Invade Zimbabwe call

[Oryx]

With plans to nationalise industry and mining, RM is desperate to cling on to power, his days are numbered. SA and the UN are already planning for a massive influx of refugees once the final collapse occurs.

I don't see how South Africa can either plan for or cope with much of an increase. At the moment Zimbabweans are streaming into the country at around 2000+ a day with the total now standing around 2 to 3 million (it is difficult for authorities to nail down an exact number since most enter the country illegally). This means around 5% of the SA population now consist of Zimbabwean immigrants. For the same reason, I think calling for an invasion is not a good idea - imagine what would happen with the number of refugees once they also try to avoid getting caught up in a war.

To be honest, I think it is time someone takes RM out, but one can only hope...

 

[Sgt.Banes]

If the British were to invade Zimbabwe they wouldn't have too much of a problem clearing out their land forces. I would recommend a small Coalition of probably the United States, Britain, and perhaps the African Union, and a military task force of at the least 40,000 men strong. Hopefully the coalition could work out a deal with Mozambique to where operations for the initial invasion can launch from.

The Zimbabwe military as a whole is only made up of 53,800 troops, and their ground vehicles (Tanks, APCs, ect....) are mostly old Soviet and Red Chinese versions of Soviet weaponry. So an air campaign would make short work of those. A invasion of Zimbabwe would be successful as a whole but the question is, would the occupation if one were implemented work?

 

[Izzy1]

...would the occupation if one were implemented work?

(As against the idea of British troops getting involved in Zimbabwe as I am...)

Only if it heavily involved the African Union. Arguments of colonialism would be aplenty if British and US troops were there long-term.

Also, given the current shambles in Iraq, a few individuals may feel inspired enough to make our time there quite unpleasent.

 

[riksavage]

Why would China even contemplate supporting RM militarily, they have nothing to gain strategically, coupled with the fact that they have ZERO successful experience in power projection. They learnt a very harsh lesson as a result of their disastrous incursion into Vietnam in 79, hence they believe in soft NOT hard power.

Chine is simply not ready or capable to start getting involved in overseas adventures, if they were we would already see the red flag flying over Taipei! They have a long way to go before they are logistically ready for expeditionary warfare outside the Asia-Pac region.

Its all about risk vs. reward.

 

[Izzy1]

Could not agree more; Beijing has little interest in or to gain from saving RM. I doubt even former African allies like those in the DRC would come running to Mugabe's aid.

The UN and AU must play a more active role. As I have said before here, I also have no problem with the UK/EU/US doing everything in their power (less direct military intervention) to aid the opposition and destabilise the Mugabe regime.

But the final arbiter of this man's fate must be the people of Zimbabwe in my honest opinion.

 

[Manfred2]

But the final arbiter of this man's fate must be the people of Zimbabwe in my honest opinion.

THey already are. If African's do not have the self-confidence to demand any other type of leadership but vicious war-lords, then they deserve what they get.

Forget American involvement. Every time we try to make the world a better place, anti-American propaganda kicks into high gear, and enough people swallow it to make the whole thing a waste of time.

Let Africa take care of it's own problems. Better yet, lets see the EU step up and do something serious.

 

[Izzy1]

Let Africa take care of it's own problems.

Isn't that what I said??

Better yet, lets see the EU step up and do something serious.

With all due respect, the EU can only just run itself - never mind anyone else.

 

[Sgt.Banes]

(As against the idea of British troops getting involved in Zimbabwe as I am...)

Only if it heavily involved the African Union. Arguments of colonialism would be aplenty if British and US troops were there long-term.

Also, given the current shambles in Iraq, a few individuals may feel inspired enough to make our time there quite unpleasent.

I forgot to factor in their Special Forces, though they may seem to be simply thugs with some basic military training. If they were to melt back into the general population they would more than likely give a Coalition one hell of a time.

The one thing about an AU Army would be that they're poorly trained and quite frankly too [ Admin Text deleted. Can we remember that there is no need to include scatalogical invectives to get opinions across to others. Please read the forum rules and remember it in future] to be effective as a frontal spear into a formidable enemy with Soviet Weaponry in the hands of Left Wing Radicals.

 

[riksavage]

‘Special Needs Forces’ more like!

Any attempt by RM ‘s SF / bully-boys to melt back into the population once the current regime collapses will not be taken well by the general population, there will be a lot of scores to be settled and I have a vision of lampposts hosting a dangling former RM henchman. The AU will be needed to stop widespread massacres, revenge attacks and lawlessness.

 

[Oryx]

The one thing about an AU Army would be that they're poorly trained and quite frankly too chicken shit to be effective as a frontal spear into a formidable enemy with Soviet Weaponry in the hands of Left Wing Radicals.

1) Not all armys of AU member states are poorly trained, some are excellent, professional soldiers and some of the countries are very well equipped. South Africa, Algeria and Egypt are just three examples of countries with highly capable armed forces against whom Zim would stand very little chance militarily.

2) I find your "chicken sh*t" statement completely uncalled for. I have many friends in the SANDF and there is not one of them I would call cowardly in any sense of the word. People I know who have worked with some of the other AU armed forces have said many things about them, but never that there is a lack of braveness. I see you are from the US - how would you take it if I called any member or branch of the US armed forces "chicken sh*t"? Just because people from outside Africa see the whole continent as backward these statements are acceptable?

Finally, the fact that the AU has not acted against Zimbabwe up to now has had very little to do with whether it could be done from a military point of view. It has to do with whether it should be done from a humanitarian point of view. As I said earlier, we (South Africa) can hardly cope with the 2000+ refugees streaming illegally over the border each day at the moment, I don't see how a war (because of one crazy messed up old man who hangs onto power) can possibly improve that situation. How long will it take before the aftermath of an invasion turns the place into a civil war between Matabeles and Shonas, or Zanu-PF supporters vs MDC? There is a time and place when war becomes the best option; I don't see this as one of those - at least not yet. We have seen so many wars over the centuries on this continent - if there is any way to avoid another one then everything possible should be done to do so.

 

[Izzy1]

I forgot to factor in their Special Forces, though they may seem to be simply thugs with some basic military training. If they were to melt back into the general population they would more than likely give a Coalition one hell of a time..

Zimbabwe's SAS and Commando Battalions once had a very good reputation, yet like the rest of the regular Army now, they are a pale shadow of their former self.

I can't remember if it is this thread or the other here on DT that discusses Zim; but the army is virtually paralysed due to underfunding, chronic desertion and a tragically high rate of AIDS/HIV infection throughout the ranks (Jane's World Armies quotes a figure of nearly 55%).

RM's 'trump card' is his Special Security Battalion - made up entirely of North Korean Army secondees that ZANU-PF pay the DPRK for in hard cash. How this unit would react in the event of conflict however is hard to judge.

The one thing about an AU Army would be that they're poorly trained and quite frankly too chicken s**t to be effective as a frontal spear into a formidable enemy with Soviet Weaponry in the hands of Left Wing Radicals.

I have to agree, that's a little harsh and generalistic. Countries like South Africa, Ghana, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya and Tanzania - as well as plenty of other African nations, have fine military traditions and organisations.

 

[gf0012-aust]

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[Manfred2]

Fine Military traditions don't seem to count for much these days. Since Insurgency seems the way to go, why not foment and suply an anti-Mugabe uprising among the people there? If the people there deserve to live in freedom, let them do something to prove it.

Speaking of Tanzania; All I know of their post-WW1 actions is that they were the ones to push Idi-Amin out of power. (hmmm, I smell a hint of irony in the air) What else have they done since the days of Letow-Vorbeck's Askaris?

 

[Waylander]

The problem with dictators is that they tend to come after such uprisings very quick and very violent.
As long as he has a working core of loyal military formations as well as police and intelligence services I don't see an uprising resulting in anything else than a big slaughter of civilians.

 

[Izzy1]

As long as he has a working core of loyal military formations as well as police and intelligence services

Very true. In the case of Zimbabwe, it seems also the vast majority of the modern middle class that grew wealthy under Mugabe are remaining loyal. Whilst they can continue to afford black-market prices, I doubt that loyalty is going to erode anytime soon.

 

[Andrew_W]

Admin. Spend some time reading the forum rules and then come back after your ban has expired.

 

[Sgt.Banes]

1) Not all armys of AU member states are poorly trained, some are excellent, professional soldiers and some of the countries are very well equipped. South Africa, Algeria and Egypt are just three examples of countries with highly capable armed forces against whom Zim would stand very little chance militarily.

2) I find your "chicken sh*t" statement completely uncalled for. I have many friends in the SANDF and there is not one of them I would call cowardly in any sense of the word. People I know who have worked with some of the other AU armed forces have said many things about them, but never that there is a lack of braveness. I see you are from the US - how would you take it if I called any member or branch of the US armed forces "chicken sh*t"? Just because people from outside Africa see the whole continent as backward these statements are acceptable?

Finally, the fact that the AU has not acted against Zimbabwe up to now has had very little to do with whether it could be done from a military point of view. It has to do with whether it should be done from a humanitarian point of view. As I said earlier, we (South Africa) can hardly cope with the 2000+ refugees streaming illegally over the border each day at the moment, I don't see how a war (because of one crazy messed up old man who hangs onto power) can possibly improve that situation. How long will it take before the aftermath of an invasion turns the place into a civil war between Matabeles and Shonas, or Zanu-PF supporters vs MDC? There is a time and place when war becomes the best option; I don't see this as one of those - at least not yet. We have seen so many wars over the centuries on this continent - if there is any way to avoid another one then everything possible should be done to do so.

Well I'm sorry to hurt your feelings, the only AU nations that are combat effective in large Coalition format would be Eygpt, South Africa, and Lybia. The rest of the continent is so poorly trained and are crippled by disease and famine they wouldn't be effective in military situation. So I see my "chicken shit" statement fairly appropriate in this case. But as I said I'm sorry my state offended you.

 

[Sgt.Banes]

Fine Military traditions don't seem to count for much these days. Since Insurgency seems the way to go, why not foment and suply an anti-Mugabe uprising among the people there? If the people there deserve to live in freedom, let them do something to prove it.

Speaking of Tanzania; All I know of their post-WW1 actions is that they were the ones to push Idi-Amin out of power. (hmmm, I smell a hint of irony in the air) What else have they done since the days of Letow-Vorbeck's Askaris?

Well, if a removal of Mugabe were to come through an internal uprising then there would have to probably be a degree of Special Forces involvement to have Mugabe's Government and Military jumping in a disorganize manner. At least then an uprising wouldn't result in a suicidal bloodbath on the oppositions side at least.

 

[Sgt.Banes]

Zimbabwe's SAS and Commando Battalions once had a very good reputation, yet like the rest of the regular Army now, they are a pale shadow of their former self.

I can't remember if it is this thread or the other here on DT that discusses Zim; but the army is virtually paralysed due to underfunding, chronic desertion and a tragically high rate of AIDS/HIV infection throughout the ranks (Jane's World Armies quotes a figure of nearly 55%).

RM's 'trump card' is his Special Security Battalion - made up entirely of North Korean Army secondees that ZANU-PF pay the DPRK for in hard cash. How this unit would react in the event of conflict however is hard to judge.




I have to agree, that's a little harsh and generalistic. Countries like South Africa, Ghana, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya and Tanzania - as well as plenty of other African nations, have fine military traditions and organisations.

Again, I'm just being brutally honest, though perhaps a bit too general. But you honestly have to see that most African nations have below standard militarizes. But I do agree that the Arab nations in the North, and Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa are quite formidable and can protect themselves or engage another nation in combat.

 

[Sgt.Banes]

‘Special Needs Forces’ more like!

Any attempt by RM ‘s SF / bully-boys to melt back into the population once the current regime collapses will not be taken well by the general population, there will be a lot of scores to be settled and I have a vision of lampposts hosting a dangling former RM henchman. The AU will be needed to stop widespread massacres, revenge attacks and lawlessness.

I wouldn't take them likely though to our standards they may be lacking skill compared to western nations. But when you look at the situation in Iraq at least in the beginning, you see these "bully boys" being able to blend into the population because the population was fearful of them. You tend to be fearful of those who oppress you over a period of a lifetime, so while I do see civilians not welcoming these thugs as they try to pull an Iraq, that still doesn't mean you should take them likely.