Serbian Kotor-Class, Sava-Class, Heroj-Class, Mala-Class...

[Totoro]

There are some wild figures being used here. If one simply goes to www.morh.hr and reads the official reports and white papers, we will see that the situation is a little different.

Croatia's defence budget for 2007 is 825 million dollars. It is projected that in 2015 it will rise to 1680 million. (2% of GDP and 4% yearly increase of GDP) Right now the budget for new equipment and modernization is miniscule, some 50 million dollars a year. They project in 2010 it will be at 26% of defense budget, and in 2015 it should reach 30%. We don't know how much of that will go to Navy, with all the other programs preceeding the modernization of the navy being planned - like new fighters and IFVs)
Of course, there is such a thing as inflation. But they calculated that too into the projections. In 2015, they expect the budget to be at 1200 million dollars of 2004 money value.

In 2006. Navy's budget for new equipment was under 4.8 million dollars. In 2007. the plan is to spend more - up to 12 million dollars. To put that into perspecitve, entire Navy's budget for 2007. is planned to be 75 million dollars. So, new equipment share is something like 16%.

If we increase Navy's budget from 9% of entire defense budget in 2007. to 30% in 2015, correct the amount for inflation and add up the increased percentage of new equipment budget, we're looking at 108 million dollars for equipment in 2015. and some 400-500 million dollars overall from 2008-2015. period. We should keep in mind there are other boats and equipment to be bought as well, so not all of that could go towards the purchase. Also, more likely than not it would not be cash up front buy but a multiyear payment with interest.

Oh, and i dont know where those personnel figures were from, the white paper says goal for active navy personnel is 1650 people.

 

[Ragusian]

Forget military budget... Every capital investment will be financed from the main budget, not from the (small)military part. That includes ships, planes and everything worth mentioning...

 

[mic of orion]

There are some wild figures being used here. If one simply goes to www.morh.hr and reads the official reports and white papers, we will see that the situation is a little different.

Croatia's defence budget for 2007 is 825 million dollars. It is projected that in 2015 it will rise to 1680 million. (2% of GDP and 4% yearly increase of GDP) Right now the budget for new equipment and modernization is miniscule, some 50 million dollars a year. They project in 2010 it will be at 26% of defense budget, and in 2015 it should reach 30%. We don't know how much of that will go to Navy, with all the other programs preceeding the modernization of the navy being planned - like new fighters and IFVs)
Of course, there is such a thing as inflation. But they calculated that too into the projections. In 2015, they expect the budget to be at 1200 million dollars of 2004 money value.

In 2006. Navy's budget for new equipment was under 4.8 million dollars. In 2007. the plan is to spend more - up to 12 million dollars. To put that into perspecitve, entire Navy's budget for 2007. is planned to be 75 million dollars. So, new equipment share is something like 16%.

If we increase Navy's budget from 9% of entire defense budget in 2007. to 30% in 2015, correct the amount for inflation and add up the increased percentage of new equipment budget, we're looking at 108 million dollars for equipment in 2015. and some 400-500 million dollars overall from 2008-2015. period. We should keep in mind there are other boats and equipment to be bought as well, so not all of that could go towards the purchase. Also, more likely than not it would not be cash up front buy but a multiyear payment with interest.

Oh, and i dont know where those personnel figures were from, the white paper says goal for active navy personnel is 1650 people.

That Defense white paper was published in 2006, and was based on 2005 statistics and exchange rates. Things have changed in meanwhile, but I do agree caution is required. Croatian GDP at present exchange rate (5.5HRK = 1USD) should hit 107 billion USD by 2015. Naval personal will also increase with the demands of the NATO and peacekeeping, although much of the patrolling will be done by civilian Coast Guard, to cut the costs.

Overall I think Navy will remain at 2500 personal, Air force at 3200 and Army at 10500 personal all active, with 10 000 reserves, 4000 in HQ/Logistics and other + 2200 civilians, in all about 32500 personal if you include reserves, or 22 000 excluding reserves, or about 20 000 in uniform (excluding civilians).

 

[contedicavour]

Thanks to all for this accurate data on defence budgets.
If new procurement is indeed funded outside of the defence budget, then there will be heavy infighting between the armed forces to be considered a priority among all the general budget's capital expenses...

cheers

 

[mic of orion]

Thanks to all for this accurate data on defence budgets.
If new procurement is indeed funded outside of the defence budget, then there will be heavy infighting between the armed forces to be considered a priority among all the general budget's capital expenses...

cheers

Well, they set the budget expenditure for next 7 years, it is 15 billion Kuna (about 2.1 billion euro) but this is not final figure, some extra funds will come from Main defense budget so total spendings might top 3 billion euro over next 7-8 years. 2007-2015.

 

[contedicavour]

Well, they set the budget expenditure for next 7 years, it is 15 billion Kuna (about 2.1 billion euro) but this is not final figure, some extra funds will come from Main defense budget so total spendings might top 3 billion euro over next 7-8 years. 2007-2015.

If the money is for procurement only that's not bad... at 40 mln each a squadron of 16 Gripen would still leave enough money (1.5+ bn) for the army and navy.

cheers

 

[Totoro]

Mic, could you please give us some links to the news where those figures were thrown around? Especially something that'd show big military purchases would be paid for directly from the govt budget? Thanks.

 

[Ragusian]

Mic, could you please give us some links to the news where those figures were thrown around? Especially something that'd show big military purchases would be paid for directly from the govt budget? Thanks.

It's all in the 2007-2015 paper that MOD released. It specifically says that all capital investments will be financed from the govt budget, not from the military budget.
I think you can download the paper from the official MOD site.

BTW, Montenegro's RF-34(one of the Kotors) and a CroNavy's BS-73 Andrija Mohorovicic are off to Greece for a joint Greece-Albania-Italy-Croatia-Montenegro naval exercise Adrion livex 07.

 

[Totoro]

Okay, i saw that part now. But, what it actually says is this:

In the event of an unfavourable scenario in the achievement of the defence budget, the achievement of necessary CAF capabilities will depend on the possibility of financing equipment and modernisation from outside the defence budget. Some possibilites for such a type of financing are:
- procurement of capital equipment (combat aircraft, coast guard ships, wheeled combat armoured vehicles) through direct financing from the state budget;
- mutual investment in a portion of capital equipment within the framework of international military cooperation,
- procuring new or used equipment under favourable conditions from partner countries.

It sounds as being very far from a done deal. If history can teach us anything, then it becomes more likely that the third option is usually very desirable for the politicians bent on spending less on the military. Also, we must not forget that all these plans were made during current HDZ administration. Who knows who will win this fall's elections and if the future administration's plans will support the large buys. Buying outside the military budget, during a peacetime, is not really a popular thing.

Also, we have to be realistic. 12 gripen class planes, new IFVs, new navy corvettes... all that for a country whose GDP is like 2.5-3 times smaller than hungary's or czech's gdp. They barely scraped up enough money for their dozen of gripens each, and don't have to spend money on a navy.

Plans are all nice and dandy but i am willing to bet a large sum of money that, come 2015, significantly less than 3 billion dollars will be spent on new equipment. It is just a political/economic reality.

 

[mic of orion]

Okay, i saw that part now. But, what it actually says is this:

In the event of an unfavourable scenario in the achievement of the defence budget, the achievement of necessary CAF capabilities will depend on the possibility of financing equipment and modernisation from outside the defence budget. Some possibilites for such a type of financing are:
- procurement of capital equipment (combat aircraft, coast guard ships, wheeled combat armoured vehicles) through direct financing from the state budget;
- mutual investment in a portion of capital equipment within the framework of international military cooperation,
- procuring new or used equipment under favourable conditions from partner countries.

It sounds as being very far from a done deal. If history can teach us anything, then it becomes more likely that the third option is usually very desirable for the politicians bent on spending less on the military. Also, we must not forget that all these plans were made during current HDZ administration. Who knows who will win this fall's elections and if the future administration's plans will support the large buys. Buying outside the military budget, during a peacetime, is not really a popular thing.

Also, we have to be realistic. 12 gripen class planes, new IFVs, new navy corvettes... all that for a country whose GDP is like 2.5-3 times smaller than hungary's or czech's gdp. They barely scraped up enough money for their dozen of gripens each, and don't have to spend money on a navy.

Plans are all nice and dandy but i am willing to bet a large sum of money that, come 2015, significantly less than 3 billion dollars will be spent on new equipment. It is just a political/economic reality.

True, HDZ mentioned 15 billion, parliament agreed as well, defense modernization act was passed in 2006, not sure which month, might be April or May. (Sorry did not read your entire post, will respond when I have more time), Overall, HDZ government agreed with assessments to modernize military and bring it up to date. Main programs are, New Armored Vehicles (126 Batch one and 126 Batch two vehicles, 8x8 Either Patria or Pandur2) total cost of the program 370-380 million Euro.

Army:

Program for 6x6 Armoued vehicles - 42-84 vehicle requirement - either Pandur 2 or some one else - program cost - 80-125 million euro.

Program of 4x4 light armored vehicles - 70+10 (already agreed with Iveco, deliveries of 70 more IVECO FCLV) - 30 million euro.

http://www.army-technology.com/projects/future/images/FCLV_1.jpg

Upgrade of 75 M84 A1 tanks to M84D standard, program cost - 150 million Euro.

Program of modernization and procurements of Artillery systems (sometimes after 2012) Archer - Bofros system most likley candidate' to supply 18 Artillery Systems under 100 million Euro program - systems will replace 12 Gvozdika SPH's in Cro Service).

Other programs are,

1x NBC battalion, - (Fully equipped) - program cost 30 million Euro
2x Night vision battalions (fully equipped) - program cost - 50-80 million Euro
1x Filed Hospital - (fully equipped) - 25 million Euro
1x Engineer battalion - (fully equipped) - 50 million Euro
1x Artillery Regiment - (fully equipped) - 200 million Euro
1x Logistics Regimnet - (fully equipped) - 120 million Euro

New Assault rifle + scopes - 50 000 rifles 5.56mm - 80 million Euro.
New Infantry communication sets - 15000 sets - 20 million Euro
New Communication equipment for army - 30 million euro

Navy:

Corvette program - 4 Corvettes, - 400 million euro
Landing ships program - 2-3 ships - 50 million euro
New Minesweeper program - 5-6 ships - 100-125 million euro
ASW/SAR/MR helicopter program - 8-12 helicopters - 200-250 million euro
Support ship program - 4-5 support ships - 150-200 million euro

Air Force

14x 4.5 Generation Fighter program (JAS39 E/F or F16 C/D Block 52) - 800 million euro
2-3 Medium Transports program - (C-27J or CN-295) 100-150 million euro
Medium, Helicopter Program - 10 Mil 17 - delivery in 2008/9 - 65 million euro
AD Program - (16x Rolland or similar short range SAM) - 80 million euro

and so on, I am sure I missed few, but in all program will be in region of 3.0-3.25 billion Euro, this is 2008-2015 timescale or about 22-25 billion Kuna, financed from Central Government Budget (60%) and MOD budget - 40%.

Defense budget will gradually increase to 2% of GDP to cover the modernization and procurements.

 

[mic of orion]

Okay, i saw that part now. But, what it actually says is this:

In the event of an unfavourable scenario in the achievement of the defence budget, the achievement of necessary CAF capabilities will depend on the possibility of financing equipment and modernisation from outside the defence budget. Some possibilites for such a type of financing are:
- procurement of capital equipment (combat aircraft, coast guard ships, wheeled combat armoured vehicles) through direct financing from the state budget;
- mutual investment in a portion of capital equipment within the framework of international military cooperation,
- procuring new or used equipment under favourable conditions from partner countries.

It sounds as being very far from a done deal. If history can teach us anything, then it becomes more likely that the third option is usually very desirable for the politicians bent on spending less on the military. Also, we must not forget that all these plans were made during current HDZ administration. Who knows who will win this fall's elections and if the future administration's plans will support the large buys. Buying outside the military budget, during a peacetime, is not really a popular thing.

Also, we have to be realistic. 12 gripen class planes, new IFVs, new navy corvettes... all that for a country whose GDP is like 2.5-3 times smaller than hungary's or czech's gdp. They barely scraped up enough money for their dozen of gripens each, and don't have to spend money on a navy.

Plans are all nice and dandy but i am willing to bet a large sum of money that, come 2015, significantly less than 3 billion dollars will be spent on new equipment. It is just a political/economic reality.

BTW I agree with much of you said here, but there is a sense of urgency when it comes to air force, timescale is max 5 years.

Aircraft can be procured with 5 years grace period before Croatia needs to pay for the fighters, which would work fine for Croatia, same can be done with most programs, and thus spread the costs. BTW Fighter procurements in Czech Republic and Hungary were from main budget.

Right now Croatian GDP is 47 billion USD, in 2015 it will hit 580-587 billion Kuna (107 billion USD) giving more funds for various defense programs, by than defense budget will hit 2.1 billion USD and perhaps than most modernization programs could be financed directly from defense budget alone.

 

[Totoro]

There is a huge difference between a list of things that should be done and list of things that most likely will get done. I have a feeling a good part from that equipment modernization list will simply not get done by 2015. Nowhere near enough money for that. Yes, 2006 gdp is 47 billion. But current growth is 4.5-5%. Even at 6% (sustained thru 2015) it would amount to 79 billion. To reach the figure you mentioned by 2015, gdp would have to grow by 9%, year after year. Such a jump and such a sustained growth is, in my opinion, highly improbable. Also, we have to keep in mind real increased purchasing power will be somewhat lower, due to inflation.

In the white papers we're both reading it says 12 new combat planes will be procured, not 14. (The paper clearly says 8+4, same as current mig21s) Then again, 4 intermediate trainers are allegedly also needed, so in the end the price might be similar to 14 gripens or so. Your assesment of 800 million euros sounds about right, in 2011 prices.

Some of the other stuff on your list don't really add up or i just don't understand what you're trying to say. All in all there will be 126 new IFVs. 80 something in 8x8 variant, rest in 6x6. I tried adding up all the stuff you listed, using conservative prices, and not adding up the 370-380 mil euros you mentioned for IFVs, and yet the total figure went up to 3.75 billion dollars, 25% more than you projected could be mustered by 2015. And, like i said, it is highly doubtful even 3 billion is realistic.

Some of things from your list i can't even in any official long term plans. Sure, there is always a need for new stuff, but could you point out where is the procurement of: Roland SAM, navy helos, new landing ships, new support ships and brand new SP artillery regiment listed, with the pricetages you mentioned? Also, 50.000 brand new rifles may be someone's wet dream, it may get mentioned within defense ministry as a 'need', but in the end, if half of that number gets procured - it will be good. When the army downsizes, even with giving the reserves the new rifle - you'd still have leftover. Not gonna happen.

 

[mic of orion]

There is a huge difference between a list of things that should be done and list of things that most likely will get done. I have a feeling a good part from that equipment modernization list will simply not get done by 2015. Nowhere near enough money for that. Yes, 2006 gdp is 47 billion. But current growth is 4.5-5%. Even at 6% (sustained thru 2015) it would amount to 79 billion. To reach the figure you mentioned by 2015, gdp would have to grow by 9%, year after year. Such a jump and such a sustained growth is, in my opinion, highly improbable. Also, we have to keep in mind real increased purchasing power will be somewhat lower, due to inflation.

In the white papers we're both reading it says 12 new combat planes will be procured, not 14. (The paper clearly says 8+4, same as current mig21s) Then again, 4 intermediate trainers are allegedly also needed, so in the end the price might be similar to 14 gripens or so. Your assesment of 800 million euros sounds about right, in 2011 prices.

Some of the other stuff on your list don't really add up or i just don't understand what you're trying to say. All in all there will be 126 new IFVs. 80 something in 8x8 variant, rest in 6x6. I tried adding up all the stuff you listed, using conservative prices, and not adding up the 370-380 mil euros you mentioned for IFVs, and yet the total figure went up to 3.75 billion dollars, 25% more than you projected could be mustered by 2015. And, like i said, it is highly doubtful even 3 billion is realistic.

Some of things from your list i can't even in any official long term plans. Sure, there is always a need for new stuff, but could you point out where is the procurement of: Roland SAM, navy helos, new landing ships, new support ships and brand new SP artillery regiment listed, with the pricetages you mentioned? Also, 50.000 brand new rifles may be someone's wet dream, it may get mentioned within defense ministry as a 'need', but in the end, if half of that number gets procured - it will be good. When the army downsizes, even with giving the reserves the new rifle - you'd still have leftover. Not gonna happen.

I used Euros, not USD.

All these programs are in defense white paper, and I had a chat with the Croatian MOD, to be exact with the Deputy defense minister, and he was very adamant what needs to be done, but he was also realistic, he pointed out, few things are required and these are priorities, but most of the programs I pointed out in my post will come to fruition, and Croatian growth rates are about 8%, real growth rates are about 4.5-4.7%, real growth rates are when you discount inflationary growth, GDP will hit 580-587 billion Kuna trust me, I was actually very conservative in my estimates, most likley growth will be in region of 620-624 billion kuna, but I like to use figures that I can count on.


1USD = 5.45 Kuna at present rate of exchange, by 2010, it might fall down to 5.25 (real exchange is about 5.25) but current policy of NBC (Croatian national bank) is to keep exchange rate at 5.5 Kuna to 1 USD (well 7.35 Kuna to one Euro).

Croatia grew at 8-10% (including inflationary growth) for past 10 years, more, in 1995 Croatian GDP was 103.8 billion Kuna, in 2005 Croatian GDP was 231.8 billion Kuna, this means Croatia grew 2.3 times in past 10 years, using same methodology you come to 530 billion, by adding Grey economy (15%) you come to about 610-620 billion Kuna GDP in 2015.

this gives you about 12.1 billion kuna to play with in 2015, at present rate that's nearly 2.2 billion USD. Current expenditure is 800-870 million USD, using inflation in 2015 you'd still have about 700 million USD to spend on defense procurement, that said.

As to APC's yes, contract is for 126 APC's 4th gen, but that would be just initial order, lot more APC's will be procured, after all there are 3 4 full brigades to equip with new APC's, 126 would hardly do the job if you get me, but initially yes, 126 is all Croatia will order, but I bet you as soon 126 vehicles are delivered it will be followed by follow on order for another 126 vehicles, original order was for 250-300 APC's, and 10 years down the road I am pretty certain Croatia will field at least 180 Patria's or Pandur 2 APC's.

Croats like to think before they buy stuff, look at example of Zagreb Trams, they ordered only 70 trams, but only when initial batch of 70 trams where delivered they decided to order 70 more, and I am pretty cretin once these are delivered, 50-70 more will be ordered, after all Zagreb plans to replace its entire fleet of old trams with new Low Floor trams.

Same is with the Army, they are pushing to replace old equipment' with the new. It might take a bit of time.

 

[Ragusian]

Same is with the Army, they are pushing to replace old equipment' with the new. It might take a bit of time.

The biggest problem is that all of army's branches are pushing at the same time. A result of 15 years of pure negligence of our army and bad management.
And what do we have now?
An outdated airforce, a puny navy which cannot do basic stuff like open sea patrolling... It would be funny if it wasn't sad.

And it will get only worse if we delay the modernisation, bacause the technical gap will widden, the prices will only be higher and our men will be unsufficiently trained in modern equipment.

That, my fellow countrymen, is the result of our goverments(all of them) work.

Mic, can you tell me anything about logistic ships program? Specs?
No submarines on the horizon?

 

[mic of orion]

The biggest problem is that all of army's branches are pushing at the same time. A result of 15 years of pure negligence of our army and bad management.
And what do we have now?
An outdated airforce, a puny navy which cannot do basic stuff like open sea patrolling... It would be funny if it wasn't sad.

And it will get only worse if we delay the modernisation, bacause the technical gap will widden, the prices will only be higher and our men will be unsufficiently trained in modern equipment.

That, my fellow countrymen, is the result of our goverments(all of them) work.

Mic, can you tell me anything about logistic ships program? Specs?
No submarines on the horizon?

Sorry, no idea, I was told they'll be few but how large and what, he didn't want to say, I have relative high up in MOD, won't say to much but he gave me a contact with the official in question, I wanted to find more about plans for future, my uncle is also high up in (well he was when SDP where in charge) Governmental circles, so I get loads of info from my relatives there. But nothing to sensitive, lol, after all some stuff are state secrets and aren't allowed to be given to ppl like me, or anyone for that matter, lol.

I was told Cro Navy will no longer use Submarines, I was given good reasons, also what would one do with the submarine in 50m deep watter, lol + costs (one A19/U214 is valued at 120-140 million euro). As to corvettes they said that Croatia might opt out for small 700-1000t corvettes 3-4 of them, but I didn't take this to seriously, not sure why, I still think Gowind's are cool ships, or US littoral ships, I think Croatia can build great stuff, it is just that ppl there lack proper vision. I think many are set in old ways...

 

[contedicavour]

Jane's carries some news (ahm unfortunately for subscribed members ) on Montenegro's navy having finalized disposal of Osa and Mirnas and being close to disposing the 2 older Konis FFGs.
Does somebody have the details ?

thks
cheers

 

[Ragusian]

Jane's carries some news (ahm unfortunately for subscribed members ) on Montenegro's navy having finalized disposal of Osa and Mirnas and being close to disposing the 2 older Konis FFGs.
Does somebody have the details ?

thks
cheers

Two Mirnas today have left for Croatia, having been bought by a new , private, owner. And they are going to be used as tourist ships, their engines replaced and their hulls reconstructed(so if you are in the vicinity of Zadar , you may see them packed with tourists).
My sources on the Konis are thin, but for sure, one Kotor is in good shape.
Here are the pictures of the MNeN RF-34 and CroNavy's BS-73 on the island of Krf, during Adrion Livex '07(not my pic, obviously), and two pictures of Mirna's headed for Croatia

 

[contedicavour]

Two Mirnas today have left for Croatia, having been bought by a new , private, owner. And they are going to be used as tourist ships, their engines replaced and their hulls reconstructed(so if you are in the vicinity of Zadar , you may see them packed with tourists).
My sources on the Konis are thin, but for sure, one Kotor is in good shape.
Here are the pictures of the MNeN RF-34 and CroNavy's BS-73 on the island of Krf, during Adrion Livex '07(not my pic, obviously), and two pictures of Mirna's headed for Croatia

Private ownership of the Mirnas... now that's surprising... I though these ships were the ideal small patrollers to be kept by a navy the size of Montenegro's, or bought by the Croatian Navy to provide spare parts for the ones in service.
So with all Osa and Mirnas gone, Montenegro will have a navy made of 2 Kotor light FFGs ? Strange...

cheers

 

[Ragusian]

Private ownership of the Mirnas... now that's surprising... I though these ships were the ideal small patrollers to be kept by a navy the size of Montenegro's, or bought by the Croatian Navy to provide spare parts for the ones in service.
So with all Osa and Mirnas gone, Montenegro will have a navy made of 2 Kotor light FFGs ? Strange...

cheers

Strange as it may seem, but they are actually thinking of bringing these two Kotor FFGs to full NATO standards. There was a visit made by Greek navy personel in order to exmine these two vessels. According to some sources, they say that two Kotors are in a pretty good condition(I quote "only 30% of their tech resources spent"). According to the same sources, both Kotors may well end up being modernised to full NATO standards in Greek shipyards, and used as OPVs.
As for Mirnas... Well... There are far cheaper ways of patroling in-shore watters. They are to expensive to do that, and to small to be used for patroling the open watters of the Taranto gates. It seems pretty logical to me for MNs navy to dispose of them.

And as far as CroNavy is concerned, Mirna's are to be replaced with a new (cheaper to operate, and more roomier)design.

 

[contedicavour]

Strange as it may seem, but they are actually thinking of bringing these two Kotor FFGs to full NATO standards. There was a visit made by Greek navy personel in order to exmine these two vessels. According to some sources, they say that two Kotors are in a pretty good condition(I quote "only 30% of their tech resources spent"). According to the same sources, both Kotors may well end up being modernised to full NATO standards in Greek shipyards, and used as OPVs.
As for Mirnas... Well... They are far cheaper ways of patroling in-shore watters. They are to expensive to do that, and to small to be used for patroling the open watters of the Taranto gates. It seems pretty logical to me for MNs navy to dispose of them.

And as far as CroNavy is concerned, Mirna's are to be replaced with a new (cheaper to operate, and more roomier)design.

Thks a lot for the info.
I wonder why Montenegro has turned to the Greeks for advice and not to closer neighbors such as Croatia and Italy, but what matters is that they'll bring their contribution to NATO patrols despite their small size.

cheers