Taiwan and the PRC

[Zechariah]

Hi, I came across this forum and found all the talk about Taiwan Vs. PRC quite amusing. I never knew there was so much interest in our little island. As a resident of Taiwan, I think most of you have thought about this a lot more than we have. I really think the probability of the PRC taking military action against Taiwan is close to zero.

I have a few reasons

1. There is nothing to gain from such an attack. If china were to control Taiwan through military force it would prove an even more ridiculously costly affair than the US in Iraq.
2. Taiwan is the largest foreign investor in mainland China.
3. The mainland can't even govern itself. They don't have time to really consider such an invasion.

I know a lot of you know a lot more about military history and strategy than I, so I'm curious to see what you think.

 

[Firehorse]

Well, welcome to our forum!
I had visited Taiwan in 1998, and would like to come back again.
Why do you say "If china were to control Taiwan through military force it would prove an even more ridiculously costly affair than the US in Iraq."?
And, even as "Taiwan is the largest foreign investor in mainland China.", leaders of the PRC may still believe that Taiwan may have more to gain by going the Hong Kong way. Political and economic considerations aren't always ther same!

 

[xien]

ya,as a normal chinese we never want to control Taiwan,we still think we are brother.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

as a normal chinese we never want to control Taiwan,we still think we are brother.

Then why do Chinese frequently say that they would back a war to seize control of Taiwan if it declared independence?

 

[xien]

Then why do Chinese frequently say that they would back a war to seize control of Taiwan if it declared independence?

so if it did not declare independence,everything is ok.we just want hold zhe the balance of asia.china never take zhe war first

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

we just want hold zhe the balance of asia.china never take zhe war first

But you would be making war first if you invaded Taiwan. No one has to start a war because independence is declared - has Serbia invaded Kosovo?

Also China is currently upsetting the balance of power in Asia because it is increasing its military spending far faster than any of the other powers in the region.

 

[Vladimir1918]

But you would be making war first if you invaded Taiwan. No one has to start a war because independence is declared - has Serbia invaded Kosovo?

Also China is currently upsetting the balance of power in Asia because it is increasing its military spending far faster than any of the other powers in the region.

a fast increase indeed.
however, the starting point of the PLA is also much lower than you think.
Everything they do so far is not try to get ahead, but to catch up with her neighbors.

 

[csubaicai]

Hi, I came across this forum and found all the talk about Taiwan Vs. PRC quite amusing. I never knew there was so much interest in our little island. As a resident of Taiwan, I think most of you have thought about this a lot more than we have. I really think the probability of the PRC taking military action against Taiwan is close to zero.

I have a few reasons

1. There is nothing to gain from such an attack. If china were to control Taiwan through military force it would prove an even more ridiculously costly affair than the US in Iraq.
2. Taiwan is the largest foreign investor in mainland China.
3. The mainland can't even govern itself. They don't have time to really consider such an invasion.

I know a lot of you know a lot more about military history and strategy than I, so I'm curious to see what you think.

According what you said above,I am not sure whether you are a resident of the island,but there is one policy or red line which everyone that care about the island especailly including the residents of the island should clear,is that the futher of Taiwan is decided by all Chinese people,not merely the people who are living in Taiwan,because Taiwan is part of China and this principle is supported not only in point of history but also in point of law.And please give up your idea,frankly,it is naive.

 

[csubaicai]

But you would be making war first if you invaded Taiwan. No one has to start a war because independence is declared - has Serbia invaded Kosovo?

Also China is currently upsetting the balance of power in Asia because it is increasing its military spending far faster than any of the other powers in the region.

I am not sure what the President Lincoln in the history of US was famous for,was he famous for his surrender policy when some Southern stats declared independence in the middle of 19 century?
About the issue of Serbia,I want to let you know:
1.The abruption of Serbia and Kosovo is a bad precedent which is made by US government.
2.I notice that there are different ethnic,different religion,different culture and different history in Serbia and Kosovo area,but there is not so much difference in both side of Taiwan strait,on the contrary,there exist a lot of tightly relations between the strait.
3.The most important which you have to notice is that China is not Serbia,Kosovo is not Taiwan neither.And the United States is not the United States before the invasion of iraq in 2003.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

According what you said above,I am not sure whether you are a resident of the island,but there is one policy or red line which everyone that care about the island especailly including the residents of the island should clear,is that the futher of Taiwan is decided by all Chinese people,not merely the people who are living in Taiwan,because Taiwan is part of China and this principle is supported not only in point of history but also in point of law.And please give up your idea,frankly,it is naive.

The people of taiwan and the USN disagree with you. Taiwan and PROC have not been a single entity for half a century. PROC can pass any law they want with reguards to taiwan, it will have no effect on the island becasue you have no legal power there. Japan could pass a law stateing it has a claim on Manchuria, then that claim would be backed up by law, but would it be legitimate? In every peramiter, even name taiwan is a seperate nation, ethnicity alone is no reason for justification of invasion. Allthough it wasnt needed when Tibet was invaded so I doubt that will stop the PLA, the USN will however.

 

[Generalissimo]

2. Taiwan is the largest foreign investor in mainland China.

I'm pretty sure that's the US. China is probably Taiwan's largest foreign market though.

 

[csubaicai]

The people of taiwan and the USN disagree with you. Taiwan and PROC have not been a single entity for half a century. PROC can pass any law they want with reguards to taiwan, it will have no effect on the island becasue you have no legal power there. Japan could pass a law stateing it has a claim on Manchuria, then that claim would be backed up by law, but would it be legitimate? In every peramiter, even name taiwan is a seperate nation, ethnicity alone is no reason for justification of invasion. Allthough it wasnt needed when Tibet was invaded so I doubt that will stop the PLA, the USN will however.

Firstly,because of your sciolistic history knowledge of China and the afraid of webmaster's doubt about off-topic,I have to metion you that you'd better stop mix some other issues here.If you are intresting in the issue concerning Manchuria and Tibet,please initial some new threads so that we could discuss them.I briefly introduce my attitude about the Manchuria and Tibet,the reality of Manchuria and Tibet nowadays including Taiwan is decided by history.
Secondly,I advice you read the constitution of Taiwan and the declarations of US government concerning Taiwan after 1979 besides the laws of PROC concerning Taiwan,before you make believe Taiwan has been a single entity in law.

 

[crobato]

In every peramiter, even name taiwan is a seperate nation,

There was never Taiwan as a name of a separate nation in all its history. The title is "Republic of China".

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

The ROC title is remenance of nationalist china being a sore looser. The fact is that economically, politically, militarilly, internationally & legaly (domestically) Taiwan is a seperate entity to China and has been for 50 years. Ethnicity alone is no justification, Australia and the UK are ethnically very similar, same as Canada. Does that give the UK a right to invade Australia, or Australia to Canada? Guys the civil war is over, the communist party won and is the legitimate government of China, that has been recognised by most of the world since the 70's. However this lingering contention by Taipei and Bejing is a remenant of the past. Realistically Taiwan IS a seperate entity in all the ways that mater. On the ground a "formal" declaration of indipendance would change nothing, in real terms they have been an indipendant nation for half a century. The fact is that while the majority of the Taiwanese people want indipendance or at least the status quo fighting a currently unwinable war over it is pointless IMHO.

As for Manchuria and Tibet, well the comment on manchuria had absoloutly nothing to do with manchuria, just the vauge nature of "legal" claims to soverignty. Tibet, well your right that is a totally seperate issue.

 

[xien]

yes,the UN also say Taiwan is one part of China.Someone say China is increasing its military spending far faster than any of the other powers in the region,why dont you look at Japan.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

yes,the UN also say Taiwan is one part of China.Someone say China is increasing its military spending far faster than any of the other powers in the region,why dont you look at Japan.

Japan is constitutionally limited to keeping defence spending to under 1% of GDP. So in real terms they cant match PROC's increased spending unless they change their constitution, therefore whets your point?

 

[xien]

First the GDP of Japan is double of China,judge one countrys military power is not only by the number of army but also by the quality.in fact chinese army equipment is bader than many country

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

I think the question of whether the Chinese Govt will attack Taiwan can only be answered by the chinese Govt.

I don't claim to know what the Chinese Govt will do, still, a study of the chinese communists and china's history as a whole reveal a few interesting facts.

Territorial integrity is a fundamental basis of chinese national thinking at the government level. This is underlined all the way before the 1840s opium war through the boxer rebellion to the 1911 revolution, past the second world war to the 1949 communist victory and beyond.

The chinese even fought a nuclear power sanctioned by the UN with UN allies over Korea.

The works of Mao Tse Tong, Deng Xiao Ping and Jiang Zemin is replete with their thoughts to the Taiwan question. In particular Mao's views on the use of armed force is illuminating.

As a student of chinese history, it is my humble opinion that the chinese communist politburo would engage in a war over Taiwan. The only question is to what extent and on what basis.

What the chinese would definitely not do is to engage in a war where there is no chance of victory. What it will do is to create the conditions as to maximise its chances.

Could Taiwan breakaway without ever resulting in a war? There are preceding cases eg Korea, Amur, Sikkim, Mongolia. However, the difference is whether the Chinese leadership continue to regard the territory as core chinese territory. It does at the present. Whether it will in the future remains to be seen.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Everything they do so far is not try to get ahead, but to catch up with her neighbors.

Chinese defence spending is larger than any other Asian power - they've already overtaken their neighbours in that regard. Also no one in their right minds believes the Chinese figures - even SIPRI says it's considerably higher.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

yes,the UN also say Taiwan is one part of China.

No, it doesn't. It recognises Beijing as the Chinese government. Find me a UN resolution that says Beijing controls Tibet.

Someone say China is increasing its military spending far faster than any of the other powers in the region,why dont you look at Japan.

Because Japan's has been fixed at 1% of GDP for ages - it is barely rising at all.