Iraqi-Iranian war

[ROCK45]

Iraqi-Iranian war

I always wondered what the Middle East would have been like if Iran won the war and captured all of Iraq? There war ran from September 1980 to August 1998 and both sides withstood heavy losses in personnel and equipment. Think about the basic changes in the borders and the fact that Syria and Iran would share a border together. Israel might even have Iranian troops on its border if allowed by Syria. Turkey would share more border territory with Iran as well as the Saudis. Captured Iraqi and Iranian oil could be pipe through Syria to ports on the Med. If Iran’s air force moved there Su-24s to eastern Iraq Israel and many other countries would face a more direct threat then currently. I’m interested in what other changes or impact Iranian forces might have in they won the war and took control over Iraq? What would be some of the issues the countries around Iraq’s former border would have to deal with? What if Syria gave or allowed Iran to access to a ports year around and stationed ships there? I’m looking for views and opinions on what would the region be like if this happen? Thanks

 

[ROCK45]

Turkey

I think the US would have deployed more forces to Turkey and maybe some heavy armor units from Europe.

Since Jordan receives/buys F-16s from the US, would they be threaten by Iran?

Combining both Iran's and Iraq's oil together under a single control might have some effect on the worlds oil market.

Would the Saudi's request US forces to be deploy on there soil?

Does Kuwait get a long with Iran would they be threaten?

How would effect the Kurds?

 

[Chrom]

Nothing would change. Iran could well win the war against Iraq but it couldnt occupy it. The very same case is Israel vs Syria or Egypt.

 

[deathomen]

i wanted to ask what was egypts role in the war ?? is it true that egypt sent generals to help plan the iraqi offensive plan ??
im sorry for speaking outside the subject ....

 

[eaf-f16]

Iraqi-Iranian war

I always wondered what the Middle East would have been like if Iran won the war and captured all of Iraq? There war ran from September 1980 to August 1998 and both sides withstood heavy losses in personnel and equipment. Think about the basic changes in the borders and the fact that Syria and Iran would share a border together. Israel might even have Iranian troops on its border if allowed by Syria. Turkey would share more border territory with Iran as well as the Saudis. Captured Iraqi and Iranian oil could be pipe through Syria to ports on the Med. If Iran’s air force moved there Su-24s to eastern Iraq Israel and many other countries would face a more direct threat then currently. I’m interested in what other changes or impact Iranian forces might have in they won the war and took control over Iraq? What would be some of the issues the countries around Iraq’s former border would have to deal with? What if Syria gave or allowed Iran to access to a ports year around and stationed ships there? I’m looking for views and opinions on what would the region be like if this happen? Thanks

A 1991 Gulf War scenario would happen with a US-led Arab coalition to liberate Iraq and devastate Iran.

If the US and Arab states were not to liberate Iraq under this scenario (highly unlikely) then the Iranian Army would be driven out in 3-5 years time (maybe less) by a Sunni and Iraqi nationalist insurgency.

 

[eaf-f16]

i wanted to ask what was egypts role in the war ?? is it true that egypt sent generals to help plan the iraqi offensive plan ??
im sorry for speaking outside the subject ....

IIRC, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Canada, France, the US and Britain all played a role in planning the Gulf war (but I think mostly the US).

I think the reason the Egyptian Minister of Defense (Tantawi) is in the position he is in now is because he was one of the commanders of the coalition.

Egypt had a major role in the 1991 Gulf War so it would most likely have a major role in a liberation of Iraq from Iran scenario.

 

[s3kiz]

A 1991 Gulf War scenario would happen with a US-led Arab coalition to liberate Iraq and devastate Iran.

If the US and Arab states were not to liberate Iraq under this scenario (highly unlikely) then the Iranian Army would be driven out in 3-5 years time (maybe less) by a Sunni and Iraqi nationalist insurgency.

I agree with whats written above.

Presuming such an Iran>Iraq scenario did happen and a US, Arab (+Turkish coalition) did not result and drive Iran out of occupied Iraq. I suspect a "local solution" could have developed in the M-E.

Like eaf-f16 touched, the local Iraqis and other Arab nations would support anti-Iranian resistance in occupied Iraq, even if Iran was able to hold on to southern Iraqi Shiite areas, I think a different front would have developed in the long run against such an expanded Iran.

Considering that nearly half of Irans population are Azeri Turks, Turkiye would not have stayed at rest with an expanded Iran swallowing Iraq and the gulf area, so I suspect Iran with new gained Shiite territories from Iraq, would probably have had lost its northern sections with Azeri Turkish populations to Turkiye, giving Turkiye a land bridge between its and Azerbaijans territory that exist now, connecting a Turkish land mass from east europe to central asia.

Although Turkiye and Iran have not warred for centuries (!), such an offensive and expanding Iran would not be wanted by Turkiye, giving it "moral rights" to play her cards as well.

Anyway M-E has more than enough human suffering, I wish for peace for the region.

Cheers.

 

[eckherl]

Iraqi-Iranian war

I always wondered what the Middle East would have been like if Iran won the war and captured all of Iraq? There war ran from September 1980 to August 1998 and both sides withstood heavy losses in personnel and equipment. Think about the basic changes in the borders and the fact that Syria and Iran would share a border together. Israel might even have Iranian troops on its border if allowed by Syria. Turkey would share more border territory with Iran as well as the Saudis. Captured Iraqi and Iranian oil could be pipe through Syria to ports on the Med. If Iran’s air force moved there Su-24s to eastern Iraq Israel and many other countries would face a more direct threat then currently. I’m interested in what other changes or impact Iranian forces might have in they won the war and took control over Iraq? What would be some of the issues the countries around Iraq’s former border would have to deal with? What if Syria gave or allowed Iran to access to a ports year around and stationed ships there? I’m looking for views and opinions on what would the region be like if this happen? Thanks

Iran would of never been in a position to win that war, because the reason being everyone including the U.S scrambled to get weapons and training to Iraq. We were actually training Iraqi officers at Fort Knox Armor Center just prior to the 2nd Gulf War. Everyone in that region understood the importance of not giving Iran the upper hand when it comes to power and influence.

 

[ROCK45]

Unlikely

Thanks everybody I pick up a few things and learned a little.

 

[enigmaticuk]

Its an excellent topic to discuss with the current situation on the ground in iraq. If the US were to pull its forces rapidly from iraq in the future im sure you would see a concerted effort by iran to further its control politically over iraq. Perhaps you wouldnt see overt military action but that wouldnt be needed with proxy iraqi political leaders in control. This is why some of our leaders are saying that US forces will need to reamin in iraq for the forseeable future to counter this threat.

 

[ROCK45]

Change of borders

I thought it would interesting if Syria gave Iran permission to deploy forces of some kind in there country even if was a coastal naval base and a Brigade or two of troops? I would have thought it would have had some effect on the European countries if it happen. I don't have a list of Iraqi oil customer's some must be European? Isn't having a safe semi controlled source of oil important? And maybe politically countries in North Africa might be a affective with a direct Iranian presents on the Med? Maybe Syria wouldn't want Iranian forces in there country for fear of being overthrown as well? I can assume the Saudi's, Turkey, and Israeli wouldn't like it. Maybe what eckherl said would have rain true and Iran would have not been allowed to win. I realized that Iran isn't in a position to project military power on a such a large scale but over the time eight, nine, maybe ten plus years that might change. They would control more of the worlds oil supply and be on the Kingdom's border. I think if they would have won and been allowed to exploit Iraq I think it would have had a major effect on the region. It would have been a difficult feat to pull off.