Caucasian Powderkeg?

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eaf-f16

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It would be interesting to find out what role Chechen mercenaries played?
You mean Chechen special operations forces (not "mercenaries")? I don't know. But they're reportedly deployed there. If they encounter Georgian forces they will undoubtedly wreak havoc on them. But we will have to wait and see until the conflict is over to get any details about their operations specifically.
 

Burunsuzoglu

New Member
Other than a few choice words and assistance in redeployment of Georgian troops back to Georgia, the US hasn't really done a whole lot much.

As much as anyone would like, the reality is as of today, no Awacs has been sent across Turkey and no F22s are being redeployed.

Right now I think the main aim for the US is to ensure that there is still a Georgia to support.

Georgia may seem like a major US partner but strategically, the loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia doesn't put a dent to US plans in isolating Iran or managing oil pipe line routes.

Let's look at it from the perspective of the secretary of state. The Russians are balkanising (ie breaking up) Georgia. What US will consider doing is to prevent state recognition of Akbhazia and South Ossetia by more than the usual suspects. It needs to seek UN support to maintain the de jure territorial integrity of Georgia whilst it can. Then it will seek the removal of Russian troops as it did previously in Abkhazia. Thereafter, after a period of time, it will seek a reunification on a basis of autonomy for the 2 regions within Georgia.

However, the current timing is useful to Russia. The coming change in US presidents mean Bush is a lame duck. Stall for a few more months and wait for the next president's response. I'm not so sure Obama is savvy enough to navigate this complexity.

Looking at it from Russia's perspective. America is going to lose political/moral points if it throws its full weight of support for Georgia if Georgian troops are found to have committed atrocities. Georgia's going to lose a segment of resource and be diverted from supporting Chechnya. Russia also has a great deal of cover in terms of distraction from activities in other regions eg Chechnya.

Remember Saakashvili is no Shevardnadze. He's a guy whose willing to use force to achieve his ends and got caught out by a bigger gangster in the neighborhood.

The US does have an opportunity to create another satellite beholden to US interests.

If I was the Americans, what I'll do is to fast-track Georgia's entry into Nato. It'd guarantee Georgia's existence and certain to irk Russia.
1. How will you overcome Russia/China veto in the UN

2. How will you overcome the gutless French/German veto in NATO

There is only one way out same as in Yom Kippur - flood Georgia with military technology and intelligence.
 

eaf-f16

New Member
Georgia may seem like a major US partner but strategically, the loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia doesn't put a dent to US plans in isolating Iran or managing oil pipe line routes.
Oh, it most definitely does and will thanks to the US' and Israel's military support to the Georgian regime.

And rest assure Russia is going to bring that up next time Israel starts complaining about Russian military exports and to Iran and Arab countries (the latter of which is a major potential source of income for Russia).

Georgia was and is more trouble than it's worth. There is no point now in worsening relations with Russia further. At least the Israelis have realized this. Georgia can't seriously hope to keep S.Ossetia or Abkhazia.
 

Feanor

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The peace was only a lull in the fighting. Active combat has resumed.

14:49 Israeli sources report that the USA has organized delivery of weapons to Georgia.

Humans Rights Watch has said that western press has essentially been misinforming the public and took Russia's side in the conflict. Around 30 000 refugees have flooded into Russia, 1400 into Georgia, and another 1500-2000 are dead.

15:05 Shelling of Ts'hinvali has resumed.

15:26 Water supply to Ts'hinvali has been restored.

15:46 Georgian gas supplies to Armenia have dropped by 30%.

16:20 360 Russian citizens are trapped in Georgia and are not allowed to leave the country. Also a column with Russian humanitarian supplies has finally arrived in Ts'hinvali.

16:30 Another Georgian Su-25 has been shot down when trying to attack positions of the 58th Army.

16:39 Russia officialy states that regime change is not the goal of the operation.

16:44 Georgian ministry of Foreign Affairs said that VVS has bombed airbase at Senaki.

Photo and newsreel taken from of lenta.ru





According to latest info, 15-18 Russian peacekeepers are dead and 70 wounded. Also Russia now admits to losing 3 Su-25's and one Tu-22MR.

Also Ukraine has officially announced that no military help to Georgia will come from Ukraine, only humanitarian help. Georgia accused Russia of genocide in the 1992 conflict and plans to take the accusations to Hague.

Finally, kommersant confirmed thousands of mercenaries under command of foreign instructors taking part in the conflict. Some have apparently already been taken prisoner.

Photos from newsru.com





 

Feanor

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You mean Chechen special operations forces (not "mercenaries")? I don't know. But they're reportedly deployed there. If they encounter Georgian forces they will undoubtedly wreak havoc on them. But we will have to wait and see until the conflict is over to get any details about their operations specifically.
Russian officials have officially denied that Chechen formations were deployed to the conflict zone. Whether they're actually there or not, we'll have to wait and see.
 

Chrom

New Member
It will make EU more wary of BlueStream project and more anxious to promote Nabucco. ).
\

Contrary to you believe, "real politic" dictate completely opposite thing - BlueStream project is "secure" through russian military and political clout, whereas Nabukko is NOT secure due to, well, russian military and political clout!
 

BlackAdder

New Member
Finally, kommersant confirmed thousands of mercenaries under command of foreign instructors taking part in the conflict. Some have apparently already been taken prisoner.
Well, I'm waiting for the old story of White Tights to be dragged out of archives, dusted over and utilised again :) I recall that during Chechnya wars one could believe that the Baltic states were literally crawling with female sharpshooters en route for lucrative contracts in Chechnya :eek:nfloorl:
 

BlackAdder

New Member
Colonel-General Nogovitsuin in a public statement said that the Russian military will not cross the borders of the Ossetian administrative region.

http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=58402&cid=25

EDIT: I don't know about thousands, but I bet there are some.
What about Abkhazian? Since 14:40 GMT Russian and Abkhazian forces have already taken Zugdidi, which is in the Georgia proper. Russian media reports that these forces are moving to Senaki, 35 clicks from the border, Georgian MP Gabashvili called these reports "lies aimed at provoking panic".
 

BlackAdder

New Member
Humans Rights Watch has said that western press has essentially been misinforming the public and took Russia's side in the conflict. Around 30 000 refugees have flooded into Russia, 1400 into Georgia, and another 1500-2000 are dead.
I am sorry, but you must having some liberties with translating what HRW representative said after the field mission to Caucasus. I'm translating now verbatim and can add afterwards the exact Russian text.

Tatyana Lokshina, representative of Human Rights Watch:
"We are deeply frustrated by the level of disinformation, which flows from both parties to the conflict, and by the propaganda, currently observed in mass media."

According to her, official reports about numbers of casualties and injured among the civilian population as well as about refugees, are unsubstantiated.

"Yesterday we went to the operation HQ in Vladikavkaz, which coordinates humanitarian aid to the refugees, and local staff gave us figures by the Federal Ministry of Emergency Situations, according to which approximately 24 thousand people moved to North Ossetia from the South Ossetia since the outset of the conflict. According to the figures by the same office, more than 11 thousands of those moved back to the South Ossetia. Furthermore, the said report underlines, that volunteers continue to enter South Ossetia, therefore number of refugees in North Ossetia is lowered accordingly. Thus it seems rather strange, that the first inflated figure on the displaced persons is the only one quoted in mass media".
According the manager of the hospital all injured individuals are brought there, later they are moved to other medical institutions, first and foremost, in Vladikavkaz and Rostov.

"We've been told, that the hospital opened in North Ossetia on August 9, and until late August 10, a total number of 52 injured individuals were admitted, 50 of them with serious injuries. 90% of them - military personnel, the rest - civilians. We cannot guarantee that these figures are entirely correct, however, the manager claimed that all admitted injured pass through him", said Lokshina.

As been the practice with other armed conflicts, number of injured exceeds number of casualties by a factor of 3, she said. "Therefore figures, that were quoted yesterday by Russian mass media about thousands of civilian casualties, seem somewhat inappropriate".
 

Patsfan86

New Member
Six Georgian helicopters have been seen launching attacks in South Otessia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSLB123974

Edit. Seems like Georgia has left most of country (west Georgia undefended. Classic tactic of striking where the enemy is weakest. Russia will avoid head on assualt on Gori, instead encircle and then destroy them.
breaking now

Russian forces occupy Georgian city of Gori: Tbilisi


Russian forces occupied the city of Gori and Georgian forces are fortifying positions near Tbilisi to defend the capital, Georgia's National Security Council secretary told AFP Monday. — AFP

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/270205.asp
 

BlackAdder

New Member
So, it's confirmed. Russian General Staff representative confirmed that Chechen Vostok battalion is involved in military operations in South Ossetia. Took three days to admit after those first AFP and Reuters photos taken :) Smart move, give Yamadayev butchers something else to do and take the pressure from Kadyrov simultaneously.
 

Type59

New Member
breaking now

Russian forces occupy Georgian city of Gori: Tbilisi


Russian forces occupied the city of Gori and Georgian forces are fortifying positions near Tbilisi to defend the capital, Georgia's National Security Council secretary told AFP Monday. — AFP

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/270205.asp
The situation is still confused, as often said fog of war has decsended. But if true Russia most be using their advanced weapons never used before by any other nation. Unless Georgian completetly withdrew but journalists have saying their army is hiding in surronding area. Thus Russia had to blast through. Like I said situation is confused.
 

Patsfan86

New Member
The situation is still confused, as often said fog of war has decsended. But if true Russia most be using their advanced weapons never used before by any other nation. Unless Georgian completetly withdrew but journalists have saying their army is hiding in surronding area. Thus Russia had to blast through. Like I said situation is confused.
What advanced weapons never used before by any other nation?
 

Type59

New Member
What advanced weapons never used before by any other nation?
Advanced weapons never exported by Russia to allies and other nations. Like Electronic Warfare equipment and other less prominant stuff.

Edit. I am trying to say weapons that are usually associated with the west, Russia has similiar stuff.
 

Patsfan86

New Member
U.S. envoy accuses Russia of planning invasion

11 Aug 2008 15:51:25 GMT
Source: Reuters
TBILISI, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Russia prepared in advance for an invasion of Georgia, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza told journalists after flying into Tbilisi on Monday.

"We heard statements saying that the Russian railroad troops that entered Abkhazia a couple of months ago were there for a humanitarian mission," he told journalists at the airport.

"Now we know the truth that these forces were there to rebuild the railway to allow ammunition and other military supplies to aid a Russian invasion." (Reporting by James Kilner)

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LB156355.htm
 

Type59

New Member
You right Georgian troops have been routed. Fleeing in disarray, how they gonna be expected to be defend Tibilisi when troops are spread over large terrority and lost some of their equipment. Russia will prob take other more strategic places before they get to the capital where western media is camped out.
 
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