Roleplay: Baltic defences build-up - Part 1

[Rythm]

Scenario: After years of foreign oppression, the Baltic island of Gotland has peacefully declared its independence from the Swedish Crown. The EU isnt pleased, but has choosen not to take action. Sweden on the other hand isnt pleased either, and has made numerous intrusions into Gotlandish airspace and into their territorial waters. A Swedish embargo is in place. Also, Russia has signaled that its first and foremost interest is to secure the area around wich the new gas-pipeline is to be constructed in the baltic sea. This area is, according to the newly elected Gotlandish President, part of the Gotlandish EEZ. The other nordic countries (especially Finland and Denmark) have taken a position of total neutrality in the matter. The Order of the Teutonic Knights (!) have presented a claim on Gotland ranging back to the islands Liberation by them in the 13th century, some German politicians have voiced that Germany should back up these claims.

Area Gotland is an island with a population of about 50000 souls, of wich 15000 are fit for military duty. It is approx. 3000 squarekilometers large and its coasline is 800km. A simple map can be viewed here.

Gotland armed forces Consist of a part-time local defence batalion of about 700 soldiers and a rapid reaction company of about 170 soldiers. The Police also have defence duties and numbers 75 officers. The local denfence batalion has one amphibious company with some older LCPs. The batalion has been motorized since the independence thru the impoundning of a large number of civilian SUVs. The heaviest weapons available is the famous Carl Gustaf grenade laucher, small arms are G3s and FN MAGs with some MP-5s and assorted pistols and hunting rifles. The "Air Force" consist of 8 SAAB 340 and 3 SAAB 2000 Civilian passenger aircraft and 2 civilian Bell Jet Ranger helicopters, all impounded at the airport at independence. The "Navy" consist of 4 civilian RIB, also impounded at independence.

Mission YOU are the new Minister of Defence. Your most important mission is to defend Gotlands national borders, but also to be able to defend Gotland itself for a period of at least 2 weeks. Seeing that Gotland is vastly outnumbered, the government has given you a whooping 20% of the BNP for the first three years, this amounts to 240 million € per year or a total of 720 million €. Obviously, no Swedish items can be purchased. Only smaller items (such as small arms and civilian vehicles) can be purchased from EU-countries. The Government does not want you to get any russian-made items.

What do you do?

 

[kato]

a) Buy a decent SAM and Coastal SSM network (source: China or Israel) with plenty of spare missiles.
b) Get some experts and build enough air raid shelters to house the entire population. Also put the defense network systems underground of course.
c) Distribute plenty of sea mines all around your island except for a few easily-closable corridors (source: China).
d) Buy approximately 10 million land mines and mine your entire coastline for a 100-meter wide strip (source: China).
e) Form a mutual-defense treaty with Poland.

Alternative:
a) military coup
b) mutual-defense treaty with Russia, treaty similar to Iceland in NATO during the Cold War. problem solved.


BTW: NATO once did a very similar maneuver, using Bornholm as the "separatists", and NATO supporting Denmark in recovering it.

 

[SuperSixOne]

not much you can do or afford with 50,000 tax payers

 

[Rythm]

that is exactly the point of this mental exercise, its easy to arm a nation when you have plenty of money, but what to do when there isnt much money?

Interesting points there Kato. I was thinking underground as well. What about OPVs or FACs? Something small with just some anti-surface missiles and machineguns for instance, perhaps with a small helo-pad?

 

[falcon2k7]

Given that senerio, the best solution would be to send envoys to various countries to seek diplomatic support. Especially from other EU and NATO countries.

As far as weapons purchases:

The first time would be Rk.95 rifles from Finland. There is always the traditional Finnish/Swedish card to play plus the fact that the Rk.95 is the finest varient of the AK design in the world.

The biggest question there would be whether or not to choose the 7.62mm Soviet or 5.56mm NATO chambering. I would recommend NATO 5.56mm because of supply problems with 7.62mmx39mm Soviet in the past year. (Although this no longer seems like a problem).

Will add more later, I've got to run.

 

[kato]

What about OPVs or FACs? Something small with just some anti-surface missiles and machineguns for instance, perhaps with a small helo-pad?

Not really needed, as long as your priority is to defend against amphibious Swedish and/or German assaults. Coastal artillery and a static defense concept, including mines, is more what you should look for then. Maybe look into Swiss Reduit concepts for a defense base, though it would have to be adapted from valleys and mountains with tank approach paths and so on rather to maritime "terrain features" like coastline and coastal shelf, shallows and depths, currents and beaching conditions.

 

[SuperSixOne]

d) Buy approximately 10 million land mines and mine your entire coastline for a 100-meter wide strip (source: China).

That's 200 land mines per person... How much do those things cost again? Maybe $250-$500 USD if you buy in bulk. Figure $350. That's an insane debt for a country smaller than most towns. 3.5billion?

 

[kato]

That's 200 land mines per person... How much do those things cost again? Maybe $250-$500 USD if you buy in bulk. Figure $350. That's an insane debt for a country smaller than most towns. 3.5billion?

Holy shit no. Cheap anti-personnel mines go for less than 1$ apiece in bulk quantities (stuff like mines or ammunition is bought by the ISO container, not by packages of 1000 or so), 5-10 bucks if they're pricy, fancy models like directional mines (Claymore) or bouncing mines (PROM-1).

For 250 bucks you'll get sophisticated anti-tank mines, for 500 you'll get a remote side-firing anti-tank rocket system.

10 Million land mines isn't really that much. There's about that planted just as as a static denial system between Ethiopia and Eritrea; most developed nations stocked between 2 and 10 million mines before the ban just for "quick-use readiness". Investment would be 100 million US$ tops, including delivery systems.

 

[SuperSixOne]

Holy shit no. Cheap anti-personnel mines go for less than 1$ apiece in bulk quantities (stuff like mines or ammunition is bought by the ISO container, not by packages of 1000 or so), 5-10 bucks if they're pricy, fancy models like directional mines (Claymore) or bouncing mines (PROM-1).

For 250 bucks you'll get sophisticated anti-tank mines, for 500 you'll get a remote side-firing anti-tank rocket system.

10 Million land mines isn't really that much. There's about that planted just as as a static denial system between Ethiopia and Eritrea; most developed nations stocked between 2 and 10 million mines before the ban just for "quick-use readiness". Investment would be 100 million US$ tops, including delivery systems.

Uh... Sorry but I'm not believeing that one. .50BMG ammo goes for $5 a shot. The Mk. 82 iron free fall dumb bomb which is essentially explosives wrapped in a case with a explosive primer cost $268.50. A mine that must detect and sink a ship would probably be packing more heat than a 500 pound GPB.

 

[kato]

Uh... Sorry but I'm not believeing that one. .50BMG ammo goes for $5 a shot. The Mk. 82 iron free fall dumb bomb which is essentially explosives wrapped in a case with a explosive primer cost $268.50. A mine that must detect and sink a ship would probably be packing more heat than a 500 pound GPB.

We're talking about the land mines. A anti-personnel land mine consists of like two to four ounces of of wood, plastic or metal in raw materials, a small striker or other fuze, and about a quarter to half an ounce of high explosive at most. Far less raw materials and building cost than, say, a hand grenade - or a .50 BMG round.

I didn't cover sea mines in the above post. Those are a separate thing, and required in far less quantity anyway.

 

[Rythm]

wrong type of mines there, super61. Kato is talking about landmines for a cordon sanitaire, not the seamines of wich he recomends "plenty" but not 10 million.

 

[rattmuff]

Just a thought

Scenario: After years of foreign oppression, the Baltic island of Gotland has peacefully declared its independence from the Swedish Crown. The EU isnt pleased, but has choosen not to take action. Sweden on the other hand isnt pleased either, and has made numerous intrusions into Gotlandish airspace and into their territorial waters. A Swedish embargo is in place. Also, Russia has signaled that its first and foremost interest is to secure the area around wich the new gas-pipeline is to be constructed in the baltic sea. This area is, according to the newly elected Gotlandish President, part of the Gotlandish EEZ. The other nordic countries (especially Finland and Denmark) have taken a position of total neutrality in the matter. The Order of the Teutonic Knights (!) have presented a claim on Gotland ranging back to the islands Liberation by them in the 13th century, some German politicians have voiced that Germany should back up these claims.

Area Gotland is an island with a population of about 50000 souls, of wich 15000 are fit for military duty. It is approx. 3000 squarekilometers large and its coasline is 800km. A simple map can be viewed here.

Gotland armed forces Consist of a part-time local defence batalion of about 700 soldiers and a rapid reaction company of about 170 soldiers. The Police also have defence duties and numbers 75 officers. The local denfence batalion has one amphibious company with some older LCPs. The batalion has been motorized since the independence thru the impoundning of a large number of civilian SUVs. The heaviest weapons available is the famous Carl Gustaf grenade laucher, small arms are G3s and FN MAGs with some MP-5s and assorted pistols and hunting rifles. The "Air Force" consist of 8 SAAB 340 and 3 SAAB 2000 Civilian passenger aircraft and 2 civilian Bell Jet Ranger helicopters, all impounded at the airport at independence. The "Navy" consist of 4 civilian RIB, also impounded at independence.

Mission YOU are the new Minister of Defence. Your most important mission is to defend Gotlands national borders, but also to be able to defend Gotland itself for a period of at least 2 weeks. Seeing that Gotland is vastly outnumbered, the government has given you a whooping 20% of the BNP for the first three years, this amounts to 240 million € per year or a total of 720 million €. Obviously, no Swedish items can be purchased. Only smaller items (such as small arms and civilian vehicles) can be purchased from EU-countries. The Government does not want you to get any russian-made items.

What do you do?

Sounds very similar to a readiness exercise the Swedish Armed Forces had in October last year. I've found that Sweden reacted very fast and sent in units from every single regiment. The military force had everything.

A division of fighters. A few corvettes. Some paras. A mixed battalion on the ground shipped and flown in. Units to board and search suspicious ships.

But the exercise scenario was a bit simplified.
The fictive countries of Mida and Kasuria breached Swedens territorial integrity, the threat level raised and a quick response was needed.
CAS, boardings, taking territory with paras, shot down enemy planes with SAMs, sinking enemy patrol boats and show local strength was some things of what happened in the exercise.

 

[kato]

Maybe we should first analyze what we face.

Our potential enemies are:

Sweden (priority 1)
Primarily a military threat, and the most acute. Pretty much the only thing that we as defence ministry will need to deal with right now, the others are better handled diplomatically for now.

Russia (priority 2)
Primarily an economic-political situation - however, could turn into quick threats if not handled properly, with potential volatile reactions somewhere down the line.

Germany (priority 2)
Realistically, not that much of a problem. Would mostly become a problem in concert with Russia because of the pipeline.


Some amateurish threat analysis:

Aerial threat - Sweden, our primary opponent, has a decent modern airforce with substantial numbers and a networking capability in the air. Considering Gotland has one small airport, and two auxiliary launch/landing strips, countering this in the air is next to hopeless. An offensive posture, even if backed by a hypothetical domestic airforce operating out of Gotland's airspace, would easily be met by an integrated network with fighters and surface-to-air missiles as effectors capable of tracking and intercepting any air movement originating from Gotland within seconds. In a defensive posture, using primarily a domestic air defense network, the enemy capability for anti-radar attacks, lo-lo penetration strikes, and, in particular from the west and north-west, very fast attack solutions would have to be considered in setting up such a network.

Land threat - As an island, Gotland only faces land attacks via two delivery means: naval/amphibious and aerial/airborne. Considering the capabilities of our opponents in this field, any such attack would be infantry-only, backed up by light weapons carriers at most. Even in the event that enemy beachheads are established, our opponents at present do not have the immediate means to deliver heavier supporting hardware to these beachheads (Germany and Russia would have such means given proper mobilization, using reserve or converted vessels, with increased personnel and maintenance supporting the necessary units!). A land-based attack would therefore presumably concentrate on domestic defense and command facilities themselves, with very short timings.

Naval threat - All of our opponents have a credible capability to operate within any of our control zones, even when contested. Further, all opponents maintain fleets specifically built to enforce control within the Baltic Sea, and maintain training for such operations. An active maritime denial setup would need a large ASW and ASuW capability outside potential scope. Other denial methods (mining, missile-based coastal defense, coastal artillery) will need to take into account the large MCM capabilities of our opponents, as well as anti-missile defense capacities of enemy vessels.

Am i somewhat correct so far?

 

[Rythm]

Maybe we should first analyze what we face.

Our potential enemies are:

Sweden (priority 1)
Primarily a military threat, and the most acute. Pretty much the only thing that we as defence ministry will need to deal with right now, the others are better handled diplomatically for now.

Russia (priority 2)
Primarily an economic-political situation - however, could turn into quick threats if not handled properly, with potential volatile reactions somewhere down the line.

Germany (priority 2)
Realistically, not that much of a problem. Would mostly become a problem in concert with Russia because of the pipeline.


Some amateurish threat analysis:

Aerial threat - Sweden, our primary opponent, has a decent modern airforce with substantial numbers and a networking capability in the air. Considering Gotland has one small airport, and two auxiliary launch/landing strips, countering this in the air is next to hopeless. An offensive posture, even if backed by a hypothetical domestic airforce operating out of Gotland's airspace, would easily be met by an integrated network with fighters and surface-to-air missiles as effectors capable of tracking and intercepting any air movement originating from Gotland within seconds. In a defensive posture, using primarily a domestic air defense network, the enemy capability for anti-radar attacks, lo-lo penetration strikes, and, in particular from the west and north-west, very fast attack solutions would have to be considered in setting up such a network.

Land threat - As an island, Gotland only faces land attacks via two delivery means: naval/amphibious and aerial/airborne. Considering the capabilities of our opponents in this field, any such attack would be infantry-only, backed up by light weapons carriers at most. Even in the event that enemy beachheads are established, our opponents at present do not have the immediate means to deliver heavier supporting hardware to these beachheads (Germany and Russia would have such means given proper mobilization, using reserve or converted vessels, with increased personnel and maintenance supporting the necessary units!). A land-based attack would therefore presumably concentrate on domestic defense and command facilities themselves, with very short timings.

Naval threat - All of our opponents have a credible capability to operate within any of our control zones, even when contested. Further, all opponents maintain fleets specifically built to enforce control within the Baltic Sea, and maintain training for such operations. An active maritime denial setup would need a large ASW and ASuW capability outside potential scope. Other denial methods (mining, missile-based coastal defense, coastal artillery) will need to take into account the large MCM capabilities of our opponents, as well as anti-missile defense capacities of enemy vessels.

Am i somewhat correct so far?

I am inclined to down-play the swedish military threat. One must not forget the pacifist nature of the population and since sweden is a democracy, any military assault would most likely mean loss of power come election-day. And this is not what (most) politicians want.
But for arguments sake ,this is a military forum after all, i agree.

 

[SuperSixOne]

wrong type of mines there, super61. Kato is talking about landmines for a cordon sanitaire, not the seamines of wich he recomends "plenty" but not 10 million.

Oh,

Sorry, that was some miscommunication. The trouble with landmines is that they can easily be ranover and cleared by EOD vehicals (flail tanks). A normandy style beach assault with armor as the spearhead would easily get under your SAM cover and through your landmines. I'd suggest some mobile Exocet missle launchers. Then, assuming everything did it's job, you SHOULD be able to put up quite a fight. This anti-ship missle ability is also vital in protecting the supply to your island, keeping the sea lanes free of swedish naval vessels (With the exception of submarines, speaking of which ASW is very expensive, and you might not be able to afford it)

 

[Manfred2]

Landmines by themselves are worthless, but if you can over-watch them with snipers and artillery observers, you have a very efficient defence.

For Naval mines, I would look into the Captor Mine concept; an inert Torpedo launcher with passive sensors. Just the threat os such a weapon could by an Island a good bit of time.

However... I need some more information here. What are the political aims of Gotland? What is the ultimate goal of the Government? Who do they see as allies?

If the EU is not freindly, they can make themselves rich by becoming a large "Duty Free" zone... if they have a good harbor.

What kind of deal with Poland, and by extension, the US, is allowed here?

And... if there is really a group known as the Teutonic Knights in this day and age, what use can we make of these later-day Don Quixotes?

 

[kato]

A normandy style beach assault with armor as the spearhead would easily get under your SAM cover and through your landmines. I'd suggest some mobile Exocet missle launchers. Then, assuming everything did it's job, you SHOULD be able to put up quite a fight. This anti-ship missle ability is also vital in protecting the supply to your island, keeping the sea lanes free of swedish naval vessels (With the exception of submarines, speaking of which ASW is very expensive, and you might not be able to afford it)

Yeah, any defense effort would need to really integrate all angles there. Especially since you don't really have any "fallback ground" from which support (like combat aircraft) could operate.

I'm thinking a couple Swiss-style artillery forts strategically placed so they can bombard any of the beaches (plus act against ships in a limited scope as well). Swiss because their newer artillery bunker concepts are surface installations hardened against airstrikes. A semi-mobile layered SAM cover, and a somewhat incremental anti-ship missile capability with decent range to cover at least a good part of your EEZ to the south-east as well. Naval mines to restrict hostile naval operations, and the land mines would mostly be to prevent enemy infantry insertions in unobserved zones, and to hinder enemy amphibious operations - while flail tanks and other methods are quite good at clearing them, they still herd any enemy movement into tight approach vectors, which are somewhat easier to defend, especially with artillery backup.

 

[Rythm]

However... I need some more information here. What are the political aims of Gotland? What is the ultimate goal of the Government? Who do they see as allies?

If the EU is not freindly, they can make themselves rich by becoming a large "Duty Free" zone... if they have a good harbor.

What kind of deal with Poland, and by extension, the US, is allowed here?

And... if there is really a group known as the Teutonic Knights in this day and age, what use can we make of these later-day Don Quixotes?

The political aim is to secure long-term peace and admission into the UN. NATO/EU-membership is not considered a necessity at this point, altough it might be of interest in some 10 years or so. Tourism and Duty-free shopping are to be the main income of foreign currency.

Poland, as a member of the EU, will not engage in any military cooperation in the short term (the three years we currently play with).

The US is a different matter: Since Sweden has no official military ties to the USA, the US view is that the matter should be handled by the europeans themselves. Peacefully. If any significant military build-up will commence (Brigade-level or above), USA might commence a reposition of Naval and/or Marine forces into the area. The US is willing to allow Gotland to buy US military equipment, so as to be able to build a detterence by themselves. This is limited to "average" technology, no 4th generation fighters, UAVs or similar high-tech. But basic AFVs, patrolboats and the like is granted.

Ah, the Knights. They actually do exist, they run a hospital in Vienna. The political/military impact of them is insignificant as such. However, the Radical Nationalists parties in Germany use the claim for their own purposes. These parties hold no power in parliment, but could become troublesome for the german chancellor internally.

 

[kato]

Let's come up with something solid... here's a sample OrBat:

Army:

0. Brigade Command
...a) Staff Company (150 men, active; 30 men, reserve)
...b) Infrastructure/Supply Company (150 men, civilian; 20 active)
...c) Medical Command (100 men, half active, half reserve)
...d) Central Maintenance Command (150 men, civilian; 20 active)

1. Engineer Battalion
...a) Staff/Logistics Company (100 men, active)
...b) 3x Engineer Company (100 men, half active, half reserve)
...c) 2x Heavy Engineer Company (80 men, half active, half reserve)

2. Light Infantry Regiment
...a) Staff/Logistics Company (110 men, active)
...b) 3x Infantry Company (120 men, active)
...c) 1x Fire Support Company (70 men, active)
...d) 1x Reconnaissance/Forward Observer Company (90 men, active)
...e) 3x Infantry Company (120 men, reserve)
...f) 1x Fire Support Company (70 men, reserve)
...g) 1x Reconnaissance/Forward Observer Company (90 men, reserve)

3. Artillery/Air-Defense Command
...a) Staff/Logistics Company (120 men, active)
...b) 2x Artillery Battery (80 men, active)
...c) 2x SSM Missile Battery (70 men, active)
...d) 2x SAM Missile Battery (70 men, active)
...e) 1x AA Gun Battery (80 men, active)
...f) 1x Artillery Battery (80 men, reserve)
...g) 1x AA Gun Battery (80 men, reserve)

4. Naval Army Component
...a) Patrol Squadron (120 men, active)
...b) Costal Support Squadron East (140 men, half active, half reserve)
...c) Costal Support Squadron West (140 men, half active, half reserve)
...d) Port Authority (70 civilian; 10 active)

5. Aviation Army Component
...a) Transport Squadron (50 men, active)
...b) Helicopter Squadron (50 men, active)
...c) Airbase Support / Maintenance Squadron (140 men, active)


Above comes up to a total of 2,300 men active plus 850 rapid-mobilization reserves (homeguard of sorts) plus 370 military-employed civilians. Numbers completely arbitrary of course, but it's nice to have something to work with.
Yes, the number for individual units are low, but we're going for posturing, not real strength, somewhat.

Now for the important thing: money (and yes, there's some calculation behind the below numbers actually).

Overall Budget: 240 million
Personnel Cost: 90 million
Basic Maintenance/Upkeep: 15 million
Logistics/Supply: 25 million

Leaves us with a basic figure of 110 million for acquisitions, secured over the next 3 years. The total initial acquisition process may not exceed 330 million therefore.

Equipment
Just as a rough shopping list. Don't want to spend too much, after all. I fully intend to keep using the impounded equipment.

What we're not covered with by impounds (and again, purely arbitrary):
- about 250 additional light/medium/heavy trucks and light vehicles
- about 40-50 light armoured vehicles and specialty engineer vehicles
- about 20 surface-to-surface/anti-ship missile launchers
- about 30 surface-to-air missile launchers
- about 20-30 heavy artillery guns
- about 20-30 medium/heavy mortars
- about 20-30 light anti-aircraft guns
- several helicopters
- several surveillance radar systems
- a few small inshore patrol boats
- a few larger boats with some limited cargo capacity
- small arms up to HMG/GMGs as needed
- ammunition

This shopping list IS doable with 330 million, i'd say.

Now, which sources would be acceptable politically? The US would be able to provide us with all the above, and i do intend to use that somewhat. But for variety: How about Norway (they're not in the EU, after all), including for military cooperation? Other sources, like Taiwan, Korea, Israel, Canada?

edit: Is Switzerland available? Shopping there would make it quite... easier.

edit2: in light of costs, i'm dropping numbers, slightly.

Btw, will there be a "Part 2" to this thread?

 

[Waylander]

Maybe a wargame.
Bets are open how long, without foreign help, Gotland is going to hold its own against nearly any potential baltic enemy.