Thought Experiment: Sustainable Russian Military
- Thread starter Jon K
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Arable land means, in current high tech enveronment, much less than 100 years ago. Firstly - with some efforts non-arable land can become arable. Israel and Spain are prime examples here. Second, food can be relative easely purchased on international market. And third, there are VERY large areas in China still almost undeveloped.Oh, common you want to argue that the amount of low grade land per km² is nearly the same in China and Germany?
Swerve gave you the numbers about good land and you again come with pure people per km² numbers?
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On the first point, there's limits to what non-arable land can bring. For example, if one wants to irrigate a desert that water has to come from somewhere, whether groundwater, distilled or some river etc. Deserts do not have such fertile soil etc. There's a reason why non-arable land is non-arable. At this stage of world development further extensive development is very short-sight solution. As for the second, sure, food can be bought from international market now, and with enough money in the future, but rising food prices will most certainly hit the world economies. Additionally, climate change will devastatively hit many food production areas.Arable land means, in current high tech enveronment, much less than 100 years ago. Firstly - with some efforts non-arable land can become arable. Israel and Spain are prime examples here. Second, food can be relative easely purchased on international market. And third, there are VERY large areas in China still almost undeveloped.
In case of Russia, discussed in this thread, the climate change, if it goes like predicted, will naturally warm up many arctic areas but the effects on agricultural production are smaller what they seem, as most productive areas will head for a fall in production and areas newly opened for agriculture will produce a smaller yield due to very shallow soil. (My english is stretched to the limits trying to explain this.)
While situation for, say, next 15-20 years, looks quite normal with just minor colonial wars (Afghanistan etc.), it's what happens after, say, 2020, what scares me the most.
Chinas deserts are not comparable with Spains & Israels relatively small, accessible areas of arid land - of which, in any case, only a very small proportion have been made fertile, due to limited availability of water. Chinas deserts are much larger, much less accessible, & either much farther from water or too high to be agriculturally useful however irrigated. They're also inhospitable areas with limited potential for industrial development (that physical accessibility thing again) & appalling climates.Arable land means, in current high tech enveronment, much less than 100 years ago. Firstly - with some efforts non-arable land can become arable. Israel and Spain are prime examples here. Second, food can be relative easely purchased on international market. And third, there are VERY large areas in China still almost undeveloped.
Food can be bought, yes. But it costs money. The more you have to buy, the higher the unit price goes (look at prices of soybeans now that China has to import a lot), & the more physically vulnerable you are.
The agriculturally undeveloped areas of China are mostly that way because they're not worth attempting to develop. Is anyone really going to try developing most of Tibet, or the Takla Makan? Uzbekistan & parts of Kazakhstan & Turkmenistan offer a horrible lesson in what happens when you try to push the limits too far. You end up with even less than you started with, at immense cost. I'm sure the Chinese have noticed.
Russian military’s roar hollow: analysts
IMO, this is a valid point:
IMO, this is a valid point:
They are in a similar situation as China: trying to "keep the wolves away" while getting their house in order!..the country’s main strategic goal is to build an economic powerhouse based on energy exports.
“Russia, under today’s leadership at any rate, is not seeking a Cold War confrontation, a real arms race,” Lipman said. “The rhetoric may get very unpleasant and tough, even aggressive, but I don’t think this overshadows the main trend that Russia is interested in commercial profit, in economic success.”