedish defencedoctrine. The idea of guirilla jets as it were apeals to me. It seems perfect for the task of denying airsuperiority to a superior neighbour. Like, Pakistan might have been well served by gripens for example, assuiming they would also use the dispersed airfields strategy. Small russian neighbours like Georgia might also be well served. Or cuba for that matter. But comparing it and saying that it is less capable than the f35 that is developed for a completely different job is a very brave claim. Especially with the limited information we all have, no matter what position you have in this or that defenceorganisation.
With one caveat, I disagree. Since emphasis was placed on the Gripen being able to use Swedish roadways as dispersed airfields, that could be one area where the Gripen on a platform level out performs the F-35. By the same token though, such a capability could prove to be less than useful if one considers how air campaigns have been fought over the last ~18 years. Generally the first targets in an air campaign is the C4ISR and IADS. As one of the initial targets, without sufficient warning, any aircraft on the ground at an airfield are likely to be destroyed on site. Also, if the aircraft were able to be dispersed and concealed to evade destruction during the opening on an air campaign, as soon as the aircraft attempt to sortie, they will be swarmed by hostile aircraft. The only ways to avoid this is either by evading detection, or managing to deny control of airspace. Given that is one of the first goals of an air campaign... That cannot be achieved if ones forces are dispersed and concealed.

As for the "role" of the Gripen and the F-35, my understanding is that both are (or are to be) multi-role aircraft, being capable of performing air to ground, and air to air missions. The differences in size and performance are what would lead to different missions being assigned to the aircraft.

-Cheers
 

Abraham Gubler

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Absolutely fascinating. No really. No sarcasm. Do you have similar comparisons for any other aircraft? I would be very interesting in terms of comparing aircraft. I understand it's somewhat simplified, but none the less very insightful.
Not that will help this discussion. These kind of benchmarks in an unclassified version are rare, fortunately the US Government decided they needed it in assessing the US Navy's fleet management plan a few years ago. The link to the report .pdf is:

www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/gao/d04900.pdf
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Well, thats politics. The origional point still has validity in that the system developers and maintainers are right next door and this MIGHT result in better training and safer supply and easier comunication. Or it might not, Im really not in a position to say.
Had an additional thought in regards to this. If a number of the key aircraft systems are sourced from outside Sweden, as mentioned before, then the manufacturor of the aircraft being "next door" is of less importance. The end-user of the aircraft could still run into issues stemming from problems with or from the source nation of a system.

Remember a few years ago (2005-ish IIRC) when Venezuela was looking to purchase a number of military transports and other goods. Spain was all set to sign a contract to provide them, until the US got involved as a result of diplomatic issues between Venezuela and the US. The US blocked Spain from selling transports equipped with US technology to Venezuela. Now I do forget whether or not Spain still got the contract and if a design was offered without US tech, but one can see the impact it would have. Either the buyer has to pay an increase due to more development work required for the aircraft sale, or the selling has to drop their earnings per aircraft, tank, ship etc.

Now there are good relations between Norway and the US (else Norway would not be a JSF partner) as well as between the US and Sweden. It is still possible where the US (or any other country with a hand in the Gripen) could be able to impose restrictions on the use, sale, development, repair, etc of the Gripen. This in effect would negate any "nordic advantage" to be found by purchasing locally as it were.

-Cheers
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Now there are good relations between Norway and the US (else Norway would not be a JSF partner) as well as between the US and Sweden. It is still possible where the US (or any other country with a hand in the Gripen) could be able to impose restrictions on the use, sale, development, repair, etc of the Gripen. This in effect would negate any "nordic advantage" to be found by purchasing locally as it were.

-Cheers
Gripen is already subject to USG intervention due to containing US parts (eg engine as one example)

Onsale to any customer requires US State Dept release and approval.
Similarly, France has similar restrictions in place for the export or embedded export of any French military material.
 

Heretic

New Member
...
The US blocked Spain from selling transports equipped with US technology to Venezuela.
...
-Cheers
This is a valid point and I wholeheartedly agree that it is a disadvantage to be dependent on more than one parliament. However, since the Gripens only place here is as an alternative to the f35 Nowrway is going to be dependent on american goodwill by default. If that is seen as a problem then choosing gripen instead does not solve that problem.

Buy french! Excellent aircraft and no strings attached!
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Buy french! Excellent aircraft and no strings attached!
Try telling the Israeli's that - or for that matter the RAAF. (long memories over French reaction to Vietnam)

We set clear caveats on suppliers now so as to not have enbargoes impact on if and whether we go to war. We also had the same problem with the Swedes but managed to resolve that starting with Collins.
 

Heretic

New Member
...
With one caveat, I disagree. Since emphasis was placed on the Gripen being able to use Swedish roadways as dispersed airfields, that could be one area where the Gripen on a platform level out performs the F-35.
By the same token though, such a capability could prove to be less than useful if one considers how air campaigns have been fought over the last ~18 years. Generally the first targets in an air campaign is the C4ISR and IADS.
Well, you assume these are succesful? If you build your airdefence on dispersed roadbases you also include robust c4isr systems and replacements. For example, in addition to fixed radarsystems sweden used an abundance of mobile replacements. If sweden were to build up a new invasiondefence then all radarsystems would be mobile is my guess, the bunker-busters the americans demonstrated during the iraq-war made all the fixed installations obsolete. And, defending against a russian attack is very different from defending against an american attack. Sure, the russians have overwhelming force but come nowhere near the sophistication in command and control, feedback and precision.

As one of the initial targets, without sufficient warning, any aircraft on the ground at an airfield are likely to be destroyed on site.
You can always paint scenarios where resistance is futile. Fully fledged invasion is not a likely scenario for norway to face anyway, Norway is not part of russias sphere of influence and that is why Norway does not use the dispersed roadbase system. Finland is the only scandinavian country that really need an invasiondefence and they use dispersed roadbases.

Also, if the aircraft were able to be dispersed and concealed to evade destruction during the opening on an air campaign, as soon as the aircraft attempt to sortie, they will be swarmed by hostile aircraft.
? You are giving the russians ALOT of cred here.

The only ways to avoid this is either by evading detection, or managing to deny control of airspace. Given that is one of the first goals of an air campaign... That cannot be achieved if ones forces are dispersed and concealed.
...
-Cheers
Listen, the only real difference between operating from dispersed roadbases or not is that its harder to find the roadbases. You will make do with what radar coverage and command and control remains to you in either case. Just that its harder to knock out the actual airframes and their supply with the dispersed roadbase system.

You think like an american in this, for a small nation like finland to even contemplating having airsuperiority against the russians is ludicrous. So, you operate from dispersed roadbases and prepare maybe 20 times the roadbases you need and protect each one with a sam or two and place replicas on all of them and hop between them. The aim is to maintain SOME capacity even thou the enemy has vastly superior resources. And force the enemy to concentrate on reaching airsuperiority for a longer time. And force the enemy to place escorts on all their bombingruns for a longer time. Making each bomb more expensive and thus fewer.
 

Heretic

New Member
Try telling the Israeli's that - or for that matter the RAAF. (long memories over French reaction to Vietnam)

We set clear caveats on suppliers now so as to not have enbargoes impact on if and whether we go to war. We also had the same problem with the Swedes but managed to resolve that starting with Collins.
Well, I guess its a risk with any supplier. For example, the US withheld supply to the brits during the falkland war for political reasons.

Admin Edit: Text Deleted Perhaps you need to look at the forum rules before posting again. Or you could keep your veiled racism to yourself. Either way, opinion as expressed in those terms is unacceptable in the spirit of what we seek in here. Fact and considered responses without personal political colour is expected


Warning Issued
 
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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
You think like an american in this, for a small nation like finland to even contemplating having airsuperiority against the russians is ludicrous. So, you operate from dispersed roadbases and prepare maybe 20 times the roadbases you need and protect each one with a sam or two and place replicas on all of them and hop between them. The aim is to maintain SOME capacity even thou the enemy has vastly superior resources. And force the enemy to concentrate on reaching airsuperiority for a longer time. And force the enemy to place escorts on all their bombingruns for a longer time. Making each bomb more expensive and thus fewer.

Actually, the obsession with road reventments and remote bases was dropped by most NATO nations after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.

There's a few reasons for this:


  • GW1 demonstrated what could be achieved with precision weapons
  • the US deployed digger weapons which made short work of underground facilities as well as the thickest HAS ever constructed
  • The concept of "reversing the pearls" was developed - ie lace the perimeter of mountain based aircraft shelters and sub terranean facilities (the same problem that the Chinese would have with their facilities.
Once the chinese recognised the problem they rapidly expanded the number of fighter carriage capable airfields. eg within 400km of the coast they now have over 1500 rated airstrips. Much harder to parallel destroy all airfields to slow down returning and repairing aircraft than it is to try and dig out rubble that's buried your hosting facilities.

Small countries like Norway, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland don't have that luxury.

Mountain and sub-terran airbases are in effect tombs - esp when current satellite and ISR tech means that any bases and access roads will be already mapped. eg small vehicles leave IR footprints in normal weather lasting days - a jet fighter, considerably more - and the ISR tech can actually map a taxi run.

finally, the fundamentals of the opening days of conflict are dedicated to parallel decapitation and dislocation of the enemies C4ISR and GBAD - then attention is focussed on the parallel destruction of logistics and the defenders air assets. Force compression is a focussed and disciplined event.

It's not 1988 anymore.
 

Abraham Gubler

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Plus to add to GF's post the best defence for an air base is not passive defence but active defence. Ground based air defence (GBAD), ballistic missile defence (BMD) and your own fighters and supporting air surveillance not to mention suppression of enemy strike systems.

The problem in the old Cold War Central Front scenario is the Soviet Union would have swamped these defences with thousands of daily strike sorties. Not even China against Taiwan can put those sorts of numbers into the air these days.

In relation to Russia and the VVS they showed in the Russo-Georgian conflict that even a small to medium but professional and modern force like Finland (63 C/D Hornets) would probably be able to defeat or severely disrupt their air offensive. The hollowness in the VVS after 20 years of slashed budgets is immense.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Since so many people are forming opinions about fighter combat aircraft effectiveness without the kind of data about the aircraft and how they are used these kind of 'debates' are pointless. There is very little open source benchmarking available, though I would direct anyone's attention to the Air War over Lebanon in 1982 to see what happens when a force with a strong advantage in situational awareness takes on one focused on platform performance. But in the interest of benchmarking I point your attention to the following open source combat effectiveness rating determined by the US GAO (national auditor) working with industry and military experts. They determined that using the F-35 as a benchmark (1.0) the F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet has 0.65, the F/A-18E/F Block I Super Hornet 0.316, the F/A-18C/D Hornet 0.193, the F-14D Tomcat 0.195 and the AV-8B Harrier 0.111. (GAO-04-900 “Force Structure Department of the Navy’s Tactical Aviation Integration Plan Is Reasonable, but Some Factors Could Affect Implementation).

Starting in reverse this shows that a high performance fighter with great speed, maneuverability but with a mix of 1970s and 1980s technology missions systems like the F-14D is twice as effective in combat as a simple bomb truck without supersonic performance like the Harrier. An aircraft with 1980s mission systems and a tweaked radar (late 80s) with high attention to versatility and high maneuverability that can fly supersonic but not very well like the F/A-18C/D is almost as effective as the F-14D. These are your basic 4th generation aircraft types. Now add in a tactically significant stealth capability like in the Block I Super Hornet and its 1.6 times as capable as the 4th gen version (C/D). Add to that an AESA and high power computers with late 1990s, early 2000s mission systems and the aircraft is 3.3 times as capable as the best thing in the air from the 4th generation (F-14D). Now have an aircraft with very high levels of stealth, data fusion, self-flying capability, high end 2010 sensors and suddenly its more than 5 times as capable.
Thanks, those figures are indeed very interesting.

Actually the F-35 "capability score" was surprisingly low; the increase from SH block 1 to SH block 2 is 100% whereas the increase from Sh block 2 to F-35 is only 50%. My (rather limited) understanding is that one important reason why the SH block II would do so well is the sophisticated EWS.

Now where will the Gripen NG fit in on that table? It will be lucky if it emerges en par with the Block II Super Hornet. So at the best it can hope for is that the F-35 will only be 1.5 times as capable.
I would not be surprised if NG in 2016 would have capabilities on the level of SH block II. People who knows more than me about this indicate so. ESW again is probably a key here.


However instead of such a Gripen NG vs F-35 comparison does it not make more sense to look at how the aircrafts would solve the missions Norway would expect them to undertake?

1. Finland is flying F-18 (not the SH but the Hornet) and they have recently declared they plan to rely on the F-18 for another 30 years. F-18 is considered adequate.

2. The Swedish airforce was not amused when they were told that they would need to operate Gripen NG if Norway buys it. The reason is that they would need to pay a lot of money for an aircraft that they do not need; the current C/D version is considered adequate for many years to come, with proper upgrades.

3. Over at worldaffairsboard a pilot pointed out that the comparisons between different Western aircraft may be interesting but "they are all superior compared to the Russian stuff". He also believed that by proper upgrading they would keep the edge for many many years to come, thus supporting the Finnish and Swedish AFs.

F-35 no doubt will be superior to Gripen; however is that superiority needed? IF 4. gen a/c are considered adequate by Finland and Sweden (who cannot rely on NATO support in case of an attack) then perhaps a boosted 4. gen aircraft will be quite adequate also for Norway for the next 30 years?

Of course that begs the question, what about the 30-50 year period? Presumably it is difficult to look that far into the future, even for experts. I do notice that some countries like Japan and South Korea have asked for (and been denied) the F-22; my understanding is that they consider F-35 inadequate for some a2a missions. If F-22 really is superior to F-35 in a2a, then one should not dismiss the possibility that Russia+India can make something that can match the F-22 and therefore be superior to the F-35.

Looking at development times and results for other recent projects it seems to me that either will PAK FA arrive "early" (within the next 20 years) and not be a match; or it may arrive "late" and could become a real problem to F-35. Depending on what Russia and India really wants to achieve with the PAK FA.

Gripen NG would of course be clubbed like a baby seal by an a/c at the F-22 level. However purchasing Gripen NG could open some new tantalizing possibilities that could be difficult to justify when purchasing F-35.


V
 

zeven

New Member
Actually, the obsession with road reventments and remote bases was dropped by most NATO nations after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.
Which countries are you refering to?

Norway and Denmark have never used that regarding their doctrine.
what i'm aware of, actually i can't remeber a singel NATO country use similar mobile roadbases like Sweden and Finland.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The Gripen is a glorified legacied F-16.

Count the number of american components in it (or more to the point, the number of technologies that aren't swedish.)
I am not sure what you mean by the "glorified legacied F-16" statement?

1. Gripen has significantly lower RCS than F-16. This is not VLO of course however my understanding is that it the reduced RCS makes some EW methods much more efficient.

2. Gripen has a very low IR signature. Nobody knows how low, however I observe that like F-35 Gripen uses fuel as coolant. People familiar with the 1st law of Thermodynamics and/or F-35 ir signature reduction techniques should appreciate what this may imply.

3. Gripen can be made ready for the next mission by 1 mechanic and 4 conscripts. In a war such robustness and ease of maintainance can be an important capability.



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