Will latest F-35 problems push Norway towards a European solution?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Waterfestival93,

There is not much that suggests that the F-35 will significantly go over budget. As LM rebutted, only a small fraction of the current programme cost overruns stem from programmetic problems. I did a costing on the back on an envelope back in 2006 when 500 jets was cut from the programme to get an idea on what influence it would have on programme unit cost. I found at that that time that two-thirds of the increase in unit cost was due to cut in numbers and most of the rest was externally forced. Since then programme costs have been reduced by 1 bn USD and numbers of airframes have been cut by 6.

This is exactly what LM says in their rebuttal. (Which is one of the reasons I was pleased: LM has found the same.) Trying to stick the "cost overrun" label to the JSF is not correct.

Conclusion: there is not much to suggest that cost projections will derail unless external forces have a significant impact. The programme itself is tightly managed.

Further, the USAF costings, the cost given by LM in interviews and the quotations for Norway and Denmark do not conflict in their prices. They are what should be expected.

Conclusion: LM/F-35 quotations for Denmark and Norway are consistent with what USAF is going to pay for their jets.

* * *​

If you read this thread it is a 95% defensive thread on the account of the F-35. The F-35 is being scrutinized and critizised from every corner; on cost, on capability. There is a rare critique of the Gripen. But how about applying the same metrics to the gripen?

The reason why it is possible to discuss the F-35 at all, is because the US Government is so open as it is - you can get your hands on most of the information you need. You cannot do this on the Gripen - yes there are some numbers out, but not enough to do a fairly reliable estimate. And you will not know what a Gripen NG will cost the Swedish taxpayer. SAAB has guaranteed prices for Denmark and Norway; who will pick up the tab if this does not stick? The Swedish government has promised Norway that it will introduce a significant number of NGs into the Swedish Air Force if Norway picks the Gripen NG. The cash-starved Swedish defence will have to pick up that tab.

Further on cost: If you don't understand how the F-35 can be so cheap, here's the story: Subcontractors and assembly lines operate at the lower limit of viable efficiencies at 20-22 jets a year. The Gripen are built at a rate of 15! The Gripen is helped out here by using much COTS/MOTS reducing the effect on the subcontractors. E.g. the Rafale is currently suffering from a sticker chock from the fact that only 12 leaves the line a year. Skills and infrastructure has to be retained no matter what quantity a product is being built in. And additional economies of scale are hard to achieve at low rates. A stark contrast is that next year the number of F-35 built will be 14 - and that's in LRIP production!!!

In contrast the F-35 is going to be built at rates of 200++ a year. And not only that, but the total quantity is so large, that there is a significant payoff in spending RD&T dollars in optimizing the design and production infrastructure for further production efficiencies.

Perhaps it is time to leave illusion behind that because a product uses cheaper, derisked, available technology it has to be significantly cheaper than a product that has sheer mass of numbers behind it, and multiple levels of efficiencies.

Add to that, what is available as MOTS to SAAB is different from what is availbale as MOTS to the JSF programme - think of the leveraged technology of the F-22A flowing into the JSF and vice versa.

Risk. The F-35 test flight programme is advancing slowly, but as LM said, there will be 19 + 1 prototypes around in 18 months. As I understand it, SAAB is relying on a single testbed for their entire programme. Different kind of risk management. But who manages it better? If nothing happens to the testbed or no major technical obstacle occur on the Gripen Demo - then SAAB will have taken a clever approach. But it tells nothing on the progress of the F-35. The only remaining risk I see in the JSF programme is really if the economies of scale are realised to its full extent at the production line.

With regard to wing loading - see attachment.

And that beer sounds nice - and it would be fun to look back at these fighter acquisition discussions in retrospect. ;)

Cheers
I don't have much to add to this discussion (you guys are covering the lot pretty well), but i just wanted to say great post!
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The Norwegian center-left government says that there are two main factors they consider: 1) capabilities of the plane and 2) industrial offset package (of course the LM deal is not a regual offset package but the effect is the same).

State secretary Espen Barth Eide:

http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/fd/dep/politisk_ledelse/Statssekretar_Espen_Barth_Eide/taler_artikler/2008/kronikk-om-kampfly-aftenposten-aug08.html?id=522452

Dette dreier seg ikke om ”militære krav versus industri”, som noen synes å mene. La meg slå kategorisk fast at det er helt uaktuelt å kjøpe et fly som ikke gir betydelige strategiske industripolitiske ringvirkninger.
...
Nøyaktig like uaktuelt er det naturligvis å kjøpe et fly som militært sett er klart dårligere enn konkurrenten, for å få en del arbeidsplasser i bytte. Kampflykjøpet handler først og fremst om å kjøpe kampfly til Forsvaret. Samtidig er det en stor, nasjonal satsing.
my rough translation:
This is not about "military requirements vs industry" as some people seem to believe. Let me state clearly that it is out of the question to buy a plane that does not give significant strategic industrial side effects.

It is equally out of the question to buy a plane that from a military point of view is clearly inferior to the competitor in order to create new jobs. The procrurement is first and foremost about buying planes for the Defence. At the same time it is a huge national commitment.
He ends by stating:

Uansett valg skal dette være et valg forankret i fremtidens behov, ikke i tradisjoner og forestillinger formet av forrige århundre.
No matter the choice it will be a choice with a foundation in the requirements of the future, and not traditions and perceptions shaped by the last century.
The "tradition" in Norway has of course been to buy American planes.

The fact that LM has actually offered Norway as good (or slightly better?) "offsets package" to tier-3 partner Norway compared to tier-2 partner Holland is to me a clear indication that LM considers the Norwegian competition a real competition.

The Saab offset package to Norway is currently at 50 billion NOK, of which approx. 21 billion is in the Defence sector; LM has promised "more than 20 billion NOK" in deals if Norway buys F-35. So if you consider defence industry only the deals seem roughly equal, but when you add the other stuff Saab has the best industrial offset package.

So if we are to believe the State Secretary, Saab will probably win in Norway unless Gripen is "clearly inferior" to F-35 (in the context of Norway's defence requirements).

This article contains a lot of other interesting stuff, for instance he makes it clear that the main aim is to buy a plane to cover Norways needs, and not to participate in expeditionary forces; it is considered an extra bonus if the plane Norway buys is suitable to be used in coalition work abroad, and not an essential requirement.


V
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
I'm going to cut straight to my own conclusions before Vivendi pre-empts me. ;)

I am of the impression that it is really down to capability/cost and offsets. And a genuine competition.

I'm not buying that a potential "Nordic Alliance" has any influence, just as I am not buying that Norway will lose goodwill with the Americans if they go with Gripen NG.

I have also noted that the expeditionary element has been downplayed a great deal lately; to me it can be attributed to one of two reasons:

  1. Norway is genuinely considering dropping out of EEAW and focus entirely on territorial defence. (The Gripen wouldn't fit into the EEAW concept.)
  2. It's a branding issue. The expeditionary capability is being played down, as it is in some corners seen as buying into American adventurism.

I have no gauge on what offset concept is most attractive to Norway. I'll just comment on Dalregement and say that I think you put too much emphasis on "hard technology" in what is already a sophisticated country.

The Nordic political stuff - later. :p
 
Last edited:

F-15 Eagle

New Member
The US has already reduced costs on health care considerably the last few years; for sure more cuts are to come. However there are limits to how much you can cut on health care in a democratic country. Therefore US defence will face some massive cuts in the very near future. It's anybodys guess which programs will go and which will be scaled back. I agree that the F-35 program is too important to be eliminated; however if I am right then we will see an overall smaller US military machine in the future; this implies also fewer F-35s than what LM and USAF currently got in their plans.

How many F-35 will be cut? Nobody can tell today, in particular since we do not know if the US economy has reached the bottom or is still going down-hill.


V
Huh? So what is the U.S. going to go from a superpower to a smaller military power. Are they going to cut 1 million personal from the armed forces? Maybe they will reduce the defense budget from $500 billion to just $20 billion....:rolleyes:

Just kidding there wont be any defense cuts....well no major "end of the defense industry cuts" but maybe a few small cuts here and there but nothing serious. Regardless of the U.S. economy its just not possible to cut the military budget. Look you have an overstretched military with weapons and equipment wearing out in all of the branches and they will need the F-35 in large numbers to replace the F-15/16/18 and A-10/AV-8 combat aircraft. Their just too old to not buy the F-35 plus keep in mind that the U.S. faces threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea and so on....
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Huh? So what is the U.S. going to go from a superpower to a smaller military power. Are they going to cut 1 million personal from the armed forces? Maybe they will reduce the defense budget from $500 billion to just $20 billion....:rolleyes:

Just kidding there wont be any defense cuts....well no major "end of the defense industry cuts" but maybe a few small cuts here and there but nothing serious. Regardless of the U.S. economy its just not possible to cut the military budget. Look you have an overstretched military with weapons and equipment wearing out in all of the branches and they will need the F-35 in large numbers to replace the F-15/16/18 and A-10/AV-8 combat aircraft. Their just too old to not buy the F-35 plus keep in mind that the U.S. faces threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea and so on....
I certainly did not suggest such a large cut. However I do believe there will be cuts large enough to be painful to the US military. Watch the news. The US economy is not very strong at the moment and unfortunately I don't think we've hit bottom just yet. Since the cuts will come at a time when the US needs to replace a lot of equipment my guess is that there will be less equipment in the future. GD convinced me however that the cuts most likely will not affect the cost of the F-35 to any degree, and that's what really brought this whole issue into this thread in the first place.



V
 

Dalregementet

New Member
To these countries the type of offset package SAAB offers is very lucrative. More so than in the case of more highly developed nations like DK, N and Holland.



They diversify their sources of defence equipment. And they can afford to.



I don't think I'd make a good LM employee - not that fond of Powerpoints.



The JSF programme doesn't use offsets - it uses possibilty to bid on contracts based on best value - though there is an undercurrent of offsets in it.

Note to all: I think both LM and SAAB will deliver product as promised, and I also believe Gripen NG will snatch at least the Swiss contract. Coupled with a small production run for the Swedish Air Force it should be a fairly efficient run, a good basis for the other bids. If the same "Doom & Gloom" metric which is applied to the JSF is applied to the Gripen, it seems that the programmatic risk and uncertainty on cost is greater for the Gripen programme - which is why the Swedish Government has stepped in to mitigate that risk and uncertainty as seen from a customer perspective.

I'm the bad cop. ;)
I'm going to cut straight to my own conclusions before Vivendi pre-empts me. ;)

I am of the impression that it is really down to capability/cost and offsets. And a genuine competition.

I'm not buying that a potential "Nordic Alliance" has any influence, just as I am not buying that Norway will lose goodwill with the Americans if they go with Gripen NG.

I have also noted that the expeditionary element has been downplayed a great deal lately; to me it can be attributed to one of two reasons:

  1. Norway is genuinely considering dropping out of EEAW and focus entirely on territorial defence. (The Gripen wouldn't fit into the EEAW concept.)
  2. It's a branding issue. The expeditionary capability is being played down, as it is in some corners seen as buying into American adventurism.

I have no gauge on what offset concept is most attractive to Norway. I'll just comment on Dalregement and say that I think you put too much emphasis on "hard technology" in what is already a sophisticated country.

The Nordic political stuff - later. :p
I agree that Norway is a "sophistcated" contry but their technologies doesn´t get traction since most of the indigenous Norwegian technology lack channels to the world market. Norway needs help with creating channels to market and "how to build business". Saab is "best in class" in this respect. At this very moment, a large number of Saab/Investor business developers are active in Norway. Saab/Investor have already invested a great deal in Norway and more is in pipeline. A few examples - Saab/Investor has aquired a stake in Aker Kvaerner, Saab and Statoil have set up new businesses that work with state of the art technologies - CEO's from Saab/Investor.

Regarding Norways oil & gas technologies, here Norway can´t do that much more - they are allready a world leader in this area.

As for Norcic cooperation, this will continue and deepens and I don´t see either Nato or the EU as an obstacle in that respect. The question is what this will lead to and for me it´s clear that Sweden and Finland will join Nato - the question is just when. During the 70s and 80s, the Swedish social democrats were officially aganist Sweden joining the European Community/European Union. When Sweden ran into economical promlems in early the 90s, the Swedish social democrats launched an economical crisis package. A membership application to the European Community was on the action list but at the very end of the list. What do I want to say with that? The swedish social democrats can make an u-turn in the Nato discussion depending on how the situation in nothern Europe develops - it's just a matter of timing and how to "package" this to the public. Sweden have always had a deep cooperation with Nato, this always with the consent of the Swedish social democrats.
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
You could use the same arguments when trying to sell F16 to Hungary, Czechia and Thailand - they didn´t choose a US fighter aircraft nor did Saudi Arabia...
Er, since when is the F-16 not an American aircraft? :confused:

Thailand DID in fact choose the F-16. They fly 3 Squadrons of them... :p:

The 6x Gripen aircraft they have chosen (and which are NOT assured of actually entering service, Politicians are already calling for the contract to be terminated within Thailand) are designed to replace older F-5 Tiger II aircraft, which BTW are also American...

Saudia Arabia flies the F-15 as it's main combat aircraft... Who made that again?

The JSF sales team should enrole you, your argumentation is convincing! ;) However thera are more factors than the ones you listed and I don´t think that Norway has any doubts that Saab/Sweden will deliver the promise :D . Also, LM reputation when it comes to offset business is not the best :).
Yeah. Merely selling 4000+ F-16's shows that L-M OBVIOUSLY doesn't know what it's doing in the fighter market, doesn't it?

Sheesh... :nutkick

Btw, would you like to compare orders for the Gripen to the F-16 over the last 5 years?

It's not flattering for the "Swedish" project I can assure you...
 

energo

Member
I agree that Norway is a "sophistcated" contry but their technologies doesn´t get traction since most of the indigenous Norwegian technology lack channels to the world market. Norway needs help with creating channels to market and "how to build business". Saab is "best in class" in this respect. At this very moment, a large number of Saab/Investor business developers are active in Norway. Saab/Investor have already invested a great deal in Norway and more is in pipeline. A few examples - Saab/Investor has aquired a stake in Aker Kvaerner, Saab and Statoil have set up new businesses that work with state of the art technologies - CEO's from Saab/Investor.
Some very good observations there. The resent pit by SAAB towards the local politicians here is possibly a tactic to gain more wide spread support for the Gripen. However, the US arms market is by far the largest in the world. A nordic solution has no way of touching this potential, though it could - of course - still provide a considerable boost to the branches here. Thus it's no suprise that the already established defence contractors here, like KDA, is looking towards the americans and F-35 as a gateway to this vast market.


Regards,
B. Bolsøy
Oslo
 

Dalregementet

New Member
Er, since when is the F-16 not an American aircraft? :confused:

Thailand DID in fact choose the F-16. They fly 3 Squadrons of them... :p:

The 6x Gripen aircraft they have chosen (and which are NOT assured of actually entering service, Politicians are already calling for the contract to be terminated within Thailand) are designed to replace older F-5 Tiger II aircraft, which BTW are also American...

Saudia Arabia flies the F-15 as it's main combat aircraft... Who made that again?



Yeah. Merely selling 4000+ F-16's shows that L-M OBVIOUSLY doesn't know what it's doing in the fighter market, doesn't it?

Sheesh... :nutkick

Btw, would you like to compare orders for the Gripen to the F-16 over the last 5 years?

It's not flattering for the "Swedish" project I can assure you...
It was not my intention to confuse you. I was adressing the argumentation, high volymes/low unit cost etc and for that also F16 fits in nicely. I think that is obvious if you look on the post I´m responding to :rolleyes:. Regarding Thailand, I'm referring to the latest sales, not all historical sales to Thailand, and in the latest contest Gripen won. :nutkick If Thaksins old guard want to change fighter, it would probably be to a russian built - better kickback there...

No one have questioned the origins of F16 and F5 - great aircrafts for their time.

F15 - of course Saudi Arabia is flying them but their latest purchases was Eurofighter. I haven´t heard that Saudi opts for F35s, do you?

Of course, LM old record is impressive, but it´s old. I don´t think that LM will fail in developing F35 to a very good air aircraft. What i'm questioning is people who thinks "stealth" makes all current aircraft obsolete and that all Nato countries have to have it in order to participate in joint operations. Sorry!
 

Dalregementet

New Member
Some very good observations there. The resent pit by SAAB towards the local politicians here is possibly a tactic to gain more wide spread support for the Gripen. However, the US arms market is by far the largest in the world. A nordic solution has no way of touching this potential, though it could - of course - still provide a considerable boost to the branches here. Thus it's no suprise that the already established defence contractors here, like KDA, is looking towards the americans and F-35 as a gateway to this vast market.


Regards,
B. Bolsøy
Oslo
Even though a considerable part of the offset is related to weapons technology the main part of the offset that Saab offers is in the civilan market. I think that Norway is more interested in that market than the market that F35 "offset" deal offers.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/09/18/316160/new-usaf-leadership-reconsiders-procurement-decisions.html

However, there is an alternative to filling all capability gaps with new-generation equipment. In the case of fighters, one approach being discussed is for the USAF to continue buying some F-22s and abolish or drastically reduce purchases of the F-35A - using conventional fighters such as the F-15 and F-16 as a replacement.
Has also Flightglobal.com joined the anti-F35 crowd? or what?

I start to wonder if there are any un-biased aviation reporters left? Or perhaps I was naive in believing there were some in the first place.


Vivendi
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/09/18/316160/new-usaf-leadership-reconsiders-procurement-decisions.html



Has also Flightglobal.com joined the anti-F35 crowd? or what?

I start to wonder if there are any un-biased aviation reporters left? Or perhaps I was naive in believing there were some in the first place.


Vivendi
I don't think this is biased - they're just presenting various scenarios that are being tossed around.

But it's funny that some would consider buying F-15s to replace F-35. F-15s are both more expensive to buy and run than the F-35. And the F-16 is only somewhat cheaper and close to the end of its development curve. So not a very future oriented choice.

My guess is that we'll see another 3 year MYP of 60 F-22A dovetailing into the ramping up to FRP of the F-35.
 

F-15 Eagle

New Member
I don't think this is biased - they're just presenting various scenarios that are being tossed around.

But it's funny that some would consider buying F-15s to replace F-35. F-15s are both more expensive to buy and run than the F-35. And the F-16 is only somewhat cheaper and close to the end of its development curve. So not a very future oriented choice.

My guess is that we'll see another 3 year MYP of 60 F-22A dovetailing into the ramping up to FRP of the F-35.
Wow not only is it more expensive but the F-15 is a 30 year old design and the F-35 is far more capable than the F-15.

Of course their only scenarios but its not likely any one of them will ever happen. It would be nice to see another 60 F-22s which is very possible.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
What i'm questioning is people who thinks "stealth" makes all current aircraft obsolete and that all Nato countries have to have it in order to participate in joint operations. Sorry!
What you're focusing on here is mission planning and doctrine. Interoperability and "deployability" isn't really defined in those terms alone but hwo the entire concept works at a systems level. Here is how the EEAW works, from Cold Response 2007:


Exercise Cold Response 2007 was held in Norway from March 7 to March 16. It was what the Norwegians call an invitational exercise – intended mainly for the Norwegian military but with other nations permitted to join. This year, a total of 8500 personnel took part with major foreign participation in the air and special forces aspects of the exercise. The whole exercise followed a scenario based on the Kosovo campaign. Ground forces were sent to bring peace to a troubled province and push out an aggressive foe. The area to be “liberated” in this peacekeeping scenario was located around the airfield of Bardufoss, well above the Artic Circle.

A large multination Air Force, the EPAF Expeditionary Air Wing (EEAW), was assembled well south of the area of operations, at Bodø airbase. The EPAF, or European Participation Air Forces, include the four nations that together bought the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon in the 1970s – the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway and Denmark – and Portugal, who acquired F-16s later on. This was the first time ever that the five EPAF nations had flown together. Several of the countries had linked up before during operations, for instance in Afghanistan, but never more than three nations at a time.

Each of the EPAF countries sent five F-16s for the exercise, four to fly and one spare. Norway, being the host nation, joined with six aircraft and two spares. All the pilots (twelve from each nation), were veterans and had international experience as well. Germany supported the EEAW with a contingent of three C.160 Transall transport aircraft led, appropriately, by a British exchange pilot.

Bodø is Norway’s main F-16 base with two squadrons stationed. That meant that the visiting countries did not have to bring any support equipment as everything was at hand.

The detachment commander of the EEAW was Belgian Lieutenant-Colonel Alex “Rooster” Roose, the commanding officer of of 350 Squadron, Belgian Air Force. He explained the whole operation. “The participants in the EEAW have only minor differences in capability and training. There is a high level of commonality. This exercise is meant to show that five small nations can do the same as one lead nation (the United States, GvO). With this commitment we can sustain six aircraft in an operation for three years.” [He's referring to the Belgian commitment. /GD]

All the EPAF F-16’s are in the MLU M4 configuration
, meaning they have undergone the Mid-Life Upgrade and received the M4 software with Link 16 capability. Together with a NATO AWACS flying from Urland, Lt-Col Roose commented, EPAF forces have “never had such a complete picture.”

Having so many nations working together would normally create problems, but not here. Within EPAF the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) are pretty much the same for all nations. The only major differences lie in the safety margins used by the different air forces.

When I spoke to Alex in the second week, he proclaimed, “After five days of operations, things are really running smoothly!” So as not make things any more complicated than they needed to be, the flying entities stayed national – except for a few exchange officers, all the aircraft and pilots in a four-ship formation would be from one country.

The role of mission commander rotated between the nations every day. After the orders came in, there was a multinational brainstorm after which the national element leaders went away to do their planning. Every hour, all the leaders came together for updates.

In the first week, the wing flew day sorties and Combined Air Operations (COMAOs). In the second week the wing also flew COMAOs during night missions. And it was busy, with 26 jets flying two sorties a day. The ongoing process of planning and flying kept both pilots and ground crews occupied.

The maintenance side of the operation was under the command of Norwegian Captain Tommy Myrvoll. All 270 maintenance personnel were pooled and worked from the specialty shops on the base. Each country brought only their own “fly-away kit” for the aircraft. Everything was shared. When an aircraft needed servicing, Myrvoll only needed to look at the speciality of the personnel, not which country they were from. That way a Dutch aircraft could be repaired by a Portugese and Norwegian maintenance crew, for instance. Signing off on the maintenance still had to be done by a member of the crew from the aircraft’s own country.

At Bodø the Norwegians put the MOC (Maintenance Operations Centre) in deployable containers. Here the international crew gained experience in working in less than perfect conditions. Serviceability levels were around ninety percent for the exercise.

All in all, ground and flight crews had the opportunity to work with international colleagues, much like they would (and are already doing) on operations around the world. The pilots got to train in a reasonable hostile environment due to the weather conditions. The pilots also had the opportunity to work with special forces, which also made up a large part of Cold Response 2007. The presence of a large live-fire range added to the realism of this exercise.

http://www.fencecheck.com/news/Cold_Response_2007/

***

Now imagine one nation showing up with Gripens.

(IIRC EEAW is capable of deploying 32 F-16 on 5-7 days notice and a further 24-32 in another 3-4 weeks.)
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
It was not my intention to confuse you. I was adressing the argumentation, high volymes/low unit cost etc and for that also F16 fits in nicely. I think that is obvious if you look on the post I´m responding to :rolleyes:. Regarding Thailand, I'm referring to the latest sales, not all historical sales to Thailand, and in the latest contest Gripen won. :nutkick If Thaksins old guard want to change fighter, it would probably be to a russian built - better kickback there...

No one have questioned the origins of F16 and F5 - great aircrafts for their time.

F15 - of course Saudi Arabia is flying them but their latest purchases was Eurofighter. I haven´t heard that Saudi opts for F35s, do you?

Of course, LM old record is impressive, but it´s old. I don´t think that LM will fail in developing F35 to a very good air aircraft. What i'm questioning is people who thinks "stealth" makes all current aircraft obsolete and that all Nato countries have to have it in order to participate in joint operations. Sorry!
Okay...

I'm not sure what RSAF's acquisition of the Typhoon has to do with the Gripen or F-35 for that matter?

A lot of people around the various forums seem to think that if a Country hasn't signed up under the JSF SDD phase, that equates to them being unable to acquire the aircraft...

As to L-M, well in the last few years, it has sold 24x new build F-16's to Morocco, 18x new-builds to Pakistan, 48x new-builds to Poland and 80x new-builds to UAE, 12x new-builds to Chile and the aircraft is still competing for contracts around the world.

That's 182 new-build airframes off the top of my head. I'm not even counting Israel, Greece, Turkey or Japan's F-2 here.

Gripen has never achieved this number of export sales over it's entire project life. If L-M can do this with an "old" aircraft like the F-16, fighter manufacturers had better look out when it has an in-service 5th Generation "stealth" fighter it CAN actually sell on the market...
 

Dalregementet

New Member
What you're focusing on here is mission planning and doctrine. Interoperability and "deployability" isn't really defined in those terms alone but hwo the entire concept works at a systems level. Here is how the EEAW works, from Cold Response 2007:


Exercise Cold Response 2007 was held in Norway from March 7 to March 16. It was what the Norwegians call an invitational exercise – intended mainly for the Norwegian military but with other nations permitted to join. This year, a total of 8500 personnel took part with major foreign participation in the air and special forces aspects of the exercise. The whole exercise followed a scenario based on the Kosovo campaign. Ground forces were sent to bring peace to a troubled province and push out an aggressive foe. The area to be “liberated” in this peacekeeping scenario was located around the airfield of Bardufoss, well above the Artic Circle.

A large multination Air Force, the EPAF Expeditionary Air Wing (EEAW), was assembled well south of the area of operations, at Bodø airbase. The EPAF, or European Participation Air Forces, include the four nations that together bought the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon in the 1970s – the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway and Denmark – and Portugal, who acquired F-16s later on. This was the first time ever that the five EPAF nations had flown together. Several of the countries had linked up before during operations, for instance in Afghanistan, but never more than three nations at a time.

Each of the EPAF countries sent five F-16s for the exercise, four to fly and one spare. Norway, being the host nation, joined with six aircraft and two spares. All the pilots (twelve from each nation), were veterans and had international experience as well. Germany supported the EEAW with a contingent of three C.160 Transall transport aircraft led, appropriately, by a British exchange pilot.

Bodø is Norway’s main F-16 base with two squadrons stationed. That meant that the visiting countries did not have to bring any support equipment as everything was at hand.

The detachment commander of the EEAW was Belgian Lieutenant-Colonel Alex “Rooster” Roose, the commanding officer of of 350 Squadron, Belgian Air Force. He explained the whole operation. “The participants in the EEAW have only minor differences in capability and training. There is a high level of commonality. This exercise is meant to show that five small nations can do the same as one lead nation (the United States, GvO). With this commitment we can sustain six aircraft in an operation for three years.” [He's referring to the Belgian commitment. /GD]

All the EPAF F-16’s are in the MLU M4 configuration
, meaning they have undergone the Mid-Life Upgrade and received the M4 software with Link 16 capability. Together with a NATO AWACS flying from Urland, Lt-Col Roose commented, EPAF forces have “never had such a complete picture.”

Having so many nations working together would normally create problems, but not here. Within EPAF the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) are pretty much the same for all nations. The only major differences lie in the safety margins used by the different air forces.

When I spoke to Alex in the second week, he proclaimed, “After five days of operations, things are really running smoothly!” So as not make things any more complicated than they needed to be, the flying entities stayed national – except for a few exchange officers, all the aircraft and pilots in a four-ship formation would be from one country.

The role of mission commander rotated between the nations every day. After the orders came in, there was a multinational brainstorm after which the national element leaders went away to do their planning. Every hour, all the leaders came together for updates.

In the first week, the wing flew day sorties and Combined Air Operations (COMAOs). In the second week the wing also flew COMAOs during night missions. And it was busy, with 26 jets flying two sorties a day. The ongoing process of planning and flying kept both pilots and ground crews occupied.

The maintenance side of the operation was under the command of Norwegian Captain Tommy Myrvoll. All 270 maintenance personnel were pooled and worked from the specialty shops on the base. Each country brought only their own “fly-away kit” for the aircraft. Everything was shared. When an aircraft needed servicing, Myrvoll only needed to look at the speciality of the personnel, not which country they were from. That way a Dutch aircraft could be repaired by a Portugese and Norwegian maintenance crew, for instance. Signing off on the maintenance still had to be done by a member of the crew from the aircraft’s own country.

At Bodø the Norwegians put the MOC (Maintenance Operations Centre) in deployable containers. Here the international crew gained experience in working in less than perfect conditions. Serviceability levels were around ninety percent for the exercise.

All in all, ground and flight crews had the opportunity to work with international colleagues, much like they would (and are already doing) on operations around the world. The pilots got to train in a reasonable hostile environment due to the weather conditions. The pilots also had the opportunity to work with special forces, which also made up a large part of Cold Response 2007. The presence of a large live-fire range added to the realism of this exercise.

http://www.fencecheck.com/news/Cold_Response_2007/

***

Now imagine one nation showing up with Gripens.

(IIRC EEAW is capable of deploying 32 F-16 on 5-7 days notice and a further 24-32 in another 3-4 weeks.)
Nice essay! Ehh, do you mean that the UK are not welcome to participate with Eurofighter? Or Germany... What about Hungary and Czeckia, are they also excluded. Ok - the main message is: If you don´t buy US stealth fighters, then you are not welcome to joint Nato exercises. Come on! Of course full interoperability is a nice thing, but if that means only haviing one (US) supplier of aircrafts for all Noato countries, then that idea is stone dead.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Nice essay!
GD may feel compelled to cut you some slack - but you are testing my patience with your attitude.

Smarten up or you'll end up on a small holiday

Ehh, do you mean that the UK are not welcome to participate with Eurofighter? Or Germany... What about Hungary and Czeckia, are they also excluded. Ok - the main message is: If you don´t buy US stealth fighters, then you are not welcome to joint Nato exercises. Come on! Of course full interoperability is a nice thing, but if that means only haviing one (US) supplier of aircrafts for all Noato countries, then that idea is stone dead.
Are you being deliberately obtuse? How many exercises does the USAF/USMC run every year with a cohort of nations who are not int'd or unable to purchase 5th gen aircraft. At last count there would be over 121 countries that participate in air exercises with the US and aren't JSF customers.

Eurofighter has been to Red Flag, as have the Germans with a variety of aircraft.

Quite frankly, I am getting heartily sick of your combative attitude esp when you demonstrate a deficiency in what other countries do actually participate in air exercises and don't have US gear.

Take this as a 2nd warning as you obviously ignored my 1st.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Nice essay! Ehh, do you mean that the UK are not welcome to participate with Eurofighter? Or Germany...
Welcome, yes. Would it be a practical and real world solution? No. So the UK wouldn't suggest it and EEAW would advise against it. It runs against the grain of the operations concept.

On top of that, UK and Germany have their own expeditionary wings. They don't need to form up with others.

What about Hungary and Czeckia, are they also excluded.
Hungary and the Czech Repuplic barely have enough jets for air policing. Having a deployable sqn on a permanent basis require 48 jets. That's why they show up for DACT exercises, bringing along everything they need and plan months in advance - which is different from a expeditionary air wing, which will move on days notice and in large numbers. It is an entirely different concept.

Ok - the main message is: If you don´t buy US stealth fighters, then you are not welcome to joint Nato exercises. Come on! Of course full interoperability is a nice thing, but if that means only haviing one (US) supplier of aircrafts for all Noato countries, then that idea is stone dead.
It is not the supplier of the jet that is critical - it is the commonality of logistics, spares, training, doctrine - which makes it possible to slap components from 5 different air forces together overnight into a large-scale effective fighting formation.

You can have as diverse jets as you like in NATO. But if you're a small air force, and you want to contribute to a serious, credible expeditionary capability, then you'll have to find some partners who use the same jet as you.

And currently there is no NATO air force with enough numbers of Gripen to contribute to an EAW.
 

Dalregementet

New Member
Welcome, yes. Would it be a practical and real world solution? No. So the UK wouldn't suggest it and EEAW would advise against it. It runs against the grain of the operations concept.

On top of that, UK and Germany have their own expeditionary wings. They don't need to form up with others.



Hungary and the Czech Repuplic barely have enough jets for air policing. Having a deployable sqn on a permanent basis require 48 jets. That's why they show up for DACT exercises, bringing along everything they need and plan months in advance - which is different from a expeditionary air wing, which will move on days notice and in large numbers. It is an entirely different concept.



It is not the supplier of the jet that is critical - it is the commonality of logistics, spares, training, doctrine - which makes it possible to slap components from 5 different air forces together overnight into a large-scale effective fighting formation.

You can have as diverse jets as you like in NATO. But if you're a small air force, and you want to contribute to a serious, credible expeditionary capability, then you'll have to find some partners who use the same jet as you.

And currently there is no NATO air force with enough numbers of Gripen to contribute to an EAW.
Sorry for not triggering on EAW - I believe you are right on that one. But back to the main topic: What are the parameters that Norway will take into consideration when choosing their next fighter aircraft? EAW is of course important if that is an Norwegian priority. I haven´t seen the full Norwegian spec and what other considerations that might influence the coming decision - Anyone?

By the way - these warnings, do they have an expiriation date? In Sweden, traffic speeding is logged for 2 years :D
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Sorry for not triggering on EAW - I believe you are right on that one. But back to the main topic: What are the parameters that Norway will take into consideration when choosing their next fighter aircraft? EAW is of course important if that is an Norwegian priority. I haven´t seen the full Norwegian spec and what other considerations that might influence the coming decision - Anyone?
From one of my earlier posts in this thread:

The Norwegian Government had defined four requirements the fighters must fulfill (rough translation from Norwegian):

1. They should be used as fighter planes in traditional a2a

2. They should be able to do surveillance of large areas and collect "sophisticated" information from the same areas

3. They shall give support to ground forces and be able to work together with other arms of the military

4. In addition they should be able to go deep. This means that if Norway is being attacked we will have the possibility to attack deep inside the attackers own area.
The four basic requirements have been given equal weight; however, weakness in one area may be compensated for by scoring more points in another.

VLO is not a requirement but lower RCS than F16 has been mentioned as a requirement. There are also specific requirements to range, etc, although I do not have any further specifics.

It was said back in april that both contenders meet "all basic requirements", whatever that means.

As mentioned in another recent post, there are also requirements to "offset deals". I do not know what they are, however presumably both contenders would meet those requirements, both offering more than 100% in "offsets deals". In one of my previous post I linked to an article written by the State Secretary where he made it clear that "offset deals" are very important, and he also indicated that a "EEAW capability" is not a priority but would be considered a bonus.

Another important thing to consider is that one of the main priorities for the Norwegian DoD has been to create a real competition. If EEAW (or VLO, for that matter) had become an important priority, then Gripen NG would have had less of a chance and the competition may have been perceived as mere "window dressing". Having a real competition was very important in order to get good deals, and in this the Norwegian DoD has succeeded. The proof of this are the excellent "offset deals" from both Saab and LM.


I can try to dig up some references for the above if somebody insist (although it may take some time).


V
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top