Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons (Questions)

Status
Not open for further replies.

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
I know a lot of people, especially outside Pakistan, have lots of curiosities & questions regarding Pakistan's nuclear program. I know a certain someone who can give answers regarding Pakistan's bomb. I'll be meeting him on Wednesday & I thought to get people's questions answered.

So if any questions put them here & I'll take it to him.

Note:

1. Questions should be relevant. I'll only put your questions to him if they make sense.

2. I am student of 'this person' so he has given me good amount of information already. Hence if I have answer to questions posted here I'll directly answer them here myself rather than putting same questions to him again.
 

Khairul Alam

New Member
3 questions in brief (please do enlighten me even if some questions seem outright stupid :p:):
1. An estimate of the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (some online sources put it at ~30 whereas some say >60)
2. Who calls the shot in launching a nuclear weapon? Most likely the head of the government does. I mean are there special codes needed to initiate an attack or is it as simple as calling the relevant guy up and just saying "do it".
3. Did Pakistan yet manage to build their own mini-nukes? India already possesses them, so Pakistan should get them too, just to maintain the balance of power.
 

shashank2008nai

New Member
In Todays Newpaper That Pakistan's Nuclear Scientist Stole The Nuclear Secrets From A Country And After That He Was Made The Chief Of Pakistans Nuclear Program. I Want To Know Is This True. And I Also Want To Know How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Pakistan Posses?
 

Khairul Alam

New Member
In Todays Newpaper That Pakistan's Nuclear Scientist Stole The Nuclear Secrets From A Country And After That He Was Made The Chief Of Pakistans Nuclear Program. I Want To Know Is This True. And I Also Want To Know How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Pakistan Posses?
just to add to shashank,the recent book THE NUCLEAR JIHADIST claims that Mr A Q Khan stole nuclear secrets from a Dutch laboratory and used that to build centrifuges.how much weight does this claim have??
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #5
2. Who calls the shot in launching a nuclear weapon? Most likely the head of the government does. I mean are there special codes needed to initiate an attack or is it as simple as calling the relevant guy up and just saying "do it".
This is the question I was hoping for. I would prefer to answer it my self as I have had long discussion on this with him.

The NCA or the National Command Authority calls all the shots.

The President of Pakistan is the Chairman of NCA while Prime Minister is Vice-Chairman - with Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Vice Chief of Army Staff, (VCOAS), Foreign Minister, Interior Minister, Defence Minister & top level Scientists as other members.

However its a collective organization & no individual has complete hegemony on the NCA. So if Pakistan decides to "Press the button" it would have to be NCA's decision, as in collective decision by its top members. If majority tend to disagree with launching of nuclear weapons than they cannot be launched. If President wants to launch the attack but others tend to disagree than attack cant be carried out. So your assumption that head of the state - like the American President - has authority to launch a missile is wrong.

I would like to add something important here regarding the SECURITY of the Pakistan's nuclear arsenal --- NCA is responsible for both safety & security of the nuclear weapons. Many believe that the weapons can fall into wrong hands. The chances are very grim, almost 0%.

1. The wrong hands (extremists) cannot come to power in Pakistan because

a) Pakistan is not Afghanistan & has well disciplined & well armed army capable of tackling the 'wrong hands.' That is why the 'wrong hands' have been contained to a particular region only (although very threatening events do take place in rest of the country, there is no chance of them spreading beyond their own region).

b) Extremists cant come to power via democracy as the province they usually hail from has minor number of seats in the parliament. So even if they win 100% seats from that particular province they cannot form a govt. Since they cannot form a govt they cannot become President nor PM hence no chance of them becoming Chairman nor Vice-chairman of NCA.

* Even if lets suppose they come to power they cannot launch nuclear attack because they would require collective decision to do so from the members of NCA - who actually go through "Personal Reliability Program" to see if they are mentally or emotionally challenged people. I.e.: If one comes up saying I want to destroy 'xyz' country than he is out, be it your No.1 enemy.

* Lets suppose they hijack a nuclear missile:

a) It would be of no use to them. Pakistani nuclear weapons are not launch at alarm ready like the American missiles - this means warhead is kept aside from the missiles.

b) They wouldn't know how to launch it on their own.

c) Third thing is safety of missile itself; as Dr. Samar Mubarakmand [Ex-Chief of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) & NESCOM] said it 'even if you put the missile on the road & give people hammer to hit it nothing will happen' ... so the extremists/terrorists cant hijack a missile, take it to any country & start banging it so it could explode & destroy that country.

d) How will they hijack the missiles when they don't know their location of deployment? Plus the missiles & warheads are always under heavy security. I doubt anyone is willing to take such as risk to fight the security forces around the weapons.

As my teacher puts it .. the safety & security measures of NCA today are more robust & affective than the Americans'. In fact the Americans, IAEA & other organizations have been brief about NCA's working & they themselves have said it is more efficient, robust, affective & strict than ours.

Hence all this talk about Pakistan's nuclear program falling to wrong hands is just a talk, especially by the American politicians aspiring to run for American Presidency.
 
Last edited:

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #6
In Todays Newpaper That Pakistan's Nuclear Scientist Stole The Nuclear Secrets From A Country And After That He Was Made The Chief Of Pakistans Nuclear Program.
Yes its kind of true but the person who stole the nuclear secrets is no nuclear scientist but a "metallurgist." You know him by the name of A.Q. Khan. He used to work at URENCO in Holland where Europeans were setting up their latest technology based Centrifuges. A.Q. Khan was actually suppose to be a translator of 'restricted' documents into English, French & German language. But soon he accessed classified & top-secret documents & areas of URENCO where he was actually not allowed & the security at the organization didn't pay much attention.

The western countries thought that country like Pakistan cannot make a bomb, even if it does it would be based on plutonium & would require reprocessing plant. In fact that was the 1st preference of Pakistan. URENCO & western countries thinking that of what use would centrifuge be to Pakistan when they don't have uranium based plant? & how will they build the centrifuge? They were bluffing themselves, A.Q.Khan found loopholes in the western export list & started importing the materials one by one. He managed to get a separate installation for his working at Kahutta Research Labs now Khan Research Labs (KRL). He started researching centrifuge & warheads & by late 1980s declared that Pakistan can make bomb in weeks time if ordered. Thats how an engineering student who did Ph.D in metallurgy transformed himself into a nuclear scientist & Pakistan's hero.

The true scientist behind the bomb is actually Ex-Chairman of PAEC Dr. Munir Ahmed Khan (Late) who never got along with A.Q. Khan. While the real father of the Bomb is late Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.

Dr. Munir Ahmed Khan was the head of nuclear program but when A.Q.Khan parted ways Munir Ahmed Khan became chief of nuclear program under PAEC & A.Q.Khan became head of nuclear program under KRL. While the real chief of nuclear program was Z.A. Bhutto. After Z.A.Bhutto's death the two organization led their program independently from each other. So there were two chiefs aiming at same objective.

However, it was PAEC under Dr. Samar Mubarakmand to test the nuclear device in 1998 & not A.Q.Khan & his KRL team. So in the end the real scientists won.

Just a note: There are 12 steps in making a nuclear bomb out of which A.Q. Khan only masters 1 step & thats uranium's enrichment (via centrifuge) to 90-95% (weapons grade uranium). Nevertheless he did an important job.



For a better information read 'Shopping for bombs' by Gordan Correra. Or 'Deception' by Adrian Levy. I would recommend the first one since I have read it. However, let me tell you something these books are actually designed to show A.Q. Khan as a bad guy & the whole Pakistan nuclear program based on "cheating." It ins't so. There is also work carried out by PAEC who were the ones to test the explosive devices. Not much attention is given to them, regardless of them being the real people behind the bomb. It was mostly their own scientific knowledge & capabilities that helped them make the bomb
 
Last edited:

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #7
1. An estimate of the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (some online sources put it at ~30 whereas some say >60)
I doubt that can be answered but I'll try.


3. Did Pakistan yet manage to build their own mini-nukes? India already possesses them, so Pakistan should get them too, just to maintain the balance of power.
I don't think we are pursuing anything like that but than I don't have access to such info.

I think for balance of power all nuclear weapons have to do is create assured/credible deterrence & the big nukes are already doing that. Mini or small you would keep on thinking & keep on have 2nd thoughts about using them against another nuclear country even if that country doesn't posses mini-nukes. You take a small step & the wipe you out. --- But still I'll try to put the question to him.
 

F-15 Eagle

New Member
I have a big concern about Pakistains nuclear arsenal, givin the current politcal crises there, what if the terrorist take control of the government, then they will have anywhere from 50-120 nukes that could be a huge threat, it good spark WW3 in the worst case situation.:shudder
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #9
I have a big concern about Pakistains nuclear arsenal, givin the current politcal crises there, what if the terrorist take control of the government, then they will have anywhere from 50-120 nukes that could be a huge threat, it good spark WW3 in the worst case situation.:shudder
If you care to read my 2nd post in the thread (Post#5) you would get your answer.

People check if the question has been asked before or answered by me anyways before you ask any question. & please put it in a good & proper manner because I actually plan to put my laptop in front of him with your questions showing on the website.
 
According to reports Babur and Ra'ad are nuclear capable. Does Pakistan have nuclear warheads small enought to be fitted on these missiles at present or is the plan to eventually fit nuclear warheads on them?
 

WAR

New Member
I know a lot of people, especially outside Pakistan, have lots of curiosities & questions regarding Pakistan's nuclear program. I know a certain someone who can give answers regarding Pakistan's bomb. I'll be meeting him on Wednesday & I thought to get people's questions answered.

So if any questions put them here & I'll take it to him.

Note:

1. Questions should be relevant. I'll only put your questions to him if they make sense.

2. I am student of 'this person' so he has given me good amount of information already. Hence if I have answer to questions posted here I'll directly answer them here myself rather than putting same questions to him again.
Well, I think, keeping in mind the sensitivities involved in the issue raised/ initiated by SABRE, it seems to me very theatrical in nature.

At times clarifying such sensitive issues to the satisfaction of the "concerned" backfire, no matter how much honesty, truth, patriotism etc is there. Remember, the infamous interview of AQ Khan given to Kuldeep Nayyar ended up in Pressler Ammendmend.

Secondly, by stating "facts" through "most reliable" source(s) would surely raise more questions filled with suspicion. No one would take it on face value. Why? Because clarifying without being asked is like putting oneself in the dock, which means -- becoming defensive for no rhyme and reason.

No offence involved to any learnered member of this august forum. I have just exercised my freedom of expression.
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #12
Well, I think, keeping in mind the sensitivities involved in the issue raised/ initiated by SABRE, it seems to me very theatrical in nature.

At times clarifying such sensitive issues to the satisfaction of the "concerned" backfire, no matter how much honesty, truth, patriotism etc is there. Remember, the infamous interview of AQ Khan given to Kuldeep Nayyar ended up in Pressler Ammendmend.

Secondly, by stating "facts" through "most reliable" source(s) would surely raise more questions filled with suspicion. No one would take it on face value. Why? Because clarifying without being asked is like putting oneself in the dock, which means -- becoming defensive for no rhyme and reason.

No offence involved to any learnered member of this august forum. I have just exercised my freedom of expression.
The information provided is actually public & the person whom I am going to put forward this question to is one of the public faces of NCA - in fact he is an international face of NCA.

The information provided by me & him is actually something Pakistan wants spread all over the world. If anything sensitive than of course it would not make it to internet. Security is too high as I said - not even at a gun point one can get a sensitive & classified information from NCA officials.

The idea is to provide people with correct information & remove false ideas & perceptions.

Anyways; it was not the A.Q. Khan's statement that got Pressler's Amendment implemented. The CIA already had greater knowledge about Pakistan's nuclear program & Pressler had already been passed in Congress even before A.Q. Khan's statement. It was only a matter of time we made a wrong move & the POTUS refused to certify that 'Pakistan is not making a bomb.'
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #14
In case of decapitation of the NCA - what body will then have command authority?
Well I highly doubt NCA is going to be decapitated. Ordinance regarding its permanent presence has already been passed. Its now the Command & Control authority of nuclear program. I doubt even President of Pakistan (in this case Musharaf) can revoke it.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Well I highly doubt NCA is going to be decapitated. Ordinance regarding its permanent presence has already been passed. Its now the Command & Control authority of nuclear program. I doubt even President of Pakistan (in this case Musharaf) can revoke it.
Oh! I think I put the question poorly. An example: During the Cold War in Europe, the politicians could authorize the use of nuclear weapons, however, if the command system was decapitated, the authority would be transferred to appointed generals in the NATO structure.

If the NCA is taken out, f.i. killed in a nuclear strike, who can authorize the use of nuclear weapons?
 

Pro'forma

New Member
There is no question to Pakistan, any need purchase nuclears.
There was long-time ago troubles and isolation moving invariably.
Isthmus without participation over countries. Intrusion indeed are no
needed.
Why is isolation inveigling many countries ? I don't think nuclears
are invention of this century, nor likely intruder is getting any
world prize.
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #17
According to reports Babur and Ra'ad are nuclear capable. Does Pakistan have nuclear warheads small enought to be fitted on these missiles at present or is the plan to eventually fit nuclear warheads on them?
Well these are operational questions as my teacher puts it & I don't think any NCA personal is willing to answer it. They would give you an indirect hint for you to judge the answer your self.

So all I have to say if Pakistan is declaring the cruise missile as capable of carrying nuclear warheads & has designated them as the strategic weapons than what does that imply?

3. Did Pakistan yet manage to build their own mini-nukes? India already possesses them, so Pakistan should get them too, just to maintain the balance of power.
An estimate of the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (some online sources put it at ~30 whereas some say >60)
Again operational questions. So I didn't ask.
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #18
Oh! I think I put the question poorly. An example: During the Cold War in Europe, the politicians could authorize the use of nuclear weapons, however, if the command system was decapitated, the authority would be transferred to appointed generals in the NATO structure.

If the NCA is taken out, f.i. killed in a nuclear strike, who can authorize the use of nuclear weapons?
Oh ... I actually came to understand your question about few hours back (after I had discussions with my teacher & he had left) & before reading your clarification.

I asked similar question but the answer to my question was actually suppose to be different. My question was if we have nuclear ballestic missile submarine & the NCA is destroyed in a nuclear strike than who would make decision? For which he said that NCA might have some presence on board the sub, as well as the top crew of the sub will be the decision makers.

Anyways; I'll put this question to him on Saturday. I told him about the website so may be he finds his way here & answers you even before I do. But I doubt it so hopefully I'll get you the answer.

But to my understanding, especially derived from discussions with him, NCA can survive the 1st wave strike & than carryout its 2nd strike capability. This much we are assured that Pakistan has credible 2nd strike capability (as for assured 2nd strike capability we would require nuclear submarine ... & I don't think he would answer the question 'are we pursuing nuclear submarine?'). Again as for my understanding NCA operates from different locations. If the top commanders are wiped out than the surviving subordinate personal will carry out the decision.
 
Well these are operational questions as my teacher puts it & I don't think any NCA personal is willing to answer it. They would give you an indirect hint for you to judge the answer your self.

So all I have to say if Pakistan is declaring the cruise missile as capable of carrying nuclear warheads & has designated them as the strategic weapons than what does that imply?
Thanks for trying. I had a feeling the offical wouldn't give a clear answer to the question due the nature of it.
 

Khairul Alam

New Member
Another question sabre:
it was once reported in the media that saudi arabia had funded pakistan's nuclear program...some $1 billion.in return pakistan allegedly agreed to station nuclear weapons in SA if the need ever arose.but saudi hopes were said to be dashed after the coup, in which newaz sharif was toppled.how much truth is there to this claim??
(personally i think it is b.s because any such move wud be suicidal for pakistan.but cudnt just ignore the bbc documentary ;) )
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top