'67 war.
Future of Ground Warfare
- Thread starter levathan
- Start date
mm yeah.
Didn't bother actually thinking in that post anyway
Btw, another example might be the Iran-Iraq War. Saddam didn't think in '80 that the newly-formed Islamic Republic had any "bite", and at first this was rather true - Iraqi forces made big landgrabs (in South-West Iran). That is, until Iran managed to get their armies together, established proper defense lines, and pushed Iraq back to and across the original border. And what "won" the war for Iran was quite simply manpower. The Pasdaran weren't high-tech, or experienced. But they provided ample manpower.
Germany, during the Cold War maintained what... 30, 40 divisions including all reserves? About 1.2 million men including reserves, anyway.
And, despite a technology gap between the ~10-15 active and the ~20-25 inactive divisions, both had "up-to-date" equipment of the time. The inactive divisions, in the 80s, had pretty similar equipment to some (NATO) nations' equipment in the late 90s / early 00s - ie. mix of M113 and Marder for IFV/APCs, mix of Leo 1 and M48 for MBTs, Milan ATGM, towed 155mm and 105mm artillery, 110mm MLRS and both towed and vehicle-mounted 120mm mortars for fire support. And of course tons of light motorized infantry in trucks.
Production 2006 (in thousands)
Germany - 5399 cars, 209 heavy lorries, 202 light commercial vehicles, 9 buses.
USA - 4366, 462, 6435**
Japan - 9757, 699, 1017, 11
China - 5233, 703, 1057, 195
France - 2723, 55, 387, 4.1
Russia - 1172, 88, 218, 24
India - 1473, 230, 211, 30
Brasil - 2092, 106, 379, 34
S. Korea - 3489, 240**, 111
EU - 16171, 578, 1791, 41
* SUVs, mostly
** light & heavy combined
Light/heavy split varies by country, from as low as 3.5 tons up to 7. Buses includes minibuses with at least 8 passengers & heavier than the local light commercial vehicle limit. Does not include assembly of CKD or SKD kits.
http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/
Germany - 5399 cars, 209 heavy lorries, 202 light commercial vehicles, 9 buses.
USA - 4366, 462, 6435**
Japan - 9757, 699, 1017, 11
China - 5233, 703, 1057, 195
France - 2723, 55, 387, 4.1
Russia - 1172, 88, 218, 24
India - 1473, 230, 211, 30
Brasil - 2092, 106, 379, 34
S. Korea - 3489, 240**, 111
EU - 16171, 578, 1791, 41
* SUVs, mostly
** light & heavy combined
Light/heavy split varies by country, from as low as 3.5 tons up to 7. Buses includes minibuses with at least 8 passengers & heavier than the local light commercial vehicle limit. Does not include assembly of CKD or SKD kits.
http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/
FutureTank
Banned Member
This is not a very clear indicator of military capability production potential
Military capability is dominated by the commercial vehicle data
sorting the data provided on that site by that criteria you get the following
USA 6,897,766
China 1,955,576
Japan 1,727,718
Canada 1,182,756
Mexico 947,899
The Canadian, Mexican and a significant part of the Japanese production is for the US market. Even without the Japanese, the North American production capacity outnumbers Chinese 4.6:1
And this is after a near 500,000 drop in NAFTA overall automotive production for 2006
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FutureTank
Banned Member
There was also a 9% increase in overall Asian automotive production of 2.33 million vehicles for the same year.
FutureTank
Banned Member
Production potential as indicator of future national defence capabilit
Looking at another set of figures on the OICA site, one can say that so far as effectiveness goes, mobility is the primary winning factor all other things being equal.
Mobility is these days largely defined by having armoured trucks since the design trend has neen in the recent past for wheeled rather then tracked vehicles to provide the bulk of mobility needs for the armies.
The capability to produce heavy trucks is therefore a fairly good indicator for future ground warfare national capacity.
The NAFTA countries produced in 2006 565,805 heavy trucks
European 2006 production, including CIS and Turkey was 689,485 heavy trucks
China produced 617,293 heavy trucks in 2006
Usually automotive plants run at about 80% capacity, but the suggestion is that Chinese production plants run close to 90% capacity.
Japan is a significant producer, but owing to the geographic position and being an island, its ship-building capacity is far more important then the truck building one. In no small part its future warfighting capability would be dependent on Japanese Navy's ability to secure sea lanes to Australia and its raw resources.
About 10% of civilian fleet can be used for military operations comfortably without harming the economy too much. A WW2 vintage motorised infantry division requires in the order of 3,000 trucks requiring 60,000 in sealift tonnage for a reference point.
Therefore from last year's commercial production China had achieved a capability to fully equip 20.5 infantry divisions (assuming towed artillery) with brand new heavy trucks (assuming over 3.5t vehicles) Of course for armoured vehicles a minimum of 10t chassis would be required, but in production terms its just a matter of scale.
As can be seen China has, over the past 10 and the following 2-3 years, wil have achieved the 100 mobile division capability.
Looking at another set of figures on the OICA site, one can say that so far as effectiveness goes, mobility is the primary winning factor all other things being equal.
Mobility is these days largely defined by having armoured trucks since the design trend has neen in the recent past for wheeled rather then tracked vehicles to provide the bulk of mobility needs for the armies.
The capability to produce heavy trucks is therefore a fairly good indicator for future ground warfare national capacity.
The NAFTA countries produced in 2006 565,805 heavy trucks
European 2006 production, including CIS and Turkey was 689,485 heavy trucks
China produced 617,293 heavy trucks in 2006
Usually automotive plants run at about 80% capacity, but the suggestion is that Chinese production plants run close to 90% capacity.
Japan is a significant producer, but owing to the geographic position and being an island, its ship-building capacity is far more important then the truck building one. In no small part its future warfighting capability would be dependent on Japanese Navy's ability to secure sea lanes to Australia and its raw resources.
About 10% of civilian fleet can be used for military operations comfortably without harming the economy too much. A WW2 vintage motorised infantry division requires in the order of 3,000 trucks requiring 60,000 in sealift tonnage for a reference point.
Therefore from last year's commercial production China had achieved a capability to fully equip 20.5 infantry divisions (assuming towed artillery) with brand new heavy trucks (assuming over 3.5t vehicles) Of course for armoured vehicles a minimum of 10t chassis would be required, but in production terms its just a matter of scale.
As can be seen China has, over the past 10 and the following 2-3 years, wil have achieved the 100 mobile division capability.
Straight from German Army Territorialheer, Southern Command/Corps ORBAT
Scaled up to 100 divisions
- 50,000x Trucks (estimate)
- 30,000x Light Vehicles (estimate)
- 16,400x MBTs (Leo1/M48A2G2)
- 10,000x APCs (M113/TPz)
- 1,600x IFVs (Marder)
- 1,500x Command Vehicles (M577)
- 2,600x Rec/Eng/Bridge/Mine Vehicles
- 4,800x ATGM systems (JgPzRak/Milan)
- 5,600x AA guns (20mm)
- 7,200x mortar systems (120mm)
- 3,600x Artillery (105mm towed/155mm SPH)
(above OrBat is infantry-centric of course)
Both NATO and WP were at about 3 times those numbers each in 1989, afaik (at least for MBTs and APCs).
Oh, and remember that a "division" isn't the same everywhere
Scaled up to 100 divisions
- 50,000x Trucks (estimate)
- 30,000x Light Vehicles (estimate)
- 16,400x MBTs (Leo1/M48A2G2)
- 10,000x APCs (M113/TPz)
- 1,600x IFVs (Marder)
- 1,500x Command Vehicles (M577)
- 2,600x Rec/Eng/Bridge/Mine Vehicles
- 4,800x ATGM systems (JgPzRak/Milan)
- 5,600x AA guns (20mm)
- 7,200x mortar systems (120mm)
- 3,600x Artillery (105mm towed/155mm SPH)
(above OrBat is infantry-centric of course)
Both NATO and WP were at about 3 times those numbers each in 1989, afaik (at least for MBTs and APCs).
Oh, and remember that a "division" isn't the same everywhere
Unfortunately, your adjustments don't make the picture clearer, because the statistics use national, not standard definitions.
Most of that US "commercial" vehicle production is SUVs, some of which in other countries may be defined as cars. And there is a huge overlap between light commercial vehicles & cars, many being built on the same platforms, & using the same engines. For example, the Daihatsu Extol, which is by no means the bottom of the range, has the same engine as a Toyota Yaris (i.e. a small high-volume car), & weighs under a ton.
Concentrating on heavy commercial production might give a better picture, except that in some countries, a large proportion of "heavy" vehicles would qualify as light elsewhere. The cut-off varies from 3.5 to 7 tons.
In order to get a clear picture, we'd need a breakdown according to standardised definitions.
European Union standardised definition:
< 3.5 tons = car (B license)
3.5 - 7.5 tons = light truck (C1 license)
>7.5 tons = truck (C license)
FutureTank
Banned Member
Not sure there would be many countries that could spare 164 MBTs for every one of their 100 infantry divisionsStraight from German Army Territorialheer, Southern Command/Corps ORBAT
Scaled up to 100 divisions
- 50,000x Trucks (estimate)
- 30,000x Light Vehicles (estimate)
- 16,400x MBTs (Leo1/M48A2G2)
- 10,000x APCs (M113/TPz)
- 1,600x IFVs (Marder)
- 1,500x Command Vehicles (M577)
- 2,600x Rec/Eng/Bridge/Mine Vehicles
- 4,800x ATGM systems (JgPzRak/Milan)
- 5,600x AA guns (20mm)
- 7,200x mortar systems (120mm)
- 3,600x Artillery (105mm towed/155mm SPH)
(above OrBat is infantry-centric of course)
Both NATO and WP were at about 3 times those numbers each in 1989, afaik (at least for MBTs and APCs).
Oh, and remember that a "division" isn't the same everywhere
Which country has capacity to build 100 infantry divisions? Not a lot
Well, the divisions i'm basing this on is infantry-centric, but not pure infantry.Not sure there would be many countries that could spare 164 MBTs for every one of their 100 infantry divisions
Which country has capacity to build 100 infantry divisions? Not a lot
And they are Cold War NATO Territorial Army divisions, meaning each between 15,000 and 20,000 men, split each into two full brigades (of five battalions), three separate regiments (of three battalions), four or five separate battalions (engineers and such), and about 30 independant companies for localized security. Tanks are mostly in three tank battalions, rest is used for infantry fire support under the doctrine back then.
Go figure
FutureTank
Banned Member
Well, even the SVUs are ok for military purposes. Most field 'cars' are SUVs under the paneling. Remember the African Toyota armies? Still see the odd DShK mounted in the back of a pick-up truck.
The requirements of the military vary also from SUV-type vehicles to heavy trucks, with the former being in greater demand
FutureTank
Banned Member
Any country that can put together 100 infantry divisions will not have the specialists Most would have the smaller Soviet-era TO&E of 9 battalions, with specialist battalions either small or even reduced to companies. ATGW units replaced largely by AT gun or even RCL equipment. No more then a battalion of tanks, but probably a company for 3/4 of them. No APCs/IFVs for 3/4 of them either (trucks only).Well, the divisions i'm basing this on is infantry-centric, but not pure infantry.
And they are Cold War NATO Territorial Army divisions, meaning each between 15,000 and 20,000 men, split each into two full brigades (of five battalions), three separate regiments (of three battalions), four or five separate battalions (engineers and such), and about 30 independant companies for localized security. Tanks are mostly in three tank battalions, rest is used for infantry fire support under the doctrine back then.
Go figure
FutureTank
Banned Member
How far into the future are we talking about here?
Yep. German designs realistically were similar - just bigger. Technically, the "divisions" (each of the 5 WBK Territorial Commands was assigned a wartime division designation) were "corps" in reality.
Looking it up from the OrBat i have... each WBK had:
WBK 1 - about 33 battalions
WBK 2 - about 29 battalions
WBK 3 - about 36 battalions
WBK 4 - about 46 battalions
WBK 5 - about 31 battalions
WBK 2+3 formed a Corps, with an additional 4 battalions attached.
WBK 4+5 formed a Corps, with an additional 8 battalions attached.
So, in total, we'd have had around 185 battalions in Territorial Army reserves.
Within those 185 battalions, i would rate about 65% "combat-capable". I.e. having at least one ATGM and several MG, grenade launchers and RCLs at platoon level. The rest was more intended for local security - securing depots, bridges and other strategic targets in their AoR - or for rear echelon functions, i.e. Engineers, NBC Defence, MP and such.
These about 120 "combat-capable" battalions split like this:
- about 15 btl armor (2 btl with Leo 1, 13 with M48A2)
- about 15 btl artillery (1 btl SPH, 1 btl LARS, 2 btl FH70, rest 105mm)
- about 15 btl heavy MofInf (2 btl in Marder, 13 with M113)
- about 30 btl motorized infantry (with decent equipment, in mil trucks)
- about 45 btl motorized infantry (with reduced equipment, in civ trucks)
Additionally, there were 2 reserve helo squadrons with about 20 helos each, and a AA gun regiment with something like 70 guns (towed 40mm Bofors).
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FutureTank
Banned Member
At the 35-battalion average the German 'division' would be double the Soviet 18 battalion size.
But why are you taking Germany as an example?
Because that structure was in place, and i have the OrBat for it
FutureTank
Banned Member
Where are you getting this OrBat from if I may ask?Because that structure was in place, and i have the OrBat for it
The West German Army 'division' size was determined by one factor. The post war peace treaty which limited them to "12 divisions". Of course by 1989 they could have raised almost 30 full divisions but for legal reasons could not call them that.
FutureTank
Banned Member
Ah, yes, forgot that.
Still, I wasn't thinking in terms of Germany raising 100 divisions in future. At least I can't imagine the scenario.