Taiwan and the PRC

[Firehorse]

I understand that there is fear of instability and desintagration, but all large countries and empires undergo alternating periods of growth and break-up- and in the long run, there's nothing anyone can do about it! Look at the EU- are the different states compising it, but united by European culture, smoothly integrating? How the world would react if Germans told Austrians to "reunify", if we imagine that the majority of Germans consider them part of Greater Germany? BTW, Corsica was part of France since before Napoleon's time, and there's still separatist activity! What kind of "one country, 2 systems" is it, when HK is a distinct territory that doesn't allow Mainland Chinese to freely settle there? Will it be any different with Taiwan?

..modern Chinese nationalism could be traced to Sun Yat-sen, the Chinese revolutionary who described the country’s main ethnic groups — the Han, Manchu, Hui, Mongolian and Tibetan peoples — as the “five fingers” of China.
Today, Han Chinese constitute more than 92 percent of the population, but without one of those five fingers, China’s leaders do not consider the country whole.
“The Communist Party has used nationalism as an ideology to keep China together,” said Mr. Anand, a reader in international relations at Westminster University in London. He said many Chinese regarded the Tibetan protests “as an attack on their core identity.
“It’s not only an attack on the state,” he continued, “but an attack on what it means to be Chinese. Even if minorities don’t feel like part of China, they are part of China’s nationality.” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/31/world/asia/31china.html?th&emc=th

Both the Chinese government and Tibetan activists could learn from the Taiwan example. At present, decades of Chinese investment and economic growth in Tibet have had scant effect on Tibetan subjects who cling to their culture and religion even if that means less material improvement. China, too, remains determined to preserve its control over Tibet no matter what the economic cost may be. It’s a lose-lose situation. http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=10581

 

[SPI]

According what you said above,I am not sure whether you are a resident of the island,but there is one policy or red line which everyone that care about the island especailly including the residents of the island should clear,is that the futher of Taiwan is decided by all Chinese people,not merely the people who are living in Taiwan,because Taiwan is part of China and this principle is supported not only in point of history but also in point of law.And please give up your idea,frankly,it is naive.

Taiwan is not part of China. And your comment about point of history is way off, Taiwan was created based on not supporting Maoist Gov't. By Law, you mean only Chines Law.

 

[Salty Dog]

Taiwan urges U.S. to sell it F-16 jets

Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:22am EDT
By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Taiwan's envoy urged the United States on Tuesday to clear the sale of advanced Lockheed Martin Corp F-16 fighter jets as soon as possible, putting the Bush administration in an awkward spot ahead of the Beijing Olympics.

The potential $4.9 billion deal for 66 advanced F-16 C/D models is strongly opposed by China, as are all U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Critics say the Bush administration has been stalling, at least until after the summer games starting August 8 that Bush is scheduled to attend.

"We hope that the U.S. administration will approve the requested sale as soon as possible," Joseph Wu, the outgoing chief representative in Washington, told Reuters in an emailed reply to a query.

"We believe that Taiwan's acquisition of additional F-16s ... will do much to enhance Taiwan's air defense and at the same time improve stability across the Taiwan Strait," he said.

Wu said it was also in U.S. interests, an apparent reference to the danger that a cross-straits conflict might draw in U.S. troops.

Wu, who is to leave in coming weeks, was speaking for the government of Taiwan, said Eddie Tsai, a spokesman for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, the de facto embassy.

The new F-16s would supplement 150 F-16A/B models sold to Taiwan by George W. Bush's father, the first President Bush, in 1992.

Taiwan first asked to buy new F-16s last year after breaking a long partisan deadlock in parliament over arms purchases and approving substantial funding for the aircraft.

The Bush administration has refused to accept formal paperwork needed to process the request, according to the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, which represents about 100 companies doing business in Taiwan, including contractors such as Lockheed Martin.

TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT

In response, the State Department said the administration faithfully carries out the Taiwan Relations Act, a 1979 law under which the United States sells arms and services for Taiwan's self-defense.

"There is an internal, interagency process for the U.S. government to consider sales to Taiwan," said Gonzalo Gallegos, a department spokesman. "When the interagency process achieves a final decision for any specific arms sale we will notify Congress."

Wu made his remarks after the business council, now chaired by Paul Wolfowitz, a former deputy secretary of defense under Bush, accused the administration of "blatantly" tampering with the U.S. arms sales process.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the council's president, said in an interview that the Bush administration in effect had frozen eight potential arms deals sought by Taiwan valued at a total of more than $11 billion. Among these, he said, were Lockheed/ Raytheon Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile and anti-aircraft interceptors plus Black Hawk utility helicopters built by United Technologies Corp's Sikorsky unit.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are fraught with complications. They are all but required by the 1979 law that switched U.S. diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing. It says the president and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such sales "based solely on their judgment of the needs of Taiwan".

China, which regards Taiwan as its own territory, opposes such sales as interference in its domestic affairs. Beijing vows to use force if necessary to bring Taiwan under mainland rule.

Asked last month about Taiwan's request for F-16s, John Negroponte, the U.S. deputy secretary of state, told a Senate committee the administration was awaiting developments after the election of a new president, Ma Ying-jeou, sworn-in on May 20.

The request initially was stiff-armed amid Bush administration concern over independence-minded moves by former president Chen Shui-bian deemed provocative toward Beijing.

The United States has many reasons to avoid angering China, including the Beijing-hosted six-party talks aimed at rolling back and eventually scrapping North Korea's nuclear materials and programs.

Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon's No. 1 supplier by sales, "greatly respects Taiwan's efforts to defend itself and appreciates Taiwan's interest in new F-16s," Tom Jurkowsky, a company spokesman, said in an emailed statement.

Richard Bush (no relation to President Bush), a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, said holding off on Taiwan's F-16 request until after the Olympics was "a good way to balance our various interests." The American Institute in Taiwan serves as the de facto U.S. embassy.

(Reporting by Jim Wolf; Editing by Toni Reinhold and Carol Bishopric)

 

[Rish]

Taiwan urges U.S. to sell it F-16 jets

Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:22am EDT
By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Taiwan's envoy urged the United States on Tuesday to clear the sale of advanced Lockheed Martin Corp F-16 fighter jets as soon as possible, putting the Bush administration in an awkward spot ahead of the Beijing Olympics.

The potential $4.9 billion deal for 66 advanced F-16 C/D models is strongly opposed by China, as are all U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Critics say the Bush administration has been stalling, at least until after the summer games starting August 8 that Bush is scheduled to attend.

"We hope that the U.S. administration will approve the requested sale as soon as possible," Joseph Wu, the outgoing chief representative in Washington, told Reuters in an emailed reply to a query.

"We believe that Taiwan's acquisition of additional F-16s ... will do much to enhance Taiwan's air defense and at the same time improve stability across the Taiwan Strait," he said.

Wu said it was also in U.S. interests, an apparent reference to the danger that a cross-straits conflict might draw in U.S. troops.

Wu, who is to leave in coming weeks, was speaking for the government of Taiwan, said Eddie Tsai, a spokesman for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, the de facto embassy.

The new F-16s would supplement 150 F-16A/B models sold to Taiwan by George W. Bush's father, the first President Bush, in 1992.

Taiwan first asked to buy new F-16s last year after breaking a long partisan deadlock in parliament over arms purchases and approving substantial funding for the aircraft.

The Bush administration has refused to accept formal paperwork needed to process the request, according to the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, which represents about 100 companies doing business in Taiwan, including contractors such as Lockheed Martin.

TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT

In response, the State Department said the administration faithfully carries out the Taiwan Relations Act, a 1979 law under which the United States sells arms and services for Taiwan's self-defense.

"There is an internal, interagency process for the U.S. government to consider sales to Taiwan," said Gonzalo Gallegos, a department spokesman. "When the interagency process achieves a final decision for any specific arms sale we will notify Congress."

Wu made his remarks after the business council, now chaired by Paul Wolfowitz, a former deputy secretary of defense under Bush, accused the administration of "blatantly" tampering with the U.S. arms sales process.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the council's president, said in an interview that the Bush administration in effect had frozen eight potential arms deals sought by Taiwan valued at a total of more than $11 billion. Among these, he said, were Lockheed/ Raytheon Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile and anti-aircraft interceptors plus Black Hawk utility helicopters built by United Technologies Corp's Sikorsky unit.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are fraught with complications. They are all but required by the 1979 law that switched U.S. diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing. It says the president and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such sales "based solely on their judgment of the needs of Taiwan".

China, which regards Taiwan as its own territory, opposes such sales as interference in its domestic affairs. Beijing vows to use force if necessary to bring Taiwan under mainland rule.

Asked last month about Taiwan's request for F-16s, John Negroponte, the U.S. deputy secretary of state, told a Senate committee the administration was awaiting developments after the election of a new president, Ma Ying-jeou, sworn-in on May 20.

The request initially was stiff-armed amid Bush administration concern over independence-minded moves by former president Chen Shui-bian deemed provocative toward Beijing.

The United States has many reasons to avoid angering China, including the Beijing-hosted six-party talks aimed at rolling back and eventually scrapping North Korea's nuclear materials and programs.

Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon's No. 1 supplier by sales, "greatly respects Taiwan's efforts to defend itself and appreciates Taiwan's interest in new F-16s," Tom Jurkowsky, a company spokesman, said in an emailed statement.

Richard Bush (no relation to President Bush), a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, said holding off on Taiwan's F-16 request until after the Olympics was "a good way to balance our various interests." The American Institute in Taiwan serves as the de facto U.S. embassy.

(Reporting by Jim Wolf; Editing by Toni Reinhold and Carol Bishopric)

That's interesting. I don't know about anyone else's views, but it seems logical to me that China is coming to be more assertive after the Olympic games due to an increase in prestige. Could the Taiwanese government be preparing for such an assertive Chinese government by increasing its numbers?

 

[Feanor]

Well it's pretty obvious that the RoKAF F-16A/B variants are definetly losing the edge over newer chinese Su-30MKK, Su-30MK2, J-10, and J-11B. They need something to give them a decisive advantage.

 

[Chrom]

Well it's pretty obvious that the RoKAF F-16A/B variants are definetly losing the edge over newer chinese Su-30MKK, Su-30MK2, J-10, and J-11B. They need something to give them a decisive advantage.

Yup. To tell the truth, i dont understand why USA dont hurry up with the sale. Money are always money, and i doubt any sale would shift military balance in Taiwan - China relation too much.

 

[DarthAmerica]

The problem here is that PRC vs ROC vs ROW is everyone thinks they are right. Pure recipe for war. Except that the Bakers are wearing the Generals Stars here on all sides. If you simply take a look at the amount of trade and FDI that would get disrupted it's all but inconceivable that a war would actually happen. Of course there is always the possibility of miscalculation or the occasional incident. But war would take a lot. Ultimately the Taiwanese will decide this issue with Chinese help. If China continues to prosper, becomes more transperent and more acceptable to democratic principles. Taiwan will be absorbed over time in a non-violent way as Hong Kong was. Taiwan will still be Taiwan but under the the Chinese umbrella as a province.

Above is the political setting. The military situation is this. The PRC doesn't have the means to actually invade the island with any realistic chance of success and thats even without U.S./Japanese and possibly Korean intervention. Realistic Chinese military options would include scenarios similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis where China "quarantines" the island in an attempt to starve it into submission. But that would almost certainly provoke the USN to assert freedom of navigation and the PRC would probably not want to have that fight. China could also use their BMs to conduct "punative" bombardment of the island to force compliance. Again though, 1000+ BMs is hardly enough by themselves to force surrender. Also the Taiwanese could strike back at the mainland in some very painful ways.

In the end none of this is very likely despite what the PRC or the DoD say. Both sides use the potential of conflict to their advantage. The PRC uses it to invoke intense nationalism so as to keep the citizens focused on that issue. The DoD uses the PRC as it's "near-peer" competitor any time it wants to convince congress it's time for a high tech shopping spree.

Thats my take on things.

-DA

 

[csubaicai]

Taiwan is not part of China. And your comment about point of history is way off, Taiwan was created based on not supporting Maoist Gov't. By Law, you mean only Chines Law.

In terms of history,in 1860's,most Americans living in southern stats didn't support president Lincoln and his Gov,so you mean those southern stats belong to a new independent Country at that moment,and United States finally invaded and eliminated it,in much the same way United States grabbed Texas from Mexico,right?
In terms of law,I have said several times before,the principle-'Taiwan is always a part of China' which is also written in ROC's constitution has been recognized and accepted by most goverments of the world,not least by the United States,by the way,the Taiwan is a part of China,so you are right,the position of Taiwan is defined by a China's law,I agree.

 

[rabs]

In terms of history,in 1860's,most Americans living in southern stats didn't support president Lincoln and his Gov,so you mean those southern stats belong to a new independent Country at that moment,and United States finally invaded and eliminated it,in much the same way United States grabbed Texas from Mexico,right?

Well, actually Texas willingly joined the United States without the need for a war, after they fought a war with Mexico for their independence. Another factor considered in this that "The Republic of Texas" was merging with another Republic, The United States of America, peacefully. The Civil War scenario is much different than the Taiwan situation. Considering the ROC was until the Chinese civil war, the governing body of China. After losing the civil war they retreated to the Island of Taiwan and have proceeded to set up a rather successful democracy, with higher standard of living than the mainland.

A more accurate comparison to Untied States history, would be the revolutionary war. The reason that the Civil war is unsuitable is for such a comparison of Chinese and American history is that, the Union (North) was the legal body of the US, the south (confederacy) was not. While technically not un-constitutional to separate from the Union, the Union saw it as an act of war from what could indeed be considered a separate country. So the Legitimate governing body, The Union, simply re-took what was taken by a foreign nation.

In the situation of China it is the complete reverse, due to unpopularity with government policies, communist launched a rebellion, forcing the, at the time, legitimate government of China to the Island of Taiwan. The reason this is like the revolutionary war, is because at that time, the United Kingdom was the legitimate government of what is now the United States. Again, like Chinese communist. Like in China the war was won by the rebels. The difference being that the United States does not lay claim to Canada or Great Britain, which in effect the governing body of United States retreated to after the war.

This relevant due to the fact, that the colonist of the current United States, were indeed British Citizens, so all the land of the British Empire was in fact, their land. After the war was over the United States could have very easily stated that because of the blood lines, that Great Britain and in-fact all possessions of the British Empire belong to the United States, due to the fact that they shared the same blood line as the Britain.

This is indeed, much what china is doing to Taiwan, the Taiwanese lost the war, the retreated to their Great Britain, and seeing the lack of insurgency on Taiwan, the majority of the population seems to agree, that in fact Taiwan is a separate body, from the communist, even if they do believe in a one china policy, that does not mean the prescribe to the One Communist China belief. I believe in world peace, I do not believe in the United States disbanding the entire military, If that makes sense.

Sorry for the long post, I figure no one will read it in the entirety, but I had to say my 25 cents.

 

[kliu1]

KMT.....freeze or unfreeze?

It's funny, the KMT requested the freeze of $12 billion dollars worth of arms, while still wanting to buy the F-16s. I'm pretty sure that the US would only sell the F-16s after the procurement of the $12 billion dollars military equipment including the PAC3 Missiles, Submarines, AH-64D Apache Longbows and the UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters. Because of these actions, it may even prolong and extend the procurement until the next administration, which may prevent Taiwan from buying the equipment. The KMT should not have frozen the $12 billion worth of arms and instead just reply after the conclusion of the cross-strait talks.

 

[Schumacher]

It's funny, the KMT requested the freeze of $12 billion dollars worth of arms, while still wanting to buy the F-16s. I'm pretty sure that the US would only sell the F-16s after the procurement of the $12 billion dollars military equipment including the PAC3 Missiles, Submarines, AH-64D Apache Longbows and the UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters. Because of these actions, it may even prolong and extend the procurement until the next administration, which may prevent Taiwan from buying the equipment. The KMT should not have frozen the $12 billion worth of arms and instead just reply after the conclusion of the cross-strait talks.

Most likely part of some serious bargaining. The KMT government's cross-straits policy has given Taiwan more cards to play in many areas, just look at the recent incident with Japan. I bet they'll be able to bargain for better arms deals for Taiwan than those in the past.

 

[kliu1]

Sure it gives greater cards to play only in cross-strait and regional economic areas. However with closer co-operation with the PRC and closer economic ties, and perhaps the signing of a peace treaty under the KMT government, The US will most likely not sell better weapons as they are extremely sensitive and top secret technology involved in the development of US weapons. The US does not want to give China an advantage and to fly ahead as leader and major superpower in the future. This fear is developed because of greater ties, increased Chinese in Taiwan (possibly to spy on military equipment and bases) and perhaps the future unification of Taiwan which presents a threat to the national security of the United States, as the majority of the weapons sold are advanced and are currently not used or developed by the People's Liberation Army.

 

[King Comm]

as the majority of the weapons sold are advanced and are currently not used or developed by the People's Liberation Army.

Actually, the US never gave Taiwan anything that is significantly more capable than what the main land has, if we look at comparable systems, Su-27SK vs F-16A, S-300PMU vs PAC-2, R-77 vs AIM-120, Sovremmeny vs Kidd, every time, the US only gives Taiwan a tiny qualitative edge over the main land to maintain a balance in the strait.

 

[Scientist]

The main Problem in the Taiwan conflict is exactly that many Chinese (even people with a background in international affairs, ...) but although most western people think that Taiwan is the little brother of the PRC.

That is not correct and has consequences fort he Taiwan - China relationships as well as for inner affairs and politics inside in Taiwan.

If you flight with a Taiwanese Airplane to Taipei, the first thing you realize is, that all the information is spoken in at least three languages. English, mandarin Chinese and a third language: Taiwanese (which is originally a southern Ming dialect, but transformed a lot on the isolation of the Island).
A large part of the population of Taiwan speak mandarin Chinese as a foreign language.

Not because of free choice, but because they were forced to do by another group which occupied Taiwan (and today because of economic reasons), the dissolving army of Chiang Kai-shek. There leaders (speakers of mandarin Chinese) where the new leaders of Millions of Taiwanese (and Hakka and austro – pacific Aboriginals and ...) who where never asked if they want to be part of the R.O.C after they have been a colony of Japan before (and of Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, different pirates, ...).

In a massacre in 1947 ten thousands of Taiwanese were killed by there new friends and brothers from the mainland.

During the military dictatorship (until 1987) it was of course forbidden to speak about this. Taiwan was a part of China (the R.O.C) and the peoples republic in principle, too.

The democracy movement in Taiwan was driven mainly by Taiwanese speaking people. The leaders of the green party (and many people who elect them)are Taiwanese. Many of the officials of the former green government have been in prison during the dictatorship for years.

So we have Chinese people and Taiwanese people (including Taiwanese, Hakka, ...).
The Chinese Party (the blue Party, KMT) and the Taiwanese party (green party).
The green party want an independent Taiwan, independent not only in respect to the peoples republic, but although independence of R.O.C. with there national symbols and Heros of the past, resulting for example in changing the name on the Passports, the Post from R.O.C to Taiwan, or changing the Airports and national memorials name.
This is not to offence the PRC but it is part of an inner conflict in Taiwan.

This is an important background to understand, why even under pressure a unification of Taiwan with China (even after the HongKong model) is not very realistic.

Only the KMT would possibly support this (as they see them self as Chinese). A blue President who would announce this can start to clean his office for his green successor. It is political suicide as Taiwanese and younger Chinese would oppose this (with nearly 100%).

The military option:

1.Unification by military pressure:
Imagine Canada und the UK whould talk about unification, as they speak English are brothers and have the Queen. The UK would support their arguments by there military.
I guess some people in Quebec (after long years of fight) wouldn’t be to impressed by the number of Aircraft carriers.
It is the same in Taiwan.

2. Unification by Occupation:
The world of 20th century depends on Oil. The world of 21st century still depends on Oil, but although on semiconductors.
Taiwan is the most important producer of semiconductors. In many fields they produce more than 80% of the world market. I am not talking about the big stuff, CPU’s and so on, but about the 0,1cent stuff which is used in more or less every product (today even in some shoes and clothe) which is produced in and for the western world. Even a lighter earthquake in Taiwan has significant influence on stocks of high tech companies.
A war in Taiwan means production stop in short time for factories all over the world. You can not build a car if you do not have this little IC you get for a cent from Taiwan.
Would the western world let China occupy Arabia ort he near east? I don’t think so and China knows too (beside the propaganda games). Its not only about counting weapons.

 

[Scientist]

Taiwan as a county and the UN:

Officially (means for most countries in the world) Taiwan is a province of China.
De jure Taiwan can not be a member of the UN. The peoples republic of china represents Taiwan at the UN too.

But: I was in May in Vienna at the United Nations and had an interesting discussion there (we had to stop it in the end, because the guys where a bit afraid if they are allowed to speak about).
The most important organisation in Vienna is the IAEO. Taiwan has (as far as I remember) four Nuclear Power Plants.
From the de jure UN Point of view, the peoples republic of China is responsible for this plants and has to give the control data and access to this facilities to the IAEO.
De facto (beside what they get from spys) this is not possible. So Taiwan works (inofficial) together with the UN like a member country.
There are lots of other examples which show the special status of Taiwan. Taiwan is not Tibet.

 

[Scientist]

If someone is interested in the earlier history of Taiwan and south China (and the connections between this countries), I heard ones in the old Belgium University City of Leuven a very good talk by CHENG, Wei – Chung (University of Leiden) about: From the Privileged Frontier Trade System to an Autonomous Logistical Network: the Rise of Cheng Clans in the Changchou Bay (1640 – 1650). He has although written some books about this time (involving, China, Taiwan and western colonial powers). History is the basis of today’s strategic analysis

 

[Feanor]

Very informative, thank you. Do you think unification is likely? With the growth of modern China it looks like a good option for both sides.

 

[f-22fan12]

Very informative, thank you. Do you think unification is likely? With the growth of modern China it looks like a good option for both sides.

Yeah it might have a better chance of happening with the new KMT government. Direct flights started yesterday. Yet there was also an article on defence talk saying that the new president would put aside money for weapons procurment. I personally don't think to two sides will unify, I just think they will increase cooperation alot.

 

[flashCanada]

The people of taiwan and the USN disagree with you. Taiwan and PROC have not been a single entity for half a century. PROC can pass any law they want with reguards to taiwan, it will have no effect on the island becasue you have no legal power there. Japan could pass a law stateing it has a claim on Manchuria, then that claim would be backed up by law, but would it be legitimate? In every peramiter, even name taiwan is a seperate nation, ethnicity alone is no reason for justification of invasion. Allthough it wasnt needed when Tibet was invaded so I doubt that will stop the PLA, the USN will however.

Tibet was not invaded by PLA, it was reunited to China. Have you ever been to China? Have you ever been to Tibet? Talked with natives in Tibet? Both because it has been a territory of China for thousands of years and the slaves in Tibet (most of Tibetans at that time) were liberated by the PLA, most of the Tibetans are grateful to PLA since 1950. Tibet is the only region that could keep its tax for development instead of hand in some portion of it to the centrol government like other provinces do. Meanwhile, the centrol government has invested a large amount of money in the development of Tibet. I recommend you to go to Tibet and see by your own eyes.
Though the situation is not the same as in Taiwan, the people in mainland and in Taiwan are from the same ethnic, they call themselves "Chinese". I believe that the reunion of Taiwan to the mainland is not long to see.

 

[tphuang]

oh boy, why did you have to bring back this ideological thread. I'm closing this.