Hypothetical Wargame A

[Izzy1]

Move number 1. Insurgency.

The island Gulf state of 'Baxrain' has fallen into social anarchy.

The oil-dependant economy has collapsed, diversification has failed - unemployment and dissatisfaction is rife. The Sunni-Islam Government has promised reform yet not delivered and the overwhelming Shia population - who make up 70% of the islands population have violently rebelled. The out-numbered State security forces however currently remain loyal to the Government.

They both now want power.

What would you do?


Take either side, suggest your plan. Real world countries and entities count - Iran for instance will support the Shia. I will fairly moderate with the advice of others. Lets see how it goes - silly plans/ideas ignored!

Lead your forces and good luck.

 

[T-95]

Move number 1. Insurgency.

The island Gulf state of 'Baxrain' has fallen into social anarchy.

The oil-dependant economy has collapsed, diversification has failed - unemployment and dissatisfaction is rife. The Sunni-Islam Government has promised reform yet not delivered and the overwhelming Shia population - who make up 70% of the islands population have violently rebelled. The out-numbered State security forces however currently remain loyal to the Government.

They both now want power.

What would you do?


Take either side, suggest your plan. Real world countries and entities count - Iran for instance will support the Shia. I will fairly moderate with the advice of others. Lets see how it goes - silly plans/ideas ignored!

Lead your forces and good luck.

If I was the gov't I would call on a Pan-Arab peacekeeping force (mainly Egypt, SA and Jordan) to be deployed in Iraq....I mean in Baxrain. The peacekeeping force should be numbered at around 450,000 with 1,500 tanks (M1A1, M1A2) as well as having air planes deployed for close-air support (50 Tornado's) and planes to defend Baxrain/Iraq's air space and maintain air superiority (30 F-15's and 70 F-16's). This should be enough to get the job done while protecting Baxrain from any external threat mainly Iran. Baxrain's already existing Security force numbered at around 350,000 would also support the 450,000 foreign troops stationed there.

If Baxrain's gov't wants to satisfy it's Shi'ite population, deploy an additional 250,000 peacekeepers from Iran to quell suspicions of the gov't trying to begin a process of ethnic cleansing by calling in a peacekeeping force made entirely of Sunni Muslims.

 

[DoC_FouALieR]

A few questions...

How large is the island, and how many people are leaving in Baxrain ?
And about those loyal security forces, how many are they? And what kind of equipment do they have?

 

[Izzy1]

If I was the gov't I would call on a Pan-Arab peacekeeping force (mainly Egypt, SA and Jordan) to be deployed in Iraq....I mean in Baxrain. The peacekeeping force should be numbered at around 450,000 with 1,500 tanks (M1A1, M1A2) as well as having air planes deployed for close-air support (50 Tornado's) and planes to defend Baxrain/Iraq's air space and maintain air superiority (30 F-15's and 70 F-16's). This should be enough to get the job done while protecting Baxrain from any external threat mainly Iran. Baxrain's already existing Security force numbered at around 350,000 would also support the 450,000 foreign troops stationed there.

If Baxrain's gov't wants to satisfy it's Shi'ite population, deploy an additional 250,000 peacekeepers from Iran to quell suspicions of the gov't trying to begin a process of ethnic cleansing by calling in a peacekeeping force made entirely of Sunni Muslims.

Message
From: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Baxrain.
To: His Excellency, T-95.

First, can I give our gratious thanks for your support during our time of need. For the rulling House of Al-Khalifax, it will not be forgotten.

At the moment, the situation in Mananamah is grave. Deviant elements have surrounded the Ministry of Interior, they have blockaded roads to the airport and have started taking expatriates hostage. As you know, the US Navy's 15th Fleet is Headquarterd here - they are on maximum alert yet report no instances. Our Internal security forces are ready to respond.

I again thank you for your responsive and Brotherly response to our situation, but I ask you to hold. This is a Baxraini Government matter and we will resolve in kind.


May Allah guide us on this rightful quest.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Baxrain.

 

[Izzy1]

How large is the island, and how many people are leaving in Baxrain ?
And about those loyal security forces, how many are they? And what kind of equipment do they have?

Let's compare Baxrain to Bahrain. CIA World Factbook.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ba.html


Baxrain Defence Force
8,500 Strength.

3 x Armored Battalions - 140xM60A3 MBT
3 x Infantry Battlions - 100xM113A2 APC, 110xM3 Panhard APC
1 x Artillery Group - 62xM110A2 203mm, 9x227mmMRLS(ATACMS)

Highly trained, well equipped (including Javelin and TOW ATGW), relies heavily on non-Arab troops from Pakistan, Bangladesh. Officers heavily influenced on UK/US models. Advisers from Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.


Baxrain Police

10,000 Strength



Baxrain Special Security Force

1,000 strength

Non-Arab rapid security force. This force has a history of human-rights violations.

 

[Izzy1]

Islamic Republic News Agency

Baxrain Burning

After days of widespread protest, Mananama tonight is a scene of chaos. Bahrain's youth for the third night running had battles with Police and Security Forces as several leading Clerics called for calm and dialouge on the Island Kingdom. Special Security units however responded with Tear Gas and Batton Rounds in an effort to to disrupt the crowd. 56 were reported wounded.

Someone care to give a Government response?

 

[T-95]

Let's compare Baxrain to Bahrain. CIA World Factbook.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ba.html


Baxrain Defence Force
8,500 Strength.

3 x Armored Battalions - 140xM60A3 MBT
3 x Infantry Battlions - 100xM113A2 APC, 110xM3 Panhard APC
1 x Artillery Group - 62xM110A2 203mm, 9x227mmMRLS(ATACMS)

Highly trained, well equipped (including Javelin and TOW ATGW), relies heavily on non-Arab troops from Pakistan, Bangladesh. Officers heavily influenced on UK/US models. Advisers from Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.


Baxrain Police

10,000 Strength



Baxrain Special Security Force

1,000 strength

Non-Arab rapid security force. This force has a history of human-rights violations.

Excellent, now I don't think we can even fit 350,000 troops there.

My suggestion is as before except with reduced numbers. Egypt sends 35,000 troop Saudi can send 15,000 troops and Iran can send 35,000 troops, No planes and only 150 M1A1 from Egypt. Investigate any human rights violations made by security forces and remove and prosecute any personnel that might have committed these crimes. Establish a green zone from which the coalition army can operate, much like the US, but have your troops in active combat with insurgents on an everyday basis to capture any strongholds they may have to gain complete control over Baxrain and to insure the safety of civilians. Battling insurgency is a job that would be left for the Iranian, Baxraini and Egyptian troops while securing check points, protecting civilian infrastructure (like schools, hospitals,etc.) and territory gained by the coalition army is done by the Saudi Arabian forces(with Bradley IFV's and armored HUMVEE's). Jordan can send 850 troops protected by the Saudi Arabian troops to carry out humanitarian aid missions funded by SA. About 45,000 Baxrainis are sent to training facilities in Jordan, Egypt and Saudi for training to eventually take over after the coalition army withdraws.

 

[falcon2k7]

Iran working with the other Gulf states is very unlikely. It's more of an Arab/Persian split than religion. That being said, Iran is likely to support the local population in uprising. The destabilization in oil supplies causes the markets to shoot up, which is very good for Iran, anything to get back at the Arabs for supporting Saddam in the 1980's.

My thinking from an American POV.

During the first 24 hours, put 5th Fleet on alert to evacuate any remaining US citizens at the embassy. This would include a stepped up show of force and reassurances to other Gulf States that the sea lanes would remain open and stand ready to ensure the conflict remains internal. Basically a defacto blockade against outside (Iranian) intervention.

Approach the OPEC states and Russia and see if they can increase output to mitigate the supply disruption. Quietly ask the Chinese to do the same, it's in mutual self-interest. High oil prices affect them more than anyone at this stage. This is also the time to start circulating language around the UN. Since it's an internal affair, there is not much the UN can do other than talk.

Next, make sure the Arab League is engaged in offering a solution and see if they can work out a solution in the first 72 hours. The EU can also be a broker in this type of arraignment. Especially with providing the ruling party a way out through exile, etc..

At this point it becomes a wait and see.

 

[Izzy1]

Broadcast from Bahraini State Television and Radio.

Transcript of HH King Hamad Al Khalifa:

Fellow Bahrainis,

"Join me at the most grave of times. Forces of an outside power have conspired against us. I call on all true Bahrainis to stand together behind the legitimate Government and ward off this threat.

For all we have built and all hold dear, our home island shall not become the want of others. We stand by our principles; grasp our rights – for we are Bahrainis. Let all others be warned, this is our nation.

May we all hold strong during this darkest of hour."



Bahrain within hours is under martial law.

 

[SuperSixOne]

I would aim to please the people first, start giving out government aide and talking to foreign private companies in making employment opportunities avalible inside your country. Once it gets settled down I would start the reorg. process.

 

[T-95]

I would aim to please the people first, start giving out government aide and talking to foreign private companies in making employment opportunities avalible inside your country. Once it gets settled down I would start the reorg. process.

There's insurgency that would be impossible.

 

[SuperSixOne]

There's insurgency that would be impossible.

Insurgency's allways have a goal, and in this case it looks like they are unhappy with the living conditions and political climate, just like Tonga is today.

Improve the living conditions and they will be happy with the political climate because they are getting what they want.

 

[metro]

Insurgency's allways have a goal, and in this case it looks like they are unhappy with the living conditions and political climate, just like Tonga is today.

Improve the living conditions and they will be happy with the political climate because they are getting what they want.

I agree with T95, asking for investments during "problematic times," is sort of like a bank manager asking for increased money drop offs while the bank is being robbed. Just won't happen.

Investment after bad times or during peaceful times, is definitely critical.

 

[beleg]

What about ethnical situations in this state? Is it a one nation state with 2 sects of same religion? Or is it multi ethnical , multi religious state?

If its Iraq we are talking about , Turkey will definitely be a part of the peacekeeping issue because of Iraqi Turks.

 

[Izzy1]

Bahrain's Ethnic state;

Bahrain's Population Etnic Mix;

65% population Shia Islam.
20% population Sunni Islam (including the rulling Family).
15% remaining population Hindu, Seikh, Christian, Jewish, Catholic (mostly all expat workers).

However,

Bahrain's security forces;

Officer corps of the Military and Police exclusively Bahraini Sunni. High use of Pakistani and Sunni Arabs within the rest of the ranks of the military and especially Police riot squads. Well paid, looked after and loyal to the rulling regime.

 

[fockewulf190]

From the insurgent's POV.

An encryption in one of the emails of the insurgent leaders to his deputies.

Where the hell is my sat phone? Its confiscated i guess. Need a new sat phone, asap. I need to contact Al-KUIDA, we need all the help we can get.
This is going to be another ticket to paradise, my mujahids, we gonna chase out all these foreign infidels and their pawns from our sacred holy land.
(since I don't know the total population of the country, i assumed a ratio of 10:1 with the total security forces, thats about 200,000 (approx), and 70% of those shias I have like 140000 + 20000 (sunnis who are dissatisfied with the government), so about 160000 and since there is a civil uprising i assume 150000+ of those are loyal to the uprising)

so well with about 10000 Aks assult rifles and other guns, RPG, SVDs, Fyadeen Squads, Toyota pick-up trucks, Landmines, and an urban environments. We got a fair chance.

Plans and objectives,
1) Cut off all modes of communications
2) Destroy infrastructures (power, water, anything that would be used by the loyalist against us)
3) Divide the loyalist forces, attact them at places of our choice, hit them hard and then vanish before they can retaliate ( he loyalist got enough resources to cut us down to size in face to face encounter)
4) Demoralise them by repeated suicide attacks, sniper attacks etc.
5) Plead to Other Muslim comrades of the excesses and henious acts done by the loyalist.

Insha Allah, we will win.
Over and out.