Questions. What effect would the cancellation have on Austal? How much of their business is weighted on the success of the US Navy LCS program?
I'm not surprised at how this has turned out. Dept of Commerce wrote a briefing paper in 2004 that went to Navy and State which outlined the problems with shipbuilding and budgets for programs. This was given a bit more kick when the team involved with helping out with HMS Astute did a supplementary report on UK problems. So it should have been a pretty clear warning to the Primes that an attitude adjustment was going to be needed.
As for Austal, they've turned around the US enitity they bought by some 300% based on commercial sales and opportunities, so although LCS would have been a carrot, I don't see it impacting on their actual forecasts. Considering that they've taken the US operation out of the Red and substantially into the Black, I guess they'll continue on steady as she goes.
Finally, does anyone know if Kockums has any partnerships with any US shipbuilders that could mass produce the Visby? That last is just wishful thinking, but you never know.
Kockums is an HDW entity now - and AFAIK, HDW is 20% US shareheld.
I suspect that the issue is primarily one of managing the Primes - and that companies like Austal and Incat would be more interested in having a greater say in doing the pitch. There has been some concern from a few people I know in maritime that GD and Lockmart had overgilded the lilly.
I also can't see Visby making the cut anyway. Certainly the initial reports I'm aware of weren't excessive in their enthusiasm.
