Navy Struggles With 'Fighter Gap'
May Buy More F/A-18s, Delay F-35 Purchase
By vago muradian
Published: 7 April 2008 Print | Email
The U.S. Navy is mulling proposals to bridge a "strike fighter gap" next decade by buying more F/A-18 E/F fighters or delaying the naval version of F-35 Lightning II, and that's worrying other Joint Strike Fighter customers.
The U.S. Navy may buy additional F/A-18s and possibly delay Joint Strike Fighters, above. (U.S. Navy) "The Navy is definitely looking at another buy of F-18s and both accelerating or slowing down F-35, and we have run some numbers to help them answer their questions," said Air Force Maj. Gen. C.R. Davis, the F-35 program executive officer. "Any time there is a discussion of a service or country pulling out airplanes from the program, the other service leaderships get very concerned. But we have told the Navy that buying them sooner at greater rates gives you a lower cost and more capability on your decks than any other buying profile."
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Navy leaders say they're fully committed to the JSF, but are facing a "strike fighter gap" between 2016 and 2025 as F/A-18 jets are retired but before the JSFs come on line, Adm. Gary Roughead, the chief of naval operations, told lawmakers.
To fill the gap, the Navy is looking at options that include upgrading some older planes to delay their retirements, buying from 50 to 282 more F-18s, and either speeding or delaying JSF.
Navy leaders worry that upgrading older F-18s may not make financial sense. Yet buying more JSFs earlier may be tough, because initial batches of the more capable Lockheed Martin jet will cost more than Boeing's F-18.
If the Navy eliminates the 25 carrier versions that it plans to buy each year for a decade, that "will increase the cost of the other planes that are being bought in those years," Davis said. "If you take hundreds of airplanes out of the program, of course the unit prices go up."
Moreover, a recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) study found that the roughly $1 trillion program is more than $38 billion over budget and could be 27 months behind schedule.
Davis rejects the GAO's findings, and said the program is achieving its milestones.
The Navy pushed back vigorously on any suggestion that its support of the JSF program was shaky.
"For the record, we stand by JSF," said Cmdr. Jeff Davis, a Navy spokesman at the Pentagon. "It will bring enhanced capabilities to the fight and is the future strike fighter for the Navy and the joint force, and we stand by it."
Maj. Gen. Davis agreed the Navy isn't being "subversive" about its commitment to the program, but simply faces a money crunch.
"They have a very tough economic argument," JSF's Davis said. "It depends on how quickly they see F-18s falling out of service. … There is no doubt if we make the numbers match, the Navy would be on F-35 a lot faster.
"I don't agree with the premise they don't like the airplane. I believe they are honorable."
The JSF, which was recently reviewed by the Defense Acquisition Board (DAB), is expected to receive approval to begin its second Low Rate Initial Production phase.
Maj. Gen. Davis declined to comment on the DAB review. He said, however, that based on new calculations, the projected cost of the carrier variant has dropped 3 percent.
The Navy, the only apparent customer for the carrier variant, intends to buy about 25 aircraft annually starting in 2014. Current service plans call for buying a total of 360 of the carrier variant and 320 of the short-takeoff and -landing (STOVL) variant for the Marine Corps.
Meanwhile, the Navy has bought 332 F-18 Super Hornets and plans to buy another 161. And Boeing has just introduced a new version of the F-18, dubbed the 4.75 version, and is eager to land more Navy and international orders.
All that is worrying officials in the Marine Corps and Air Force - which wants 1,763 of the conventional-takeoff and -landing version of the plane - which are allied with eight other nations to develop and field JSF.
"Just as people are puzzling over the cost of F-35, you have one service considering slowing down its portion of the program," said Robbin Laird, a consultant who advises the Air Force, Marine Corps and Navy leadership. "That adds a big question to many others that are in the minds of allies who will be deciding their commitment to JSF over the next year or two."
High Stakes for U.K.
Britain, which wants 150 F-35B STOVL jets for its two new 65,000-ton aircraft carriers, is watching the U.S. Navy's evolving interest in more F-18s closely, sources said.
The Ministry of Defence will decide this summer whether to equip the Queen Elizabeth-class ships, which were intended to operate STOVL aircraft, with catapults and arresting gear for conventional carrier planes.
If the U.S. Navy seems likely to do something to boost the JSF's purchase price, the aircraft could become a target in the U.K. MoD, which is struggling to cut costs. That could force the Royal Navy to consider buying the F-18 or the Dassault Rafale, or even a navalized version of the Eurofighter.
But the U.S. Navy may have more at stake than aircraft budgets. Laird said that without the stealthy JSF to do "Day One" attacks on a heavily defended enemy, the service will struggle to justify having so many expensive nuclear aircraft carriers.
Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute agreed.
"Naval aviation will not survive beyond the next 20 years unless it fields the carrier version of the F-35 in large numbers," Thompson said. "Without the F-35, the Navy has little future in littoral warfare."
Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group agreed that a Navy delay could hurt the overall program.
"By moving away from JSF, the Navy is transmitting the message that current planes are good enough, and that is really damaging to JSF, which is all about stealth and fifth-generation capabilities," Aboulafia said.
The Navy has never been a fan of the program, Thompson and others said. In 2002, the service cut its JSF order by hundreds of aircraft under a plan to integrate Navy and Marine air forces, pushing up the predicted price tag, sources said.
Two years ago, the Navy balked at funding its share of JSF, but eventually found the money after being told to do so by Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England.
In 2006, the Navy circulated briefings urging the delaying the STOVL jet, arguing for more carrier versions. That plan drew a furious response from the Marines and British, and again England intervened on behalf of the program, and the Navy backed down.
