Check out the CAS Turboprop thread
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5527
It has some discussion on CAS/COIN operations. At present, UAVs can't replace CAS/COIN aircraft like the A-10. UAVs are great C4ISR support assets, but they are with few exceptions, not combat capable. CAS aircraft in addition to the sensor packages (which depend on tech of operators) can mount a range of guns and ordnance which is the distinction between recon and attack assets.
Now if you meant UAV vs. light observation aircraft then I would agree with you, as long as the operating force has the maintenance skills needed to perform upkeep on the UAV. I'm not sure that many of the nations in need of CAS/COIN aircraft in South America, Africa or Southeast Asia have the requisite technical base.
-Cheers
They don't have the maintenance skills to perform upkeep on a tiny UAV, but do on a manned aircraft?
Maybe that's true if you strip the turboprop of advanced electronics (like the SAFIRE on Super Tucano), but otherwise, I disagree.
In Iraq, there are very few airstrikes these days. The vast majority of sorties are recon/surveillance. It's just much harder to find targets than it is to kill them.
And as i've said before, i think manned aircraft and UAVs are complementary. In an ideal world you'd have a hi-lo mix with a small number of manned aircraft and a large number of UAVs.
Though I still favor arming a larger MPA style aircraft with PGMs over flying turboprop trainers. They can just carry larger loads, stay aloft much longer, and can have better ISR suites.
You won't see a 1500km range on a Super Tucano once you slap a couple Mk 82 class weapons on it.
Plus, most non-land locked nations will be buying MPAs anyway. Though I supposed if they have any fighter aircraft, they'll probably have a turboprop trainer fleet too.