gf0012-aust:
Seems like RAND had to apologize to LM. But was the slipped quote ("clubbed like baby seals...") inaqurate? The RAND presentation is official, I think you all have read it, but if not, here is the link:
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/files/2008_RAND_Pacific_View_Air_Combat_Briefing.pdf
The discussed war game concentrates around quantity, not so much quality. US-China engagement at Taiwan Strait in year 2020. F-35 (et al) vs. Chinese Flankers. In this scenario the F-35s AMRAAMs have a Pk 1.0, and the Flankers have a Pk 0.00. With a much larger number of Chinese Flankers, with many more AMRAAMs than the Blue forces, the result is that when all Blue forces AAMs are off, there will still be a number of Flankers in the air with remaining AAMs (and guns). Now what will that lead to? According to Power Point page #75-80, the Blue forces have closed in to WVR and with no more AAMs left, the (F-35s) "Can't (out)turn, can't (out)climb, can't (out)run" the Flankers... Maybe someone slipped the Clubbed like baby seals comment regarding to this scenario... Now if the F-35s would have had external weapons, the war game would have been tilted towards the blue forces since the F-35s still would have "seen first, shoot first" (as would have the Gripen NG, with smaller radar profile, at least equal AESA, and about equal number of METEORS, as compared to Flankers, and in the graph the Gripen NG would be positioned at the same area as the Typhoon, thus more probable to survive in WVR, and with missiles off, better than Typhoon in the graph, since the graph shows 50%fuel + full AA load). So the "clubbed like baby seals" was not fake, but it must be analyzed in the correct context. The wargame could have been very different with other parameters, but in this one they would be clubbed. I think Mr Burbage did not like how this were interpreted in the mainstream media. Even though, he was wrong in denying the result, in my opinion.
I think the quality through quantity will be viable even in the future(2020).
I think that one should not be to confident in the LO trump card in the future.
I think that the BVR missiles maybe might miss the target some times, no matter what the corporate PR statements says. Can you trust the BVR superiority if the missiles don't hit the target?
And I think I need another Singha Beer. Was at the Changi Air Base in Singapore a couple of weeks ago when in for the Formula1 race, unfortunately I had no time for bird watching.