Chrom,
You need to stop looking at this in the vacuum of USA vs Iran. It isn't that way. It's a coalition effort that includes most of the modern world. The US may do most of the heavy lifting in terms of military response but that is only part of it. The consequences of a nuclear Iran could affect the entire planet. Millions could die if the flow of oil is seriously disrupted.
Oh really? Millions deaths didn't stopped USA (or coalition, doesnt matter) from invading Iraq, and didnt stopped everyone else denying "unfriendly" nations access to oil, food or any other resources. Embargo, do you know this word? Why Iran should prefer foreign national interest to his own? Then all other nations do exactly opposite? As i said, Iran have all right to do everything with its own oil.
That makes this situation much more serious than the limited conflicts of the past. 17 million barrels of oil times $140 USD each daily through the strait of Hormuz. Do you have any ideal how much money that is? That's worth it and any response to a threat to that is not crazy. The higher prices go, the more people can't afford energy to cook, stay warm, drive to work, be driven to work, use lights, xport food and a whole lot of other things. People will start to die at some point Chrom.
Dont be childish, this is pure propaganda. Why USA (and everyone else) can deny and embargo other countries even more vital wares - food, medicaments , iron, microchips, even oil - but Iran cant do the same? Besides, even middle-term, 140$ barrel is not depended from Iran in the slightest. China, India, and other 3rd world countries increasing oil consumption by far outweighs any amount of Oil Iran could deliver.
The age of cheap oil is gone, the age of cheap food is gone. Get other it.
That dying starts in poorer countries. The poorer you are the faster it affects you. By dying I mean MEGADEATH. The USA is the most secure from this since it is the most wealthy nation. So when you use words like "sane" or "crazy" in this situation without the kind of context I just provided you aren't being objective. This isn't about sane or crazy, its about survival and there are 5.5 billion people in line before the 300 million Americans. Many of those people depend on Americans to ensure their survival. So this is clearly a military/humanitarian/economic situation rather than an issue of sanity. This is the global situation.
As i said, this is pure propaganda. It have no relation to Iran, and certainly not in the such long perspective when Iran get A-bomb.
Locally, Israel being a very densely packed society with little strategic depth cannot survive nuclear attacks PERIOD. Iran would be in a huge position of advantage. Put into some context for you Chrom, Israel has a population of only ~7 million. Those 7 million have only 4 ports and very few cities. only a small portion of their land is arable. Water supplies are equally limited. They don't have the mass or depth to withstand even a minor nuclear war. It would be the end of their society as we know it.
Again, childish. Iran is not THAT large, and anyway - does the size matter that much in current world? With current modern weapon and against modern army? Iran is exactly in some boat as Israel. Hell, everyone in our planet in the same boat - there is no other defense against bullying other than a-bomb currently.
So there is no question that this is "worth it". When you look at it this way, it's rather clear what means nations would resort to in the absence of options. Personally I question if Iran is even seriously after weapons or instead just using the threat of getting them to get concessions from the rest of the world. They have to know what the consequences are. The only other alternative is that their government is fanatical.
-DA
I dont see it. Right now only USA and its, lets say it mildly, close allies are willing to bomb Iran. EU, Russia, China, India and 4/5 of the rest world are against. No matter what - even if Iran actually acquire such bomb.
For most of these countries USA restrict access to oil and is guilty in high oil prices 2 orders of magnitude more already than Iran could ever be in the future, even by most pessimistic scenatio.
. I could calculate it if you really want to, but I got to go find one of my old crusty books. By the way, having fighters don't really help unless, they are airborne all the time. It is more useful to have early warning a/c in this case. You still can't shoot wthout PID unless we have a quite liberal ROE.