Will latest F-35 problems push Norway towards a European solution?

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I would dispute this "affiliation" with Russia which you talk about. Historically it's rather large, but in th last century Sweden and Russia have been rather cool and distant. Finland on the other hand is another story, having operated much Soviet military hardware, and with major economic ties.
 

Dalregementet

New Member
I would dispute this "affiliation" with Russia which you talk about. Historically it's rather large, but in th last century Sweden and Russia have been rather cool and distant. Finland on the other hand is another story, having operated much Soviet military hardware, and with major economic ties.
"cool and distant" is an understatement. russia is regarded as the "one and only" enemy and Swedens actions, diplomaticly and militarily, are driven by that fact. Finland is not another story - please, do read Finlands history. Who is Finlands arch enemy? Same as for Sweden and of course, intelligence is to a large degree shared.

Finland and Sweden has a very deep cooperation regarding security policy, I would even call it a joint security policy.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Perhaps, but until a little while ago Finland was sporting T-72M1, and iirc still uses Buk SAMs. ;) And if you look at the level of trade relations between the late USSR and Finland, you will notice they were quite large.
 

stigmata

New Member
The Finno-Soviet Treaty of 1948 was a result of desperation. Back then, Stalin and USA was buddies, Germany destroyed, and Sweden too small to protect them. By agreeing to the treaty, Finland leaders hoped that it would hopefully maintain Finlands independence. (No additional Invasion) They left it as fast as they could when the opportunity came (Soviet collapse)

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This is probably why all the talk of scandinavian defence cooperation.
Regardless of future US attitude/alliance/agenda, there will not be a shift in relations between Norway-Sweden-Finland
 
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Beatmaster

New Member
If you see the current situation with the JSF then it seems that buying one is still far away.
If you take into account that a Gripen/Eurofighter offers alot of aircraft for a relative low price.

The JSF, Gripen/Eurofighter are all very good aircraft that can replace almost any older type of aircraft like the F-16 for example.

The only problem is the pricetag and political chitchat, so if the JSF gets its final pricetag than the EU and other country's can start thinking about buying a few of them to replace or boost there airforces.

The Netherlands for example have a need for a good replacement of the F-16 currently the F-16 is still able to fullfill the general needs for the Netherlands and its commitments to NATO and Treathy's.

But the Dutch are shopping and looking for a good a2a/a2g platform both the EF and the Gripen have enough pluspoints to fullfill these needs ill guess.
But it seems that the Gripen have a little plus for the Dutch due its pricetag and overall performance.
They also giving the EF a second look perhaps that they rethinking there options.
I personally think that they will go for the Gripen for now.
The only way in my opinion that this is going to change is when the JSF gets its final pricetag.
And it seems that the JSF have some pluspoints over the other two aircrafts like stealth and radar systems but this might not be enough for the Dutch to acctually buy it. (keep in mind that the Dutch have invested a good amount of money to researsch and building of the JSF)
So i do not think that they will abandon the JSF completely but as others have said before the JSF will not come cheap and for the Dutch goverment this may be a reason to head to the EF or for now the Gripen.
Because now at the moment the overall costs of the JSF are already exeeding the expectations of the Dutch goverment and thats is a major issue.
I cannot speak for the EU in general because i do not know what they are planning to do but ill guess that the same problems are present.

Eventually everyone will buy a aircraft that fullfill there needs and in my opinion i think that the JSF and Gripen/Eurofighter are all a good buy (lot of aircraft plenty room for upgrades to match future technologic enchancements.

So in the end the Dollar/Euro will make the final decision ill guess:nutkick

Quote:Stigmata

This is probably why all the talk of scandinavian defence cooperation.
Regardless of future US attitude/alliance/agenda, there will not be a shift in relations between Norway-Sweden-Finland

I do think that the US/EU attitude/alliance/agenda will be even more expanded,
due the current situation worldwide and the current devolpments of new systems this will boost the overall scandinavian defence cooperation with the US and EU because they can earn a nice Dollar and fullfill the needs of EU members so there role will be expanded to meet these demands.
So in this case the Gripen may not only play a role to upgrade a certain airforce but also bring EU/and US closer together and even boost the EU/US defence/security cooperation and overall relations.
But this is just one point of view that might be not totally correct but i think that it play's a big role into the big picture.
 
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Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Nodeland positive towards Gripen

In a recent interview, the head of rNAF, Nodeland, seems surprisingly positive towards Gripen:

http://www.dagsavisen.no/innenriks/article377231.ece

Rough translation:

Swedish fighter not a problem in NATO

Norway could just as well use Swedish as U.S. combat aircraft in NATO operations, the air defense chief, who said the Swedes offer a very good aircraft.

Air Force's top commander, Major General Stein Erik Nodeland, thus reject the claim that the purchase of Swedish fighters would create trouble for Norway in NATO.

- No, there is no problem. Both Hungary and the Czech Republic flies Swedish aircraft and they are both in NATO, "said Inspector General of the Air Force to Dagsavisen.

..

Both planes have their strong and weak points. We will give our input to the government, and they have to make the decision, says Nodeland.

It has been a common belief that F-35 has had a clear lead on Gripen in Norway. Recently Gripen, made by Saab, has been included as a candidate in several other countries planning to to buy a fighter. It looks to the air defense chief a quality mark.

- JAS Gripen has some basic characteristics that many appreciate. Saab has made clear improvements with the latest version (E / F, which is the one Norway considers, editor.). The swedes also appear very orderly, "said Nodeland.

It is no secret that the Norwegian Air Force is "amerikanized". Norway has flown American fighters the last 50 years and Norwegian fighter pilots are educated in the US and Canada.

"Refering to this heritage is... well, I can understand that people do that, but still I think it is wrong. We cannot escape our history and we have made many good experiences with the Americans. But we can also think new", says Nodeland.

He warns against putting too much emphasis on clearly pro-American remarks from the very few in the rNAF that has spoken out.

"I am happy that a lot of people are participating in the evaluation, and I am absolutely certain that their recommendation will not be colored by the history", says Nodeland.

V
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
He's trying to relay that the competition is fair; there has been a number of serving and former staffers from the Norwegian AF in the Norwegian press recently who have been in favour of the F-35 not only on ground of capability, but in particular on the issue of cost of a future shared development and sustainment of a platform with a production run of less than 500 and spares guaranteed out to 2035.

Case in point from the posted article:

Når det gjelder pris, er generalmajoren opptatt av å se på de totale kostnadene for kampfly i et 30-40-årsperspektiv. Poenget er å ikke stirre seg blind på hva det koster å bare anskaffe flyene, men å se på drift og oppgraderinger gjennom flyenes levetid på 30-40 år. Det henger også sammen med det siste punktet om samarbeidsforhold.

As far as cost is concerned, the Major General is looking at the total cost of the combat jets in an 30-40 year perspective. The point is not only to look at the acquisition cost, but also the cost of using the aircraft, as well as upgrading it over its lifetime of 30-40 years. The last point is also an issue of "working relationships."

In short, Saab has not guaranteed supply of spares and further development - it cannot. Thus the Swedish Govt does this - but only for the first 20 years. And the total number of Gripen NGs are not going to be that great - there are hidden costs to the Gripen NG here. ;)
 
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zeven

New Member
He's trying to relay that the competition is fair; there has been a number of serving and former staffers from the Norwegian AF in the Norwegian press recently who have been in favour of the F-35 not only on ground of capability, but in particular on the issue of cost of a future shared development and sustainment of a platform with a production run of less than 500 and spares guaranteed out to 2035.

Case in point from the posted article:

Når det gjelder pris, er generalmajoren opptatt av å se på de totale kostnadene for kampfly i et 30-40-årsperspektiv. Poenget er å ikke stirre seg blind på hva det koster å bare anskaffe flyene, men å se på drift og oppgraderinger gjennom flyenes levetid på 30-40 år. Det henger også sammen med det siste punktet om samarbeidsforhold.

As far as cost is concerned, the Major General is looking at the total cost of the combat jets in an 30-40 year perspective. The point is not only to look at the acquisition cost, but also the cost of using the aircraft, as well as upgrading it over its lifetime of 30-40 years. The last point is also an issue of "working relationships."

In short, Saab has not guaranteed supply of spares and further development - it cannot. Thus the Swedish Govt does this - but only for the first 20 years. And the total number of Gripen NGs are not going to be that great - there are hidden costs to the Gripen NG here. ;)
hey Grand, first i want to ask if the rumour is true, that Dansih pilots prefer F-18 over F-35?? ?

second
SAAB can gurantee spare parts. a security of supply agreement is signed between Sweden and new gripen customers.

SAAB is after less than 10 per cent of the market ( around 1000 platforms) a decent goal according to the wide interests in the platform lately.

atm its already more platforms out there than first expected thanks to some exports, and the uppgrading and futher developement of the gripen platform does not seperate Gripen C and NG so upgrade costs for NG will be shared by existing customers afterall current customers will benefit from the demostrator and new developements aimed for NG.

and SAAB does not need to prove anything when it comes to cost management.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
hey Grand, first i want to ask if the rumour is true, that Dansih pilots prefer F-18 over F-35?? ?
Haven't heard that. So don't know if true or not.

second
SAAB can gurantee spare parts. a security of supply agreement is signed between Sweden and new gripen customers.
No they can't - and they have explicitly said so publicly, see earlier in the thread. However, the Swedish govt can issue such a guarantee and it also guarantees that Sweden will not impose sanctions on spares and support if Norways goes to war - even illegal wars. :D That guarantee runs for 20 years...


SAAB is after less than 10 per cent of the market ( around 1000 platforms) a decent goal according to the wide interests in the platform lately.

atm its already more platforms out there than first expected thanks to some exports, and the uppgrading and futher developement of the gripen platform does not seperate Gripen C and NG so upgrade costs for NG will be shared by existing customers afterall current customers will benefit from the demostrator and new developements aimed for NG.
IIRC it will be around half of the existing SWAF C/D's which will have E/F avionics... So you're looking for about 400-450 exports.

and SAAB does not need to prove anything when it comes to cost management.
That was not the point - the point was that unique customer reqs can be expensive and cost is a big unknown post 2035.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
He's trying to relay that the competition is fair; there has been a number of serving and former staffers from the Norwegian AF in the Norwegian press recently who has been in favour of the F-35 not only on capability, but in particular on the issue of the cost on a future shared development and sustainment of a platform with a production run of less than 500 and spares guaranteed out to 2035.

Case in point from the posted article:

Når det gjelder pris, er generalmajoren opptatt av å se på de totale kostnadene for kampfly i et 30-40-årsperspektiv. Poenget er å ikke stirre seg blind på hva det koster å bare anskaffe flyene, men å se på drift og oppgraderinger gjennom flyenes levetid på 30-40 år. Det henger også sammen med det siste punktet om samarbeidsforhold.

As far as cost is concerned, the Major General is looking at the total cost of the combat jets in an 30-40 year perspective. The point is not only to look at the acquisition cost, but also the cost of using the aircraft, as well as upgrading it over its lifetime of 30-40 years. The last point is also an issue of "working relationships."

In short, Saab has not guaranteed supply of spares and further development - it cannot. Thus the Swedish Govt does this - but only for the first 20 years. And the total number of Gripen NGs are not going to be that great - there are hidden costs to the Gripen NG here. ;)
To a non-expert like me, after reading a lot on this forum and also other places I would have thought that capabilities would be one very important differentiator between the two air crafts. Nodeland does not indicate that one has more or better capabilities than the other, instead he says that they both have their weak and strong points and that the new Gripen is a significantly enhanced version with "basic capabilities that a lot of people appreciate". He makes no similar statements about F-35. I am surprised if it turns out that costs and not capabilities will become the main differentiatior?

With regards to the "hidden costs"; it is definitely something to consider however this may not be as bad as it seems. The first 20 years seems to become significantly cheaper for Gripen than F-35; presumably Gripen would also use much less fuel in most situations than F-35? Furthermore the geography would allow Norway to outsource a lot of the maintainance to Sweden, at much lower cost.

It seems the costs for upgrading Gripen since the early A/B days have been surprisingly low. Also, many of the components for Gripen NG will be offered to C/D customers as an MLU; after an MLU Gripen C/D will have quite a lot in common with the NG, and upgrades after that point will be common between C/D and NG platform, thus presumably costs will be shared between all NG and C/D users.

Some components will be unique to NG (possibly landing gear, internal fuel tank, air inlets) however I don't expect those to cause much upgrade costs? Perhaps the F414 engine will remain an NG specific component, however the F414 is shared with Super Hornet users.



V
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
To a non-expert like me, after reading a lot on this forum and also other places I would have thought that capabilities would be one very important differentiator between the two air crafts. Nodeland does not indicate that one has more or better capabilities than the other, instead he says that they both have their weak and strong points and that the new Gripen is a significantly enhanced version with "basic capabilities that a lot of people appreciate". He makes no similar statements about F-35. I am surprised if it turns out that costs and not capabilities will become the main differentiatior?
There are probably at least 5 "differentiators". Cost is only one. Nodeland is very diplomatic and careful about what he says. He does not indicate what choice they're going to recommend from a military professional POV.

With regards to the "hidden costs"; it is definitely something to consider however this may not be as bad as it seems. The first 20 years seems to become significantly cheaper for Gripen than F-35; presumably Gripen would also use much less fuel in most situations than F-35? Furthermore the geography would allow Norway to outsource a lot of the maintainance to Sweden, at much lower cost.
1) There are of course also extra costs attached to F-35 like the cost of hedging exchange rates - normally the buyer would pay tis insurance premium, however I'm a bit confused if this is actually the case for the JSF (i.e. LM is untertaking the risk of currency variations - which is unusual).

It seems the costs for upgrading Gripen since the early A/B days have been surprisingly low. Also, many of the components for Gripen NG will be offered to C/D customers as an MLU; after an MLU Gripen C/D will have quite a lot in common with the NG, and upgrades after that point will be common between C/D and NG platform, thus presumably costs will be shared between all NG and C/D users.
Avionics and engine will differ from the C/D. Those typically account for 70% plus of the fly-away cost on "4.5 gen jets". Interchangable aerostructures - less than 30%.

Some components will be unique to NG (possibly landing gear, internal fuel tank, air inlets) however I don't expect those to cause much upgrade costs? Perhaps the F414 engine will remain an NG specific component, however the F414 is shared with Super Hornet users.

V
Like 70% of the value of the aircraft.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
My female intuition tells me there are more hidden costs to the JSF here ;)
I don't expect the F-35 to stay on target on fly-away cost, but I don't expect it to slide that much either.

Cost of the F-35 has been discussed ad nauseam. Nodeland is just pointing out that life cycle cost is a lot more complex than 24 bn NOK for 20 years of Swedish jets.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Avionics and engine will differ from the C/D. Those typically account for 70% plus of the fly-away cost on "4.5 gen jets". Interchangable aerostructures - less than 30%.
So you don't expect current C/D users to do an MLU some time around 2015-2020 or so? And don't you think Saab would then simply offer the C/D users to upgrade to NG avionics, instead of developing a separate upgrade path for the C/D users?

Are you not a bit surprised by the speed of the development of the "Gripen Demo" air craft? My understanding was that many of the "NG" bits and pieces are simply from the already planned C/D upgrade path; just somewhat accelerated, compressed* and slightly extended**.

Re. the engine: why can't the NG users share most of the F414 upgrade costs with the other F414 users, like Super Hornet users, etc ?


V

* = in time; ** = in scope/capabilities -- sorry about the confusing language
 
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stigmata

New Member
I most definitely think just about every Gripen operator will upgrade to AESA, needed or not.
I AM surprised, impressed even, by the speed of the development of the "Gripen Demo" aircraft!. Frankly, i never held the original Gripen in a high of regard, -due to limited range and questionable supercruise capability.
 

SkolZkiy

New Member
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Please read the rules.

In addition, please note that we expect people to make or pass appropriate levels of comment when posting. Asking others for an opinion does not constitute the same spirit of intent required
 
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Dalregementet

New Member
More problems for F35

I know that there is a separate discussion going on regarding the noise level for F35 but I think that it is appropriate to discuss it on this thread since the issue now has been identified by norvegian media.

In the newspaper "Dagsavisen", they state that 3100 houses will have to be evacuated around the air bases Bodø, Ørland and Evenes and another 2900 houses will have to have extra sound insulated protection - the cost will be in excess of 9.2 billion NOK. Besides the cost issue, it is of course highly unpopular to have to evict people due to a fighters engine noise. If the LM sales people can take this order, then I'm impressed.

http://www.dagsavisen.no/innenriks/article377420.ece
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
In the newspaper "Dagsavisen", they state that 3100 houses will have to be evacuated around the air bases Bodø, Ørland and Evenes and another 2900 houses will have to have extra sound insulated protection - the cost will be in excess of 9.2 billion NOK. Besides the cost issue, it is of course highly unpopular to have to evict people due to a fighters engine noise. If the LM sales people can take this order, then I'm impressed.

http://www.dagsavisen.no/innenriks/article377420.ece
I don't remember reading that in the SINTEF report of Dec last year - where did they get this from?

Btw, could the link to the report possibly be posted again? I can't seem to find it.
 

stigmata

New Member
Do you mean this site

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blog...79a7Post:03674e89-242f-44ea-924c-ed659a5be8d8

Second is the environmental impact of this huge increase in flying at Eglin. And here it gets interesting, because the EIS is based on limited noise measurements with the first F-35A, aircraft AA-1, which show the single-engined aircraft to be significantly louder than the twin-engined F-15C. Maximum sound levels under the flight track of an aircraft flying at 500 ft. are 131 dB. for the F-35A, 114 dB. for the F-15C and 104 dB. for the F-16C. Calculated sound exposure levels at a distance of 1,000 ft. are on takeoff 121 dB. for the F-35A and 112 dB. for the F-15C, and on approach 108 dB. for the F-35A and 89 dB. for the F-15C.
 
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