Balance of Power

[Merlöwe]

This is somewhat a continuation of the Naval Power balance thread in the Navy section on the forum. I looked to see if there was an older thread similar to this, but I didnt find it. I dont know if this counts in Defence talk or WorldAffairs, so please excuse me if I have posted this in the wrong place.

Anyways, how do you think the balance of power will change in the next 25-30 years. It seems obvious that the European armies will slowly fade from importance, same with Japan. China and India are going to be major regional/international powers with their large populations and growing economies. Perhaps not so much for India, it still has a ways to go.

Africa isn't going to be anything but a footnote until they get their act together. America will still stay as the worlds sole remaining superpower, unless we burn ourselves out from "conflicts" and go isolationist again.

What do you think? Your input will be enjoyed.

It can be both ways (defence a well as int. affairs). So I think its ok to be discussed here.

-SABRE

 

[SABRE]

Not easy to answer but the most agreed upon theory is that the world is moving towards multipolarity - meaning more than 1 or 2 powers. & the power pattern is more in shift towards Asia. Europe as a whole is a significant factor. Military & Economic nexuses (in my view) are very important so EU & NATO are something to look at.

However, I see great divide in the West itself = Europe detaching itself from US to emerge as a World Power & for that I wouldn't be shocked if they start to drop out from NATO. We are already seeing trouble in NATO in Afghanistan. This would free Europe from American military commitments. The Europeans are moving towards their own Military Industries than American (though I still see them buying F-16s & certain other military equipments from USA - so there still would be significant American presence & not to forget that Britain still remains Pro-American).

In Asia Japan would remain an important factor but the whole ship would be commanded by the Chinese regardless of American siding of the Indians (again my perception). The state which gathers more allies will be a greater power in Asia & China already has a good number of friends (which it treats as a friend & not just a 2nd grade ally) at its borders & beyond. Almost all the states bordering India are pro-China. China has already gone global while India plans to. On the front China doesn't pose any threat to India going global but behind the curtains it helps its friends/allies to drag India back into regional affairs.

However, if would still take sometime for the entire pattern to change - unless there is a great war.

 

[lobbie111]

This is a question no-one really knows the answer too really... But heres my thoughts,

The US although important will not be in the spotlight, It can't keep going the way it is and because of the way its put itself economically (with the predicted recesion and all not saying it will happen though).

Europe, hello power, Europe in my eyes are the winds of change setting the example on how a united union can function although it may have some hard slog correcting its mistakes and others mistakes and will probably be expected to take up the slack on international peacekeeping etc.

Africa although will not rise at all it will become more dominatn in internal affairs (African Union etc.) and will probably right itself and put it on the path to that of the model of the EU.

The middle East will become like south East asia after vietnam forgotten (not saying it will be either richer or poorer though).

South America will keep going the way its going although it will probably develop its own industrial capability.

China will become the big bad enemy of the west, I think Russia and china have a lot to talk about, Im not saying that there will be another cold war put it will come close, I also see china loosing its economic prosperity as more and more countries realise they cannot depend on china for everything especially if it decides I dont like you one day.

Just my 2 c

 

[Jon K]

Anyways, how do you think the balance of power will change in the next 25-30 years. It seems obvious that the European armies will slowly fade from importance, same with Japan. China and India are going to be major regional/international powers with their large populations and growing economies. Perhaps not so much for India, it still has a ways to go.

Balance of power is always heavily dependant upon economic power. Thus China and India will rise, Russia will not unless something dramatic happens with Russian demographics. Economic power is also the basis of military power. As we speak about what could happen in 30 years and that Europe, for example, may fade in importance, one must also present a different view.

During 20th Century the US showed how to construct a military power with a global reach within five years and France showed in WW I how a well-motivated country could become a military powerhouse in very short time despite severe conditions. Citizens of today are much better educated than those of the 20th century, they could be more easily turned into military specialists should need arise. Production techniques have also vastly improved.

Of course it is correct to say for example about navies that it takes three years to build a ship but three hundred to build a tradition. However, even in naval expansion we can see historical precedents. Imperial German Navy became a world stage player in just ten years.

One might even think that there could be a certain late-comer advantage, as a new player would be able to learn from everyone else's mistakes.

So, IMHO, we should expect surprises.

 

[whodunit]

Economic power plays a huge role but economic power is fuelled by technology. Economies dont grow without technology.

25-30 years is not a long time especially for BRIC's and developing countries. A big factor in this are the alliances involved.

China is relatively isolated other than the relations with developing communist countries. This by itself is a non-factor. They have no influence what so ever. Not to mention Indonesia and Philippines are much closer to the US. Although Indonesia being predominantly Muslim is hindering US-Indo relations.

In the long run its about relations and military might. The only way to grow right now is to have good relations with either Korea & Japan in Asia, the US or Europe.

Economic power is derived from trade and new innovative technology once you reach convergence and there is a physical limit as to how much any economy can trade so its really about relations.

As for the #1 economy, its undoubtedly going to be India. Alot of people keep mentioning China but 3 things will prevent this. China has way too many territorial ambitions and there is a good chance in the future that Tibet & Turkestan will split. India's population hence economy, is going to be much larger than China. India has much better relations with the rest of the world. There are no embargos on India but there are/were massive ones on China, not to mention India is democratic with historic ties to Britain.

 

[s3kiz]

Considering that the question put forward is primarily concerning the setting of global power balances 25-30 years from now, I dont think too much will change. The next 2-3 decades will be a transition period to the changes in world power balances we will see in mid-century and on.

The world is going thru the initiall stages of change which was triggered with the disintegration of Soviet union and the lifting of the segregation in europe and its unification and re-settlement to its inherit nature. This and in addition with the natural evolution of asia we have been witnessing in the past decades will come into effect in the coming days all the way till the 25-30 years from now.

I believe that we will continue to see the one-polar power balance with USA occupying the seat of power for a few more decades However, while the USA continuing on its reign of power, the seeds that have been put a few decades before will start to yield new local power players heading to change that and in the 25-30 years time frame from now we will only continue to see them develop their transitions into individual and conglomerate players for the new world power balance.

If we are to detail each of these players, we can start with Europe, namely the EU. In the context of everything going well and the various EU countries manage to further the bond between them creating an empire encompassing europe as a whole both in width and depth, I see EU gradually drifting away from the USA power center, further unifiying its economy and politics, culturally creating a “europeness” above nationality, and eventually raising a singular military force and with national forces been tied to this EU military. Such a development leading in cohesion with an independent EU international politics and ambitions, totally seperated from USA and even rival to it.

While we have this going on the european continent, another force as we know will develop in asian continent. I see China to grow “big” in capability and national sence, project her needs globaly, Chinese economy is bound to grow exponentially, and I suspect will surpass the USA economy and the emerging “European Empire” so to say. This economic might will with it bring technological and thus military capability, equally that of the USA, perhaps not in 25-30 years time, but in the mid-century time frame like i underlined above.

Russia I suspect will continue to develop and get richer in its natural borders (close to) we see her currently, I do not see the possibility of Russia venturing or been able to expand to old empire borders it once had, perhaps even shrink a bit more considering the multitude of aboriginal Turkish and other ethnicities under current Russian borders. I think Russia will develop both economically and technologically to what Germany is now, maybe with less technological/economical prospects.

Iran is a grey matter, currently there can be drawn many scenarios as to where and how Iran will be in 25-30 years time, but I suspect its Picture to change dramatically, with the Azeri Turkish population there joining Azerbaijan, I think Iran will be neutralized until that time primarilly by USA. And will continue to exist and develop into a “new engineered-Iran”. But definatelly not a world power quite the contrary will lose some of its regional status.

In south asia India will continue to develop and prosper, however the 25-30 years will not allow it leap into global arena, but it will be a local superpower, gradually prospering and its people benefiting from this.

In southeast asia, Austalia will continue the benefits of its geographical isolation and the lack historical burdens like wars/enemies, getting further populated with people from other parts of the world that struggle in this race, namely from indo-china, africa and mid-east. I see the potential of Austalia as turning out to be the new frontier for people like USA was at the turn of the 19th century.

Of course africa and middle-east will continue their developments, without having international power potentials, but hopefully developing, evolving and propering to higher levels with a reduction of conflicts and civil strife.

If im to round up this personal projection, like many, I see in 25-30 years time 3 possible world power players, USA, European Empire and China, with India and Australia been regional players and mid-east, african countries having their own micro-regional evolvment underway.

Now, having said that USA will continue its global power domination, European Empire, and China becoming new rivals, all these players will need a continued and greatly increased need for energy resources.

This is the vital and pivotal point in which how the global power race between USA, European Empire and China will be dependent on their race to and past 25-30 years from now.

And it is on this specific point central asia, and thus the Turkish identity will come into effect.
Considering many energy resources lay and are in transition in this specific geography, namely the Anatolian (where Turkiye is) and the Turkistan (currently with countries like Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakistan, Kirgizistan) areas. Although there is this geostrategical aspect of this vast region, there is another aspect that will come into play and be clearly visible in the next 25-30 years time.

And that is the cultural heritage the various countries that occupy this land, although there have been nearly a century of Soviet segregation and a regime distancing the people inhabiting these lands, and although currently majority of these countries are governed by ex-Soviet raised regimes, the Turkish cultural bond between these people will transfor them into a unison and perhaps the forming up of a political, economic and military Turkish Union between them.

Up to recent times many meetings between all these Turkish countries were held, with speak of slowly forming bodies and unions, and recently Turkish Union was formed last year, to form a above-national parliment, with PMs elected from each Turkish nation to represent each other and elect Presidency. The aims of this Turkish Union Parliment was drawn as unity in cultural, political, economic, international affairs and a common defence. Although it is in its infancy, the bonds are great, with each of the of the other Turkish countries sending tens of thousands of students to study in universities in Turkiye, hundreds of elementary, high schools and universities been opened by Turkiye in the other Turkish countries. This cooperation is also been going on with defence related matters, with thousands of Azeri, Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmen, Kirgiz military personnel been trained in Turkiye, and officers from Turkiye been actively training their counterparts in the other Turkish countries.

In the next 25-30 years I suspect that this Turkish Union will expand and develop into what EU is currently. And any global power balance between our ally USA, European Empire and China in future will be highly dependent on this Turkish Union. Affecting the outcome of developments and distinguishing the global power balances post 2050.

Hoping for a better, more prosperous and peacefull world for all global citizens.

Cheers.

 

[Chrom]

China is relatively isolated other than the relations with developing communist countries. This by itself is a non-factor. They have no influence what so ever. Not to mention Indonesia and Philippines are much closer to the US. Although Indonesia being predominantly Muslim is hindering US-Indo relations.

China - member of UN security council. India is not. Shows how much China is really isolated. Who produce most worlds electronic and other goods? India? Or China? Again, shows how much China is isolated... Do not mistake USA and even EU with the rest of the World.

In the long run its about relations and military might. The only way to grow right now is to have good relations with either Korea & Japan in Asia, the US or Europe.

Or better, with BRIC. And rest of the world.

Economic power is derived from trade and new innovative technology once you reach convergence and there is a physical limit as to how much any economy can trade so its really about relations.

Thats why China is much more powerfull than India - both economicaly, military and politically. China simply have more money, better education, and higher technology.

As for the #1 economy, its undoubtedly going to be India. Alot of people keep mentioning China but 3 things will prevent this. China has way too many territorial ambitions and there is a good chance in the future that Tibet & Turkestan will split.

China territorial ambitions are fairly minor for such large country. And all of them dont worth any substancial military conflicts. Except Taiwan ofc. Tibet dont play any role in China economic, and it will not split anyway unless China is seriously, fatal weakened. And at that case it China is doomed anyway...

India's population hence economy, is going to be much larger than China. India has much better relations with the rest of the world. There are no embargos on India but there are/were massive ones on China, not to mention India is democratic with historic ties to Britain.

Hmm.. Much large - how much LARGE? Keep in mind, right now India have less population than China - and indian peoples die from hunger in millions every year. Chinese peoples - do not die. The merits of true democracy, i guess...
http://fractalenlightenment.blogspot.com/2007/10/india-ranks-high-on-hunger-scale.html

 

[Chino]

Every government of China - since time began - had been corrupt. China can have democratically-elected government tomorrow and it'll still be a corrupt one. Probably worse... for in a democracy, you can't shoot government officials for corruption, which Chicom at least does.

 

[eliaslar]

@s3kiz
The Turkish Union may in the future take as members non turkish origin nations but with large Turkish populations and so become an islamic union?
If that happens i don't think that Turkey will have so many allies in the future because she will create something that all western world fears and fights for the last 1000 years, a powerful muslim union which everyone knows how powerful may become.
If such a union was to take place it would have taken place in the middle east a long time ago, in the timeline i would place it somewhere after 1000AD, but that didn't happen for various reasons.

 

[s3kiz]

.......in the future because she will create something that all western world fears and fights for the last 1000 years, a powerful muslim union........
If such a union was to take place it would have taken place in the middle east a long time ago, in the timeline i would place it somewhere after 1000AD, but that didn't happen for various reasons.

Dear eliaslar;

I read your interesting post with some caution and reservations. Nevertheless I must point out a couple of things that strike me.

1) I never knew that for the last 1000 years all western world was in such a state of hate and agression as to be fighting the muslim world like you claim. So according to you the Crusades are still on going?

2) for your argument on your hypothesised "muslim union" in future, you claim if it was to occur it would have occured in the middle east "somewhere in 1000AD", well actually something like that did evolve remember the Seljuk and the Ottoman Empires.

3) You claimed that if Turkish Union does happen resulting into a greater "muslim-union", that Turkiye will not have many allies etc. 99% of the Turkiyes population is muslim now, although she is a secular democracy most of the cultural traditions come from Turkish-Islamic heritage, why do we have allies now, technically including your country Greece? . The world needs to over come this prejudice "if its muslim, run away" mentality.

I'm not even going to ask about an Orthodox union between Russia, Greece and Serbia. Its not so simple to categorize.

Anyway I highly do not think a "muslim union" like you claim will occur anywhere in the next 25-30 years, however as you point out such a junction has a possibility of occuring if the Turkish Union was to get its act together and work further on cooperation.

Lets say it will, this leading to the leadership of Turkish Union to non-Turkish muslim nations to take example and perhaps be motivated to form a more functioning muslim-union.

The aims of such a union will be to help the poor, improve the farming-industrial infrastructure across participating nations, and circulate a trading increase.

Such a "muslim-union" you invisiage will not be lead by "turban-wearing-bomb-wrapped-i'll blow you if you dont do what i say-demented-people" eliaslar, that is the engineered-fake-islam/muslims nwo bosses in cooperation with secret services create.

Seeing it this way will be a simplistic way of looking and away from logicalitiy and reasoning, perhaps due to personal prejudice, fears or national ambitions one might have.

Anyway, lets not turn this into a Turk-Greek thing dear eliaslar, lets try to answer/contribute to the threads topic, rather than throwing "fuel material" between us.

Cheers.

 

[crobato]

China is relatively isolated other than the relations with developing communist countries. This by itself is a non-factor. They have no influence what so ever. Not to mention Indonesia and Philippines are much closer to the US. Although Indonesia being predominantly Muslim is hindering US-Indo relations.

Really? Tell that to the Philippines now. Their president and top politicians are embroiled on scandals that involve PRC business money.

 

[Atilla [TR]]

Up to recent times many meetings between all these Turkish countries were held, with speak of slowly forming bodies and unions, and recently Turkish Union was formed last year, to form a above-national parliment, with PMs elected from each Turkish nation to represent each other and elect Presidency. The aims of this Turkish Union Parliment was drawn as unity in cultural, political, economic, international affairs and a common defence. Although it is in its infancy, the bonds are great, with each of the of the other Turkish countries sending tens of thousands of students to study in universities in Turkiye, hundreds of elementary, high schools and universities been opened by Turkiye in the other Turkish countries. This cooperation is also been going on with defence related matters, with thousands of Azeri, Kazak, Uzbek, Turkmen, Kirgiz military personnel been trained in Turkiye, and officers from Turkiye been actively training their counterparts in the other Turkish countries.

In the next 25-30 years I suspect that this Turkish Union will expand and develop into what EU is currently. And any global power balance between our ally USA, European Empire and China in future will be highly dependent on this Turkish Union. Affecting the outcome of developments and distinguishing the global power balances post 2050.


Cheers.

Lets have our fingers crossed that one day we can become one nation again also if such a one large Turkish country emerged do you think Mongolia will enter to help the really poor people?

 

[Atilla [TR]]

@s3kiz
The Turkish Union may in the future take as members non turkish origin nations but with large Turkish populations and so become an islamic union?
If that happens i don't think that Turkey will have so many allies in the future because she will create something that all western world fears and fights for the last 1000 years, a powerful muslim union which everyone knows how powerful may become.
If such a union was to take place it would have taken place in the middle east a long time ago, in the timeline i would place it somewhere after 1000AD, but that didn't happen for various reasons.

What you just said is stupid and shows an obvious prejudice to Islam and islamic people and Turks, we are peace loving people but we also defend peace. There is a saying in latin Si vis va pacem, parabellium, if you want peace prepare for war. This nation would be a Turkic nation it will be full of people that follow islam but it still will be a Turkic nation. All Turkic nations right now are secular what makes you think that this nation will not be. The only obstacals I see are China and Russia and those are big problems, but both have large internal populations of Turks, and worries over a greater power to the Turks.






Back on topic this is what I think is going to happen NATO is going to fall apart but right before getting bigger, EU is going to get stronger without Turkey, Russia is going to get powerful and better relations with serbia and greece, China more powerful and India and Japanese JSDF is going to become JDF , Australia is going to become more powerful and rich large very large military if going to be developed lots of money invested. Pakistan is going to need some help over issues great issues. U.S is going to leave Iraq and 3 more countries will emerge from the area. Azeri in Iran (20 million) are going to go to the Azerbaijan or the new big Turkic nation. Germanies Turkish population is going to rise to 20% eventually forcefully becoming better ties with Turkey. Italy is not going to change at all!

 

[s3kiz]

I'm not a moderator nor am I trying to be.

But please eliaslar & Atilla, this thread is about world power balance projections 25-30 years from now.

Dont use it for a chance to "hit below the belt" and "counter-punches".

Both Turks and Greeks will have a place in the world 25-30 years from now, and neither us Turks nor Greeks will be a global player in 25-30 years.

If you think either nation will play a role in the developent of the world power balances and effect it in any way, pls explain and put your hypothesis forward, but pls try to refrain from turning the thread into a unproductive one for all. Thank you.

Cheers.

 

[eliaslar]

Of course this will not turn into a Greek-Turkish fight here s3kiz, i just was thinking a scenario of what you said. And you are right it will take a long time before Turkey or Greece become global players, if this ever going to happen.
About the topic now, i see that Russia's power will grow in the years to come. Has everyone saw a map of Russian energy (gas and oil) exports to EU countries and Europe generally? I saw a map recently in a newspaper and the percentages of European countries dependency on Russian energy are very high, includind a number over 20% in Germany. Russia is a key player of European power supply and it keeps exporting more and more to EU, 3 main pipelines are under construction now
1. Burgas - Alexandroupoli pipeline
2. The southstream pipeline, which is a victory over the Nabucco pipeline
3. the Northstream pipeline
Of course European countries, Germany and France mainly, will not be so eager to accept Russia to be close to them but the first steps have been done and i think that after 2015, the relations between them will be not so foggy.
Also EU is not the ally it used to be to the US, Euro in 15 years will be the main currency in the world as professor Jeffrey A. Frankel says
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/euro-could-surpass-dollar-within-ten.html
European countries and US are allies since Europe didn't interfere into US business, but since Europe decided to make common currency then how will they be allies when they have to fight over economic issues. On the other hand i don't say that they will be enemies! Till now EU was watching US playing their game in the world, because it didn't have the strenght to oppose to her but slowly it will start taking it's part in the game.

Even more who would think some years before that Aeroflot would make a proposal to buy Alitalia? Or how many of us here know that a Russian state bank has 5% of EADS in it's hands?
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/12/business/worldbusiness/12eads.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

As a conclusion i see relations between EU and Russia getting better, not that they become a union but they will be very close, i don't forget that Russia has something that EU doens't have, nuclear weapons.

Also a wish, today in Olympia Greece, there was the torch-lightning of the Olympic games in Beijing. In ancient Greece and according to the Greek spirit, 7 days before and 7 days after the Olympic games every war in the Greek states had to stop and become peace for the games to be held.
I wish a peacefull world to all of us, i think we need it.

 

[Atilla [TR]]

Both Turks and Greeks will have a place in the world 25-30 years from now, and neither us Turks nor Greeks will be a global player in 25-30 years.

Cheers.

At the rate Turkey is growing at, we will be near the top.

 

[eliaslar]

Attilla please stay in the bounds of this topic as s3kiz said.

 

[Dutch Nico]

This is somewhat a continuation of the Naval Power balance thread in the Navy section on the forum. I looked to see if there was an older thread similar to this, but I didnt find it. I dont know if this counts in Defence talk or WorldAffairs, so please excuse me if I have posted this in the wrong place.

Anyways, how do you think the balance of power will change in the next 25-30 years. It seems obvious that the European armies will slowly fade from importance, same with Japan. China and India are going to be major regional/international powers with their large populations and growing economies. Perhaps not so much for India, it still has a ways to go.

Africa isn't going to be anything but a footnote until they get their act together. America will still stay as the worlds sole remaining superpower, unless we burn ourselves out from "conflicts" and go isolationist again.

What do you think? Your input will be enjoyed.

It can be both ways (defence a well as int. affairs). So I think its ok to be discussed here.

-SABRE

Hello guys

Nice topic iam no specialist on this case infact iam a little noob here, but when i read this topic i see that alot of people think that; ( Correct me when iam wrong)

The US will be the main worldpower
The EU will be a worldpower and perhaps even a rival to the US
That China en Russia get there shit straith and perhaps become big and powerfull.
And some other country's like; Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey will become major regional players like australia? correct?

When i see today that the US and the EU is spending so mutch money and that the world economy is changing fast towards the east there could be also a option that the US loses power at the globallevel.
Specially that the current war's costing so mutch money and that we still need fuel and other sources of energy.
Think about the impact on the earth itself so there is great need of so many more advance systems to provide energy and cutting edge tools to do the thinks we like to do this all costs loads and huge loads of money and it has to be done now right?
So the US and the EU need time to recover of these money draining problems,
I the meantime we solving problems and in the east the create the cars to transport us from A to B.
Asian country's seem not to worry and are not willing to face the problems we have,... they just sitback, watch, learn and grow from our mistakes.
They do not have these enormous costs but they acctually have the benefits from it because we need our tools they create it at very low cost workplaces in a hightech envirioment.
The EU is learning from the mistakes that russia made during the cold war and is also learning today from the good and the bad so we learning also from the mistakes that the US makes so it really could be a possibility that the EU will rise as a global power. but will fade into the background due economic changes to the east.
But if you see the economy world wide you see that asian country's specially china and indonesia are growing each second for example if you buy a phone or any electronic at all these days you will see mostly thats it made in an asian country (made in taiwan hahahanfloorl: )
So these country's did show they have technic at a moderate even a high level and still perfecting this every day.
They are cheap fast and learning quick from our brightheads and ex russian brightmen and womans so perhaps the asian country's are underrestiamted bigtime, if they keep this up for the next 10 years than they will be the absolute economic powers in the world and that means they will have a option to let there army and tools grow with it to a level that is common to US and EU Standarts this means infact that if you control the world economy for at least 10 years you will be able to gain a massive cash flow and you will also able to raise a voice in world affairs without being left out of the talkings, you might even change the outcome of these affairs to your own good like the US and The EU doing right now.
The US has the power to let almost every country in this world do whatever the like him to do right?
And this is mostly supported by Nato or EU members.
Now for a second try to think myway oke?

China is rising big
Korea and Indonesia and other regional powers in asia are all on the rise in a bullet tempo.

If i walk here in the streets almost everything from cars to phones and computers is made in an asian country.
They will be just as advanced or propably more than we are right now.
If and only if they sucseed to maintain peace and maintain there economic booom like the do right now....then i fear that the US and the EU will fade into the background i mean economic, when it comes to army then the stakes will be even higher because new powers give new problems but ill guess that the US will maintain there strenght maybe a little less or a little more and that the EU will rise slightly to a more mature power russia will gain some benefits from the EU stability and the possible friendship between russia and china and will be able to become a nation that is not a superpower but still a massive player so if they are getting there shit together they could get better.
And afrika?
That a hole new story because they are corrupted and mostly at status of war so it will be great if they sucseed to get the corrupt guys out in 10 / 20 years that would be a major goal of them and perhpas then they will be able to grow a little.
But in that matter iam just a noob so i don't know.

So in my opinion the main changes in global power is that the east will rise and if this happens the west will and have to give a lot of power away to asian country's, because economic power means military power so if the US and the EU loses economic strenght and keep losing it as we do now for the past 10 years than we give othe country's and players in this massive monopoly game a option to catchup and even get further than we are right now, and if my tekst here is Noobtalk in your opinion i at least have to give me this, china is growing faster than the US and EU together and if china keeps this up for the next 10 years do you really think that the Dollar or the Euro will be the main Cash flow? or that we be able to hammerdown the economic grow of asian country's? look at china they got massive embargos against them and still the grow like weed....

Anyway iam just a noob.....
But this is the way i see things based on the reall live out there perhaps iam wrong perhaps iam right


Greetz Dutch Nico

 

[whodunit]

China - member of UN security council. India is not. Shows how much China is really isolated. Who produce most worlds electronic and other goods? India? Or China? Again, shows how much China is isolated... Do not mistake USA and even EU with the rest of the World.

Being in the UN does not mean you are not isolated. There's still an military arms embargo against China and it was only recently that the economic embargo was lifted. Maybe you need to realize what being isolated really means. Cheap labor and being in the UN does not mean you are a big player. Once that cheap labor goes away the only influence you will have is if you open your borders to int'l trade. Truth is no country has a reason to help China.

Thats why China is much more powerfull than India - both economicaly, military and politically. China simply have more money, better education, and higher technology.

Both countries have horrible standards of living. China is marginally better, however India has much better relations with everyone else. In 40 years India will be the #1 economy in the world not China.

China territorial ambitions are fairly minor for such large country. And all of them dont worth any substancial military conflicts. Except Taiwan ofc. Tibet dont play any role in China economic, and it will not split anyway unless China is seriously, fatal weakened. And at that case it China is doomed anyway...

Tibet and Turkestan splitting will cut the country in half, in terms of land size. Territorial ambitions are a big ass warning sign. There's a reason why people ask whether China will rise peacefully, because if they dont they'll get bombed back into the stone age.

Hmm.. Much large - how much LARGE? Keep in mind, right now India have less population than China - and indian peoples die from hunger in millions every year. Chinese peoples - do not die. The merits of true democracy, i guess...

By 2050 India will have 350 million more people. Equivalent to the size of the US. Its time for you to wake up china man.

 

[hallo84]

Being in the UN does not mean you are not isolated.

Political clot vs no political clot.
China can pull its weight in middle east and Africa, India can't plain and simple.

There's still an military arms embargo against China and it was only recently that the economic embargo was lifted. Maybe you need to realize what being isolated really means. Cheap labor and being in the UN does not mean you are a big player. Once that cheap labor goes away the only influence you will have is if you open your borders to int'l trade. Truth is no country has a reason to help China.

Embargo or not China still import hundreds of millions worth of military technology from the west every year. Your theory lack reality.

Look at who the largest ship builders and who's placing orders and you'll get the idea.

Both countries have horrible standards of living. China is marginally better, however India has much better relations with everyone else.

Speak for yourself

In 40 years India will be the #1 economy in the world not China.

India has been saying that for at least 40 years now look at where it is now.

Tibet and Turkestan splitting will cut the country in half, in terms of land size. Territorial ambitions are a big ass warning sign. There's a reason why people ask whether China will rise peacefully, because if they dont they'll get bombed back into the stone age.

Tibet and Turkestan independence have no future.. The West don't care enough to go to war with China.

No one bombs a declared nuclear power without absolute resolution to do so.

By 2050 India will have 350 million more people. Equivalent to the size of the US. Its time for you to wake up china man.

Poverty on the rise...
India can't support 350 million more people. It can barely feed everyone now.
No one looks forward to refugees...