I know that, thats why included it in my good German weapons list
New major military powers
- Thread starter mexsoldier
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I agree with everything except the GDP Forcast. Explain. The GDP of the U.S. today is only 13 trillion. explain about this 40Tr. I understand it will be 2050 but still.
I really think China will use their evergrowing wealth to challenge and overtake the U.S. in defense. There defence budget will be HUGE in 50 years. The Chinese are also smart people.
turkey
nobody is talking about pakistan & turkey.
i think that in the next decade pakistan along with turkey & iran would emerge as major mililitary powers.
also never forget australia !! it may be quiet , but australia is becoming powerful by the day
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.Yes EU is certainly very strong , but its still not 1 nation , I rather compare 1 nation to another as 1 groupbut comparing EU , they are probably the best quality army in the world
nobody is talking about pakistan & turkey.
i think that in the next decade pakistan along with turkey & iran would emerge as major mililitary powers.
also never forget australia !! it may be quiet , but australia is becoming powerful by the day
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That assumes a 2.65% annual growth rate.
I agree that Australia will soon become a major military power. It has a strong economy and good relations with the U.S. for arms purchases. There new purchases are great. (Abrams, Aegis Frigates, JSF) Turkey is also a rising power. Their economy is growing rapidly and Turkey is surrounded by countries that aren't considered friendly by the U.S. (Iran, Syria) Plus they have the Kurd problem. As for Pakistan, there is too much INTERNAL conflict. This prevents them from growing. There have been MANY military coups in that country. For Iran, they have many problems. For example the government recently imposed gasoline rations on their own people. A person would ask, Why would an oil rich country need to ration oil??? The problem is that Iran can't REFINE enough oil for themselves. They therefore have to import it. Thats pretty humiliating considering how much oil they have. Their military still operates VERY OLD weapons. (Chieftans, F-5, F-4) That has to change if Iran wants to become a military power. Overall, Turkey and Australia have the potencial and are probobly going to become major military powers.
Iran has a cocked-up economic policy which distorts the market for petrol. It's heavily subsidised, so the retail price is ridiculously low. As a result, a great deal is smuggled out of the country for sale in neighbouring countries. It's rumoured that some actually goes round twice, to collect two sets of subsidy. As a result, 1) nobody knows what the real consumption of petrol is in Iran & 2) nobody in Iran gives a damn about how much they use, because it's so cheap.
Remove the subsidy, & I reckon Iranian refineries would comfortably meet domestic demand.
But they didn't remove the subsidy and serious internal problems that cause civil unrest like this one will keep Iran from being a military power.
Back to the topic...
Incognito129
Banned Member
China is rapidly advancing in technology. When China reaches convergence it will have 400% the spending power of America. They are already set to exceed US total GDP in 2-3 years. Whether they will increase their budget to equivalent levels of the US is unknown.
I seriously doubt Russia will become a major military power. They simply do not have the population or money to do so and they never will. One of the reasons the Soviet Union was powerful was their huge numbers.
Basically military power is whatever your country's economy is capable of holding. In which case it'd be
1. China
2. India
3. US
4. Russia
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Do we have to go over the difference between nominal and PPP GDP once more? D)
PPP is a poor economic indicator developed for accounting for (progress in) living standards in third world countries. It's not real money. It is accounting for the percieved value of goods etc. in a specific country
Also, consider the built-in inhibitors in the Chinese (and world) economy. It is waaay to optimistic to expect Chinese GDP per capita to match that of the US.
If China matches US nominal GDP in some decades, it will be a very respectable performance.
Welcome the forum btw.
D)PPP is a poor economic indicator developed for accounting for (progress in) living standards in third world countries. It's not real money. It is accounting for the percieved value of goods etc. in a specific country
Also, consider the built-in inhibitors in the Chinese (and world) economy. It is waaay to optimistic to expect Chinese GDP per capita to match that of the US.
If China matches US nominal GDP in some decades, it will be a very respectable performance.
Welcome the forum btw.
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But PPP & nominal GDP tend to converge as per capita PPP GDPs converge. There's a strong positive correlation between income level & price level. Chinas nominal GDP will grow faster than PPP GDP (where, BTW, the current World Bank estimate for China is rather dodgy, being based on projecting forward a 1987 study - but a new study, with official Chinese co-operation, is underway). Expect Chinese nominal GDP (total, not per capita) to match that of the USA much sooner than it would if you took current nominal GDPs & projected them forwards.Oh please! Do we have to go over the difference between nominal and PPP GDP once more?
PPP is a poor economic indicator developed for accounting for (progress in) living standards in third world countries. It's not real money. It is accounting for the percieved value of goods etc. in a specific country
Also, consider the built-in inhibitors in the Chinese (and world) economy. It is waaay to optimistic to expect Chinese GDP per capita to match that of the US.
If China matches US nominal GDP in some decades, it will be a very respectable performance.
Welcome the forum btw.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Totally agree on PPP/nominal convergence, as you describe it. I would perhaps have been more clear if I had pointed out that growth rates doesn't apply to PPP GDP, which was implied in the post I responded to.
I also expect Chinese nominal GDP to be higher than official figures simply for the reason of the undervalued Renminbi. That adjustment alone would adjust Chinese nominal GDP significantly upwards.
I wouldn't expect the current growth rates in the future. The low-hanging fruits have been picked. Not only if you consider demographics and geography, but also that the best of the workforce already has been mobilised. Further, outside demand of Chinese goods won't sustain such growth rates. Growth rates wise, diminishing returns will begin to take its toll on the double-digits.
It is comparatively easy to have high rates of growth, when GDP per capita is low.
I would expect an end-state per capita GDP below that of Taiwan (15,500USD). That translates into a max GDP of c. 19.5 trillion USD for 1.3 billion people. If it had reached its fully developed end-state today.
If all goes well...
(But as it hasn't and the US econ will grow in the meantime...)
Lastly, as far as war potential is concerned, high GDP per capita makes for high tech military machines & vice versa. More money is also tied up in subsistence in low GDP per capita economies.
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Economy doesn't play a major role in military strenght , for example if the US wanted to attack China , economy would be 1 of the last on the list , unless a war is going on for a seriusly long amount of time there is no major economy involved ..
Incognito129
Banned Member
Thanks for the welcome. PPP is the best method of comparison of economies. This of course only works for 2 developed countries. For developing countries neither PPP or nominal or real will be accurate.Do we have to go over the difference between nominal and PPP GDP once more?
PPP is a poor economic indicator developed for accounting for (progress in) living standards in third world countries. It's not real money. It is accounting for the percieved value of goods etc. in a specific country
Also, consider the built-in inhibitors in the Chinese (and world) economy. It is waaay to optimistic to expect Chinese GDP per capita to match that of the US.
If China matches US nominal GDP in some decades, it will be a very respectable performance.
Welcome the forum btw.
Nominal GDP does not mean anything in the economic world. I'm not sure about this argument you state PPP vs nominal? I studied economics in University, and there was no such argument. PPP is always better than nominal. PPP vs Real could be an argument, although weak, but PPP vs nominal is not.
What matters is not per capita GDP because China has 1.3 billion people, it will take forever to reach conditional convergence. What matters is total GDP. Bigger GDP means more money, more for government spending etc.
Incognito129
Banned Member
Economy is everything. No economy, no military.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
I don't think adjusting for inflation really touches substance. Particularly as you used a PPP dependant - 400% increase in spending power. As you assume convergence, it will equal real and nominal (same baseline year in the future).
Depending on what you wish to compare in those economies: Livings standards, PPP is good; RD&T, nominal (or real) is good. See the attachment I posted earlier.
Spending power... You assume that when convergence is reached China will have 400% the spending power of the US. I explained in my prev post why I think China will not exceed 150% of US GDP (nominal or real).
I emphasised why nominal (or real) is a better indicator of war potential, as you cannot tax a low GDP per capita as hard as a high - it is tied up in subsistence. High RER is only good if you wish to fight with obsolete kit and peasant armies, to be a bit extreme.
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Im not talking about economy for funding a army and for developing a army , US military is far superior to China , and in case of war they dont need alot of economy because its not gonna last more than a few weeks..
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Enough Rah Rah!?
As Vladmir Putin once said "If there is no possibility or, to put it more simply, if there is no money... What can you do? You can't go to the store, you can't buy anything, neither a gun, nor a missile, nor medicine."
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