War Against ISIS

STURM

Well-Known Member
....one hand you can't just let dictators do that,
In a world without hypocrisy anyone guilty of war crimes would be held accountable; not just those whom the U.S. or the West decides should be held accountable.

For some reason, as much as the democrats and republicans hate each other here, they agree and have no issue on potentially get heavily involved in Syria. Anyone know why?
Lets start from the beginning. They were under the illusion that moderate rebels would defeat both the extremist IS and non democratic Assad and would go on to establish a democratic Western friendly Syria; which would in turn severe ties with Iran. In the longer term practically the whole of the Middle East would be Western friendly, there would be no IS or groups like it, Iran would have no Arab ally and Russian influence in the region would go downwards. Everyone would be happy.

At present the U.S. has no clear policy over Syria. Most of what it tried to do has failed. Striking Assad would look great but in reality wouldn't accomplish much.

Does it spell doom for the west to let Putin and his gang influence the middle east starting in Syria?
The U.S. has dominated the region for decades. Why would a Russian presence in Syria ''spell doom for the west''? Given that the U.S. has had it way in the region for decades and the region is a big mess; a Russian presence in Syria [which dates back to the Cold War] may be a stabilising factor. Irrespective of how one feels about Putin lets not forget that Russia [along with Iran] played a big role in preventing IS gaining victory in Syria. An IS victory in Syria would have had major implications in Iraq and elsewhere.

As Theresa May gears up for war in Syria, we should remember what hypocrites we are about chemical warfare in the Middle East

''This does not mean any excuses for the Syrian government – though I suspect, having seen Russia’s Syrian involvement with my own eyes, that Putin might have been getting impatient about ending the war and wanted to eradicate those in the last tunnels of Douma rather than wait through more weeks of fighting. Remember the cruelty of Grozny.''

''But in our desire to concentrate minds on Syria, we’re not mentioning the Iran gassings – Iran being another one of our present-day enemies, of course – and this may be because of our lack of official memory. More likely it’s because of what happened: the institutionalisation of chemical warfare, the use of chemicals by Saddam who was then an ally of the West and of all the Gulf Sunni states, our frontline Sunni hero. The thousands of Iranian soldiers who were to die were referred to on Iraqi radio after they crossed the frontier. The “Persian insects” had crossed the border, it announced. And that’s how they were treated. For the precursors for the Iraqi gas came largely from the United States – one from New Jersey – and US military personnel later visited the battlefront without making any comments about the chemicals which were sold to the Iraqi regime, of course, for “agricultural” purposes. That’s how to deal with insects, is it not?''

''This is a very bad moment in Middle East history – and, as usual, it is the Palestinians who will suffer, their own tragedy utterly forgotten amid this madness. So we are going to “war”, are we? And how do we get out of this war once we have started it? Any plans, anyone? What if there’s a gigantic screw-up, which wars do tend to usually produce? What happens then?''
 
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the concerned

Active Member
What I would like to know is how was this chemical weapon launched was it bomb or artillery. If it was a bomb the best option would be for Putin to ground the Syrian airforce and provide jtac and close air support for the Syrian forces like how we provided the same for Afghan forces. That way a more precision based strike can take place a war gets avoided and the Russians still get to support their allies
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I saw a report that it was a barrel bomb dropped by helicopter but have no idea how accurate this report was.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm not sold that Assad was behind the chemical attack in Duma, and in fact there is some lingering doubt about whether the attack even took place. Early into the push, Russian sources openly stated that the rebels are preparing a false flag attack using chemical weapons. Then during the push a chemical weapons lab was discovered belonging, allegedly, to one of the rebel groups in Eastern Ghouta. Now, at the very end, when the Eastern Ghouta pocket is done for, a chemical weapon attack does nothing for Assad, and instead provides a convenient excuse for a US strike, something US elites have been pushing Trump towards for quite some time (despite his own desires to make friendly with Putin). The whole thing smells bad. I'll post a big update later today, or tomorrow, if I have time.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I have seen some reports suggesting this attack doesn't make a lot of sense for Assad given his continuing advances but WTF knows? His track record makes it pretty easy for rebels to blame him for anything they may have done themselves. Very risky for rebels to do this though, if it is proven they were n fact behind the attack, there cause is done for and Assad will be in total control subject to Russian and Iranian influence.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Duma has surrendered. The last rebels from there are being bused north to Idlib.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4108781.html

Russian MinDef has accused Britain of staging the chemical attack in Duma, claiming they've found the participants that "acted" in the videos. This comes as Syrian news sources report on a second chemical weapons lab found in Eastern Ghouta.

This accusations comes after Russian Military Police entered Duma, and investigated the scene of the alleged chemical strike.

Meanwhile Bellingcat has done an OSINT analysis of the alleged strikes, and concluded that the strikes were probably carried out by government helicopters using typical chemical containers. It's noteworthy that Bellingcat corroborates the Russian claim that their MPs visited the site of the alleged attack. Personally I also find it interesting that they couched their conclusion in probability, whereas usually they point the finger far more confidently at Assad or Russia.

All of this comes as Russia is requesting an international investigation by the OPCW. Possibly related, the WHO has expressed concerns over the alleged chemical attack in Duma.

Англичанка гадит
Химическая лаборатория в Афтарисе
В сирийский город Дума вводится российская военная полиция, сообщил Генштаб
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/men...lleged-chemical-attacks-douma-7th-april-2018/
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2018/chemical-attacks-syria/en/
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/755982.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1860546.html

US strikes against Syria are delayed, or possibly cancelled entirely. Contradictory tweets from the president continue. On top of this is a statement from Gen. Mattis stating that the evidence regarding this chemical attack is still being evaluated.

Note Russia stated, through their ambassador to Lebanon, that they will not only shoot down missiles but also strike the launch platforms. Whether this is a real threat is somewhat questionable but it certainly means that now, before carrying out a strike, the US needs to ensure it has enough assets in the area to stop a potential Russian attack on their ships and aircraft.

Meanwhile, nearly all of Russia's vessels in Tartus left port suggesting Russia takes the US threat to be credible, or at least wants the US to think it does. Though the official reason is "training exercises".

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4118557.html
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/984094203306303488
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4113764.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4113983.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/11apr2018/posol.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4114353.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4114353.html

It appears that the recent strike against T4 airbase was carried out by Israel, firing 8 missiles out of which 5 were allegedly shot down, with the US denying involvement. The remaining missiles still did damage, killing 2 Iranians and wounding 7. There are also reports of EW systems from outside Syria being used to compromise Syrian EW. Note, the base and hangar that were targeted are known to house Iranian UCAVs. Following the strike Putin spoke on the phone with the Israeli Prime Minister and urged him to respect Syrian sovereignty. Note Russian military advisers and troops are occasionally at T4 but it appears none were anywhere near the hangar in question.

https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/758624.html
http://classic.newsru.com/russia/11apr2018/putinnetanyahu.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/755770.html
https://twower.livejournal.com/2246689.html
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/756302.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1859372.html
https://riafan.ru/1044946-siriya-ko...drobnosti-raketnoi-ataki-na-bazu-t-4-v-khomse
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1858777.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4110301.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/09apr2018/syria_usa.html

One of Syrian Airlines 3 Il-76T aircraft has completed overhaul in Russia.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3157973.html

A new bridge has been set up across the Euphrates near Deyr-ez-Zor.

https://vk.com/video153571047_456239025?list=cfcc82e0ff0552df8f

Neither the Russian nor the US resolution on the chemical attacks in Duma made it through the UN Security Council.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/11apr2018/ruprojectdenied.html
http://classic.newsru.com/world/10apr2018/veto.html

Footage of 4 US MQ-9 Reapers over Deyr Ez Zor province.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1861855.html

Documents have surfaced suggesting that Doctors Without Borders handed money over to Syrian rebels in Eastern Ghouta. The money is marked to be for the hospital, but it's unlikely they could provide sufficient oversight over how the funds were spent.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4110421.html

Aerial shots of an armored repair plant at Homs shows large numbers of damaged vehicles waiting for overhauls.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4100945.html

There are reports of two US convoys in Syrian Kuridstan being hit, with killed and wounded. One was reportedly hit by an IED wounding 6 and killing 8, the other by an ambush killing 2 and wounding 8. Note, at this time the sources for these claims are flimsy and independent confirmation is lacking.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4096249.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1837303.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1838345.html
 

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
Am I the only one more than a little concerned by all this? I don't recall the US and Russia facing off like this since the Cuban missile crisis...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Apparently we're looking at ~120 missiles, with targets including research facilities in Damascus, as well as a munition depot in Homs, and the bases of the 105th Republican Guards and 41st Special Forces brigades. US General Joseph Dunford says they did not forewarn Russia of the strikes but did choose targets that would minimize the changes that Russian forces would be involved. Despite this there are reports that some of the Syrian facilities that were targeted were evacuated in advance. Also apparently neither the presidential palace nor the government quarter in Damascus were hit so far.

США, Великобритания и Франция нанесли удар по Сирии

As the strikes go, Britain calls Russian allegations of staging the chemical attack in Duma a lie.

"Это вопиющая ложь": Великобритания ответила на обвинения РФ в адрес Лондона в организации "химатаки" в Сирии

Some photos and videos of the missiles in the sky. Preliminary reports indicate that a few missiles were shot down, which isn't entirely surprising.

https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/763238.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_680168
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_680033

EDIT: It appears to have been a limited strike that is now over, which also isn't entirely surprising given the relatively small number of warships available.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Russian reaction will be interesting.

BBC posted video of SAM launch in Damascus.
US and allies launch strikes on Syria
I suspect diplomatic condemnation and posturing. I don't think this strike will fundamentally change the layout in Syria. It will be curious to see if Russia participated in shooting down the missiles like they claimed they would. The capabilities are certainly there, and they wouldn't be risking much by using 4-8 fighters to take some potshots at cruise missiles. It would be very telling if Russia did nothing.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I'm not sold that Assad was behind the chemical attack in Duma, and in fact there is some lingering doubt about whether the attack even took place.
I tend to agree about the Assad part but footage clearly shows people suffering from what what looks like the aftermath of a chemical attack.

His track record makes it pretty easy for rebels to blame him for anything they may have done themselves.
True but we must also add the fact that his external enemies [citing intelligence] are eager to punish him for any alleged wrong doing. It fits the overall narrative to have an evil dictator use chemicals on innocent civilians and on rebels. Never mind that these rebels may have performed a bit of war crimes themselves.

Very risky for rebels to do this though, if it is proven they were n fact behind the attack, there cause is done for and Assad will be in total control subject to Russian and Iranian influence.
If indeed rebels were behind the attack, they have more to gain by doing what they did. They're suffering reverses everywhere and they know that Assad's enemies will reply with a strike. They want greater external involvement to weaken Assad.

I don't recall the US and Russia facing off like this since the Cuban missile crisis...
The October War/ Yom Kippur. Had the Israelis continued the war and destroyed the trapped Egyptian 3rd Army; the Soviets would have poured troops into Egypt. U.S. and Soviet naval ships in the Mediterranean were also placed on high alert.

It's very ironic how countries that are at odds with each other can find common ground : Turkey, like Israel supports the strikes but overall relations between both countries are strained. If the West goes all out to hit Assad with a sustained air/missile campaign; it will weaken his ability to deal not only with ''moderate'' rebels but also with non moderate ones; who will benefit from the strikes. I'm pretty sure that all the rebels, irrespective of ''moderate'' or not, are hoping for a clash between Russia and the West.

In a speech Trump spoke of Saudi and other Gulf States cooperating to limit Iranian influence. That's music to the ears of the Gulf Arabs and to Iranian hardliners as well; it provides a further reminder that the U.S. has taken sides in the Sunni Arab/Iranian Cold War being fought.

 
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gazzzwp

Member
I'm not sold that Assad was behind the chemical attack in Duma, and in fact there is some lingering doubt about whether the attack even took place. Early into the push, Russian sources openly stated that the rebels are preparing a false flag attack using chemical weapons. Then during the push a chemical weapons lab was discovered belonging, allegedly, to one of the rebel groups in Eastern Ghouta. Now, at the very end, when the Eastern Ghouta pocket is done for, a chemical weapon attack does nothing for Assad, and instead provides a convenient excuse for a US strike, something US elites have been pushing Trump towards for quite some time (despite his own desires to make friendly with Putin). The whole thing smells bad. I'll post a big update later today, or tomorrow, if I have time.
Look at the logistics of this theory: You have a suburb of Damascus about to be over-run by Syrian forces. Many rebels already being abandoned. The war for them is over. Sure they may fight another day further north but that is not the issue. How would they have had the luxury to launch a local chemical attack under these conditions? Why didn't they try and launch it against the regime?

It's a highly far fetched theory when you look at the logistics and the actual theatre of battle at the time.
 

gazzzwp

Member
I suspect diplomatic condemnation and posturing. I don't think this strike will fundamentally change the layout in Syria. It will be curious to see if Russia participated in shooting down the missiles like they claimed they would. The capabilities are certainly there, and they wouldn't be risking much by using 4-8 fighters to take some potshots at cruise missiles. It would be very telling if Russia did nothing.
Feanor any idea what the Brits used and where there planes came from? I can't find any sources at the moment.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Look at the logistics of this theory: You have a suburb of Damascus about to be over-run by Syrian forces. Many rebels already being abandoned. The war for them is over. Sure they may fight another day further north but that is not the issue. How would they have had the luxury to launch a local chemical attack under these conditions? Why didn't they try and launch it against the regime?

It's a highly far fetched theory when you look at the logistics and the actual theatre of battle at the time.
It's not a far fetched theory and it is plausible. There's more to this than meets the eye and we are not privileged to have access to the intelligence. Having said that, even though Assad does have form for gas attacks, we cannot categorically state that he is responsible for the latest attack.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Feanor any idea what the Brits used and where there planes came from?
There was footage somewhere of Tornados being launched from Cyprus.

Why didn't they try and launch it against the regime?
Launching it against the regime would not result in worldwide condemnation and Western strikes. Launching it against civilians carries far more benefits; namely strikes on Assad and the potential for a Western/Russian clash.

What I don't get is why flares were launched over Dasmascus.


On another matter a speaker on Al Jazeera mentioned Russia saying that S-400s are only based in Tartus and Khmeimim. If that's indeed the case what Russian missiles were used to shoot down the missiles that Russia claims it shot down?
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
On another matter a speaker on Al Jazeera mentioned Russia saying that S-400s are only based in Tartus and Khmeimim. If that's indeed the case what Russian missiles were used to shoot down the missiles that Russia claims it shot down?
Russia, to the best of my knowledge, hasn't claimed to shoot down any missiles... Also as far as I know there is an S-300V4 protecting Tartus and an S-400 protecting Khmeimeem. There were unconfirmed reports of additional S-400 deployments, but they are just that; unconfirmed.

Look at the logistics of this theory: You have a suburb of Damascus about to be over-run by Syrian forces. Many rebels already being abandoned. The war for them is over. Sure they may fight another day further north but that is not the issue. How would they have had the luxury to launch a local chemical attack under these conditions? Why didn't they try and launch it against the regime?

It's a highly far fetched theory when you look at the logistics and the actual theatre of battle at the time.
Syrian sources claim two chemical weapons labs were found in Eastern Ghouta. Under such circumstances it wouldn't be a luxury at all. And using it against regime forces would accomplish nothing. Look at the pattern of chemical attacks in this war. They all have had relatively little military significance. Against the massive regime force surrounding Eastern Ghouta, a small chemical attack would not do significant damage. Meanwhile it would make the rebels look bad and bolster Assad's narrative of fighting against terrorists. Hit civilians, and blame Assad for the strike, and suddenly 100+ cruise missiles rain on government facilities. There is nothing logistically complex about this.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
You’re right. The Russians didn’t make such a claim. They claimed the Syrians managed to shoot down several Tomahawks. If indeed they did, we can expect them to display parts of the missiles they shot down. On the other hand, they can still display parts of missiles (like they did previously) and claim that those were shot down.

Like everyone else here I have no idea who was really responsible for the chemical attack but I find it hard to believe that Assad would resort to chemicals (when he mostly won the war) and bring himself open to attack and condemnation. On the other hand surely the U.S. and others would ensure they have firm evidence before launching a strike but then again countries have been known to act based on flawed or incomplete intel.
 

Strannik

Member
You’re right. The Russians didn’t make such a claim. They claimed the Syrians managed to shoot down several Tomahawks..
Well, 71 actually. That is out of 103. One of cause could say 'several' but it in this situation 'almost all' does look more appropriate.
 
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