Caucasian Powderkeg?

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eckherl

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Shaking...Loud sound...They ll run at once....Then ll give all russian nukes to georgians...Transport plane is STRONG STRATEGIC weapon!!!:eek:nfloorl:
As for you Idiot number 2, start making posts that contribute to this thread instead of your off the wall rubbish. Your first and last warning before you get reported.
 

Black Legion

New Member
Is that the impression that you took from my post idiot, nobody said anything about Russia being afraid of U.S transport planes hauling Georgian troops in, one that gets shot down could in fact change or cause additional things that Russia would have to consider. Getting U.S military involvement in this little cluster F_ck that Russia is enjoying is not something that they want to do.
You can insult all you want, but any transport plane carrying Georgian troops in Georgian airspace will be treated as hostile. And where will they land anyway, Russian planes bombed Georgian military and civilian airports? Only across Turkey can they be transported via trucks.

US wouldn't even response if their C-130 was shot down, because even then they wouldn't risk a conflict with Russia, especially in that region where they can't put up a serious ground force in a short time.
 

eaf-f16

New Member
You can insult all you want, but any transport plane carrying Georgian troops in Georgian airspace will be treated as hostile. And where will they land anyway, Russian planes bombed Georgian military and civilian airports? Only across Turkey can they be transported via trucks.

US wouldn't even response if their C-130 was shot down, because even then they wouldn't risk a conflict with Russia, especially in that region where they can't put up a serious ground force in a short time.
Just like the US avoids tensions with Russia, Russia avoids tension with the US.

Even if the US agreed to and had the capability (no bombed out runways or airstrips) to transport Georgian troops by air, Russia wouldn't have shot down any of the US transport planes on purpose.

At the most they would have just intercepted and forced them to land somewhere.

There will be some strong words and maybe some particularly harsh diplomatic responses between the two countries over this but they won't do anything beyond that.
 

Patsfan86

New Member
You can insult all you want, but any transport plane carrying Georgian troops in Georgian airspace will be treated as hostile. And where will they land anyway, Russian planes bombed Georgian military and civilian airports? Only across Turkey can they be transported via trucks.

US wouldn't even response if their C-130 was shot down, because even then they wouldn't risk a conflict with Russia, especially in that region where they can't put up a serious ground force in a short time.
an interesting world wide deployment chart.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/deploy.htm
 

Pro'forma

New Member
Is it time to declare for constructive Lisbon peace process.

Both Ossetian has the right for declining years, before losing too
much economically.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #308
News update everyone.

Georgia has admitted to 150 casualties in the ongoing conflict. Georgian troops are apparently out of the conflict zone. However artillery barrages are continuing from both sides, including resumed artillery fire on Ts'hinvali. Evacuation of civilians and injured from Ts'hinvali is proceeding, but without any negotiated corridor. Earlier there were reports of Georgian artillery strikes on a column of injured civilians.

Meanwhile on the internet there are more and more reports that Georgian photos of dead civilians are a mock up. A single Georgian ship has been sunk by the VMF near Abkhazia. Meanwhile Russian paratroppers have arrived in Abkhazia (possibly the photo with BMD's that I posted earlier was them) but the Abkhazians have yet to begin an offensive.

EDIT: 19 Georgian diversants have been captured in Southern Ossetia.

Abkhazia has declared a mobilization and their artillery has been shelling Georgian forces. Abkhazia also said they are prepared to enter the Georgian region of Zugdidi. Abkhazian forces have entered the Gali district, which is in the zone of the conflict controlled by the peacekeepers.
 

nevidimka

New Member
Wait let me get this right.
The Georgian Ambassador to the UN and I believe Saakashvilli, has been saying that Russia is showing back its expansionist tendencies, ever since the Soviet Union or the Tsarist Russia. That Russia has had a history of not respecting the territorial integrity of its neighbors, n yet Georgia wants a region (S.Ossetia) that was transferred to Georgia under Soviet Union's Stalin for Ease of governance of that region?

How does that give credibility to their claims?

Also the UN SC meeting has been really interesting. 1 thing did just came up though. A "said" conversation between Russia and US has been been brought out into the open by US Ambassador during their arguments. The conversation as claimed by the US ambassador is about Russia wanting a regime change in Georgia. AFAIK, a behind the scenes talk between US and the fmr Soviet Union and now Russia should stay behind the scenes. Why would US bring them out in the open? Wouldnt that make whatever arrangements between them previously more complicated into the future?

Surely if 1 party want to bring out the others secret conversation out in the open, then Russia could also do the same in previous occasions? How does that help the relations between US-Russia? I think US has made their relations with Russia very complicated with this leak.
 

KGB

New Member
What was the win scenario for Georgia, I wonder. Even if Georgia had been able to take Tskhinvali, and the Roki tunnel blocked, how did they plan to avoid the russian response? As it is, Russia's strategic bombing is already exerting heavy punishment on Georgia.

Perhaps the Georgian offensive had more to do with local politics. Politicians losing their mandate get popularity boosts from external threats. Argentina in the Falklands was one example. A certain president who won an election by a hairbreadth recieved a huge political boost when foreign terrorists made a spectacular hit in his country.
;)

As it is now, local opposition to Georgia's president is now silent in the face of war. Georgia might suffer, but it's president is more secure than ever.
 

Eeshaan

New Member
Hello,

I have a few questions about the recent events in S.Ossetia :

On BBC I just heard a report saying that relations between Russia and Georgia are worsening to the point that the Russian army may push further south, past S.Ossetia, given that they have not yet made it clear the extent of the "punishment" they want to give Georgia for sending it's forces into S.Ossetia. It was being asked on the news wether Georgia had "bitten off more than it could chew". What are the chances of this happening ?

Also, I heard that if the current situation escalates further, then the Georgian Olympic team may withdraw from the Olympics as a sign of protest. Do you think this move ( which seems purely political to me ) will have ANY effect on the current situation ? Sorry to get the Olympics invilved into this thread, but I wanted to confirm what was being said in the news.

One last question : Reports in the news say that most of the civilian casualties in the zone are being caused by the Georgians, not the Russian military. One civilian witness on TV said that the Georgians are flooding basement hiding places for civilians with water, thereby forcing them out into the open and causing their deaths. At the same time, the president Saakashvili claims that he saw Russian bombers swoop in low to target concentrations of civilian cars, and is certain that the civilian casualties are being caused by the Russian offensive. Would anyone like to shed any light on these claims, in order to let us know who's right or wrong, please ?

Thanks.
 

Kold

New Member
Russia is apparently preparing an offensive operation to take the Georgian city of Zugdidi. Witnesses report "hundreds" of Russian military vehicles and tanks massing on the Abkhazian side.

Civilians have fled the city by the tens of thousands.




It looks like Russia's endgame here is
1. To destroy as much as they can of Georgia's military infrastructure
2. To fully occupy all of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the road to incorporation into the Russian Federaton
and
3a. To station "peacekeepers" many kilometers deep past Abkhazian/Ossetian borders [i.e., in the territory they will seize in the upcoming offensives].
OR
3b. (Preferably) to topple the government and put a nice "pro-Russian" government in Tbilisi instead. [A puppet state]. Making "peacekeepers" in 'Georgia proper' unnecessary.

When the smoke clears, Russia will possess perhaps 25%-30% of Georgian territory, while the West did nothing at all to stop it. This small little war may be a paradigm-changer in world affairs. "When push comes to shove", Russia can shove around any small country and NATO will talk, talk, talk, but nothing more?
 

drandul

Member
What was the win scenario for Georgia, I wonder. Even if Georgia had been able to take Tskhinvali, and the Roki tunnel blocked, how did they plan to avoid the russian response? As it is, Russia's strategic bombing is already exerting heavy punishment on Georgia.

Perhaps the Georgian offensive had more to do with local politics. Politicians losing their mandate get popularity boosts from external threats. Argentina in the Falklands was one example. A certain president who won an election by a hairbreadth recieved a huge political boost when foreign terrorists made a spectacular hit in his country.
;)

As it is now, local opposition to Georgia's president is now silent in the face of war. Georgia might suffer, but it's president is more secure than ever.
I realy dobt that.- Georgians are not stupid - I think support of unresponsible and adventure leader looking for military confrontation will be even less than before- similar like in Iraq with Saddam. Nobody wants to have conflict with neighbours - I doubt that Georgians want to trade peace to insane leader. Concerning troops from Iraq - international airport of Tbilisy is open and flights are conducting so georgian troops from Iraq can use comercial airlines- but I doubt that after comparably good and safe service in Iraq with very good salary they realy willing to go under fire in realy uncontrolled environment.
 

PullerRommel

New Member
ABC just reported that Russia is apparently preparing for a Ground Attack on Gori. They showed the reporter in front of what appeared to be a mass reoinforcement of Gori by Georgian Forces.
 

eckherl

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Russia is apparently preparing an offensive operation to take the Georgian city of Zugdidi. Witnesses report "hundreds" of Russian military vehicles and tanks massing on the Abkhazian side.

Civilians have fled the city by the tens of thousands.




It looks like Russia's endgame here is
1. To destroy as much as they can of Georgia's military infrastructure
2. To fully occupy all of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the road to incorporation into the Russian Federaton
and
3a. To station "peacekeepers" many kilometers deep past Abkhazian/Ossetian borders [i.e., in the territory they will seize in the upcoming offensives].
OR
3b. (Preferably) to topple the government and put a nice "pro-Russian" government in Tbilisi instead. [A puppet state]. Making "peacekeepers" in 'Georgia proper' unnecessary.

When the smoke clears, Russia will possess perhaps 25%-30% of Georgian territory, while the West did nothing at all to stop it. This small little war may be a paradigm-changer in world affairs. "When push comes to shove", Russia can shove around any small country and NATO will talk, talk, talk, but nothing more?
There will be a price that Russia may indeed pay, Ukrainian entry into NATO or a strong U.S presence there just a few examples.
 

drandul

Member
Russia is apparently preparing an offensive operation to take the Georgian city of Zugdidi. Witnesses report "hundreds" of Russian military vehicles and tanks massing on the Abkhazian side.

Civilians have fled the city by the tens of thousands.




It looks like Russia's endgame here is
1. To destroy as much as they can of Georgia's military infrastructure
2. To fully occupy all of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the road to incorporation into the Russian Federaton
and
3a. To station "peacekeepers" many kilometers deep past Abkhazian/Ossetian borders [i.e., in the territory they will seize in the upcoming offensives].
OR
3b. (Preferably) to topple the government and put a nice "pro-Russian" government in Tbilisi instead. [A puppet state]. Making "peacekeepers" in 'Georgia proper' unnecessary.

When the smoke clears, Russia will possess perhaps 25%-30% of Georgian territory, while the West did nothing at all to stop it. This small little war may be a paradigm-changer in world affairs. "When push comes to shove", Russia can shove around any small country and NATO will talk, talk, talk, but nothing more?
Let's chill a little and try to see real goals:
1- Yes- seems it's true- it is natural primary goal in any conflict- to destroy MILITARY infrastracture of opponent.
2 Does Russia needs more teritory (especially poorly controled in mountains without any industry with 50 000 of population with only small tunnel conected to mainland). For what?
3 Russia would prefer not to have peacekeepers in that region at all - I meen in case if peace do not need to be kept by force.

Nobody pretends on Georgian trrritory. - Otherwise Georgia would be flooded with paratroopers and air - transported armor vehicles. Right now there is nothing prevents such massive actions. But it seems that only air suppresion of active military preparations of Georgia observed.
 

Eeshaan

New Member
Hello,

I have a few questions about the recent events in S.Ossetia :

On BBC I just heard a report saying that relations between Russia and Georgia are worsening to the point that the Russian army may push further south, past S.Ossetia, given that they have not yet made it clear the extent of the "punishment" they want to give Georgia for sending it's forces into S.Ossetia. It was being asked on the news wether Georgia had "bitten off more than it could chew". What are the chances of this happening ?

Also, I heard that if the current situation escalates further, then the Georgian Olympic team may withdraw from the Olympics as a sign of protest. Do you think this move ( which seems purely political to me ) will have ANY effect on the current situation ? Sorry to get the Olympics invilved into this thread, but I wanted to confirm what was being said in the news.

One last question : Reports in the news say that most of the civilian casualties in the zone are being caused by the Georgians, not the Russian military. One civilian witness on TV said that the Georgians are flooding basement hiding places for civilians with water, thereby forcing them out into the open and causing their deaths. At the same time, the president Saakashvili claims that he saw Russian bombers swoop in low to target concentrations of civilian cars, and is certain that the civilian casualties are being caused by the Russian offensive. Would anyone like to shed any light on these claims, in order to let us know who's right or wrong, please ?

Thanks.

Would anyone like to give any answers or comment on the above questions, please ?

thanks
 

PullerRommel

New Member
In regards to the second question: I have heard that the President of Georgia has told the Georgian team to stay and play,

Third one: I have heard the same RT has also reported the same from an American Citizen living in S. Ossetia as well as a multitude of other people. But both sides report the same.
 

Eeshaan

New Member
Ah ok thanks for the info.
I'm hoping that the situation dosen't escalate to a full-blown war, given Russia's plans to attack Zugdidi and Gori.

I'm also happy to see that the Olympics haven't been affected ( politically ) by these events YET lol.
 
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