War Against ISIS

Feanor · Apr 15, 2017

gazzzwp said:
So just at the precise moment the Syrian's bomb a rebel position, a 'staged' chemical attack occurs? Sorry that is utterly non-credible.

Leaving aside, for a minute, questions of fact, that's actually quite credible. If one wanted to stage a chemical attack, the best time to do it would be during a government air raid, making it easier to pin it on Assad.

The idea that the rebels even had Sarin gas is also non-credible.

Don't be silly, they could have gotten it from the same stockpiles of weapons Assad uses. There's nothing impossible about some of the Syrian chemical ordinance falling into rebel hands.

Instead of trying to rally the international community to conduct an investigation then why does Russia not undertake it alone? That is of course assuming that they are convinced that they have a real case.

That would require gaining access to the location where the attack occurred. Leaving aside questions of credibility that a solo investigation would inevitable face (especially if it found that the rebels staged the attack), how exactly do you propose Russia conduct an investigation deep in rebel held territory?

If the US or for that matter a NATO operation goes wrong, we tend to know about it because we have free press and to a large extent an openness.

That's a very naive point of view. Bulava SLBM launch failures were also known. So the example is a tad moot. There's plenty we don't know about NATO operations.

A good example was the recent Trident missile fired by a UK sub that failed. We knew about it. If only 6 planes were destroyed we would know about it. Also the Russians would not have been so anxious if the impact had been that insignificant. So again I disagree with your bias.

The 6 planes thing is clearly wrong. However the strike did far less damage to the actual aircraft then one would have expected. To put it another way, the US could have potentially quite a bit done more.

Then why have the Russians complained so vehemently? Think about it. The purpose was to make a point about war crimes. That point has been made.

Was that the point? Or was the point to get domestic critics off his back? The limited nature of the attack (one of the three squadrons of planes on that base wasn't even hit), and the fact that the runway wasn't damaged (in fact the base resumed flight ops less then 24 hours later) all suggest that the attack wasn't intended to undermine Syria's ability to continue the fight. The attack certainly cost Assad a lot of valuable planes but there is already info that Russia may be replacing them with more Su-24s (as Russia phases them out for Su-34s, more and more Fencers become available). Overall this attack to me looks like it was intentionally taylored not to provoke further escalation, to be painful but not too painful, to clearly show the domestic audience that despite appearances and rumors, Trump is not in bed with Putin, and to strengthen the US position in Syria.

2007yellow430 · Apr 17, 2017

I don' t know how real this is, but if it's true, a very sad day for us:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mit-expert-claims-latest-chemical-100819428.html

Art

gf0012-aust · Apr 19, 2017

and the syrians have co-located their jets onto the russian base at Bassel Al-Assad....

Toblerone · Apr 23, 2017

Is ISIS Moving its Capital from Raqqa to Mayadin in Deir ez-Zor?

So according to this and other sources, ISIS have been moving vital members, their families, money and materiel from Raqqa to Mayadin, a city 44km southeast of Deir Ezzor. Is it reasonable to assume that the operation to take Raqqa will be much easier and quicker than the slow grind in Mosul?

Also, who and from which direction would take on this new stronghold?

rjtjrt · Apr 23, 2017

I'm not entirely comfortable with tactics being discussed.
We are talking about real people in a real war, not a video game.

Toblerone · Apr 23, 2017

My question was about strategic plans and geopolitical decisions, not tactics. I am interested in the war against ISIS (which is the name of this thread) and the future of Syria. At some point there will be negotiations and perhaps the creation of federal states. The situation on the ground will dictate the cards in the players' hands.

Sorry to hear you are not entirely comfortable.

rjtjrt · Apr 23, 2017

No offence meant. Pleased you are in sympathy with my comfort level!

gazzzwp · Apr 23, 2017

2007yellow430 said:
I don' t know how real this is, but if it's true, a very sad day for us:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mit-expert-claims-latest-chemical-100819428.html

Art

The only thing that 'muddies the water' with his claim is that he is himself a well known Government critic. Apparently challenging MIT (the establishment he works for) himself it appears that he sets himself up as an anti-authoritarian expert.

I don't think he can be regarded as an unbiased expert.

Feanor · Apr 23, 2017

rjtjrt said:
I'm not entirely comfortable with tactics being discussed.
We are talking about real people in a real war, not a video game.

You're on a forum dedicated to military and defense related questions. Tactics are a routine subject of discussion here. If that's something you're not comfortable with, you're going to run into problems rather quickly.

swerve · Apr 23, 2017

Toblerone said:
Is ISIS Moving its Capital from Raqqa to Mayadin in Deir ez-Zor?

So according to this and other sources, ISIS have been moving vital members, their families, money and materiel from Raqqa to Mayadin, a city 44km southeast of Deir Ezzor. Is it reasonable to assume that the operation to take Raqqa will be much easier and quicker than the slow grind in Mosul?

Also, who and from which direction would take on this new stronghold?

Raqqa's much smaller than Mosul, so should be easier: pre-war population of 220,000 vs 2.5 million. Capturing all the surrounding territory has been rather slow, though.

Mayadin's a smallish town (44000 pre-war). The fall of Raqqa should lead to the lifting of the siege of Deir-ez-Zor, which is still in Syrian government hands. That could make it difficult for the various anti-Daesh groups to decide how to attack Mayadin. I think Assad has other priorities, & Deir-ez-Zor sits across the most convenient routes from SDF territory to Mayadin. Maybe via Iraq.

Feanor · Apr 23, 2017

swerve said:
Raqqa's much smaller than Mosul, so should be easier: pre-war population of 220,000 vs 2.5 million. Capturing all the surrounding territory has been rather slow, though.

Mayadin's a smallish town (44000 pre-war). The fall of Raqqa should lead to the lifting of the siege of Deir-ez-Zor, which is still in Syrian government hands. That could make it difficult for the various anti-Daesh groups to decide how to attack Mayadin. I think Assad has other priorities, & Deir-ez-Zor sits across the most convenient routes from SDF territory to Mayadin. Maybe via Iraq.

I think a spring-summer campaign towards Deyr-ez-Zor was a possibility with Russian aid and the 5th Corps serving as the main fighting force. But the loss of the Palmyra spring-board and the subsequent rebel offensive in Hama have put a fat line through that. At this point it's likely the SAA will piggy-back off of the US-backed push on Raqqa and possibly free Deyr-ez-Zor but it will not be a primary offensive. Something similar to the way the SAA took everything south of Al-Bab while the Turks beat their heads bloody against the ISIS defenses.

Feanor · Apr 25, 2017

ngatimozart · Apr 27, 2017

Gotta be poetic justice this

Let slip the hogs of war - wild pigs thwart ISIS ambush, kill 3 militants

John Fedup · Apr 27, 2017

ngatimozart said:
Gotta be poetic justice this

Let slip the hogs of war - wild pigs thwart ISIS ambush, kill 3 militants

Best news about ISIS in months! War boars , love it.:finger

Toblerone · Apr 27, 2017

Even the pork has got ISIS on the run nowadays

But seriously now, because of the sudden turkish air strikes against kurds, the Raqqa operation is supposedly on hold until the USA get Erdogan on a leash and give some guarantees. The US expressed their "deep concern" so you know they won't do much, a very measured response.

US 'deeply concerned' after Turkey bombs allies in Syria, Iraq - CNNPolitics.com

The Pentagon also released a statement on its concerns about the strikes.
"These ‎airstrikes were not approved by the Counter-ISIS Coalition and led to the unfortunate loss of life of our partner forces in the fight against ISIS, including the Kurdish Peshmerga," Maj. Adrian Rankine-Galloway said.

With wording like "the airstrikes were not approved" and "unfortunate loss of life", I tend to be cynical. I am deeply concerned that the US want him to hold back until the Raqqa operation is over, then the US can put some local arabs in charge and on a pay-roll and then Erdogan can go ahead and bomb the kurds as he pleases.

Oh and Israel did an airstrike on the Damascus international airport. So basically it's a free-for-all shooting gallery where might makes right.

Feanor · Apr 27, 2017

Toblerone said:
Even the pork has got ISIS on the run nowadays

But seriously now, because of the sudden turkish air strikes against kurds, the Raqqa operation is supposedly on hold until the USA get Erdogan on a leash and give some guarantees. The US expressed their "deep concern" so you know they won't do much, a very measured response.

US 'deeply concerned' after Turkey bombs allies in Syria, Iraq - CNNPolitics.com

With wording like "the airstrikes were not approved" and "unfortunate loss of life", I tend to be cynical. I am deeply concerned that the US want him to hold back until the Raqqa operation is over, then the US can put some local arabs in charge and on a pay-roll and then Erdogan can go ahead and bomb the kurds as he pleases.

Oh and Israel did an airstrike on the Damascus international airport. So basically it's a free-for-all shooting gallery where might makes right.

Not quite. Israel seems to have an arrangement with Russia. The details are unclear, but there's definitely something there.

Ranger25 · Apr 30, 2017

Feanor said:
Not quite. Israel seems to have an arrangement with Russia. The details are unclear, but there's definitely something there.

Agreed, the Israelis are in a tough spot as usual. Hezbollah(and Iranian Republican Guards and Guds) in Syria, the mess of groups in Syrian etc. they continue their pragmatic approach to their security Looks like you're correct as usual Feanor

Here's a recent article from the Times discussing the most recent as well as previous meetings/calls between Israeli and Russian officials.

Defense minister to visit Moscow, meet with counterpart | The Times of Israel

Toblerone · Apr 30, 2017

Israelis in a tough spot? To me it seems they are much better off now than before the start of this conflict, Syria is destroyed and may be partitioned. And if the US cut off the border with Iraq, the Shia crescent will be broken and Iran will lose direct access to Lebanon/Hezbollah. The israelis have been supporting hardcore sunni islamist groups to weaken Assad, there is a well publicized incident where they provided medical assistance to fighters, several times they have bombed the SAA to stop operations against the ISIS enclave in their border (using a mortar strike in the middle of nowhere in israeli territory as a pretext, basically a batsignal)

Now they can also bomb Hezbollah targets in Syria and US forces are operating in Syria, why would they want this war to end? In their shoes, I would love to see this hostile country which is a haven for Hezbollah/Iran keep tearing itself apart.

Feanor · May 16, 2017

Feanor · May 21, 2017

The US bombed a Syrian Army formation that contained SAA, Hezbollah, and even an Iraqi militia.

This bombing is a response to a Syrian offensive against the New Syrian Army, a US-backed formation supplied through Jordan. US and British SoF are in the area and the air strike was intended to protect them but it appears that the Syrian advance continues, and Russian Su-30s have been flying in the area with AA missiles. Russia has also declared the air strike as illegal.

It's interesting to note that the Syrian advance initially included SAM coverage in the form of Strela-10 systems, and even AAA in the form of ZSU-23-4s, but it's unclear whether they were actively deployed or merely present. Either way it's an old and generally unimpressive system.

Meanwhile there are now unconfirmed rumors that a detachment from the Russian 31st Para-Assault Bde and some SOF elements are being deployed alongside the local formations, for the offensive in southern Syria. If this is true, US and Russian infantry forces will end up on opposite sides of the front with a serious risk of direct confrontation.

It's important to note that the Assad forces in this case have a strong interest in having a direct land route to Iraq. There are large pro-Iranian militias in Iraq that could and would be utilized in Syria. Right now they have to be airlifted in but a solid land route would change that. Additionally the US has a strong interest in preventing that. The coming months should be fairly tense.

Note most of the photos in the first link are unrelated.

P.S. On an interesting side note, Syrian forces at the Zuluf dam are flying the Russian state flag. Presumably to avoid getting hit by the US. In the past however this was primarily used by Russian military police units deploying to various areas in Aleppo province.

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