gazzzwp
Member
I'm convinced they have another agenda which is to stop the Iranians from becoming established on the East West axis.
This will never be another Vietnam simply because troop commitment has been too small.
War Against ISIS
- Thread starter spikehades
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This will never be another Vietnam simply because troop commitment has been too small.
The Iranians are already ''established''. Thanks to to Bush Jr. Iraq is now led by a Shia government and ties with Iran are at an all time high. Iran has long had a powerful proxy in Lebanon which has a political base and widespread support not only from the Shias but also other elements of Lebanese society that see Hezbollah a standing up to Israel. The Iranians are also heavily involved in Syria where they - like in Iraq - played a part in rolling back IS. Given that decades of trying to isolate Iran has failed one would think that the U.SA. would want to try a different approach. Whether they like it or not; Iran is a influential player in the region and there will never be long term stability without Iran being involved.
I think before we speculate what the U.S. seeks in Syria we first have to determine what the Sunni Gulf Arabs want. Without any doubt what they seek is the removal of a Baathist Alawite led Syria with a Sunni one; one that cuts ties with Iran and is friendly and subservient with their Sunni brethren in the Gulf. This will not only considerably weaken and isolate Iran but will also affect groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon. In the early 2000's talk between Syria/Israel broke down after Israel agreed to return parts of the Golan in return for Syria severing ties with Iran.
Since the Cold War U.S. priority has always been to ensure the security of Israel; even if it means doing or saying things that benefit Israel but are damaging to U.S. long term interests. Coming second is guaranteeing the security of the oil rich Sunni Gulf states. For the Gulf states the presence of the U.S. military on their soil and in the region provides security not only against other Arab states but also against the possibility of region change. However much the U.S. rants about democracy and human rights; it still suits the U.S. for the Arab states to remain as they are rather than becoming true democracies. Citizens of democratic Arab states might demand the withdrawal of the Western military presence on Arab land and might demand their government's base their relationships with the U.S. on the U.S. becoming a neutral broker in the Israeli/Palestine dispute.
What the Israelis really want is harder to figure out. One would think that the Israelis would want Assad to remain in power as Assad has shown his main priority is regime survival not waging war on Israel to regain the Golan. A problem for the Israelis is that a post Assad Syria might be led by a government which insists that Israel return the Golan [occupied illegally under international law] before relations can be normalised with Israel. Even if Israel were to return the Golan there's no guarantee that Syria's new rulers might then insist that the Israeli/Palestine issue be resolved.
Israel wants to weaken the SAA, so that the war is prolonged. For the past 3 days they are performing airstrikes in support of an important HTS-led counteroffensive against the SAA. The airstrikes are supposedly as retaliation for "projectiles" landing on israeli territory or some such. 
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I believe Israel has no problem with a prolonged war, even a quagmire. And they are fine with a partition of Syria, anything to prevent a shia-aligned regime from controlling the country again. Israel itself is not under any kind of threat, their motives are all about Iran's influence, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Anyway, overall, the SAA are improving their position and more and more iranian proxies are brought into Syria as the situation in Iraq improves. Regardless of the cost to human lives and money, I don't think Iran will reduce its participation in the syrian civil war, it will probably increase it still! Because it is bearing fruit.
:I believe Israel has no problem with a prolonged war, even a quagmire. And they are fine with a partition of Syria, anything to prevent a shia-aligned regime from controlling the country again. Israel itself is not under any kind of threat, their motives are all about Iran's influence, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Anyway, overall, the SAA are improving their position and more and more iranian proxies are brought into Syria as the situation in Iraq improves. Regardless of the cost to human lives and money, I don't think Iran will reduce its participation in the syrian civil war, it will probably increase it still! Because it is bearing fruit.
Maybe but the fact remains that under Assad Israel knew what to expect from Syria. With Syria under a new leadership Israel might be pressured to return the Golan. Also, Syria's new rulers might show a lot of support/solidarity with the Palestinians and declare that Israeli/Syria ties can never be normal until the Palestinian issue is finally resolved. A partitioned Syria might benefit Israel because Israel can continue holding on to the Golan but the danger is that a partitioned Syria might in the long term create more instability on Israel's borders.
On another matter Vice News has footage of IS people who made across the Golan into Israel and who were given medical treatment.
That goes without being said; Syria is of vital strategic importance importance to Iran. Its imply cannot allow IS to take over or to allow Sunni rebel groups [aligned with the Gulf states] to become too powerful. What eventually happens in Syria will have major consequences for Iran. Same with Iraq where the Iranians rushed troops in as soon as IS started gaining ground.
As Robert Fisk has reported; Syrian troops are often critical of the performance of Iranian troops [who have less battlefield experience than the Syrians] but the fact remains that the arrival of the Iranians in Syria and Iraq not only played a big part in stemming the IS tide and gave the Syrians and Iraqis time to get heir act together. In the case of the Syrians they were severely overstretched.
[Russia Is At A Dead-End in Syria]
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/06/russia-dead-syria-170622113411176.html
''The main danger for Moscow lies in the fact that Trump, unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, does not have any clear strategy with regards to Syria. He has no principles and no general understanding about what he would like to achieve in the medium term.''
''In this sense, Moscow is increasingly at risk of being held hostage by Damascus and Tehran, which will continue to provoke Washington, forcing the Kremlin to respond and take measures against the US''.
According to the writer, Russia is ''struggling and failing to find a way out of the Syrian quagmire''. He also questions how far Russia is willing to go with Iran at the risk of damaging relations with the U.S. and suggests that Russia might pull out from the Middle East in exchange for better relations with the West. The problem here is that Syria is vital to Russia and Russia desires to be a player in the region; a region long dominated by the West. It's also questionable if indeed the Obama administration had a ''clear strategy with regards to Syria'' as the writer maintains.
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Putin will not abandon Syria in exchange for "better relations with the West", he is not a fool. And I don't see this conflict as a quagmire at all, the SAA are making progress. Al Jazeera have their own agenda... don't swallow their propaganda. Quagmire .... :
And I think you apply too much "loser's logic" to Israel. They will not give up any territory, they will not be under threat, they will not be pressured to do anything. They are playing their geopolitical hand from a position of power and safety. They have bombed Syria multiple times without retaliation, for example.
:And I think you apply too much "loser's logic" to Israel. They will not give up any territory, they will not be under threat, they will not be pressured to do anything. They are playing their geopolitical hand from a position of power and safety. They have bombed Syria multiple times without retaliation, for example.
Tsavo Lion
Banned Member
The emerging Turkish-Iranian alliance will also help Russia which also has, besides Syria, Armenia & Azerbaijan conflit to worry about. The post-coup Turkey needs alliances as never before. I wonder, if war (all out or not) breaks out around Qatar involving Iran & Saudi Arabia, how'll the situation in Syria be affected?
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Given Saudi Arabia's horrible military performance in Yemen, Saudi Arabia will not be going to war with Iran unless the US okays it. Can't see that happening. The other Gulf states, regardless of what they think of Qatar, know how such a conflict could be the end of their existence so they won't be eager.
It was the writer's opinion. What he wrote doesn't necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's official stance.Al Jazeera have their own agenda... don't swallow their propaganda. Quagmire ....
Not sure what ''losers logic'' is but judging from the past; Israel will give up territory when it has no choice or when it's in its interests to do so : Sinai, South Lebanon, Gaza, etc. At the moment with regards to the Golan that's not going to happen and the fact remains that a fractured Syria will be in no position to negotiate on the return of the Golan. At the moment Israel has nothing to gain from returning the Golan and it can argue; nobody to negotiate with
Israel's official stance is that it needs the Golan for strategic depth but the fact remains that neither Assad Jr. or his father had any desire to go to way over the Golan. Also, not too long ago a senior IDF official [if memory serves me, a retired one] said that Israel had such a clear military advantage over Syria that its security would not be compromised even if the Golan were returned. In the unlikely event that Assad falls and Syria is ruled by ''moderates'' who are Western friendly and who have no beef with Israel; Israel would have very little excuse to keep hanging on to the Golan; especially if the U.S. decides it should do so.
Turkey has always wanted good relations with the Arabs but was forced to turn to Israel in the 1990's when the Arabs weren't so keen. Robert Kaplan points out that part of the reason the Arabs still view the Turks with distrust is due to history; for a very long time the Ottoman Turks ruled over the Arabs.
War with Qatar will never erupt as long as Uncle Sam is around and Iran will never start something unless it has no absolutely alternative.
[What Is The Qatar-GCC Showdown Really About?]
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/06/qatar-gcc-crisis-reasons-170625140544893.html
Despite the billions spent on its military; its hardly surprising that Saudi and its allies have faced so much problems in Yemen. None of these countries have a military structured\organised or even the doctrine or know how to wage a sustained conflict beyond their borders. As it is the U.S. provided logistical and intel support. Who knows, perhaps the Saudis had banked on the U.S. eventually getting involved militarily.
Like the West in Iraq and Afghanistan; Saudi and its allies have found out the hard way that getting out isn't as easy as getting it. If they had read their history they would have remembered how Nasser got himself stuck in Yemen and failed to achieve any of his military or political objectives.
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The BMPT has show up in Syria. It's actually the regular BMPT, not the BMPT-72, though it kind of looks like the latter because it has containers to protect the ATGMs.
Note, also, the BTR-D. This vehicle was not previously seen in Syria.
Gur Khan attacks!: СенÑациÑ! БМПТ уже в Сирии и предÑтавлена Башару ÐÑаду
Башар и БМПТ - Andrei-bt
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3507622.html
Note, also, the BTR-D. This vehicle was not previously seen in Syria.
Gur Khan attacks!: СенÑациÑ! БМПТ уже в Сирии и предÑтавлена Башару ÐÑаду
Башар и БМПТ - Andrei-bt
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3507622.html
Isn't this the BMPT-72 Terminator 2?
The Russian BMPT-72 Terminator 2 - TankNutDave.com
Isn't it the same as this one in Khmeimim?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDVPYnfXcAEKjDh.jpg
The Russian BMPT-72 Terminator 2 - TankNutDave.com
Isn't it the same as this one in Khmeimim?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDVPYnfXcAEKjDh.jpg
No. Only the casing around the ATGMs is from the BMPT-72. Note the retained forward facing AGS-17s on each side, right above the tracks. A terrible design decision, that also requires two extra crew.
Tsavo Lion
Banned Member
Trump‘s Red Line
The real target of D.Trump's threats towards Syria is not Bashar al-Assad, but Iran
That's right. But it's a failing strategy. When choosing which opponent to attack 1st, it's better to start with the strongest. Earlier, there was an attempt to provoke a war with Iran that, by some accounts, Adm. Fallon stopped, saying "Not on my watch!"
Now in Syria, the US is dealing with Iran backed by both Russia & Turkey. OTH, if Saudi Arabia stays on the present course it may end up in it's own civil war and break up, with or w/o outside help- after all, Iraq, Syria, Yemen (de-facto), Libya, Sudan + Yugoslavia & Ethiopia (de-jure) already underwent this process. Also recall what happened to the Argentine junta after the Falkland fiasco & to the USSR after its intervention in Afghanistan ended. Her situation vis a vis Iran is similar to that of S. Korea vs. N. Korea, except they face BMs instead of artillery. Meanwhile, US Attacks ISIS Prison, Killing Dozens of Civilians: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/57-dead-us-led-air-strikes-prison-monitor-1407304836
The real target of D.Trump's threats towards Syria is not Bashar al-Assad, but Iran
That's right. But it's a failing strategy. When choosing which opponent to attack 1st, it's better to start with the strongest. Earlier, there was an attempt to provoke a war with Iran that, by some accounts, Adm. Fallon stopped, saying "Not on my watch!"
Now in Syria, the US is dealing with Iran backed by both Russia & Turkey. OTH, if Saudi Arabia stays on the present course it may end up in it's own civil war and break up, with or w/o outside help- after all, Iraq, Syria, Yemen (de-facto), Libya, Sudan + Yugoslavia & Ethiopia (de-jure) already underwent this process. Also recall what happened to the Argentine junta after the Falkland fiasco & to the USSR after its intervention in Afghanistan ended. Her situation vis a vis Iran is similar to that of S. Korea vs. N. Korea, except they face BMs instead of artillery. Meanwhile, US Attacks ISIS Prison, Killing Dozens of Civilians: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/57-dead-us-led-air-strikes-prison-monitor-1407304836
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All the countries you listed are different from Saudi, as are the circumstances. For one, Saudi's population does not consists of various ethnic groups. A bigger danger and one that led to the creation of the SANG is a coup or power grab from within the royal family or the military; this traditionally has been the main concern for Saudi's rulers. The one thing going for the royals in Saudi is that although the population may not be happy with various things; they're not likely to want to rise up and overthrow the royal family. Same goes with Jordan despite a large part of the population bring Palestinian - things of course were different in 1971.
On paper when it comes to ''breaking up'' there is a bigger chance of that happening in countries such as Lebanon and Bahrain as well as Syria off course. Lebanon [with its Shias,Sunnis, Druze and Christians] as a state was created by the French from Syria and Bahrain has a majority Shia population. A few years ago the Bahrain royal family invited Saudi troops in across the causeway to help keep an eye on Shia demonstrations. Like Lebanon [by the French]; most countries in the region were actually artificial creations [by the British].
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I think Iraq could be in the potential break-up camp although the probability is somewhat less now. Decisions made post WW1 still complicate the present the ME.
Artificial borders created everywhere by outside powers have been disastrous for the locals. The Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan separated Pashtuns on both sides of the border with Afghanistan still officially claiming parts of the Pakistan border.
Just watched footage from Mosul and there 2 things that are rarely seen there [for me at least] : a FAMAS and a ZSU mounted on what appears to be a MTLB.
Just watched footage from Mosul and there 2 things that are rarely seen there [for me at least] : a FAMAS and a ZSU mounted on what appears to be a MTLB.
If you mean a ZU, then that's not rare at all. HMGs and AAA are used to up-gun MT-LBs, BTR-Ds, trucks, and even BMP-1s, all the time.
A ZSU would be a self-propelled anti-air system, like the ZSU-23-4. Mounting that on top of an MT-LB would be tough indeed.
Tsavo Lion
Banned Member
Saudis Demolish Historic Shi'ite Neighborhood, Sparking Unrest Recall Iraqi Shiites under Saddam & their uprising. Saudis may not be successful in their reforms given Wahhabi ideology & conservatism.
Т-50 in Syria? That's possible, to try it against the F-22!
Why the US is preparing a new "chemical" provocation against Syria?
Why Iran and Israel may be on the verge of conflict — in Syria At some point Israel will have to get more heavily involved, & then Russia may be asked by Iran to level the playing field.
Т-50 in Syria? That's possible, to try it against the F-22!
Why the US is preparing a new "chemical" provocation against Syria?
Why Iran and Israel may be on the verge of conflict — in Syria At some point Israel will have to get more heavily involved, & then Russia may be asked by Iran to level the playing field.
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Yes. Sorry I meant a ZSU-23-2 :]A ZSU would be a self-propelled anti-air system, like the ZSU-23-4. Mounting that on top of an MT-LB would be tough indeed.
It's a very common thing.
https://www.google.com/search?q=zu-...v-HUAhWqxFQKHRAjCowQ_AUICigB&biw=1760&bih=862
The Turks might be about to strike the Afrin pocket. There's unofficial information that the Russian MPs keeping the Turks and Kurds apart have left, and Turkish military activity is spiking.
Ðфрин - Ðа грани Ð²Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ - Colonel Cassad
Ðфрин - Ðа грани Ð²Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ - Colonel Cassad