Rafale loses out again?

[swerve]

I'd love this to be true, though I fear it's a clever way to let the Americans know that if they don't supply the F22 the Japanese will buy non-American for once (and for the very first time). I still see the F35 as the likeliest choice, though I'd love to see Japanese Typhoons !!

cheers

It's possible Japan may buy the F-35 in the future, but it doesn't look feasible as a candidate to replace Japans F-4s (the current requirement), because it can't be delivered in time. Only platforms currently in production (F-15E, F18E, Typhoon . . . ) are possibilities, unless the JASDF can be persuaded to accept the retirement of a third of its combat arm (forced by the age of the airframes) with no immediate replacement, which doesn't seem likely.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Hey, we sold the EF to Austria... nfloorl:

Yeah only 15 of them - and then they tried to back out!!

The only export orders so far are to Austria (Germany) and Saudi Arabia (UK). Japan would also be UK-led given our close links and the high-level negotiations, as well as the fact the demonstrations took place here.

 

[Waylander]

My post should sound rather ironic.

The deal with Austria is laughable. But more for Austria than for us.

In the end, everytime I feel depressed because of our own defense policy I can look over the border to Austria and feel imediately better.

 

[Scorpion82]

Every Eurofighter partner is responsible for marketing the aircraft in specific regions.

Responsibilities:

Spain:
- South Korea (lost)
- South America

Italy:
- Turkey
- Romania

Germany:
- Austria (secured)
- Norway
- Denmark
- Swiss
- Greece
- Netherlands (lost)

UK:
- Saudi Arabia (secured)
- Bulgaria
- Japan
- Singapore (lost)

India is the only market where Germany and the UK are active.

Did I forget something?

 

[Waylander]

Thanks for that.
Ok, one secured (Even when its Austria) and one lost.

Norway and Denmark are going to be very tough especially due to the Gripen but Swiss and Greece are doable.

But I agree that a sale to Japan would be an extremely important one for the EF.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Every Eurofighter partner is responsible for marketing the aircraft in specific regions.

Where did you get that list from?

I doubt Bulgaria will go for the Typhoon - they can't afford it in decent numbers. Same with South America.

Responsibilities:

Spain:
- South Korea (lost)

Eh, what ties does Spain have to South Korea? I think it would have made more sense to let the UK do Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea and Japan, with Bulgaria going to another partner. That said South Korea was always going to be a "poisoned chalice" as the bidding process there showed.

UK:
- Singapore (lost)

That was rather the fault of the platform rather than the UK. Typhoon wasn't as mature then as it was now, with fewer guarantees about its future.

Interesting that we were given the big potential earners - maybe because they were risky and we could have made the difference?

What would you guys be doing without us?

----

Anyway, let's get back to the Rafale. If someone wants to open a thread for Typhoon discussion let's carry on the export order chat there.

 

[Waylander]

Do you really think the partners divided the potentional customers purely by natural logic? Politics defenitely played a BIG role.

As for lost countries. Nobody accused the UK of being responsible for loosing anything. Scorpion82 just gave me the list I asked for.

And for sure it is quite logical to let BAE do the negtiations with countries they have traditionally ties to.

The same reason why we cover our neighbours or Spain covers south america.

I agree that the EF doesn't fit Bulgarias needs but we sold it to Austria, too...

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Do you really think the partners divided the potentional customers purely by natural logic? Politics defenitely played a BIG role.

I would rather suggest that maximising export orders should be the priority. Or do the countries that secure orders get some sort of a bonus?

Nobody accused the UK of being responsible for loosing anything.

I never said they did - I was making an observation. It was a shame the Typhoon wasn't as mature then as it is now, else we might have got the order.

I agree that the EF doesn't fit Bulgarias needs but we sold it to Austria, too...

True - worth having a go.

By the way, as I suggested can we please shift this discussion to an appropriate thread?

EDIT: Please continue Eurofighter discussion here.

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6930

 

[Waylander]

An international military procurement program as big as the EF involves politics in everything.
Leaving all the big or interesting fishes to BAE wouldn't have been accepted very well by the other partners.

But I agree that we are shifting this topic to OT.
I don't think there is special need for a new thread. In the end not by me.

cheers

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It's confirmed - Morocco is not going for the Rafale.

France to rejig arms sales after Rafale flop

France, conceding defeat in a bid to sell advanced fighter jets to Morocco, has decided on a radical overhaul of the way it handles major arms export negotiations, French officials said on Wednesday. The shake-up comes after talks to sell advanced Rafale fighter jets to the kingdom broke down amid reports of a fumble over the cost of the 2 billion euro ($2.85 billion) deal and its financing. Morocco will buy U.S. F-16s instead, industry sources say.

The shake-up was disclosed by officials accompanying French President Nicolas Sarkozy on a three-day trip to Morocco. The visit yielded rail, frigate and energy deals for France but not the sale of 18 Rafale fighters that Paris had wanted.

Sarkozy has decided that France's export system, especially for military hardware, is faulty and must be changed "from top to bottom and left to right," an official said. In future a "war room" committee comprising senior officials from the presidency office, priome minister's office and other agencies will co-ordinate major arms sales negotiations with a brief to respond quickly to win contracts, the official said. The changes are likely to be announced with the presentation of a new defence white paper in March, the official said.

France is the world's third largest arms exporter with annual sales of around 6 billion euros, according to Britain's International Institute of Strategic Studies. The Rafale was developed and built at a cost of 28 billion euros over the 20-year life of the programme including the cost of supplying 294 jets to the French navy and air force. But it has failed so far to find a foreign buyer for the Dassault-built Rafale after losing out to U.S. rivals in South Korea, Singapore and now Morocco.

France's Defence Minister Herve Morin has criticised the Rafale as over-sophisticated and too costly, but defence industry sources say the Moroccan negotiations went wrong when France's defence export agency DGA miscalculated the price.

The price for 18 Rafales crept up from 1.5 billion euros proposed by DGA to 1.8 billion euros sought by Dassault and finally 2.1 billion including Morocco's final after-sales, parts and support requirements, French defence sources said. The loss of the Rafale contract with Morocco in its own diplomatic backyard is seen as a major embarrassment for France, which had come close to signing a deal for the jets in April.

Diplomats say Morocco's decision to buy cheaper Lockheed F-16s reflects an increasingly pragmatic foreign policy as it weighs U.S. ties against its former colonial master France. Sarkozy appeared to acknowledge this in a speech on Thursday to French business leaders as he urged them to compete harder. "We have no automatic rights here," he said. "We start on an equal footing with others and we will win because we are the best and we deserve to be the best," he said. "We are no asking for special rights. We don't have a market share which is reserved for us."

He said Morocco's King Mohammed had praised the dynamism of Spanish and American companies in private talks between them. The remarks by Sarkozy and his officials come after Morin on Tuesday attacked France's export system as too clumsy. Asked whether it was this which had sunk the Rafale deal, he said: "It was a mixture of everything. It's a big programme."

Morocco had originally expressed interest in the Rafale in 2006 after regional rival Algeria bought around 60 Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets from Russia during a visit by President Vladimir Putin, according to defence industry sources.

 

[harryriedl]

It's confirmed - Morocco is not going for the Rafale.

France to rejig arms sales after Rafale flop

not good not good at all won't look good in India also i thought Sarko would put more effort into selling them as Morocco was thought to be such an important market

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

also i thought Sarko would put more effort into selling them as Morocco was thought to be such an important market

He did try his best - that goes to show how much he was up against it.

 

[radiosilence]

Morocco - F-16C/D Block 50/52 Aircraft

WASHINGTON, December 18, 2007 – The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a possible Foreign Military Sale to Morocco of F-16C/D Block 50/52 aircraft as well as associated equipment and services. The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $2.4 billion.

dsca

Looks like this deal will become offical pretty soon which will keep the F-16 production line open beyond 2010 and quite possibly right up until the F-35 comes on line.

 

[eckherl]

isn`t Rafale quite close at this time of being purchased by Brazil, they have a need for 60 aircraft due to concerns of some of their neighbors recent purchases. Rumors are that this is almost a done deal.

 

[Scorpion82]

isn`t Rafale quite close at this time of being purchased by Brazil, they have a need for 60 aircraft due to concerns of some of their neighbors recent purchases. Rumors are that this is almost a done deal.

Most of the Rafales sales reports are based on misinterpretation or hearsay.

There were never any real plans for purchasing the Rafale in Saudi-Arabia.
Morocco eventually decided to opt for F-16.
Libya is still unsure.
The Rafale will be a contender in Brazil when their new FX program is started in early 2008 for at least 36 new aircraft.

 

[contedicavour]

I'd say that the Libyan deal is 90% done. But that will only be for 14 Rafales.

Next, Brazil is likely to buy 36 as of 2008-09.

Beyond that, Greece and India could buy some but I consider that unlikely given the strength of American and European (Typhoon) competition in Greece and Russian one in India.

In the end the Rafale will get exported, but overall the numbers will be extremely disappointing vs past successes (-2000, F1, and the III&V before that). This will certainly contribute to the decision to join an international programme for the next generation aircraft (unless we all go UAV by then). Dassault's days of glorious go-it-alone programmes are over.

cheers

 

[Scorpion82]

I'd say that the Libyan deal is 90% done. But that will only be for 14 Rafales.

Next, Brazil is likely to buy 36 as of 2008-09.

cheers

Morroco was also considered to be a "done" deal and what happened? As long as there is no signature under a contract nothing is for sure. And Brazil just opens its new FX in early 2008. First deliveries are therefore unlikely to happen much before 2011.

 

[eaf-f16]

not good not good at all won't look good in India also i thought Sarko would put more effort into selling them as Morocco was thought to be such an important market

Yes, becuase, unlike "insignificant" markets like Saudi Arabia and Libya, Morocco is "awash" with money from oil exports, right?

nfloorl:

 

[eaf-f16]

I'd say that the Libyan deal is 90% done. But that will only be for 14 Rafales.

Next, Brazil is likely to buy 36 as of 2008-09.

Beyond that, Greece and India could buy some but I consider that unlikely given the strength of American and European (Typhoon) competition in Greece and Russian one in India.

In the end the Rafale will get exported, but overall the numbers will be extremely disappointing vs past successes (-2000, F1, and the III&V before that). This will certainly contribute to the decision to join an international programme for the next generation aircraft (unless we all go UAV by then). Dassault's days of glorious go-it-alone programmes are over.

cheers

You would have thought after massive the success the Israeli Air Force had with their Mirage III's against the Soviet-built MiG-21 that Dassault would be one of the most successful defense contractors when it comes fighter-jets by now but, that isn't the case.

I wonder why that is?

 

[kato]

I wonder why that is?

Because the US dumped their F-16 on everyone for lower prices of course.

Dassault was rather successful up till the late 90s on the fighter market. The Mirage III and its various variants sold to over 20 customers, the Mirage F1 to another 15 or so.